重视股性，兼顾结构机会——四季度转债策略 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2025.10.06 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 分析师 李浩时 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080002 lihs@ctsec.com 联系人 郑惠文 zhenghw01@ctsec.com 联系人 柳婧舒 liujs@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《利率 | 9 月宏观数据怎么看？》 2025-10-05 2. 《信用 | 地产债再观察》 2025-09- 30 3. 《信用 | 二永交易机会再现，超长配置 价值回归》 2025-09-28 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ | 1 | 四季度转债展望：重视股性，兼顾结构机会 4 | | --- | --- | | 1.1 | 四季度，转债关键看股性 4 | | 1.2 | 关注科技催化及"十五五"规划带来的潜在机遇 5 | | 1.3 | 股性之外，结构上仍有机会，关注条款、凸性、低估、"化债" 5 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of unity in overcoming challenges and achieving significant goals for the Chinese nation, highlighting the leadership of Xi Jinping in guiding the country towards modernization and national rejuvenation [1] Group 1 - The article states that unity is a powerful force that can conquer all difficulties and is essential for achieving great accomplishments [1] - It mentions that under Xi Jinping's leadership, the Chinese people have tackled long-standing issues and accomplished major tasks that are crucial for the country's future [1] - The article notes the completion of the moderately prosperous society and the achievement of the first centenary goal, marking a new journey towards the second centenary goal [1] Group 2 - The year is identified as the concluding year of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the planning year for the 15th Five-Year Plan, indicating a transition in strategic planning [1] - The article calls for closer unity around the central leadership of Xi Jinping, encouraging proactive efforts to write a more brilliant chapter in Chinese-style modernization [1]

（数据来源：每市科技） 【导读】9月金股最高上涨86.5%，券商陆续发布10月金股名单 作为卖方月度观点的风向标，券商每月"金股"策略报告也在一定程度上反映出机构的共识与分歧。步入10月，券商"金股"如何调整策略？ 据记者统计，当前已有近20家券商发布了10月金股名单。从板块来看，券商较为看好电子、有色金属、游戏等板块。同时，三季报将陆续披露，券商提示 关注业绩有望超预期的方向，如电新、创新药、新消费等行业。 9月金股最高上涨86.5% 复盘9月各券商金股组合表现，每市科技数据显示，10家券商金股组合9月收益超过9%。其中，华安证券的金股组合以20.91%的当月收益排名第一；东莞 证券9月金股表现也可圈可点，以17.04%的收益排在第二；华龙证券、太平洋证券、国元证券等券商紧随其后。 | 序号 | 券商名称 | 当月收益 | 今年累计收益 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | l | 华安证券 | 20. 91% | 68. 46% | | 2 | 东莞证券 | 17.04% | 58. 32% | | 3 | 华龙证券 | 15.97% | 54.66% | | র্ব | 太平洋证券 ...

据记者统计，当前已有近20家券商发布了10月金股名单。从板块来看，券商较为看好电子、有色金属、 游戏等板块。同时，三季报将陆续披露，券商提示关注业绩有望超预期的方向，如电新、创新药、新消 费等行业。 来源：中国基金报 作为卖方月度观点的风向标，券商每月"金股"策略报告也在一定程度上反映出机构的共识与分歧。步入 10月，券商"金股"如何调整策略？ 华金证券建议继续逢低配置：一是政策和产业趋势上行的电子（消费电子、半导体）、通信（算力）、 机械设备（机器人）、有色金属（稀有金属、贵金属）、传媒（游戏）、计算机（AI应用）等行业； 二是基本面可能有所改善的电新（固态电池、储能、风电）、创新药、新消费、食品、军工等行业。 芯片、新能源、有色板块受关注 9月金股最高上涨86.5% 复盘9月各券商金股组合表现，每市科技数据显示，10家券商金股组合9月收益超过9%。其中，华安证 券的金股组合以20.91%的当月收益排名第一；东莞证券9月金股表现也可圈可点，以17.04%的收益排在 第二；华龙证券、太平洋证券、国元证券等券商紧随其后。 | 序号 | 券商名称 | 当月收益 | 今年累计收益 | | --- | --- | - ...

（原标题："稳增长"政策工具箱会否在四季度开启？） 2025年第三季度，全球主要股指涨跌幅榜单呈现出鲜明的区域特征：亚洲市场全面领跑，而中国A股则包揽涨幅榜前三。创业板指以50.4%的季度 涨幅居全球首位，科创50指数、深证成指分别上涨49.02%和29.25%，位列第二、第三。沪深300指数上涨17.9%，位居第八；上证综指上涨 12.73%，恒生指数上涨11.56%。从地域分布看，涨幅前十四名均为亚洲股指，其中A股占据五席，港股两席，台股、日股、韩股及东南亚市场各 有一席入围。 这一轮市场表现的背后，是流动性环境变化、产业政策驱动与外部金融条件改善共同作用的结果。尽管经济基本面仍显疲弱，8月消费、生产与投 资数据普遍偏冷，市场普遍预期三季度GDP增速约为4.8%，信达期货研报预测，新的稳增长政策有必要出台。 9月29日，国家发改委宣布将推出规模达5000亿元的新型政策性金融工具，全部用于补充重大项目的资本金。信达期货研报认为，该工具的资金来 源可能包括央行再贷款、提高信贷额度或直接赋予发债权限。此举被视为应对当前有效需求不足、推动实物工作量形成的关键举措。发改委明确 表示，将加快资金投放进度，并督促地方推 ...

Group 1: 15th Five-Year Plan Outlook - The primary direction for industrial structure adjustment during the 15th Five-Year Plan is transformation and upgrading, with continued support for technological innovation [1] - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize, with new product development and pricing models emerging in core cities [1] - The home appliance industry will focus on smart, green, and globalized policies, aligning with future manufacturing directions [1] - The construction industry will emphasize overseas expansion and smart construction [1] - The importance of strategic resources will increase, benefiting the prices of non-ferrous metals [1] - Cement and glass industries will face strict capacity controls, focusing on profit recovery rather than just revenue [1] - The chemical industry will see a shift towards replacing outdated capacity, with a positive outlook for chemical exports [1] - The new energy sector is expected to experience favorable supply-demand dynamics, with significant growth in wind and solar power installations [1] - The coal industry will see increased resource scarcity and improved performance as prices rise [1] - The technology sector will benefit from government subsidies for AI capabilities and applications [1] - The cultural industry may see relaxed regulations for overseas expansion, positively impacting supply-side recovery [1] Group 2: AI and Computing Sector Insights - Breakthroughs in computing power and AI applications are expected to lead to a surge in the sector by 2026, with companies achieving over 10% revenue from AI [2] - Despite short-term pressures from subsidy reductions, long-term support for domestic semiconductor replacements remains strong [2] - The internet and cloud computing sectors are experiencing a positive cycle of investment and operational efficiency, with a focus on global entertainment and self-consumption [2] - The telecommunications sector is concentrating on 6G and satellite internet development, with opportunities in the IDC supply chain [2] - E-commerce is currently in a phase of competition for existing market share, but AI products are expected to offset negative impacts from subsidy reductions [2] Group 3: Q3 Earnings Outlook - The reduction in national subsidies is expected to pressure earnings in light industry, consumer electronics, and home appliances [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector is anticipated to see continued improvement in Q3 earnings due to rising domestic metal prices [3] - The pharmaceutical sector is not expected to face severe impacts from tariff policies, contrary to some investor fears [3] - The agricultural sector is projected to see weak growth, particularly in pig prices, through Q1 2026 [3] - The light industry is under pressure from both overseas demand and domestic subsidy reductions, leading to continued earnings challenges [3] - The consumer electronics sector may experience marginal declines in growth following subsidy cuts [3] - The chemical industry is expected to achieve stable growth, with a target of over 5% annual increase in value added by 2025-2026 [3] - The food and beverage sector is facing weak demand, but market expectations are low, which may provide some support [3] - The military industry is projected to see overall revenue and earnings growth, with ongoing attention to the 15th Five-Year Plan's impact [3]

时政新闻眼丨在今年国庆招待会上，习近平重点谈到这两件大事 9月30日，国庆前一天，习近平总书记先后出席两场重要活动。上午，出席烈士纪念日向人民英雄敬献 花篮仪式。晚上，出席庆祝中华人民共和国成立76周年招待会并发表重要讲话。总书记回望历史、擘画 未来，重点谈到两件大事。《时政新闻眼》为你解读。 0:00 视频：庆祝中华人民共和国成立76周年招待会在京举行 习近平发表重要讲话 来源：央视综合 01 国庆前夕 两场活动 今年9月30日，是第12个烈士纪念日。习近平总书记连续第12年在同一天出席向人民英雄敬献花篮仪 式。 △烈士纪念日向人民英雄敬献花篮仪式现场。(总台记者李晋拍摄) 在上午的烈士纪念日向人民英雄敬献花篮仪式上，也有在京功勋荣誉表彰奖励获得者代表的身影。 天安门广场上，人民英雄纪念碑前，红旗猎猎。白菊等鲜花组成的18个花环摆放在纪念碑北侧。深沉悠 远的烈士纪念日号角表达对英烈的深情追思。 △白菊等鲜花组成的18个花环。(总台央视记者刘琦拍摄) 18名礼兵稳稳抬起花篮，缓步走向人民英雄纪念碑，将花篮摆放在纪念碑基座上。 总书记等党和国家领导人登上纪念碑基座，在花篮前驻足凝视。总书记迈步上前，仔细整理花篮 ...

天安门广场盛装亮相，长安街华灯璀璨。上个月，这里隆重举行了纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西 斯战争胜利80周年大会，三军列阵，钢铁洪流奔涌。从"九三"的荣光到"十一"的欢歌，纪念的是历史， 映照的是现实。同一片天空下，山河无恙，阖家团聚，这恰是当年先辈们梦想的模样。 今年是"十四五"规划收官之年。五年来，日新月异的中国，用实绩标注高质量发展的新高度。传统产业 升级，新兴产业壮大，未来产业超前布局。经济发展、科技进步、民生改善的丰硕成果，正实打实地转 化为群众的获得感和幸福感。国的宏大叙事，照亮万家灯火中的寻常日子；家的柴米油盐，共同绘就美 好生活的壮丽画卷。 山河焕新颜，家国共此时。双节承载着家国相依的深厚逻辑，蕴含着九州同梦的美好愿景。站在"十四 五"规划收官与"十五五"新征程开启的历史交汇点，人人争做弄潮儿，共同汇聚起推动国家前行的磅礴 力量。 新华社北京10月1日电 题：双节同辉 携手同心 新华社记者潘晔 时值乙巳金秋，国庆假期恰逢中秋佳节。这是时序赋予的天成巧思，也是独属于中国人的浪漫寄思—— 双节同辉聚合力，携手同心谱华章。 缤纷绚丽的巨型花坛演绎盛世华彩，明艳的"中国红"在街头巷尾飘扬，"生日快乐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the critical juncture of the "14th Five-Year Plan" (15th Five-Year Plan) in the context of global order restructuring, economic transformation, and China's modernization efforts, emphasizing the need for innovative planning and strategic foresight to navigate these challenges [2][38]. International Environment Trends - Trend 1: The acceleration of the "East Rising, West Declining" power structure, with emerging economies gaining influence, necessitating a focus on self-innovation in key areas like chips and energy in the planning process [5]. - Trend 2: The global economy is characterized by low growth, high debt, high inflation, and a shift towards low-carbon transformation, requiring structural reforms to mitigate debt risks and enhance supply chain resilience [6]. - Trend 3: The advent of digital civilization and industrial revolution marks a critical point, with data becoming a core productivity factor, necessitating the establishment of a dual pillar system of "data sovereignty + technology standards" [7]. - Trend 4: The emphasis on security and development, with a shift in global supply chains towards safety, necessitating a focus on domestic production and regional alternatives in strategic sectors [8]. Domestic Environment Dimensions - Dimension 1: The need for deep reforms to drive domestic demand upgrades, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than speed [9]. - Dimension 2: The "carbon peak" initiative driving green and low-carbon growth, positioning the dual carbon goals as a key economic growth driver [10]. - Dimension 3: Addressing "bottleneck" technologies through a new system that combines state-driven and market-driven innovation [12]. - Dimension 4: The digitization of social governance to reshape public service models, leveraging AI and smart city initiatives [13]. Planning Framework Structure - Focus 1: Emphasizing "four-dimensional coordination" to enhance the strategic depth of planning [16]. - Focus 2: Aligning the 15th Five-Year Plan with the 2035 long-term goals, ensuring coherence in development strategies [18]. - Focus 3: Establishing a baseline of safety and resilience across various sectors, including finance and industry [19]. - Focus 4: Integrating digital and physical spaces in urban planning to enhance resource allocation and governance [20][21]. Evaluation and Assessment - Emphasis on conducting six major assessments, including fiscal capacity, industrial competitiveness, population-service matching, resource carrying capacity, policy effectiveness, and risk resilience [22][23][24][25][26]. Strategic Mapping - Development of four key maps: strategic goal orientation, regional spatial planning, industrial upgrade pathways, and resource element layout [27][28][29][30]. Implementation Support - Focus on compiling a list of strategic deployments and conducting specialized research in key areas such as investment attraction and public service enhancement [31][32]. Innovative Planning Methods - The need for multi-level connection mechanisms, integration of big data and AI technologies, and the creation of immersive, interactive planning systems to enhance transparency and effectiveness [35][36][38].

今年是"十四五"规划收官之年。五年来，日新月异的中国，用实绩标注高质量发展的新高度。传统产业 升级，新兴产业壮大，未来产业超前布局。经济发展、科技进步、民生改善的丰硕成果，正实打实地转 化为群众的获得感和幸福感。国的宏大叙事，照亮万家灯火中的寻常日子；家的柴米油盐，共同绘就美 好生活的壮丽画卷。 山河焕新颜，家国共此时。双节承载着家国相依的深厚逻辑，蕴含着九州同梦的美好愿景。站在"十四 五"规划收官与"十五五"新征程开启的历史交汇点，人人争做弄潮儿，共同汇聚起推动国家前行的磅礴 力量。 时值乙巳金秋，国庆假期恰逢中秋佳节。这是时序赋予的天成巧思，也是独属于中国人的浪漫寄思—— 双节同辉聚合力，携手同心谱华章。 缤纷绚丽的巨型花坛演绎盛世华彩，明艳的"中国红"在街头巷尾飘扬，"生日快乐""为祖国比心"刷屏朋 友圈……当"国的庆典"与"家的团圆"在丰收时节相遇，人们用各种方式表达着对祖国的热爱和祝福。个 人与民族、传统与现代，在此刻同心共振。 天安门广场盛装亮相，长安街华灯璀璨。上个月，这里隆重举行了纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西 斯战争胜利80周年大会，三军列阵，钢铁洪流奔涌。从"九三"的荣光到"十一"的欢歌 ...