专题：北京公募基金高质量发展系列活动 新时代、新基金、新价值 近日，在北京证监局指导下，北京证券业协会携手辖区公募机构启动了"北京公募基金高质量发展系列 活动"。这场以"新时代・新基金・新价值"为主题的专业行动，正在将投资者教育与保护工作推向新的 深度。作为首都公募基金行业的一员，中邮基金积极响应号召，其权益投资团队近期重点关注高端制造 与国产替代领域的投资机遇，认为这些领域正在孕育着一批未来资本市场的"新蓝筹"企业。 展望未来，中邮基金权益团队认为高端制造与国产替代领域的投资前景广阔。国产替代不是短期主题， 而是长期趋势，将催生一批具有核心竞争力的中国企业。 当然，投资者也需要认识到，高端制造与国产替代领域的投资同样伴随着风险。技术迭代速度快、研发 投入回报不确定、市场竞争加剧等因素，都可能影响企业的盈利能力。在资本市场上，相关公司的估值 波动较大，也需要投资者具备较强的风险承受能力。 随着国产产品在各领域的市场占有率持续提升，一批具有核心技术、强大市场竞争力和持续创新能力的 中国高端制造企业正在崛起。它们或许今天的规模还不大，但明天可能成为资本市场的中流砥柱。在北 京公募基金行业持续发展的今天，中邮基金等 ...

转债周策略 20251012 临近强赎转债的交易策略 2025 年 10 月 12 日 ➢ 临近强赎转债的交易策略 投资者当前对股票市场预期较高，或更偏好持有股性转债博取更大的弹性。跟踪 和分析转债市场强赎执行率和相关的价格信号或可帮助投资者优化股性转债的 投资思路。 从近期的强赎执行率来看，三季度转债强赎执行率基本处于历史高位（25 年 1 月 样本数量较低参考意义不大），较多上市公司在强赎触发后希望快速促转股；发 行人较强的转股意愿同样可以从下修概率看出：三季度下修概率逐月提升，下修 会加大转债的稀释率，因此上市公司往往不轻易提议下修，近期下修概率上升或 说明上市公司希望在市场火热的窗口期快速促转股。 上市公司转股意愿和转债强赎概率的上升提示投资者对股性转债的交易节奏需 更为谨慎，当市场交易转债的强赎意愿时，转债溢价率可能提前回落。我们统计 了 6 月至今，各触发强赎转债样本的转股溢价率变动情况，归纳强赎触发前后的 转债投资者行为： （1） 随着强赎触发临近，转债溢价率出现一定承压，体现了投资者的谨慎情 绪，其中，提议强赎的转债溢价率下降幅度较为明显。 （2） 随着强赎触发的临近，不强赎样本的平均转股溢价 ...

展望2025年四季度，A股市场有望在政策支撑与流动性充裕的驱动下延续震荡上行趋势。多家券商分析 显示，在宏观政策坚持"稳中求进"总基调、内外资金持续流入的背景下，市场整体趋势依然积极。从风 格上看，四季度A股风格有望更加均衡，但科技成长板块仍被机构视为核心主线。 海外资金方面，美联储降息与人民币汇率回升正吸引全球资本流入中国。美联储降息对国内最大的影响 在于推升人民币汇率，进而引发全球资本流入。 市场趋势：震荡向上，慢牛延续 多家券商对四季度A股走势持相对积极态度，认为上涨行情尚未结束，市场有望继续挑战新平台。四季 度A股可能延续慢牛趋势，但波动率或加大，整体在宽幅震荡中逐级抬升。 市场向上的驱动主要来自三方面：盈利结构性回升，出口韧性、制造业投资改善及"金九银十"消费旺季 来临，推动A股盈利四季度继续筑顶。政策想象空间，10月中旬后市场将转向对2026年经济与政策的预 期，政策想象空间有望打开。流动性改善，居民加大权益资产配置、基金发行回暖及外资回流将继续为 市场提供增量资金。 资金动向：内外资金共同流入 四季度A市场流动性有望持续改善。国内方面，居民资产配置正向权益类资产转移。随着实际利率下 行，居民资产 ...

Group 1: Financial Engineering Research - The stock, bond, and gold markets showed positive, negative, and positive signals respectively as of the end of September 2025 [2] - The macro environment forecast for Q4 indicates inflation [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Equipment Industry - The U.S. House of Representatives' special committee issued a report detailing sanctions against China's semiconductor industry, suggesting measures like export controls and technology blockades to maintain U.S. dominance [4][20] - The report indicates that five major semiconductor equipment companies (AMAT, ASML, KLA, LAM, TEL) account for 80%-85% of the global market share, with China expected to spend $38 billion on semiconductor equipment in 2024 [5][21] - Despite challenges, there is optimism for domestic semiconductor equipment companies to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies, with recommended stocks including North China Huachuang and Tuo Jing Technology [4][20] Group 3: Aviation Industry - The demand for air travel surged during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with domestic passenger volume increasing by over 3% year-on-year [8][29] - The aviation industry is expected to see profitability growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong public and commercial demand [9][30] - If public demand continues to recover, the Chinese aviation industry could enter a "super cycle" by 2026, with recommendations to invest in high-quality airline networks [32] Group 4: Biomedicine Industry - Heartai Medical is a leader in congenital heart disease intervention devices, with a 32.4% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2025 [13][14] - The company is advancing biodegradable occluders, which are gaining popularity due to their clinical advantages over traditional metal devices [14] - The market for heart valve interventions in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 69.8% from 2021 to 2025 [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor with a target price raised to HKD 119 from HKD 53 [1][5]. Core Views - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on Huahong's "integrated" strategic layout, emphasizing the rapid maturation of the domestic AI chip ecosystem and its impact on wafer foundry demand [2][3]. - The report highlights the potential benefits of the BIS regulations, which may accelerate supply chain localization and enhance Huahong's technological capabilities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - The report estimates that the advanced process foundry demand from Chinese design companies will reach USD 9.5 billion in 2024, with 70% of this demand currently met by TSMC [1]. - The acceleration of AI chip iterations, particularly from Huawei's Ascend series, is expected to significantly expand domestic foundry demand [1][2]. Supply Side - The new BIS regulations will extend restrictions to subsidiaries with over 50% ownership, which may lead to tighter policies and further localization of the supply chain [3]. - Huahong's acquisition of Huali Microelectronics is projected to enhance its core business and add 38,000 wafers per month of 65/55nm and 40nm process capacity [2]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a 3% increase in net profit for 2025, reaching USD 60 million, followed by a 48% increase in 2026 to USD 89 million, and a 16% increase in 2027 to USD 103 million [4][8]. - Revenue is expected to decline by 12.34% in 2024 but rebound with a growth of 20.81% in 2025 and 20.98% in 2026 [8][22]. Valuation - The target price adjustment to HKD 119 corresponds to a 4.2x 2025E price-to-book ratio, compared to a peer average of 3.86x [4][10]. - The report emphasizes Huahong's unique position as a leader in domestic specialty processes amid the accelerating trend of semiconductor localization in China [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a pullback after reaching new highs, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both declining. Despite this, there are still optimistic projections for future growth, particularly in the technology sector, which is expected to attract investor interest [1][2]. Market Performance - As of October 8, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.48% to 26,829.46 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.55% to 6,514.19 points. The indices had previously reached new highs on October 2, with the Hang Seng Index peaking at 27,381.84 points [1][2]. - Year-to-date, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index have increased by 33.75% and 45.79%, respectively [2]. Fund Performance - Several Hong Kong-themed funds have shown outstanding performance, with some achieving returns as high as 155% in the first three quarters of the year. Notable funds include the Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Selected Mixed Fund and the Bank of China Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical Mixed Fund, which reported returns of 155.14% and 126.55%, respectively [3][2]. Sector Focus - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has gained significant attention, with the China Securities Index tracking the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Pharmaceutical Index showing a year-to-date increase of 118.52% [3]. - The long-term outlook for the Hong Kong market remains positive, particularly in core areas such as the internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, and medical biotechnology, which are expected to attract capital inflows [3][4]. Investment Strategy - Future investment opportunities in Hong Kong-themed funds are anticipated, especially those focusing on new economy, technology, and innovation sectors. Investors are advised to prioritize reasonably valued assets with clear growth potential and consider a systematic investment approach [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a pullback after reaching new highs, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both declining, but there remains potential for upward movement, particularly in the technology sector [1][2][3]. Market Performance - As of October 8, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.48% to 26,829.46 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.55% to 6,514.19 points [2]. - The Hang Seng Index had previously reached a year-to-date high of 27,381.84 points on October 2, marking a 1.61% increase on that day [2]. - Year-to-date, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index have risen by 33.75% and 45.79%, respectively [4]. Fund Performance - Several Hong Kong-themed funds have shown outstanding performance, with some achieving returns of up to 155% in the first three quarters of the year [1][4]. - Specific funds, such as the Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Selected Mixed Fund, reported returns of 155.14% and 155.09% for different share classes, ranking third and fourth in the market [4]. Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly in areas like AI and semiconductor industries, is expected to remain a focal point for investors, with a potential "volatile upward" trend led by industry leaders [1][5][6]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has also seen significant gains, with the China Securities Index tracking the Hong Kong Innovative Drug Index showing a year-to-date increase of 118.52% [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Hong Kong market still holds attractiveness due to its focus on core sectors like internet, innovative drugs, and medical biotechnology, with expectations for valuation recovery and capital inflow in the fourth quarter [5][6]. - The Hang Seng Index faces resistance above the 30,000-point mark, which historically has led to significant corrections, necessitating close monitoring of market movements [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a pullback after reaching new highs, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both declining, but there remains potential for upward movement, particularly in the technology sector [1][3][4]. Market Performance - As of October 8, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.48% to 26,829.46 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.55% to 6,514.19 points [3]. - The Hang Seng Index had previously reached a year-to-date high of 27,381.84 points on October 2, marking a 1.61% increase on that day [3]. - Year-to-date performance shows the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index have risen by 33.75% and 45.79%, respectively [5]. Fund Performance - Several Hong Kong-themed funds have performed exceptionally well, with some achieving returns of up to 155% in the first three quarters of the year [5]. - Specific funds, such as the Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Selected Mixed Fund, reported returns of 155.14% and 155.09% for different share classes [5]. Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly in areas like AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, is expected to remain a focal point for investors [4][6]. - The China A-share market's performance during the holiday period contributed to capital inflows into the Hong Kong market, leading to short-term gains [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Hong Kong market still has upward potential, especially if the Federal Reserve maintains a low-interest-rate environment and if Chinese assets remain relatively undervalued [4][6]. - The market is anticipated to continue its valuation recovery, with the technology sector being a key area of interest for future investments [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Yuya Semiconductor has initiated its IPO application on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, aiming to raise 1.224 billion yuan for projects related to AI and operational funding [1] Company Overview - Yuya Semiconductor specializes in the research, production, and sales of advanced packaging materials and products, being one of the earliest domestic companies to produce IC packaging substrates [1] - The company's main products include IC packaging substrates and embedded packaging modules, with applications in RF front-end, high-performance computing, and power management [1][2] Financial Performance - The company's projected revenues from 2022 to the first half of 2025 are 1.667 billion yuan, 1.705 billion yuan, 1.796 billion yuan, and 811.73 million yuan, respectively [2] - Net profits for the same periods are expected to be 415 million yuan, 188 million yuan, 215 million yuan, and 91.47 million yuan [2] Industry Context - The global IC packaging substrate market is dominated by manufacturers from Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, with the top ten companies holding over 80% market share [2] - Domestic companies, including Yuya Semiconductor, are experiencing growth in sales, but their global market share remains low, indicating significant development potential [2] Technological Position - Yuya Semiconductor's embedded packaging technology is considered advanced, with the company being one of the few globally to achieve mass production of embedded packaging products since 2017 [3] - The company aims to leverage opportunities in AI and communication technology revolutions, focusing on domestic substitution of semiconductor materials and enhancing the localization of mid-to-high-end IC packaging substrates [3]

Group 1 - The electronic industry is entering a peak season with the launch of innovative products such as AI smartphones, AI PCs, and AI glasses, leading to a potential recovery in demand due to seasonal factors and government subsidies [1] - The semiconductor sector is experiencing strong demand for computing infrastructure, benefiting advanced semiconductors, with high capital expenditure in cloud AI driving the demand for high-end GPUs, HBM storage, and advanced packaging [1] - The domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry is deepening, with sustained demand for computing power, indicating a high level of industry prosperity [1] Group 2 - The integrated circuit ETF (159546) tracks the integrated circuit index (932087), which selects listed companies involved in semiconductor design, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and related materials and equipment to reflect the overall performance of the integrated circuit industry [1] - The constituent stocks of the index are characterized by high technological content and growth potential, representing the development level and trends of China's integrated circuit industry, with a focus on electronic and information technology sectors [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI All-Share Integrated Circuit ETF Initiator Link C (020227) and Guotai CSI All-Share Integrated Circuit ETF Initiator Link A (020226) [1]