投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 21 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局偏弱，钢矿延续震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.07%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 螺纹需求有所好转，但持续性存疑，相反供应也在回升，供需双增局面 下螺纹基本面表现依旧不佳，钢价继续承压，相对利好的是估值偏低， 预计走势延续低位震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来看， 热卷供需格局有所好转，库存再度去化，但供应压力未解，且需求韧性 存疑，基本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing slight declines in both spot and futures prices, influenced by various factors including inventory levels, demand fluctuations, and external economic conditions [1][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - On November 21, the domestic steel market saw a slight decline, with major futures contracts primarily trending downwards, except for a minor increase in rebar prices [1][5]. - The average prices for various steel products showed slight increases, with rebar at 3239 CNY/ton, up by 15 CNY, and wire rod at 3603 CNY/ton, up by 12 CNY [6][8]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - India has initiated a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on low ash metallurgical coke from several countries, including China, which is expected to negatively impact steel prices [2]. - Heavy pollution alerts in Shandong and Huai Bei have led to emergency measures that may tighten supply in the steel industry, potentially supporting steel prices in the short term [3]. - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December is low, which may strengthen the dollar and suppress commodity prices, including steel [4]. Group 3: Raw Material Market - The iron ore market is under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand, with prices expected to remain weak in the coming week [11]. - The coke market is stable, but demand is weak due to reduced steel production, leading to limited cost support for steel prices [11]. - Scrap steel prices are declining due to reduced procurement by steel mills and increased inventory among traders, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall sentiment in the steel market remains cautious, with expectations of price fluctuations between weak and strong trends in the coming week, with a potential range of 10-30 CNY [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Beiyuan Group, has indicated that the recent withdrawal of BIS certification requirements for PTA, POY, FDY, and PVC products by the Indian Ministry of Commerce will have a minimal impact on its PVC exports to India, as the company had already prepared for the certification process before the policy was rescinded [1] Group 1 - The company's primary product exported to India is PVC [1] - The company had actively prepared for the BIS certification requirements for PVC before the policy was withdrawn, indicating proactive measures taken [1] - The impact of the Indian anti-dumping policy on the company is currently negligible as it has not been formally implemented [1] Group 2 - The company plans to continue monitoring developments related to the Indian anti-dumping policy [1] - The company aims to leverage its strengths in product quality and customer service to further consolidate and expand its market presence in India [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 13, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures declined slightly compared to the previous day's closing prices, hitting new lows since October 23 during intraday trading. The futures of coke and coking coal dropped significantly due to coal supply - guarantee policies. Although the spot market still has support, considering the large increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance and the significant growth in coking coal inventories of independent coking plants and ports, there may be downward pressure on prices due to oversupply. It is expected that the futures of coke and coking coal still need to digest the strong negative factors from the news, and it is advisable to try high - selling hedging or investment strategies. Attention should be paid to the implementation of supply - guarantee policies and the rhythm of spot price declines [5][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On November 13, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures, J2601 and JM2601, first declined and then rebounded. J2601 closed at 1686 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 13,768 lots and an open interest of 37,775 lots, a decrease of 164 lots. JM2601 closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 0.29%, with a trading volume of 572,483 lots and an open interest of 592,106 lots, a decrease of 991 lots. In the black - series futures, the long - short positions of the top 20 in RB2601, HC2601, SS2601, J2601, JM2601, and I2601 contracts also changed [5][6]. - **Spot Market**: On November 13, the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 1620 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in some regions was stable, with a 40 - yuan increase in Linfen [8]. 3.2 Outlook for the Future - **Policy**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, requiring all regions and relevant enterprises to ensure stable energy production and supply, improve the performance of medium - and long - term coal contracts, and focus on ensuring coal demand in northern heating areas [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Due to continuous losses for four weeks, the coke output of independent coking enterprises dropped to a new low since late March. Although coking plants and steel mills continued to reduce coke inventories, port coke inventories have increased in the past five weeks. Since October 25, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly, and the coking coal inventories of 230 independent coking plants and ports have also increased [10]. 3.3 Industry News - **Water Conservancy Construction**: From January to October this year, China completed 1.00947 trillion yuan in water conservancy construction investment, implemented 46,000 water conservancy projects, and started 28,000 new projects, creating 2.484 million jobs and paying 47.06 billion yuan in wages [12]. - **Energy in Yunnan**: From January to September, Yunnan's energy department promoted the integrated development of "source - network - load - storage", driving a 11.3% increase in coal production, a 7.4% increase in crude oil processing volume, a 6.2% increase in refined oil production, and a 17% increase in natural gas consumption [12]. - **Anhui Kuangneng**: From November 10 - 12, Anhui Kuangneng held a production and operation work symposium for the coal sector, summarizing this year's work and planning next year's key tasks [12][13]. - **Concrete Industry**: Affected by the real - estate market adjustment and infrastructure investment slowdown, the demand in the cement industry is weak, and prices are low. However, prices are expected to recover to some extent under the anti - involution trend [13]. - **Shanxi Coking Coal**: The company's main products are high - quality coking coals, and it has established long - term strategic partnerships with many large steel enterprises. It also has a power generation business with a power - generation capacity of 4.32 million kilowatts per year [13]. - **Other News**: There were coal mine accidents in Henan; Lu'an Huaneng announced its coal production and sales in October; Fangda Special Steel is cooperating with CATL; Handan launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution; Shaanxi's industrial production and consumption of coal, natural gas, and oil showed different trends; Inner Mongolia's coal production was stable, and its new - energy installed capacity increased; Newcastle Port and Indian coal production and exports had certain changes; OPEC predicted an oversupply in the oil market in 2026; India imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese steel [11][12][13][14][15]. 3.4 Data Overview The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization of coking plants and steel mills, iron - water production, coke and coking coal inventories, and the basis of futures contracts [18][20][25][27][28][29].

Summary of Silicon Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The silicon industry is experiencing a significant increase in production capacity, with mono-silicon capacity expected to reach 6.8 million tons by early 2025, a nearly 25% increase from 5.4 million tons at the beginning of 2024 [1][2] - Domestic demand has not kept pace with this increase in capacity, leading to an imbalance in supply and demand, resulting in continuous price declines below the full cost line for companies [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Price and Production Management**: - DMC prices are currently around 11,000-11,500 RMB/ton, with expectations to rise above 12,000 RMB/ton following upcoming meetings [5] - Companies are considering rotational production cuts to maintain operational rates between 60%-70% to meet domestic and export demand [5][6] - **Anti-Dumping Measures**: - Short-term anti-dumping measures are primarily driven by voluntary actions from companies, with potential for future guidance from associations or national bodies, similar to the multi-crystalline silicon industry [6] - The industry is facing significant price pressure, with profits currently at 100-200 RMB/ton, necessitating close monitoring of policy changes and market dynamics [6][12] - **Market Sentiment**: - Recent stock performance of companies like Hesheng, Dongyue, and Xin'an has shown an upward trend, reflecting market optimism regarding anti-dumping measures and potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics [7] Emerging Applications - **New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) and Robotics**: - NEVs and robotics are identified as key growth areas for silicon applications, with demand growth rates projected at 5%-6% annually [8] - In NEVs, silicon is used in battery encapsulation adhesives and other components, with demand per vehicle increasing significantly [17] - **Real Estate Market Impact**: - The real estate sector, despite recent contractions, still accounts for 40%-50% of silicon demand, with expectations of gradual recovery and annual growth of 4%-5% in the coming years [9] - **Electronics and Electrical Sector**: - The electronics sector is expected to see a slight increase in silicon consumption, currently accounting for 23%-24% of total demand, driven by government subsidies [10] - **Photovoltaic Industry**: - Although domestic photovoltaic demand has decreased, global demand is rising, particularly in overseas markets, which is expected to offset domestic declines [11] Supply Chain Challenges - The industry faces challenges with excess supply due to new capacity not matching consumption, leading to inventory build-up [12][15] - Without anti-dumping or production limitation measures, the risk of price competition remains high, potentially lasting until 2026 [12] Future Capacity and Market Dynamics - Planned new capacity additions of 400,000 tons in 2025, with further expansions anticipated in subsequent years, could impact market dynamics if new entrants disrupt current agreements [14] - The exit of overseas chemical plants presents opportunities for Chinese companies, but quality improvements are necessary for full market replacement [18] Global Trade and Demand Trends - Global trade flows are expected to balance over time, with Chinese companies gradually closing quality gaps through technological advancements [19] - The overall outlook for the silicon industry remains cautiously optimistic, with potential for growth driven by both domestic recovery and international demand [15][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **螺纹钢**: The main contract price of rebar showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and both trading volume and open interest remained stable. In the current situation, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand. The pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the cost still provides support. In the short - term, the price will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - **热轧卷板**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the industrial contradictions of hot - rolled coil remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices continue to be under pressure. However, the cost side still provides support. In the short - term, the price will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - **铁矿石**: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.20%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the iron ore price will continue to be under pressure and show a weak operation trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Energy Supply for Heating Season**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, requiring all regions and relevant enterprises to ensure stable energy production and supply, and improve the performance of medium - and long - term energy contracts, especially focusing on coal supply for northern heating areas [7]. - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: From January to October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. In October, the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 51.6% of the total vehicle sales for the first time [8]. - **Anti - Dumping Ruling**: On November 10, 2025, Thailand's anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sub - committee decided to continue to impose a 5 - year anti - dumping duty on cold - rolled stainless steel products from China. The anti - dumping duty for Ningbo Baoxin Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. is 8.5%, and for other Chinese producers/ exporters is 33.32%. Some producers/ exporters are exempted from the duty [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,228 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) was 3,308 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan billet (Q235) was 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 773 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 798 yuan/ton, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia was 10.36 yuan/ton, down 0.09 yuan/ton, and from Brazil was 23.41 yuan/ton, down 0.12 yuan/ton. The SGX swap (current month) was 103.29, up 0.70, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 103.00, up 0.95 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,025 | - 0.33 | 753,110 | - 296,403 | 1,923,701 | - 32 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 3,242 | 0.03 | 324,368 | - 50,997 | 1,326,892 | - 19,179 | | Iron Ore | 763.0 | 0.20 | 262,391 | - 65,052 | 530,352 | - 11,250 | 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report provides charts on the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, which can be used to analyze the inventory trends of steel products [16][17][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts on the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines are provided, which are helpful for analyzing the supply and demand situation of iron ore [21][22][27]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts on the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate of independent electric furnaces are provided, which can be used to understand the production and operation status of steel mills [29][30][31]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: Both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 4.05 tons, and demand decreased by 13.66 tons. The fundamentals have not improved, and inventory reduction pressure is large. Although the cost provides support, the price will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [38]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 5.40 tons, and demand decreased by 17.59 tons. Industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices are under pressure. The cost provides support, and the price will continue to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory has increased significantly. Ore demand continues to decline, while supply remains at a high level. The price will continue to be under pressure and show a weak trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [39].

Core Viewpoint - Mexico's Ministry of Economy has announced an initial ruling on anti-dumping duties for children's bicycles originating from China, increasing the duty from $13.12 per unit to $57.19 per unit, while continuing the anti-dumping review investigation [1] Group 1 - The anti-dumping tax for Chinese children's bicycles has been raised significantly [1] - The new duty rate is set at $57.19 per unit, a substantial increase from the previous rate [1] - The investigation will continue, indicating ongoing scrutiny of trade practices related to these products [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in a narrow range. The supply will increase as maintenance work is completed and new production capacities come online, while the demand is moderate, and the export situation is weakening. The high inventory and futures warehouse receipts also put pressure on the price [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply is increasing as new maintenance and capacity increase co - exist. The demand from the alumina sector is stable but affected by environmental control, and non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken. However, the potential new alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,638 yuan/ton (-32), with an East China basis of -58 yuan/ton (+12) and a South China basis of -8 yuan/ton (+2) [1]. - Spot price: East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,580 yuan/ton (-20), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,630 yuan/ton (-30) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The price of semi - coke is 740 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -763 yuan/ton (-40), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -545 yuan/ton (+16), and the PVC export profit is 1.6 US dollars/ton (+1.1) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: PVC factory inventory is 33.8 tons (+0.4), social inventory is 54.5 tons (-1.0), the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 76.47% (+4.82%), the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 78.50% (-0.06%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 77.09% (+3.35%). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 77.4 tons (+13.9) [1]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,303 yuan/ton (-33), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 197 yuan/ton (+33) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 806.6 yuan/ton (+80.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 103.78 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 979.23 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.26 tons (+2.83), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.73 tons (+0.28), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.30% (+3.50%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 85.86% (-0.41%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 68.06% (+0.75%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.66% (+1.05%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PVC** - Supply: Maintenance work has been completed this week, and new production capacities are gradually reaching full production. The supply is expected to be abundant [3]. - Demand: The downstream operation rate has increased, but the purchasing sentiment is average. Exports are relying on price cuts, and the export orders are weakening [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute inventory level is high. The high - level futures warehouse receipts also put pressure on the price [3]. - **Caustic Soda** - Supply: New maintenance and capacity increase co - exist, and the operation rate is rising. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton capacity release of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: Orders from alumina in Shandong are stable, but the operation rate of alumina in Hebei has decreased slightly due to environmental control. Non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken [3]. - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased slightly [3]. Strategy - **PVC** - Single - side trading: Fluctuate in a wide range. Consider positive arbitrage between futures and spot [4]. - Inter - period trading: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - commodity trading: No strategy [4]. - **Caustic Soda** - Single - side trading: Fluctuate within a range [5]. - Inter - period trading: Wait and see [5]. - Inter - commodity trading: No strategy [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.42%, showing a pattern of shrinking volume and increasing open interest. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the strong cost support. It is expected that rebar will continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil plate was running weakly with a daily decline of 1.03%, showing a pattern of shrinking volume and open interest. At present, the situation of high supply and high inventory of hot-rolled coils remains unchanged, and the concerns about demand have not subsided. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. Under the dominance of industrial logic, hot-rolled coils are under pressure to weaken, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production restriction situation [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.71%, showing a pattern of shrinking volume and increasing open interest. At present, the supply of iron ore is high, while the demand continues to weaken, and the weak fundamentals of iron ore remain unchanged. Under the dominance of the real logic, the high-valued iron ore price is prone to decline under pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In October, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.7%, remaining in the expansion range. Although the logistics business volume index had a slight correction, the overall demand maintained an expansion trend. Industrial logistics demand represented by bulk commodities declined to some extent, while consumer logistics demand showed an accelerating growth trend [6]. - Affected by the decline in output and weak demand, the manufacturing activity in the United States shrank for the eighth consecutive month in October. The manufacturing index of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) dropped 0.4 to 48.7. The output and employment indicators also declined [7]. - On October 31, 2025, Malaysia's Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry issued an announcement, making a positive final anti-dumping ruling on galvanized sheets originating from or imported from China, South Korea, and Vietnam. Anti-dumping duties will be levied on the涉案 products from these countries at the cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) price. The anti-dumping duty rate for China is 0% - 26.80% [8]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Tianjin price was 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national average price was 3,234 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton. For hot-rolled coil plate, the Shanghai price was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the Tianjin price was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3,338 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 110 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,010 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 783 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was 817 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ocean freight from Australia was 9.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.30 US dollars/ton; the ocean freight from Brazil was 23.11 US dollars/ton, down 0.21 US dollars/ton. The SGX swap price (current month) was 105.65 US dollars/ton, down 0.18 US dollars/ton; the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 105.85 US dollars/ton, down 1.55 US dollars/ton [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,044 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The highest price was 3,084 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,040 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,016,465 lots, a decrease of 134,111 lots; the open interest was 1,966,544 lots, an increase of 47,527 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil plate futures active contract was 3,265 yuan/ton, down 1.03%. The highest price was 3,299 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,260 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 375,271 lots, a decrease of 137,680 lots; the open interest was 1,396,130 lots, a decrease of 26,705 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1.71%. The highest price was 784.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 773.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 276,598 lots, a decrease of 130,128 lots; the open interest was 547,754 lots, an increase of 12,824 lots [13]. Related Charts - The report includes charts on steel inventories (rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil plate inventory), iron ore inventories (national 45-port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory), steel mill production situation (blast furnace operating rate, electric furnace operating rate, steel mill profitability), etc., but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [15][20][29] 后市研判 - Rebar: Both supply and demand continue to rise. The production of construction steel mills is active, and the weekly output of rebar increased by 5.52 tons week-on-week, reaching a relatively high level this year. The inventory is high, and the pressure has increased. At the same time, the demand for rebar has improved seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 6.17 tons week-on-week, and the high-frequency daily trading volume has also increased. However, both supply and demand are still at relatively low levels in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, so the improvement space is limited. The fundamentals of rebar have not improved in the current situation of increasing supply and demand, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the strong cost support. It is expected that rebar will continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - Hot-rolled coil plate: The supply-demand pattern has not changed much. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 1.10 tons week-on-week, remaining at a high level this year. The inventory reduction at a high level is limited, and the supply pressure is still relatively large, continuing to put pressure on the price of hot-rolled coils. At the same time, the demand for hot-rolled coils is acceptable, with the weekly apparent demand increasing week-on-week and remaining at a high level in the same period. However, the high-frequency trading volume is relatively weak, and the fundamentals of the main downstream cold-rolled products have not improved, so the demand concerns have not subsided. The relatively positive factor is the marginal improvement in external demand, but it needs to be tracked after the price rebounds. At present, the situation of high supply and high inventory of hot-rolled coils remains unchanged, and the demand concerns have not subsided. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. Under the dominance of industrial logic, hot-rolled coils are under pressure to weaken, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production restriction situation [37]. - Iron ore: The supply-demand pattern continues to weaken. Under the influence of production restrictions, the terminal demand for iron ore continues to decline. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of sample steel mills and the daily consumption of imported ore decreased week-on-week, and the decline continued to expand. The demand is clearly in a weakening trend. Considering that the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated, coupled with frequent seasonal production restriction disturbances, the demand for iron ore is expected to continue to decline, and the weak demand is likely to drag down the iron ore price. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has rebounded as expected, while the shipments of overseas miners have declined, but both are at relatively high levels. Coupled with the increase in domestic iron ore supply, the supply pressure of iron ore has increased. In general, the supply of iron ore is high, while the demand continues to weaken. The weak fundamentals of iron ore remain unchanged. Under the dominance of the real logic, the high-valued iron ore price is prone to decline under pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommend buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggest holding a wait - and - see attitude [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggest range trading; bearish on glass, recommend selling call options [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Bullish on copper at low prices, suggest holding small long positions cautiously without chasing highs; neutral on aluminum, suggest taking profit on long positions when favorable factors are realized; neutral on nickel, suggest waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggest range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggest range trading [1][9][10][11][14][16][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol, suggest range trading; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, recommend a short - selling strategy; neutral on polyolefins, suggest a bearish - biased range trading strategy [1][19][21][22][24][25][27][28][29][30] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggest a bullish - biased range trading strategy; neutral on PTA, suggest range trading; neutral on apples, suggest a bullish - biased range trading strategy; neutral on jujubes, suggest range trading [1][34][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs, recommend shorting on rallies; bearish on eggs, recommend shorting on rallies; bearish on corn, suggest a bearish - biased range trading strategy; bullish on soybean meal at low prices, suggest holding long positions; neutral on oils and fats, suggest a high - level adjustment strategy with a focus on the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1][38][40][42][44][46][52] Core Views - The positive results of the Sino - US talks and the positive stance of the 15th Five - Year Plan suggest that subsequent policies are worth looking forward to, and stock indices may fluctuate with a bullish bias [5] - The Sino - US talks, policy announcements, and market sentiment lead to a complex situation for government bonds, which are expected to fluctuate [5][6] - In the black building materials sector, the short - term supply shortage of coking coal and the low valuation of rebar support their prices, while the fundamentals of glass are deteriorating [7][8] - For non - ferrous metals, factors such as supply shortages, policy expectations, and seasonal changes affect the prices of copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, with different trading strategies recommended for each [9][10][11][14][16][18] - In the energy and chemicals sector, factors like cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies influence the prices of various products, and most are expected to fluctuate [19][20][21][22][24][25][27][28][29] - In the cotton and textile industry chain, the supply - demand situation and market sentiment affect the prices of cotton, PTA, apples, and jujubes, with different trends expected [34][35][36] - In the agriculture and animal husbandry sector, factors such as supply, demand, and seasonality affect the prices of pigs, eggs, corn, soybean meal, and oils and fats, and corresponding trading strategies are provided [38][40][42][44][46][52] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: The Sino - US talks achieved positive results, and the 15th Five - Year Plan has a positive stance. Stock indices may fluctuate with a bullish bias. It is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [5] - **Government Bonds**: Affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US talks, policy announcements, and market sentiment, government bonds are expected to fluctuate [5][6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and prices are on an upward trend. The short - term supply shortage supports the price [7] - **Rebar**: The price is at a relatively low valuation, and the demand has rebounded while the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The fundamental situation is deteriorating, and it is recommended to sell call options for the 01 contract [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply shortage and positive policy expectations support the price, but the high price suppresses demand. It is recommended to hold small long positions at low prices without chasing highs [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity and inventory situation are complex, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions when favorable factors are realized [11] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty, and the long - term supply is expected to be in surplus. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [15][16] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US economic data and interest rate cut expectations, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term and have support in the medium term. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4600 - 4800 for the 01 contract [19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as alumina production and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract paying attention to the pressure at 2400 [21][22] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply - demand situation lead to an expected range - bound movement between 6300 - 6700 [23][24] - **Rubber**: The high raw material price suppresses demand, and it is expected to fluctuate around 15000 [24][25] - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1700 [25][26] - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, the downstream demand is weak, and the port inventory is under pressure. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2230 - 2330 [27][28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has an increasing expectation, the demand improvement is slow, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The PE and PP contracts should pay attention to the support at 7000 and 6600 respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy for the 01 contract [30][32] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The supply - demand situation improves, and it is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [34] - **PTA**: The oil price and supply - demand situation lead to a low - level range - bound movement between 4400 - 4700 [34][35] - **Apples**: The quality decline and cost increase support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [35] - **Jujubes**: The price is stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the price change after the new season's centralized listing [36][37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is loose in the medium term, and it is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts, and be cautious about bottom - fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [38][39][40] - **Eggs**: The short - term demand is weak, and the long - term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 contract and wait and watch for the 01 contract [40][41] - **Corn**: The new crop's listing pressure is large, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the 01 contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread [42][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The cost increase drives the price up, and it is recommended to hold long positions for the M2601 contract and pay attention to the basis trading [44][45][46] - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend is under pressure, but there is support below. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [46][47][52]