Group 1 - As of August 15, 2025, Qingdao Kingway's stock price is reported at 8.74 yuan, down 1.80% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on the same day was 621 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 10.36% [1] - Qingdao Kingway's main business includes the research, production, and sales of candles, cosmetics, and related chemical products, covering areas such as household light industry and cross-border trade [1] Group 2 - On August 14, the European Commission announced a preliminary anti-dumping ruling against candles originating from China, with Qingdao Kingway facing a temporary anti-dumping tax rate of 57.5% [1] - The investigation pertains to export data from October 2023 to September 2024, which may impact the company's overseas business [1] Group 3 - On August 15, the net outflow of main funds was 46.32 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 58.81 million yuan over the past five days [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, the report suggests a bullish approach. Internationally, good weather in most areas of Canadian rapeseed crops boosts the prospects of a bumper harvest, while China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may affect its exports and put pressure on prices. Domestically, it's the off - season for oil consumption, with ample vegetable oil supply. However, the low operating rate of oil mills reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply pressure. The anti - dumping measures further weaken long - term supply. The market fluctuates greatly due to the anti - dumping preliminary ruling [7][8]. - For rapeseed meal, the report recommends a bullish mindset and suggests paying attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The US 2025/26 soybean harvest area is expected to decrease, reducing production and ending stocks. Domestically, the high operating rate of oil mills and the accumulation of soybean meal inventory suppress the rapeseed meal market. But less rapeseed arrives in the near - term, and it's the peak season for aquaculture, increasing the demand for rapeseed meal. The anti - dumping measures also weaken long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping preliminary ruling [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Bullish participation [7] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 01 contract was 9757 yuan/ton, an increase of 196 yuan/ton from the previous week. The total open interest was 296,496 lots, an increase of 116,426 lots from last week [8][16]. - Market Outlook: International factors include good weather in Canada and China's anti - dumping measures. Domestically, it's the off - season for oil consumption, but low mill operating rates, fewer rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures ease supply pressure. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping ruling [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Bullish thinking, pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [10] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 01 contract was 2546 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. The total open interest was 448,610 lots, an increase of 12,773 lots from the previous week [11][16]. - Market Outlook: The US soybean harvest area decrease affects the market. Domestically, high mill operating rates and soybean meal inventory suppress the market, but less near - term rapeseed arrival, peak aquaculture season, and anti - dumping measures support it. However, the substitution of soybean meal weakens demand. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping ruling [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Open Interest**: Rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal futures both rose first and then fell. Rapeseed oil's total open interest increased by 116,426 lots to 296,496 lots, and rapeseed meal's increased by 12,773 lots to 448,610 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: For rapeseed oil, the top 20 net positions changed from net long (+21,321) to net short (-2,284). For rapeseed meal, it changed from net long (+22,737) to net short (-17,470) [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: Rapeseed oil had 3,487 registered warehouse receipts, and rapeseed meal had 9,821 [27][28]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: In Jiangsu, the rapeseed oil spot price was 9,870 yuan/ton, and the basis was +113 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu Nantong, the rapeseed meal price was 2,590 yuan/ton, and the basis was +44 yuan/ton [37][43]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +165 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was +59 yuan/ton, also at a medium level [49]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal for the 01 contract was 3.83, and the average spot price ratio was 3.81 [52]. - **Price Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals**: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,223 yuan/ton, with relative volatility this week. The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 297 yuan/ton, narrowing this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 591 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 490 yuan/ton as of Thursday [62][68]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Inventory and Import Forecast**: As of August 8, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 150,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 were 200,000 tons, 570,000 tons, and 430,000 tons respectively [74]. - **Supply - Import Pressing Profit**: As of August 14, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was +863 yuan/ton [78]. - **Supply - Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 32nd week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 62,000 tons, with an operating rate of 15.17% [82]. - **Supply - Monthly Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 184,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 150,900 tons [86]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 773,000 tons, a decrease of 1.70% from last week. In June 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 150,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.67% and a month - on - month increase of 39,100 tons [91]. - **Demand - Consumption and Production of Edible Vegetable Oil**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 4.769 million tons, and the catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan [95]. - **Demand - Weekly Contract Volume**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 9.53% from last week [99]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Weekly Inventory**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 32.61% from last week [103]. - **Supply - Import Volume**: In June 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 270,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.17% and a month - on - month increase of 75,600 tons [107]. - **Demand - Monthly Feed Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons [111]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options fluctuated up and down. As of August 15, the implied volatility was 24.73%, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [116].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that canola oil futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 9715.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.99% [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has preliminarily determined that imported canola seeds from Canada are subject to dumping, imposing a 75.8% deposit on Canadian companies, which introduces uncertainty in the trade policy between China and Canada [2] - Domestic canola oil inventory is at a seasonally high level, and changes in trade policies may lead traders to actively import canola oil from Russia and Dubai, potentially supplementing the supply from Canada [2] Group 2 - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the canola oil market is showing a downward trend, influenced by macroeconomic factors and the recent suspension of a 24% tariff between China and the US [3] - The increase in domestic canola oil prices has further strengthened the vegetable oil sector, while the overall inventory of major oils, including soybean and palm oil, is on the rise [3] - The market is expected to wait for a new buying point after adjustments, with a long-term bullish outlook on oil fats [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the overall USDA August supply - demand report is bullish, but domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation suppresses the rapeseed meal market. However, factors such as low near - month rapeseed arrivals, peak aquaculture season, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed support the market. Despite the good substitution advantage of soybean meal, the market should be treated with a bullish mindset due to increased volatility [2]. - For rapeseed oil, international factors like rainfall in Canada and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed put pressure on prices, while domestic factors such as low oil mill operating rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures reduce supply pressure. The market should be mainly participated in with a bullish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 10,064 yuan/ton, up 262 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2,723 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 650.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 31.1 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5,136 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 228 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 112 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 282,665 lots, up 165,186 lots; rapeseed meal is 178,669 lots, down 27,971 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 14,214 lots, down 2,606 lots; rapeseed meal is 17,393 lots, up 15,262 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 0, down 3,487; rapeseed meal is 0, down 9,821 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,760 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,660 yuan/ton; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan/ton; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,840 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9,380 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,090 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 9,825 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [2]. - Import cost price of rapeseed: 4,656.83 yuan/ton, down 194.33 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: 3.73, up 0.15 [2]. - Basis of main contracts: Rapeseed oil is - 42 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan; rapeseed meal is - 63 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2]. - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil is 1,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal is 430 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons [2]. - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 15 million tons, up 5 million tons [2]. - Weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed: 16.84%, up 0.32 percentage points [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 455 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; rapeseed meal import volume is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 11 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi: 54.92 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 32.57 million tons, down 0.84 million tons [2]. - Weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil: 3.47 million tons, up 1.77 million tons; rapeseed meal is 2.72 million tons, down 0.15 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2,937.7 million tons, up 175.6 million tons; edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering: 4,707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.72 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.71 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (20 - day): Rapeseed meal is 23.19%, up 2.17 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 13.9%, up 2.13 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (60 - day): Rapeseed meal is 18.19%, up 0.9 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 12.89%, up 0.66 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 12, ICE rapeseed futures tumbled 4.5% after China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, but prices rebounded from the intraday low [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed changes in US soybean forecasts for the 2025/26 season, with lower harvest area and slightly higher yield, and lower production and ending stocks [2].

Core Viewpoints - The recent surge in canola oil futures, with a peak at 10,333.00 yuan and a current price of 10,085.00 yuan, indicates a strong market sentiment [1] - The preliminary anti-dumping investigation results on Canadian canola seeds will impose a 75.8% deposit on imports, significantly reducing profit margins and potentially decreasing import volumes [1] - The domestic canola oil market is expected to experience a strong upward trend due to limited alternative sources and high consumption during the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Longjiang Futures predicts that canola oil contracts for September and January will continue to show strong fluctuations in the short term [1] - The anti-dumping measures are likely to hinder the import of Canadian canola seeds post-August 14, leading to a further decline in import volumes already reduced year-on-year [1] - The current high inventory levels of domestic canola oil may accelerate depletion, positively impacting spot prices and basis [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Risks - The uncertainty surrounding the Canada-China trade relationship could lead to cautious purchasing behavior among domestic crushing plants, affecting future canola seed imports [2] - The high deposit rates may deter import traders, creating a risk of reduced canola seed supply in the domestic market [2] - The potential for increased imports from Australia and Russia may also influence canola oil prices in the future [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has preliminarily determined that imported canola seeds from Canada are being dumped, leading to the implementation of a temporary anti-dumping measure with a deposit rate of 75% [1][3]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The Ministry of Commerce decided to impose a temporary anti-dumping measure on imported canola seeds from Canada, requiring a deposit of 75.8% from all Canadian companies [3]. - This measure is aimed at protecting the domestic canola industry from the impact of low-priced dumped products, as there is a causal relationship between dumping and substantial damage to the domestic industry [3]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Reactions - The latest anti-dumping measure follows China's imposition of a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and oilseed meal since March, in response to Canada's announcement of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products [3]. - Analysts suggest that this move will increase pressure on the Canadian government to address trade frictions with China [4]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has also initiated anti-dumping investigations on Canadian pea starch and has identified dumping in brominated butyl rubber, leading to further deposit requirements [4].

进口预期收紧，近期国内菜系价格走势偏强。据南华期货（603093）方面分析表示，菜粕近月仓单问题 缓解使得近月回落，远月由于菜系供应不确定性问题而使得边际去库加速，盘面大幅拉升；商务部公布 文件表示，对所有加拿大公司征收的保证金比率75.8%，相当于直接进口成本上升75.8%，即使后续关 税确定后前期缴纳保证金会退还部分，但仍旧对于后续菜系整体供应产生较大影响。内盘菜系由于中加 反倾销关税影响，短期内存在冲高空间。 8月13日早盘，菜系市场做多情绪高涨，油菜籽期货大幅高开，菜籽油期货价格跟随冲高，菜籽粕期货 远月合约涨停，近月合约因仓单压力影响价格回落压力明显。 当地时间8月12日，据商务部公告，公布对原产于加拿大的进口油菜籽反倾销调查的初步裁定，自2025 年8月14日起，进口经营者在进口被调查产品时，应依据本初裁决定所确定的各公司的保证金比率向中 华人民共和国海关提供相应的保证金，对所有加拿大公司征收的保证金比率为75.8%。 据了解，2025年3月份我国已对加拿大菜籽油、油渣饼等已加征100%关税，如今随着菜籽加反倾销初 裁，或导致菜籽供应大幅收紧，原料短缺也将传导至下游菜油、菜粕的供应，从而推动其价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has initiated anti-dumping investigations against synthetic rubber imports from Japan and Canada, citing substantial harm to its domestic industry [2][4]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigation - The investigation targets "halogenated butyl rubber" used in passenger car tires, with the process starting in September 2024 [2][4]. - Preliminary findings indicate that synthetic rubber from Japan and Canada is causing significant damage to China's domestic industry [2][4]. Group 2: Import Duties - As of August 14, 2023, importers are required to pay a maximum deposit of 40.5% of the import value to customs [2]. - Japanese companies will need to pay a deposit ranging from 13.8% to 30.1% of the import value, while Canadian companies will face a deposit of 26.2% to 40.5% [4].

Group 1: Government Policies - The Ministry of Finance and eight other departments announced that service industry operators can enjoy interest subsidies on loans up to 1 million yuan, with a subsidy rate of 1% for a maximum of one year [1] - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau issued a plan for fiscal interest subsidies on personal consumption loans, covering various categories including household vehicles and education [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration clarified that income from express delivery services will be subject to VAT as "collection and delivery services" [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - A closed-door meeting of key dry-process lithium battery separator manufacturers reached several agreements to address issues like price competition and overcapacity, emphasizing price discipline and industry cooperation [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on anti-dumping investigations into imported canola seeds from Canada, confirming that dumping has caused substantial harm to the domestic canola industry [3] Group 3: Company News - Guizhou Moutai reported a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 8.89% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 9.10% to 89.389 billion yuan [3] - Cambrian Technology refuted rumors regarding large orders and revenue forecasts, urging investors to rely on official announcements [4] - Shangwei New Materials disclosed that its major shareholder reduced its stake to 5% by selling 1.5844 million shares [5] - China Shipbuilding announced a buyback price of 30.02 yuan per share for dissenting shareholders, with the stock closing at 38.50 yuan, indicating a premium of 28.25% [6] - Hengxin Oriental is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for alleged information disclosure violations [7] - Quzhou Development plans to acquire 95.46% of Xian Dao Electric Science and Technology, with the stock set to resume trading [8] - ST Shengtun will change its stock name to Shengtun Mining and remove risk warnings, allowing for a 10% trading limit [9] - Grand Microelectronics acquired 100% of LUCEDA NV to expand into silicon photonics technology [10] - Sifang Precision plans to reduce its stake by up to 2.25% due to shareholder funding needs [11] - Shaanxi Huada intends to purchase 100% of Huajing Microelectronics through a share issuance [12] - Hailanxin plans to acquire 100% of Hailan Huanyu for 1.051 billion yuan, constituting a major asset restructuring [12] - Ganfeng Lithium is collaborating with LAR to develop a lithium product production line with an annual capacity of 150,000 tons [13] - Yuhua Tian clarified that a minor stake acquisition by Zhiyuan Innovation does not significantly impact its operations [14]

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | 15 87 | 前结算价 : | 开盘价 : | 最高价 : | 寂低价 : | | 收盘价 :涨跌;涨跌幅 | | | :成交量:持仓量 持仓量变化: | | | --- | - ...