Market Overview - On July 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.12%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.21%, the STAR Market 50 gained 0.09%, the CSI 1000 was up by 0.35%, the ChiNext Index climbed by 0.96%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.68% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on July 28 were defense and military (+1.86%), non-bank financials (+1.51%), pharmaceutical and biological (+1.47%), comprehensive (+1.29%), and communication (+1.24%). The worst-performing sectors were coal (-2.6%), steel (-1.41%), transportation (-1.38%), oil and petrochemicals (-1.02%), and textiles and apparel (-0.93%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on July 28 was 1.7662 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 9.253 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The report emphasizes a focus on consumption and growth styles, with industry attention on electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and brokerage firms [5] - The report suggests that under the current monetary environment, the "dumbbell strategy" remains effective, but the large-cap growth style may attract market attention in the short term [5] - Factors driving this outlook include strong support from hydropower projects and policy catalysts such as "anti-involution" and Hainan's customs closure, which have impacted the previously strong dumbbell strategy [5] - The report recommends increasing focus on mid-to-large-cap growth styles in August, particularly in sectors related to consumption and growth, as well as electric equipment and non-ferrous metals influenced by industry trends in pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs, AI healthcare) and electronics [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q2, the performance of fixed - income + funds showed significant differentiation. Convertible bond funds led with an average return of 2.70%, outperforming first - tier bond funds (1.04%), second - tier bond funds (1.16%), and partial - debt hybrid funds (1.03%). The convertible bond allocation of fixed - income + funds presented three characteristics: mid - cap expansion, credit downgrade, and increased equity nature [2][5]. - In terms of scale style, there was an active switch from large - cap to mid - cap. In Q2, the average mid - value bond holding of fixed - income + funds increased by 7.4 pct to 40.7%, and the median rose by 7.0 pct to 36.9%. The average large - value bond holding decreased by 7.6 pct to 49.5%, and the median dropped by 9.4 pct to 50.8%. The average small - value bond holding slightly increased by 0.2 pct to 9.8%, but the median remained around zero [2][5]. - The rating style concentrated on A - to AA + levels, and the funds' credit preference downgraded. In Q2, the convertible bond holding rating distribution of fixed - income + funds differed from Q1. The average holding of A - to A + convertible bonds increased by 2.2 pct to 8.2%, while the median remained at zero. The average holding of AA - to AA + convertible bonds increased by 0.1 pct to 61.0%, and the median decreased by 0.2 pct to 65.8%. The average holding of AAA - and above decreased by 2.3 pct to 30.6%, and the median dropped by 2.4 pct to 21.0% [2][7]. - The equity - debt nature style shifted to the balanced type, and the partial - debt holding declined significantly. In Q2, the equity - debt nature allocation of fixed - income + funds' convertible bond holdings changed. The average holding of balanced convertible bonds jumped by 7.1 pct to 57.8%, and the median increased by 8.5 pct to 58.3%. The average partial - debt holding decreased by 7.2 pct to 32.1%, and the median dropped by 8.4 pct to 26.9%. The average partial - equity holding slightly increased by 0.1 pct to 10.1%, but the median remained at 0% [2][8]. - In the environment of continuous prosperity in the equity market, the dumbbell strategy still has a basis for continuous superiority. One end selects dividend bonds (banks/utilities) to provide a safety cushion, and the other end focuses on technology - growth - related targets such as AI and innovative drugs. Additionally, the "anti - involution" policy drives valuation repair, and there are profit expectation difference opportunities in weak - quality industries such as automobiles and steel. Finally, pay attention to targets with better - than - expected interim reports and explore structural opportunities [2][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Market Review - Q2 fixed - income + funds' convertible bond allocation showed "mid - cap expansion, credit downgrade, and increased equity nature" characteristics. The scale style switched from large - cap to mid - cap, the rating style concentrated on A - to AA +, and the equity - debt nature style shifted to the balanced type [5][7][8] - The reasons for the style change include the redemption of large - cap bank convertible bonds, the improvement of the profit expectation of mid - cap manufacturing convertible bonds, the high premium rate of AAA - and above bonds, and the adjustment of the bond market and the structural opportunities in the stock market [5][7][9] - The dumbbell strategy is still superior. Select dividend bonds and technology - growth - related targets, pay attention to industries with valuation repair, and explore opportunities from mid - term reports [11] 2. Market Weekly Trend - As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.67% to 3593.66 points, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.14% to 463.57 points. The top three rising industries in the stock market were coal (8.00%), steel (7.55%), and non - ferrous metals (7.10%), while the top three falling industries were banks (- 2.89%), comprehensive finance (- 1.00%), and communications (- 0.47%) [12] - This week, Libo Convertible Bond and Guanghe Convertible Bond were listed. 412 convertible bonds rose, accounting for 89%. The top five in terms of increase were Tianlu Convertible Bond (69.08%), Seli Convertible Bond (35.83%), Libo Convertible Bond (32.16%), Guanghe Convertible Bond (29.80%), and Dayu Convertible Bond (28.39%), while the bottom five were Hongfeng Convertible Bond (- 13.77%), Huicheng Convertible Bond (- 13.48%), Bohui Convertible Bond (- 7.09%), Mingdian Convertible Bond (- 6.35%), and Limin Convertible Bond (- 5.69%) [14] 3. Major Shareholders' Convertible Bond Reduction - This week, Chongqing Water and Asia - Pacific Technology announced convertible bond reductions. Many companies' major shareholders have reduced their convertible bond holdings, such as Huanxu Convertible Bond and Sanfang Convertible Bond [19][20][22] 4. Convertible Bond Issuance Progress - The first - level market approval rhythm is average. Yingliu Co., Ltd. (1.5 billion yuan) and Jinchengxin Co., Ltd. (2 billion yuan) passed the issuance review committee, and Longjian Co., Ltd. (1 billion yuan) was approved by the CSRC [22][23] 5. Private EB Project Update - There is no progress update on private EB projects this week [23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent positive trends in the Chinese stock market, highlighting the stabilization of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points and the potential for it to surpass last year's high of 3674 points, while also noting the healthy increase in market volume and sentiment [1][4]. Group 1: Macro Environment - Investors are still stuck in outdated perceptions of the A-share market, such as the belief that it will remain around 3000 points, failing to recognize the changing macro narrative [4]. - Key factors influencing the macro environment include: - Diminished tariff expectations and reduced geopolitical risks [4]. - Anticipated fiscal policy support due to pressures on growth and declining exports [4]. - Increased policy support for the capital market, including initiatives like the "National Nine Articles" [4]. - A surge in domestic liquidity and a low-interest-rate environment leading to a shift of funds from deposits to equities [4]. - Expectations of easing from the Federal Reserve, benefiting emerging markets and particularly A-shares and H-shares [4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The article identifies critical opportunities that investors may have missed, emphasizing the importance of being present in key moments and sectors [6]. - Notable phases of market uptrends this year include: - The emergence of domestic AI models in February, leading to a revaluation of technology stocks [7]. - The market recovery following a panic sell-off in April due to tariff concerns, supported by long-term funds [7]. - A structural rotation in June, with sectors like stablecoins and healthcare gaining traction [7]. - ETFs are highlighted as advantageous investment vehicles during market surges due to their high liquidity, low fees, and ability to mitigate individual stock volatility [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are cautioned against frequent trading and chasing trends, which can lead to losses [8]. - The article suggests that successful investment requires understanding the nature of industry rotations and focusing on high-potential sectors that have undergone significant corrections [8][10]. - The "Dumbbell Strategy" is recommended, which involves: - Allocating to high-growth sectors like AI and pharmaceuticals while also capturing short-term opportunities in undervalued sectors like finance and infrastructure [15][16]. - Maintaining defensive positions in stable, dividend-paying sectors to hedge against uncertainties [17].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a strong rally, particularly in small-cap stocks, with significant inflows into the 中证2000增强ETF and 1000ETF增强, which have year-to-date gains of 37.68% and 21.14% respectively [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 24, 中证2000增强ETF (159552) and 1000ETF增强 (159680) rose by 0.11% and 0.82% respectively, with a total inflow of nearly 30 million [1] - The effectiveness of the "dumbbell strategy" has decreased over the past month, indicating a shift in market focus towards mid-cap stocks [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - The combination of (沪深300 + 中证2000) - (中证500 + 中证1000) yielded a return of -0.52% from June 13 to July 11, contrasting with a 3.35% return from January 1 to June 13 [1] - Public funds are increasingly concentrating their holdings in 中证500 and 中证1000 as the earnings season approaches, reflecting a recovery in pricing power [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The small-cap stocks are expected to continue performing well, with a stronger linear characteristic in the profit effect for small-cap stocks projected for the first half of 2025 compared to 2023 and the second half of 2024 [1] - The trend indicates a potential shift from micro-cap stocks to small-cap stocks, suggesting ongoing opportunities in the small-cap segment [1]

Group 1 - The global economic landscape is becoming increasingly complex, characterized by slowing growth and rising risks, with unpredictable trade policies questioning assumptions about inflation and employment trends [1] - Investors are likely to rely more on fixed income assets due to their dual characteristics of stability and yield, which have proven to be more predictable over time [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is expected to experience moderate growth, with GDP growth projected to be below trend levels, while potential risks from tariff uncertainties could increase the likelihood of recession or stagflation [3] - The Federal Reserve may need to resume easing policies, with the possibility of up to two rate cuts by the end of the year if tariffs impact U.S. economic growth [3] - Long-term interest rates are expected to fluctuate within a historically wide range, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield projected between 3.75% and 4.75% [3] Group 3 - The weakening of the dollar due to rising deficits, debt costs, and tariff uncertainties makes unhedged local currency bonds more attractive [4] Group 4 - Despite market volatility, credit fundamentals remain robust, and rising yields enhance the attractiveness of bonds, with expectations for moderate excess returns in the credit market [5] - Bonds have demonstrated stability during stock market turmoil, providing safety and stable returns, with a return to typical low correlation between stocks and bonds [5] - Historical data suggests that when bond yields are between 4% and 6% and stock valuations are high (P/E ratio over 23), bonds tend to outperform stocks over the next decade [6] Group 5 - In the context of increasing interest rate uncertainty, investors can achieve smoother return curves by balancing short-term positions with long-term allocations [7] - High-quality assets, such as collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and investment-grade corporate bonds, are particularly attractive as they provide stable income and diversify equity risk [7] - Given significant uncertainties in U.S. policy and a weakening dollar, investors can benefit from more stable and attractively valued international bond yield curves [7] - Fixed income assets remain appealing for long-term investors seeking stable returns and enhanced portfolio stability amid economic slowdown and rising downside risks [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various investment strategies for dividend indices tailored to different investor needs, including those seeking monthly income, low volatility, long-term compounding, and higher returns [1][2]. Group 1: Monthly Dividend Income - Investors needing stable cash flow can consider holding a combination of Dividend Value ETF (563700), Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545), and Dividend Low Volatility ETF (563020) to achieve "monthly dividends" [2][3]. - This strategy is suitable for individuals with regular monthly expenses, such as rent or loan repayments, providing opportunities for consistent cash inflow [3]. Group 2: Low Volatility Preference - For risk-averse investors, the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (563020) and Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) are recommended due to their low volatility and strong drawdown control [2][3]. - The Dividend Value ETF (563700) combines high dividends with low valuations, allowing investors to purchase high-yield stocks at relatively lower prices [3][4]. Group 3: Long-term Wealth Accumulation - Long-term wealth accumulators can opt for the Dividend ETF E Fund (515180), which offers annual dividends, allowing for reinvestment to enhance compounding effects [5][6]. - The core of compounding is reinvesting dividend income to increase principal, thereby generating more returns over time [6]. Group 4: Higher Returns Beyond Dividends - For investors seeking higher returns, a combination of Dividend ETFs and growth-themed ETFs, such as Artificial Intelligence ETF (159819) and Robotics ETF E Fund (159530), is suggested [6][7]. - This strategy aims to balance stability from dividends with growth potential from high-growth sectors, forming a "barbell strategy" that mitigates volatility in the short term while targeting excess returns in the long term [6][7]. Group 5: Investment Suitability - The article emphasizes that there is no universally best investment strategy; rather, investors should choose combinations that align with their goals and circumstances [8].

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the recent performance of previously oversupplied cyclical industries (such as photovoltaic, steel, and chemicals) may signal the entry of the bull market into its mid-term main upward wave [3][7][19] - In the two major bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021), cyclical stocks significantly underperformed in the early stages but began to show strong performance in the later stages [3][8][10] - The steel sector is highlighted as the most representative cyclical industry due to its limited sub-sectors and high correlation with domestic macroeconomic demand [10][19] Group 2 - The report suggests that the main reason for the cyclical stocks' performance shift is related to valuation rather than earnings changes, as the fundamentals of cyclical stocks varied significantly in the two bull markets [3][13][19] - In the early stages of a bull market, only a few sectors see valuation increases, while in the later stages, most sectors experience valuation uplift, making cyclical stocks' valuation advantages more pronounced [3][13][19] - The report outlines two potential scenarios for the future: one where economic recovery is weak, leading to temporary excess returns for cyclical stocks, and another where rapid supply-side improvements and stable growth policies lead to a longer bullish trend for cyclical stocks [19][23][28] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions, characterized by low valuations and active policy support, resemble the early stages of previous bull markets, suggesting a comprehensive bull market is likely [23][28] - The suggested tactical approach includes increasing allocations to sectors with elastic performance, such as non-bank financials, AI applications, and cyclical stocks, which are expected to show elastic performance in the next six months [28][29] - Specific industry allocation recommendations include increasing exposure to non-bank financials, media, and cyclical sectors like chemicals and steel, which may benefit from stable supply policies and potential demand stabilization [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Wanji New Opportunities Value-Driven A (161910) reported a profit of 95,400 yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0057 yuan, indicating a net value growth rate of 0.33% during the period [3] Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's unit net value was 1.721 yuan, with a fund size of 28.77 million yuan [3][16] - The fund's performance over various time frames is as follows: - Last 3 months: -0.25%, ranking 858 out of 880 comparable funds [4] - Last 6 months: -1.03%, ranking 835 out of 880 comparable funds [4] - Last year: -3.58%, ranking 850 out of 880 comparable funds [4] - Last 3 years: -21.02%, ranking 627 out of 871 comparable funds [4] Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the last 3 years is -0.3109, ranking 733 out of 874 comparable funds [9] - The maximum drawdown over the last 3 years is 27.53%, ranking 663 out of 864 comparable funds, with the largest single-quarter drawdown recorded at 19.63% in Q1 2020 [11] Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicated a cautious approach towards the equity market, maintaining a focus on the domestic technology chain and employing a barbell strategy that includes defensive dividend stocks and technology manufacturing companies [3] - The average stock position over the last 3 years was 71.71%, compared to the industry average of 80.33%, with a peak of 92.64% at the end of 2019 and a low of 9.26% at the end of Q1 2025 [14] Holdings Concentration - As of Q2 2025, the fund has a high concentration in its top ten holdings, which include Agricultural Bank of China, Northern Huachuang, Huahai Pharmaceutical, Zhongwei Company, Yangtze Power, Chipone Technology, Haiguang Information, Zhongke Feimeng, Dongfang Cable, and Tuojing Technology [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the dovish stance of the next potential Fed Chair and strong US economic data boosted US stocks. In China, GDP recovery exceeded expectations, indicating economic resilience, but industrial enterprise profits are currently low, leading the market to anticipate pro - growth policies. Under these circumstances, the A - share market can continue its structural行情, and the dumbbell strategy can also be sustained. Key areas to focus on are large - financials and technology growth sectors, and for stock index futures, the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 are recommended. The market index has stabilized above 3500 after several days of consolidation, showing signs of a rebound [3][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Overseas Overnight**: US economic data in June and July showed resilience. The former hawkish Fed governor Wash shifted to the rate - cut camp. Overnight, the dollar index rose, the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined, gold fell, crude oil rose, US stocks closed higher, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly [2][5]. - **Domestic Market Review**: On Thursday, the market showed a volatile rebound. The ChiNext Index rose 1.75%. Due to the drag of heavy - weight sectors like banks, the market had a pattern where Shenzhen was stronger than Shanghai. Funds began to favor technology - growth stocks and brokerage stocks, which was beneficial for market sentiment, but there was no clear market leader. Military, communication, electronics, and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, while banks, transportation, environmental protection, and public utilities sectors led the losses. There were 3535 rising stocks and 1609 falling stocks in the whole market [2][6]. - **Important News**: There were various news items including tariff policies, Fed officials' remarks on interest rates, Trump's call for Fed rate cuts, responses from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Finance's adjustment of luxury car consumption tax, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's statement on the banking system [7][12]. - **Today's Strategy**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints, the A - share market can continue its structural行情, and the dumbbell strategy can be sustained. Focus on large - financials, technology growth, and the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures [13]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: Data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts such as Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were provided, along with information on their contract delivery dates and remaining times [15]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Data on trading volumes, trading volume changes, open interests, open interest changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts were presented, including the overall situation and that of each specific contract [16]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: Information on the current points, daily, weekly, and monthly price changes, trading volumes, and other indicators of various stock market indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others was provided, as well as data on different sectors [38]. - **Market Style Impact**: The impact of different market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) on major stock indices (Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) was analyzed, including the number of stocks, weights, and daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [39][40]. - **Valuation**: Valuation data and historical quantile information of major stock indices and Shenwan sectors were presented [42][45]. - **Other Market Indicators**: Information on market average daily trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading volume changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balances, and margin trading net purchases was provided [47][51]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - Information on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates was presented, but specific data was mainly in graphical form [53][54].

huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 18 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 7 月 17 日，万得全 A 震荡上涨，收涨 0.94%，超 6 成个股飘红；指数现货方 面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 0.68%、0.12%、1.08%、 1.14%。指数期货表现强于现货，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收涨 1.03%、0.40%、 1.40%、1.47%（按前一交易日收盘价为基准计算）。 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 资料来源：Wind，建 ...