Core Viewpoint - Gold futures declined due to a strengthening dollar, despite geopolitical tensions not driving the expected safe-haven demand for gold [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, the market's reaction was muted, indicating a wait-and-see approach regarding Iran's next steps [1] - Analysts suggest that potential Iranian responses could include closing the Strait of Hormuz, increasing attacks on Israel, or retaliating against U.S. targets [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Current market sentiment remains cautious, with investors not fully distancing themselves from risk despite the geopolitical tensions [1] - The appreciation of the dollar has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1]

加密货币市场在周末遭遇短暂抛售，周日凌晨以太坊跌幅一度达到7.7%，比特币短暂跌破10.1万美元。这一轮下跌正值美国对伊朗核设施发动空 袭、地缘政治紧张局势升级之际，投资者避险情绪上升。 市场恐慌情绪导致大规模清算，24小时内约6.79亿美元的加密货币头寸被强制平仓，超过17.1万名交易者遭遇爆仓。其中最大单笔损失来自HTX 交易所的915万美元ETH多头头寸。 流动性提供商Orbit Markets联合创始人Caroline Mauron表示，市场正紧张关注持续的地缘政治发展。她指出，周末期间比特币10万美元和以太坊 2000美元将是关键观察点，而当传统市场重新开盘时，石油价格将成为特别关注的焦点。 比特币相对抗跌 相比以太坊的大幅下跌，比特币表现相对稳定。虽然一度短暂跌破10.1万美元，但在新加坡时间下午1点10分几乎持平，目前在10.2万美元上方交 易。 不过，在短暂下跌后，比特币、以太坊均探底回升，收回失地。 据央视新闻报道美国已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施的袭击。 以太坊遇挫 一度跌至五个月低点 以太坊（ETH）在此轮抛售中表现最为疲弱，价格一度跌至2200美元水平附近，创下自去年5 ...

Group 1 - The White House indicated that President Trump will make a decision within two weeks, with a significant chance of resolving issues through negotiations, leading to a calming of market sentiment [1] - Oil prices fell approximately 2%, while U.S. oil rose about 0.7%, reflecting mixed reactions in the energy sector [1][9] - European stocks saw gains, with the German stock market rising about 1% and the French market increasing by approximately 0.7% [1] Group 2 - Spot gold decreased by about 0.6%, and silver fell by approximately 1%, indicating a decline in precious metals [2] - Bitcoin and Ethereum both rose over 1%, suggesting a positive trend in the cryptocurrency market despite overall market caution [2] - Analysts warn of potential volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly if the U.S. increases its involvement in ongoing conflicts, which could lead to oil prices soaring above $130 per barrel [2] Group 3 - In the U.S. stock market, major indices experienced a limited decline of about 0.2% across the board [2][3] - The British pound saw a slight increase of about 0.2% against the dollar following the release of disappointing retail sales data [6]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, reaching a weekly low of approximately $3344 before rebounding to around $3357 during the Asian session on June 20 [1] - On June 19, gold prices experienced significant volatility, hitting a low of $3347.53 and a high of $3387.77, ultimately closing at $3370.64, nearly flat [1] - The US dollar index rose to a one-week high of 99.16 but retraced some gains by the end of the session, with a weekly increase of about 0.7%, marking the strongest weekly performance since late February [1] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve maintained current interest rates but indicated potential for future rate cuts, while Chairman Powell cautioned against excessive expectations for rate reductions [2] - Powell highlighted that upcoming tariffs from the Trump administration could increase commodity prices, leading to a rise in inflation during the summer [2] - The Fed's vigilance regarding inflation risks diminishes the likelihood of rate cuts, putting direct pressure on gold prices as high-interest environments make gold less attractive compared to yield-bearing assets [2] Geopolitical Tensions - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, provided significant support for gold prices as a safe-haven asset [4] - The escalation of airstrikes and missile attacks between Israel and Iran has heightened concerns over global security, leading to increased demand for gold [4] - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard's claims of targeting Israeli military facilities and Israel's accusations of attacking civilian targets have intensified the conflict, further driving up market anxiety [4] Diplomatic Efforts - Diplomatic communications are ongoing, with US Middle East envoy engaging with Iranian officials to seek a resolution to the crisis [5] - Iran has stated it will return to negotiations only if Israel ceases its attacks, while E3 and EU are planning meetings with Iranian officials to explore diplomatic solutions [5] - The persistence of geopolitical risks suggests that demand for gold as a safe-haven asset may continue in the near term [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices showed a small-bodied close, indicating pressure, with potential further declines if the market falls below $3350, possibly testing above $3300 [8] - Short-term movements have been fluctuating below $3400 since a peak of $3452, with recent tests below $3350 indicating a bearish trend [8] Trading Strategies - Aggressive long positions can be attempted around $3332 with a stop loss at $3327 and a target near $3350/$3360 [9] - Aggressive short positions can be initiated around $3370 with a stop loss at $3377 and a target near $3343/$3333 [9]

Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The EU is attempting to reach a trade agreement with the US similar to the UK-US agreement, aiming to resolve some tariff disputes before the July 9 deadline to avoid immediate retaliatory tariffs against the US [1][3] - The US has increased tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50%, with President Trump threatening to raise "reciprocal tariffs" to 50% if no agreement is reached [3][5] - EU internal divisions are weakening its negotiating position, with some countries like France advocating for retaliation while others, including Italy and Hungary, prefer continued negotiations [5][6] Group 2: Economic Impact - The UN warns that global foreign direct investment (FDI) is at risk of declining for the third consecutive year due to tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, projecting an 11% drop in 2024 [9] - The UN Secretary-General highlighted that rising trade barriers and geopolitical divisions could worsen the already challenging economic outlook, with tariffs increasing uncertainty for investors [9][10] - A recent Business Roundtable report indicated a 15-point drop in the CEO Economic Outlook Index, attributed to unpredictable trade policies and widespread uncertainty [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and inflation expectations [1][3][4] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a key factor affecting gold prices, with indications that there may still be room for interest rate cuts this year, despite warnings against overly optimistic expectations for rate reductions [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent escalation between Israel and Iran, provide significant safe-haven support for gold prices, countering the downward pressure from the Fed's hawkish stance and a strong dollar [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently experiencing a contraction phase, with key resistance levels identified around 3370-3372, and a new downward trend has formed [6] - Recent trading activity shows gold fluctuating within a defined range, with a notable drop from 3388 to 3347, aligning with previous market expectations [6]

Core Insights - The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released the "World Investment Report 2025," indicating a decline of 11% in global foreign direct investment (FDI) for 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline [1] - Developed economies experienced a sharp drop in direct investment, with Europe seeing a significant decrease of 58% [1] - Asia remains the most attractive destination for foreign investment, projected to attract $605 billion in FDI in 2024, with developing economies in Asia leading as the top investment destinations [1] - The investment landscape for 2024 is influenced by geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and increasing competition in industrial policies [1] - Rising financial risks and uncertainties are reshaping the global investment landscape and undermining the confidence of long-term investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced fluctuations following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, with a cautious outlook on future rate cuts impacting gold prices negatively [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Federal Reserve decided to keep the overnight interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations. Fed Chair Powell indicated a projected 50 basis points cut this year, but future cuts will slow down significantly, with only 25 basis points expected in 2026 and 2027. This cautious stance diminished market expectations for rapid monetary easing, leading to a decline in gold prices [3]. - **Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy**: Powell noted that high tariffs from the Trump administration could increase inflation, with an expected inflation rate of 3% by year-end. Data from the U.S. Treasury showed customs revenue in May nearly quadrupled compared to the previous year, indicating that high tariffs have significantly raised import costs. While inflation expectations enhance gold's appeal as an anti-inflation asset, a strong dollar and the Fed's cautious monetary policy may limit gold's upward potential in the short term [4]. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Military actions by Israel against Iran have heightened tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about global energy supply and supply chain stability. The dollar's status as a safe-haven asset has strengthened, but gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset remains intact amid increasing geopolitical uncertainties [5]. - **Weak Economic Data**: The U.S. Labor Department reported high initial jobless claims, indicating weakened labor market momentum. May's single-family housing permits fell to a two-year low, and housing starts hit a five-year low, reflecting the dual impact of high borrowing costs and rising material prices due to tariffs. Signs of economic slowdown may prompt the Fed to reconsider its monetary policy stance, potentially providing upward momentum for gold prices [6]. Technical Analysis - **Daily Level**: Gold experienced a significant drop after a high opening on Monday, followed by a corrective candlestick on Tuesday. After the Fed's rate decision, gold dipped to 3362, closing with a bearish candle. The 10-day moving average is a critical support level; if it holds, gold may maintain a range-bound pattern. A break below could extend bearish momentum, with the 20-day moving average at approximately 3350 as the next support level. Resistance is seen at the 5-day moving average around 3390 [8]. - **Four-Hour Level**: Since the significant drop on Monday, gold has faced resistance in the 3400-3405 range during multiple rebounds. This range is crucial for short-term observations; a successful breakout could open further upside potential. Key support is at 3354, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and is near the weekly MA5 moving average. A break below 3354 would lead to further attention on support levels around 3335/3333 [10]. - **Hourly Level**: Gold has shown a pattern of repeated fluctuations, forming a downward channel since Monday's close. The current support level is around 3360. Until a continuation of the downward trend and a break of this support occurs, the market may continue to exhibit a range-bound behavior [10].

成功的投资者，是善于独立思考，具有独特的见解，然而这独特的见解不是从天下掉下来，也不是从地下冒出 来，是来自市场，来自实践，市场的实际走势才是千真万确，不会以人们的意愿而转变。 在以色列-伊朗地缘政治紧张局势挥之不去之际，所有人的目光都集中在美联储的政策公告上。北京时间周四 02:00，美国联邦将公布利率决议和经济预期摘要；随后02:30美联储主席鲍威尔将召开货币政策新闻发布会，美 联储政策声明将给市场带来剧烈波动。 黄金近期受中东局势影响，避险情绪拉满，回到了3400时代。但多次冲击3450关口，都未能逾越，随后迎来大幅 回落，成功跌破3400大关。目前承压3400关口弱势下行，隔日最低跌至3366附近反弹回升，但多头涨势乏力，迟 迟不能突破3400大关。今日承压继续下行，彬哥布局的3394空，再次跌至3377目标，再次收割近20点。 n a min lsl / | AIT Q 搜索聊天记录 发送人 × | 日期 v 李鸿彬 6/18 9:19 黄金隔日承压3400震荡下行,回调的低点在 下移,最低跌至3366附近回升,再次冲击 3395附近回落,那么反弹3390附近空,下 方 3373 附近多 李鸿彬 6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, are reshaping the global shipping landscape, with a low probability of a complete closure of the strait despite Iranian threats [1][2]. Shipping Market Impact - The oil tanker shipping sector is expected to benefit significantly from the reduction in "dark fleet" capacity, while container shipping will be relatively less affected [1][2]. - The Strait of Hormuz is strategically important for energy transport, with 11% of global maritime trade passing through it, including 34% of maritime oil exports and 30% of liquefied petroleum gas exports [1][2]. Scenarios for Strait Closure - Scenario 1: Military conflict may not disrupt oil flow, and the tanker market will remain stable during the off-peak season in Q2 2025 [2]. - Scenario 2: A decline in Iranian exports could reduce "dark fleet" transport volumes, increasing demand for legitimate tankers [2]. - Scenario 3: Broader risks to oil exports in the Gulf region could create uncertainty in tanker shipping, potentially leading to longer transport distances from the Atlantic to Asia [2]. Comparison with Red Sea Route - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have a limited impact on container shipping compared to the disruption of the Red Sea route, which reduced global effective capacity by about 10% in H1 2024 [2]. - Only 3% of global container trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making its closure less impactful on global container shipping capacity [2].