A股复盘 | 都要违约了还涨停 / 2025.12.10 万科下午竟然直线拉涨停了？又有什么小作文？且听我娓娓道来！ 早上，彭博报道， 万科今天召开持有人会议，争取债券展期，以避免违约。我没在意这条消息，上午地产也没什么太大动静。 下午万科忽然就要涨停了，赶紧找"小作文"。 一个没有找到原文了解的彭博消息出来了，说是据知情人士透露，中金再度参与万科 shukun，shukun方案已提交 。 但是仔细观察发现，这与11月26日REDD报的差不多， 当时的报道是，两名人士称，SZ 已将一份由中金参与建议的万科报告提交至省，省 将报告转呈至ZY。 就在我准备发的时候，地产小作文哐哐又出来了！不知道的还以为又要四万亿呢 关键是，后来彭博也发了地产异动的文章，但是原因中没写那条号称来自彭博的"小作文"，所以大概率是"炒冷饭"！ 不过临近收盘，万科今日持有人会议内容也流出，主要包括：12月15 日到期的20亿元人民币债券讨论展期一年，如果投资者不投票赞成， 公司将利用宽限期继续与投资者进行谈判。 会上万科强调，其流动性压力"一直在不断升级"，并指出， 该公司的房屋销售已从2021年的水平下降了78%而在此期间，该公司交付 ...

Group 1 - The market focus this week is on the technology sector, with strong performance in the semiconductor and domestic computing power sectors [1] - Moer Thread surged 468% on its debut on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, briefly exceeding a market capitalization of 300 billion, activating the semiconductor industry chain and reshaping valuations in the computing power sector [1] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference may signal policies focused on structural optimization and stable growth, benefiting core areas of the technology chain such as robotics, storage, and consumer electronics due to improved liquidity and increased risk appetite [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF (589630) tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Index (000680), with a daily fluctuation of 20%, reflecting the overall performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] - The index includes stocks from high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries, such as next-generation information technology, biomedicine, new materials, and new energy, showcasing an innovative growth style [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that technology remains the strongest mainline, with significant improvements in self-reliance and core technology breakthroughs in key areas, leading to deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] - The AI industry chain shows a continuous performance advantage in the computing power segment for three consecutive quarters, indicating a clear trend of industrial prosperity, with the computing power sector being the highest and most sustainable in profit growth [1] - The demand gap for computing power is expected to remain substantial, with high prosperity continuing to drive profits upward, and the domestic computing power chain is anticipated to have greater potential as the Sino-US computing power competition intensifies [1] Group 2 - The energy storage chain is experiencing unexpected upward prosperity, likely to continue due to increased power consumption driven by AI computing power, which boosts the overall prosperity of the energy storage chain [1] - The storage sector is entering a long-term upward cycle, supported by supply-demand dynamics and structural contradictions, which will sustain long-term prosperity in storage [1] - The Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship ETF (588360) tracks the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index (931643), which has a daily fluctuation of 20%, selecting 50 emerging industry securities with large market capitalization and excellent liquidity from the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [1]

2025 年 12 月 08 日 再提"实现量的合理增长" ——2025 年 12 月政治局会议点评 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com A 股 策 略 - 证券分析师 ⚫ 本次政治局会议工作基调与年中保持一致，重点强调"坚持稳中求进工作总基调，统筹发 展和安全"的同时提出了"增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做 优增量、盘活存量" 。结构方面再次强调"因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统 一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险"。细节方面可以看到，2025 年连续两次政 治局会议提及"实现量的合理增长"，时隔半年政治局会议再提"更好统 ...

Group 1 - The current market trading focus is on the technology sector, with strong performance in the semiconductor and domestic computing power sectors [1] - The listing of Moore Threads on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board saw a significant surge, leading to a revaluation of the semiconductor industry chain and igniting interest in upstream and downstream sectors such as photolithography machines and advanced packaging [1] - As the Central Economic Work Conference approaches, policy signals are expected to concentrate on structural optimization and stable growth, benefiting core areas of the technology chain such as robotics, storage, and consumer electronics due to improved liquidity and rising risk appetite [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF (589630) tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Index (000680), with a single-day fluctuation of 20%, reflecting the overall performance of eligible listed companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] - The index has a balanced industry distribution, focusing on "hard technology" fields such as electronics, biomedicine, and machinery equipment, showcasing the high growth potential and core characteristics of technological innovation on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that technology remains the strongest driving force, with significant improvements in self-reliance and core technology breakthroughs in key areas, leading to deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] - The AI industry chain shows a consistent performance advantage in the computing power segment for three consecutive quarters, indicating a clear trend of industrial prosperity, with the computing power sector being the highest and most sustainable profit growth area [1] - There is a substantial demand gap for computing power in the future, and the high prosperity will continue to drive profits upward, with domestic computing power chains expected to have greater potential as the Sino-US computing power competition intensifies [1] Group 2 - The energy storage chain is experiencing unexpected upward prosperity, likely to continue due to increased power consumption driven by AI computing power, which boosts the overall prosperity of the energy storage chain [1] - The storage sector is entering a long-term upward cycle, supported by supply-demand and structural contradictions that sustain long-term prosperity in storage [1] - The Science and Technology Innovation Board 100 ETF (588120) tracks the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index (000698), which has a daily fluctuation of 20%, reflecting the overall performance of 100 mid-cap securities in the Science and Technology Innovation Board [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced a volatile rebound today, with the ChiNext Index rising by 1.4% and surpassing the 3100-point mark. The ChiNext ETF (159915) saw a net subscription of 37 million units throughout the day [1] - Over the week, the ChiNext Growth Index increased by 2.4%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.9%. In contrast, the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index declined by 0.2% [1] Economic Outlook - Huashan Securities indicated that the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference is expected to align with market expectations. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to adopt a hawkish stance on interest rate cuts, with the economic fundamentals continuing to show signs of slowdown [1] - The market is likely to remain in a high-level fluctuation phase, with accelerated sector rotation and increased difficulty in positioning. Therefore, strategic layout for the upcoming market phase may be a better choice [1] Investment Opportunities - The core position of the AI industry chain remains unchanged, and recent adjustments present good opportunities for positioning [1] - Additionally, sectors experiencing dual demand and supply growth, as well as those with rising prosperity, are also worth noting, particularly in the storage and energy storage chains [1] Index Performance - The ChiNext Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 45.2%, while the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index has risen by 24.0%, and the ChiNext Growth Index has surged by 62.2% [7] - Over the past year, the ChiNext Index increased by 37.2%, the ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index by 12.2%, and the ChiNext Growth Index by 52.9% [7] Index Composition - The ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index is composed of 200 stocks with medium market capitalization and good liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of representative companies in the ChiNext market. The information technology sector accounts for over 40% of this index [4] - The ChiNext Growth Index consists of 50 stocks with prominent growth styles and high earnings growth, with the electric equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and communication sectors collectively accounting for about 60% [4]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound after a period of decline, but the adjustment in technology growth stocks has not fully resolved, indicating that while the price adjustment is over half complete, the time for recovery remains insufficient [5] - The spring market is characterized by potential effective rebounds in offensive assets like technology and cyclical stocks, but the upward breakthrough logic may be difficult to realize, suggesting a limited upper range for the spring market [5] - Short-term rebounds are expected, with the "policy bottom" potentially being validated earlier, alongside rising prices in cyclical sectors, indicating that cyclical assets may form the foundation for the spring market [5] Industry Valuation and Comparison - As of November 28, 2025, the valuation metrics for major indices are as follows: - CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.0x, PB at 1.8x, at historical percentiles of 77% and 38% respectively - SSE 50 PE at 11.8x, PB at 1.3x, at historical percentiles of 63% and 42% - ChiNext Index PE at 39.2x, PB at 5.1x, at historical percentiles of 30% and 56% [8][9] - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include real estate, retail, pharmaceuticals, and IT services, while the medical services sector is below the 15th percentile for both PE and PB [9][10] Global Asset Allocation - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US has increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December rising to 86.4%, up from 71.0% the previous week, driven by a weakening labor market [11] - The decline in the US dollar index below 100 indicates a shift to a weaker position, contributing to an inflow of both domestic and foreign capital into the Chinese stock market [11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The electronic sector experienced significant growth in Q3 2025, ranking second across all industries, primarily driven by advancements in computing power and new AI consumer electronics products, which are expected to ramp up in the second half of next year or the following year [1][6] - The semiconductor segment saw the highest allocation at 12.91%, with key holdings including Cambricon and Zhaoyi Innovation, benefiting from AI, high computing power, and storage expansion [1][8] Core Insights and Arguments - Active fund holdings reached 26.4% in Q3 2025, a 7 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, with the electronic sector being the most favored, showing a super allocation ratio of 11.7% [3] - The global semiconductor monthly sales hit record highs, with expectations to surpass $1 trillion in the next couple of years, driven by AI and storage demand [10] - Despite pressures from rising storage prices, innovations in hardware and software at the terminal level are expected to drive growth in electronic products and components [1][14] - The display device market remains stable, with core leading companies showing strong dividend potential, although there has been a short-term reduction in fund allocations due to the AI hype [15] Detailed Sector Analysis - In Q3 2025, the electronic sector's growth rate was 46.88%, second only to the communication sector, with significant contributions from computing-related areas such as PCB and server assembly [6] - The electronic industry is categorized into four main segments: semiconductors, electronic products, components, and display devices, with components and semiconductors showing the most growth [7] - Key semiconductor stocks include Cambricon, Zhaoyi Innovation, and North Huachuang, which are benefiting from AI and storage expansion [8] Future Outlook - Companies like Luxshare Precision and Industrial Fulian are expected to show substantial growth potential, with Industrial Fulian seeing a significant increase in active fund holdings [9] - The semiconductor market is projected to maintain high growth rates, with AI and storage demand driving this trend, despite potential impacts from rising storage prices on low-end products [11] - The electronic products and components sector is expected to continue growing, with companies like Luxshare Precision and Huadian Electronics receiving increased allocations [13][14] - The display device market is anticipated to have a stable long-term outlook, despite short-term reductions in fund allocations due to AI-related investments [15] Investment Trends - Foreign capital is increasing allocations to leading companies like Lens Technology and Crystal Optoelectronics while reducing holdings in companies like OmniVision Technologies [2][16] - The ETF holdings have increased in value but with a decrease in concentration, indicating a shift in investment strategies [16] - The AI industry is expected to see continued growth, with 2026 being a pivotal year for AI investments, despite discussions about potential bubbles [17]

Group 1 - 16 hard technology products were approved on November 21, including the Tianhong Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Design Theme ETF [1] - The Sci-Tech Chip Design Index has increased by 45% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 30 percentage points and exceeding the CSI All Share Semiconductor and National Chip indices, which grew by 29% [1] - The index focuses on the "brain" segment of the industry, with 80.2% of its components in digital chip design and 15.5% in analog chip design, featuring leading stocks like Cambricon and Haiguang Information [1] Group 2 - For the first three quarters of 2025, the Sci-Tech Chip Design Index reported a revenue increase of 34.27% and a net profit attributable to shareholders increase of 186.68%, both ranking first among semiconductor industry indices [1][3] - This growth reflects the penetration and commercialization capabilities of domestic chip design companies in high-demand sectors such as AI computing power and storage [1][3] - The index has experienced a cumulative decline of over 18% since the fourth quarter, making the approval of the Tianhong ETF a timely investment tool for investors in hard technology listed companies [1][3]