Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a "Davis Double Play" in 2026, driven by valuation recovery, profit growth, and a return to main themes, with a focus on the "Four AI Main Lines" framework to identify structural opportunities in the tech sector during the AI era [1][2]. Investment Focus - The Hang Seng Index is anticipated to regain upward momentum, with the Hang Seng Tech Index expected to outperform the broader market. The tech sector, representing core assets of China's new economy, is projected to be the strongest driver of market rebound [2]. Main Line 1: Internet Giants - AI is shifting competition among internet giants from traffic to ecosystem capabilities. Cloud business is accelerating due to AI demand, with capital expenditure doubling and stable profit margins. Advertising is seeing immediate monetization benefits from AI, with click-through rates increasing by 15%-20%. Key investment targets include Tencent, Alibaba-W, and Kuaishou, which are well-positioned to leverage technology and data [3]. Main Line 2: AI Computing Power Industry Chain - Leading companies are consistently exceeding expectations, with strong capital expenditure from cloud vendors and tight chip supply countering "bubble" concerns. High infrastructure investment and high ROI are justified, indicating a robust AI industry cycle. Key opportunities include communication networking benefiting from global tech upgrades, semiconductor manufacturing for domestic substitution, and critical equipment and materials for computing power upgrades [4]. Main Line 3: AI Applications - Investment in AI applications has entered a phase where performance is paramount. Clear signals of commercialization acceleration are observed in key sectors such as SaaS, content ecosystems, and advertising. The evolution of enterprise tools into "intelligent agents" is driving ARPU growth, while AIGC is lowering creation costs, leading to synchronized user and revenue growth [5]. Main Line 4: AI End-User and Robotics - The year 2026 is projected to be pivotal for AI-defined hardware and large-scale production of robots. Hardware manufacturers like Apple and Xiaomi are enhancing AI capabilities, while tech giants like OpenAI and Google are entering hardware markets. The investment landscape includes a comprehensive mapping of the robotics industry chain, highlighting opportunities from upstream expansion and capital empowerment, with humanoid robots like Tesla's Optimus expected to reach significant production levels [6].

值得注意的是，知名研究机构YardeniResearch大幅上调黄金价格预期，强调贵金属市场的强劲涨势，主 要反映的是宏观和政策上的深切担忧，而非全球经济活动出现反弹。该机构将2026年底的黄金目标价从 先前的5000美元/盎司调高至6000美元/盎司。此外，Yardeni重申其长期观点，预计黄金价格有望在本年 代末达到10000美元/盎司。 广发证券在研报中指出，伴随2025年12月美联储降息落地，美联储稳步迈入降息周期。美国关税政策对 通胀的"一次性"冲击预期落地后，美联储将继续平衡就业和通胀等核心目标，2026年降息幅度与节奏将 与美国经济数据及美联储人事变动相关联。预计美国实际利率和美元指数将持续走弱，推动金价稳步上 行。随着金价快速上行且高位运行，2026年开始黄金企业业绩将全面释放，板块或迎戴维斯双击行情。 截至2025年12月24日 09:41，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(931238)上涨0.33%，成分股白银有色 (601212)上涨4.23%，湖南白银(002716)上涨3.03%，豫光金铅(600531)、晓程科技(300139)、招金矿业 (01818)等个股跟涨。 黄金股ETF(51 ...

化工板块今日（12月23日）继续上攻！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）早盘短暂低位震荡 后迅速拉升，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到1.33%，午后略有回落，截至收盘，涨0.48%。 成份股方面，锂电大面积爆发、氟化工、磷化工等板块部分个股亦表现亮眼。截至收盘，多氟多涨停， 天赐材料飙涨9.37%，恩捷股份、新宙邦双双大涨超5%，宏达股份涨超3%。 | 应号 证券代码 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | [区间首日] 2025-01-01 | | | | [区间尾日] 2025-12-23 | | | | [单位] % | | | :: 1 000813.CSI 细分化工 | | 34.2733 | | :: 2 000300.SH 沪深300 | | 17.4292 | | :: 3 000001.SH 上证指数 | | 16.9527 | 注：统计区间为2025年1月1日至2025年12月23日，细分化工指数近5个完整年度的涨跌幅为：2020年， 51.68%；2021年，15.72%；2022年，-26.87%；2023年，-23.17%；2024年 ...

12月份以来，股票型ETF呈现资金净买入状态，月内净申购份额达400.96亿份。在股票型ETF中，宽基 ETF受到投资者青睐。Wind数据显示，截至12月22日，宽基ETF月内净流入金额超100亿元，达111.37亿 元。中证A500、中证500、科创50等重要宽基指数相关ETF获资金积极布局。最新数据显示，截至12月 22日，全市场 A500ETF近1个月合计净流入超600亿元，总规模超2600亿元。 今日（2025年12月23日）A股继续反弹，三大股指齐涨，上证指数迎来日线5连阳，全市场半日成交额 达1.25万亿元。从具体板块表现看，受碳酸锂期货持续上涨影响，锂电产业链领涨；半导体产业链、算 力产业链等表现活跃。值得一提的是，Wind数据显示，截至12月22日，A股今年总成交额达405.55万亿 元，这是A股历史上首次年度成交额超过400万亿元。 其中，有色金属表现活跃因碳酸锂价格上涨催化。中国有色金属工业协会锂业分会发布2025年11月锂行 业运行情况提到，2025年11月，碳酸锂期货价格逐步抬升。锂企业三季报业绩回升，市场对未来锂价预 期乐观。供应端，市场库存加速去化，宁德时代旗下锂矿消息仍形成扰动， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations on December 23, with the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) rising over 2% at one point, reaching a new high since its listing, driven by significant net subscriptions [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a net subscription of 31 million units, with an estimated net subscription amount exceeding 50 million yuan during the trading session [1]. - The ETF's performance indicators show a year-to-date increase of 87.92% and a 120-day increase of 62.58% [1]. - The ETF's top ten constituent stocks mostly experienced gains, with Shandong Gold (600547) up 6.72% and Tianqi Lithium rising over 3% [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The spot gold price continued to rise, nearing $4,500 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 70% [5]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged over 3%, continuing a trend of price increases, with expectations of further price support due to low inventory levels [7]. - Copper prices reached record highs, with forecasts suggesting potential increases to $13,000 per ton in the second quarter of 2026 [8]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The nonferrous metal sector is projected to maintain strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 90% year-to-date, positioning it as a leading industry [12]. - The 2026 outlook for basic metals, particularly copper and aluminum, is optimistic due to expected demand improvements and supply constraints [10]. - The demand for lithium and cobalt is anticipated to grow, with lithium prices expected to continue their upward trend due to supply and demand dynamics [11].

化工板块今日（12月23日）继续猛攻，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）早盘低位震荡后突然拉升，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到 1.33%，截至发稿，涨0.73%。 成份股方面，氟化工、锂电等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，多氟多、天赐材料双双涨停，恩捷股份大涨超6%，新宙邦涨超5%，宏达股 份、星源材质涨超2%。 | 分时 多日 1分 5分 | | | 15分 30分 ୧୦સ | | | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 画线 工具 & 2 > | | | | CD | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.838 | | | 13:48 6 0.833 | ANNA | * 0.006(0.73%) 均价 0.833 成交量 0 IOPV 0.8. | | | | (0): 3 3 SSE CNY 13:48:16 交易中 | | +0.006 +0.73% 中 / @ + | | 0:833 | | | | | | | | 0.6798 | 净值走势 | | 华宝化工 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 化工板块今日（12月23日）继续猛攻，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）早盘低位震荡后突 然拉升，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到1.33%，截至发稿，涨0.73%。 成份股方面，氟化工、锂电等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，多氟多、天赐材料双双涨停，恩捷股 份大涨超6%，新宙邦涨超5%，宏达股份、星源材质涨超2%。 | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 ▼ | F9 盘前盘后 雪加 九转 画线 工具 @ CO | 516020 | 4. TETS (D | 516020(化工ETF) 13:48 价 0.833 涨跌 0.006(0.73%) 均价 0.833 股交量 0 IOPV 0.8 | 0.833 | +0.006 +0.73% | 0.83 | Varmon | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

刘庭宇进一步表示，从基本面来看，黄金股呈业绩高增态势，2026年或有望继续上演戴维斯双击行情。 中证沪深港黄金股指数前十大成分股2025年前三季度业绩保持62%的高增速，符合市场预期。这一高增 长得益于金价中枢上行与金矿公司积极扩产形成的"量价齐升"格局，且这一核心逻辑在后续或仍将持续 兑现。从估值层面来看，截至11月30日，若按3800美元/盎司的金价测算，主要金矿公司2026年平均市 盈率仅为11-15倍，而历史上金矿公司估值中枢约为20倍，当前板块仍存在显著的估值修复空间。 刘庭宇表示，从资金维度看，无论是降息周期带来的交易型资金流入，还是在去美元化等趋势下长期配 置需求的增强，黄金板块均展现出显著的投资价值。尤其值得注意的是，近期黄金隐含波动率已快速回 落至历史平均水平，这在降低市场不确定性的同时，进一步提升了投资的性价比。 "美国11月失业率超预期抬升，叠加通胀数据低于预期、消费数据持续疲软，多重信号均指向美国经济 增长动能放缓，为美联储进一步宽松提供了充足依据。高盛、美银、瑞银及世界黄金协会等纷纷上调黄 金目标价至4900-5000美元区间，为黄金股的表现提供了坚实的价格支撑。"刘庭宇称。 12月 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A-share profit structure in 2025 will feature a "technology + overseas expansion" dual mainline characteristic, with traditional industries recovering from real estate drag and high-end manufacturing and export becoming new growth points [1] - The technology sector (such as AI hardware and communication equipment) and cyclical sectors (global pricing resource products) are expected to become the next main lines in the market [1] - The CSI A500 index, as a broad-based index, is likely to benefit from the Davis double-click opportunity brought by the transformation of new and old driving forces under the backdrop of profit recovery and industrial upgrading [1] Group 2 - The CSI A500 ETF (159338) tracks the CSI A500 index (000510), which selects samples from industry leaders in the A-share market using an industry-balanced selection method, reflecting both market capitalization representation and balanced industry distribution [1] - The index components embody the characteristics of "new productive forces" and reflect the overall performance of core A-share assets through a dual allocation of value and growth styles [1] - According to the 2025 mid-year report, the total number of accounts for the Guotai CSI A500 ETF ranks first among similar products, being more than three times that of the second place, indicating a strong preference among investors for this ETF [1]

观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资 产，但不保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩及其净值高低并不预示其未来业绩表 现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成对本基金业绩表现的保证。投资不同类型的基金将获得 不同的收益预期，并承担不同程度的风险。通常基金的收益预期越高，风险越大。敬请投资者在做出投 资决策之前，仔细阅读产品法律文件，充分认识基金的风险收益特征和产品特性，充分考虑自身的风险 承受能力，理性判断并谨慎做出投资决策。 美联储独立性弱化与全球去美元化趋势，进一步强化了黄金的长期配置价值。当前美国滞胀发生概率较 高，而欧洲主要经济体也面临财政状况恶化与滞胀风险，从历史表现来看，黄金在滞胀环境中相对其他 大类资产更具优势，全球宏观环境对黄金资产形成明确利好。值得注意的是，近期美联储内部政策分歧 加剧，独立性逐渐动摇，叠加美国赤字率上行持续侵蚀美元与美债信用，全球"去美元化"趋势不断加 剧。在此背景下，不仅新兴市场央行有强烈的增配黄金需求——当前新兴市场央行黄金储备占比显著低 于全球平均水平，数字货币发行商也 ...