Group 1 - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly lowered the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%, down from the previous prediction of 1.8% made in August [1] - The report indicates that the slowdown in goods trade will also indirectly impact service trade, with global service export growth expected to decline from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, and further to 4.4% in 2026 [1] - Trade restrictions and policy uncertainties are spreading across more economies and industries, posing major downside risks to global trade [4] Group 2 - Despite the challenges posed by unilateral tariff measures and trade policy uncertainties, the global trade system shows resilience, supported by the stability provided by the multilateral trade system and appropriate responses from members to tariff changes [4] - The WTO has revised the global goods trade growth forecast for 2025 upward to 2.4%, from the previous estimate of 0.9% made in August [6] - In the first half of 2025, global goods trade volume is expected to grow by 4.9% year-on-year, with the dollar value of global goods trade increasing by 6%, driven by factors such as increased imports in North America to avoid high tariffs, improved macroeconomic conditions, and a surge in demand for AI-related products [6]

辉瑞近来一直处于聚光灯下，尤其是在其与美国政府的协议曝光之后。特朗普政府宣布对进口药品征收 100%关税，以迫使制药企业将生产转移回美国。这一政策引发了制药行业的震动，而辉瑞则率先与政 府达成协议，承诺在美国提供一些药物的价格折扣，并将投资700亿美元用于美国的生产和研发。作为 交换，辉瑞将在未来三年内获得关税豁免。这一重大举措虽然暂时为辉瑞争取到了一个喘息的机会，但 也在一定程度上揭示了企业经营环境的不确定性。 再看这些协议，尽管它们短期内推高了辉瑞的股价，但长期看来，市场对这些政策的实际效果持保留态 度。一方面，虽然通过直接销售药品和提供价格优惠的方式，辉瑞似乎向消费者展示了更低的药价，但 其实际受惠的范围仍然有限，许多关键问题并未得到解决。尤其是医保用户是否能享受这一折扣，依然 是一个谜。此外，直销药品的现金支付价格可能不会被纳入医保的自付额度，长远来看，未必能降低整 体用药成本。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：美股情报站） 近期辉瑞股价的下跌引发了市场的广泛关注。10月6日，辉瑞的股价下跌了3.43%，这在一定程度上反 映了市场对其未来发展的疑虑。然而在背后，是一场复杂的政治和经济因素交织的结果。 另一方面 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Stock Index and Precious Metals Continue to Rise, Most Commodities Show Flat Trends - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250930" [1] - Author: Zhong Ding from CITIC Futures Research Institute [1] 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: Trump's tariff escalation and the US government shutdown crisis have increased policy risks. There are significant differences within the Fed regarding the pace of interest rate cuts and the policy framework [5]. - Domestic macro: In August, the year - on - year growth of industrial enterprise profits reached 20.4%, the highest in nearly two years, and the cumulative growth rate turned positive to +0.9%. However, the demand shortage remains. In the fourth quarter, the asset allocation order is equity > commodities > bonds [5]. - Asset view: Be cautious of external risk disturbances during holidays. Maintain the strategic advantage of equity and gold in the medium - term, and balance the tactical allocation [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Performance 3.1.1. Domestic Main Commodities - Shipping: The container shipping route to Europe has seen price drops, with a daily decline of -2.11% and a quarterly decline of -16.73% [2]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices are rising. Gold has a daily increase of 1.22% and a quarterly increase of 12.63%, while silver has a daily increase of 2.89% and a quarterly increase of 24.21% [2]. - Non - ferrous metals: Most non - ferrous metals show mixed trends, with some rising and some falling [2]. - Black building materials: Products like rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore have different price changes, with iron ore having a quarterly increase of 13.62% [2]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil, fuel oil, and other products also have various price trends. Crude oil has a quarterly increase of 2.54% [2]. - Agricultural products: The prices of soybeans, palm oil, and other agricultural products fluctuate [2]. 3.1.2. Financial Markets - Stock index futures: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, etc. are rising. The CSI 300 futures have a daily increase of 1.76% and a quarterly increase of 18.50% [3]. - Treasury bond futures: Most treasury bond futures are falling, such as the 2 - year treasury bond futures with a quarterly decline of -0.30% [3]. - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index has a quarterly increase of 1.47% [3]. 3.1.3. Overseas Commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have different price trends. ICE Brent oil has a quarterly increase of 3.29% [3]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold and silver prices are rising. COMEX gold has a quarterly increase of 14.32% [3]. - Non - ferrous metals: LME metals also show mixed price movements [3]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans, corn, etc. have price fluctuations [3]. 3.2. Sector and Variety Analysis 3.2.1. Finance - Stock index futures: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active, and the short - term outlook is for a volatile rise [6]. - Bond market: The bond market remains weak. Treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2.2. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Influenced by the restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September, prices are expected to rise with fluctuations [6]. 3.2.3. Shipping - Container shipping route to Europe: As the peak season fades in the third quarter, prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2.4. Black Building Materials - Steel, coke, iron ore, etc.: Affected by factors such as demand expectations and policy disturbances, prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2.5. Non - ferrous and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, zinc, etc.: Affected by supply disturbances and other factors, prices show different trends, with copper expected to rise with fluctuations [6]. 3.2.6. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, LPG, etc.: Affected by supply - demand changes and geopolitical factors, prices are expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2.7. Agriculture - Oils, protein meals, etc.: Affected by factors such as trade policies and weather, prices are expected to fluctuate, and the price of pigs is expected to fall with fluctuations [8].

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing stagnation, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, indicating a slowdown in hiring due to trade tensions [1] - Manufacturing, wholesale retail, and energy sectors are particularly affected, with significant job losses reported [2] - Companies like John Deere have reported substantial financial losses due to tariffs, with a projected loss of $300 million by 2025, leading to layoffs [2] Group 2 - Uncertainty from fluctuating policies is causing companies to adopt a cautious approach, often leading to hiring freezes [3] - Executives from various sectors express that without stable policies and predictable costs, recruitment and expansion plans are on hold [3] - The Trump administration maintains that tariffs will ultimately boost employment by encouraging businesses to relocate operations back to the U.S. [4] Group 3 - Some companies report benefits from tariffs, claiming they help their business, while others highlight the negative impact on hiring and growth [4] - Economic experts argue that the manufacturing sector's struggles are due to demand slowdown and unresolved policy shifts rather than labor supply issues [4]

Core Insights - Moody's report on global macro outlook for 2025-26 indicates a loss of momentum in global economic growth, with emerging and frontier markets, particularly in East Africa, facing increased risks from uncertainty and policy changes [1] Economic Growth - The report forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth for this year and next as economies adapt to significant shifts in trade, fiscal, monetary, and immigration policies [1] Trade and Investment - Ongoing instability in the global trade system and adjustments in monetary policy may exert pressure on investment, exports, and employment in developing economies [1] - Heightened trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and a slowdown in global economic growth could hinder foreign direct investment into developing economies, especially in East Africa, limiting capital inflows for infrastructure, innovation, and job creation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing weakness, with major indices declining, particularly in September, which historically has been the weakest month for stocks [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the last trading day of August, major indices fell, with the Nasdaq dropping over 1% and Nvidia and chip stocks declining more than 3% [1]. - The S&P 500 index has risen 17% since early May, reaching a valuation of 22 times expected earnings, comparable to the late internet bubble [4]. Group 2: Seasonal Trends and Challenges - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 has a 56% chance of declining in September, with an average drop of 1.17%, and this probability increases to 58% in presidential election years [3]. - September is expected to bring significant macroeconomic challenges, including key non-farm payroll reports and inflation data, along with a Federal Reserve meeting to decide on interest rates [3]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Investors are facing bubble risks as hedge funds have reached an 80th percentile in stock exposure, indicating overextended market positioning [4]. - There is an anticipated reduction in buying support as pension funds and mutual funds will rebalance portfolios, potentially leading to increased selling pressure [4][5]. - Retail investor activity is expected to slow down in September, which is typically a low participation month for retail investors [5]. Group 4: Volatility and Uncertainty - September and October are historically the months with the highest stock market volatility, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) typically hovering around 20 during this period [8]. - There is a growing caution among traders regarding downside risks, as indicated by the rising costs of put options [8]. - Policy uncertainty is heightened with the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and potential economic data that could influence interest rate decisions [8][9]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Analysts suggest that despite the current volatility, investors should consider increasing stock holdings, viewing potential market pullbacks as buying opportunities [9].

Group 1 - The pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve and the resurgence of global trade tensions have heightened market risk aversion, leading to declines in emerging market stocks and currencies [1] - The Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Markets Index fell by 0.9%, ending a rally that had reached a three-year high, while the MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index dropped by 0.3%, with the South Korean won being a major contributor to the decline [1] - The Trump administration's announcement of new tariffs on the semiconductor and advanced technology sectors, along with export restrictions, has increased policy uncertainty [2] Group 2 - Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has intensified the power struggle between the President and the Fed, with Cook's legal team indicating plans to challenge the dismissal [3] - The market reacted to this event with a 0.3% drop in the dollar index, a 0.6% increase in gold prices, and rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields, reflecting investor concerns over increasing inflation pressures [3] - Major tech stocks in emerging markets, such as Alibaba and Tencent, experienced declines, while the South Korean won faced pressure due to a 15% tariff on goods and significant investment challenges from the U.S. [3] Group 3 - A high-level trade delegation from China, led by Vice Minister Li Chenggang, is set to visit Washington, signaling a potential thaw in U.S.-China trade relations [4] - This visit follows the Trump administration's recent decision to pause new tariffs on Chinese goods for 90 days, aiming to address several contentious issues [4] - Analysts view the Chinese delegation's visit as a positive sign for potential agreements between Trump and Xi Jinping, contingent on progress in trade negotiations [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices have risen to a near two-week high of $3,385, driven by concerns over potential U.S. government intervention in the Federal Reserve's independence and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September [1] - The market currently anticipates an 84.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, a significant increase from 61.9% a month ago, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [2] - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, with key resistance levels at $3,400–$3,410, and potential upward targets at $3,439 and $3,500 if these levels are breached [3] Group 2 - Initial support for gold is at $3,325, with further potential declines to $3,285 and $3,270 if this level is broken [3] - The rise in gold prices reflects market reactions to policy uncertainty and interest rate cut expectations, with increased volatility expected ahead of global economic data releases [3] - The performance of upcoming economic data could influence gold prices, with stronger data potentially limiting gold's gains due to a rebound in the dollar [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding future interest rate cuts create significant uncertainty in monetary policy, even if a rate cut in September is likely [1][4][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference was interpreted as a strong signal for a potential rate cut in September, but it also highlighted increasing internal divisions within the Fed [3][4]. - Powell indicated that the balance of risks is shifting, with rising downward risks in the labor market, suggesting a need for policy adjustments [3][6]. - The market reacted positively, with major stock indices rising and bond yields falling, indicating strong expectations for a September rate cut [4][5]. Group 2: Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve is divided into three camps: - The "doves" advocating for multiple rate cuts due to concerns over labor market weakness [7]. - The "hawks" opposing rate cuts, citing persistent inflation risks [7]. - The "centrists" favoring a cautious approach of one rate cut followed by observation [7]. - This division complicates the outlook for future monetary policy, making it difficult to predict subsequent actions after a potential September cut [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The possibility of a "one-and-done" scenario, where only a single rate cut occurs, remains a viable option due to the internal tensions within the Fed [8]. - Future monetary policy decisions will heavily depend on upcoming employment and inflation data, which will influence the Fed's internal dynamics [9]. - The next FOMC meeting will be crucial as it will provide updated economic forecasts and insights into the Fed's future rate path, which may be more significant than the immediate decision on a rate cut [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond (JGB) market is facing significant pressure due to rising yields, driven by fiscal concerns and policy uncertainties, leading to a "buyer vacuum" risk in the market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Rising Yields - Recent data shows that the yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds reached over 2.67%, the highest level since 1999, while the 10-year yield closed at 1.615%, the highest since October 2008 [2]. - Year-to-date, the yield on 20-year JGBs has increased by nearly 45% [2]. - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to raise the provisional interest rate for government bonds to 2.6%, the highest level in 17 years, reflecting recent market yield averages plus a historical volatility adjustment [2]. Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - The loss of a majority in the House of Councillors by the ruling coalition has heightened concerns about Japan's fiscal policy, leading to expectations of increased fiscal expansion [3]. - Analysts suggest that the combination of fiscal deficit risks and policy uncertainties is contributing to the rising yields in the JGB market [3]. Group 3: Demand-Supply Imbalance - The demand side of the JGB market is changing, with traditional buyers like life insurance companies reducing their bond purchases [4]. - The Bank of Japan's move towards normalizing monetary policy has led to a significant reduction in its bond purchasing scale, creating a supply-demand mismatch in the market [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Caution - The Bank of Japan is maintaining a cautious approach to monetary policy normalization, avoiding rapid changes that could lead to market volatility [5]. - Despite pressure from U.S. officials for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, the central bank has kept its policy rate at around 0.5% since its last increase in January [5][6]. - Inflation levels in Japan have remained above target, with the core consumer price index rising 3.1% year-on-year in July, complicating the Bank of Japan's policy decisions [6].