截至 4 月 27 日收盘，伦敦现货黄金价格报 3316.26 美元 / 盎司，较前一交易日下跌 32.24 美元，跌幅 0.96%，盘中最低触及 3264.99 美元 / 盎司关键支撑位，最高冲至 3370.58 美元 / 盎司，单日波动区间超百美元。纽约黄金期货主力合约收于 3330.2 美 元 / 盎司，跌幅 0.55%，成交量较前一日放大 15%，显示多空分歧加剧。 美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制金价 技术面与资金流向：高位震荡格局延续 1. 关键支撑与阻力位 后市展望：滞胀风险与政策转向的双重逻辑 当前黄金市场处于 "滞胀交易" 与 "政策博弈" 的十字路口。尽管短期受美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制，但全球央行购金、债务 危机与贸易摩擦等长期逻辑仍未改变。投资者需保持灵活，在美元强弱、通胀数据与政策信号中捕捉趋势，将黄金作为资产组 合的 "稳定器" 而非 "冲锋号"。 1. 美元指数技术性反弹 2. 美联储鹰派言论推动美元指数当日上涨 0.3% 至 99.5862，创近一周新高。尽管市场对 6 月降息概率预期仍达 66%，但鲍威 尔在 IMF 会议上强调 "通胀风险优先于短期市场波动"，并警告特朗普政府加征 ...

智通财经APP获悉，截至4月25日当周，标普500指数在关税担忧缓和与财报季开启的双重利好下已突破 5500点整数关口，令指数距离高盛设定的5300点短期目标已高出225点，较5900点的12个月目标价也仅 剩375点的上行空间。截至 4 月 25 日收盘，标普 500 指数已涨至 5525.21 点。但在这轮由科技股领涨的 行情背后，高盛首席美股策略师戴维·科斯汀却敲响警钟：下周将有41%的标普500成分股披露业绩，企 业投资决策可能因政策不确定性加剧而踩下刹车。 面对经济放缓信号，高盛建议投资者聚焦现金回报能力。科斯汀观察到，"近几个月市场明显偏好派息 股而非成长股，这种模式通常出现在经济下行周期"。数据显示，当前标普500指数股息率已升至1.8%， 与十年期美债收益率倒挂幅度收窄至30个基点，显示债券替代效应正在显现。 随着财报季进入核心时段，市场将迎来关键验证期。高盛特别提示，需密切关注企业对于资本支出计 划、库存水平及供应链布局的表述，这些细节将揭示政策不确定性对企业决策的实质性影响。在财政赤 字与货币政策转向的双重压力下，美股或将迎来估值逻辑的重构时刻。 在具体支出类别中，人工智能巨头撑起了资本支 ...

Group 1: Core Concerns - The Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report indicates that 73% of respondents identify "global trade risk" as their primary concern, more than double the percentage from the previous report in November [1][3] - Half of the respondents express concerns about "policy uncertainty," reflecting anxiety over the current policy environment, which includes trade, fiscal, and monetary policies [1][4] - "Sustainability of U.S. government debt," which was the top concern in last year's report, has dropped to third place, yet remains a significant issue due to rising debt levels and potential impacts on market confidence in the dollar [1][5] Group 2: Market Implications - The escalation of global trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and other major economies, poses a significant threat to global economic growth and financial market stability [3] - Policy uncertainty complicates market predictions and investment decisions, increasing market volatility [4] - The complex and uncertain market outlook necessitates diversified investment strategies and enhanced risk management practices to mitigate exposure to trade and policy risks [6] Group 3: Strategic Responses - Companies and investors are advised to diversify their investment portfolios to reduce risk exposure from single markets or assets [6] - Strengthening risk management, especially in supply chain management and market forecasting, is crucial to address risks arising from trade policies and uncertainty [6] - Continuous monitoring of policy developments is essential for timely adjustments in investment strategies and business plans [6]

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.74% to 5525.21 points, the Nasdaq rising 1.26% to 17382.94 points, and the Dow Jones increasing slightly by 0.05% to 40113.5 points [4] - The S&P 500 index recorded a cumulative increase of 4.59% for the week, while the Nasdaq saw a rise of 6.73%, and the Dow Jones increased by 2.48% [4] Group 2: Tesla's Performance and Developments - Tesla's stock surged nearly 10%, closing at $284.95 per share, with a market capitalization of $917.8 billion [6] - The U.S. government is easing regulations on autonomous driving, allowing non-commercial test vehicles to bypass certain compliance processes, which supports Tesla's plans for launching the Cybercab fleet in Texas [9] - Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings report showed a significant decline in net profit by 70.6% year-over-year, with total revenue at $19.34 billion, down 9.3% compared to the previous year [9] Group 3: Financial Stability Concerns - The Federal Reserve's latest financial stability report highlights rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty, and concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt as top potential risks to the financial system [10] - 73% of respondents in the survey indicated that global trade risks are their primary concern, more than double the percentage from the previous report in November [15] - Half of the respondents expressed that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, with an increase in this concern compared to the same period last year [15]

美联储金融稳定报告：全球贸易战和政策不确定性是金融稳定的最大风险 美联储周五公布的最新金融稳定报告显示，全球贸易风险上升、总体政策不确定性以及美国债务的可持 续性高居美国金融体系潜在风险的榜首。这是自特朗普重返白宫以来，美联储首次对金融风险进行半年 一次的调查。73%的受访者表示，全球贸易风险是他们最担心的问题，这一比例是11月份报告的两倍 多。半数受访者认为，总体政策不确定性是最令人担忧的问题，这一比例较去年同期有所上升。调查还 发现，与近期市场动荡相关的问题受到了更多关注，27%的受访者担心美国国债市场的运转，高于去年 秋季的17%。外国对美国资产的撤资和美元的价值也在担忧名单上上升。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，在经历2025年4月2日关税政策超预期导致的流动性冲击之 后，金价迅速冲高，伦敦金现短暂突破3500美元/盎司，而后由于特朗普关税态度出现反复，金价快速 回落至3300美元/盎司。展望未来，中长期金价趋势性上涨周期尚未结束，2025年金价的波动范围为 3209-3905美元/盎司。短期来看，如果特朗普关税态度显著缓和或与各国谈判出现显著进展，金价或将 高位震荡偏弱，而金价波动率则将下行。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 1)逆全球化背景下，美元信用的下行仍可能是中长期趋势：基于贸易逆差的领先指标，美元指数或将进 入较长的下行周期。另一方面，特朗普关税政策较难迅速解决美国财政赤字的问题，而未来的减税措施 落地还将导致美国财政赤字继续上行。而特朗普一系列政策引发美元储备低位被动摇，或导致中长期全 球资金进一步流出美元资产，美元信用或将持续下行。 2)特朗普政策的不确定性仍然偏高：特朗普本轮关税政策不同于2018年，整体的力度和范围大幅上升， 并且后续的关税谈判或将趋势性提高政策不确定性，另外减税等需要国会支持的政策将更难快速通过。 在此期间，金价或仍受到高政策不确定性中枢的支撑。3 ...

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) emphasizes the urgent need for countries to manage their fiscal affairs effectively amid high risks and uncertainties in the current environment [2] - The IMF's latest Fiscal Monitor report indicates that recent tariff measures announced by the U.S. and retaliatory actions from other countries have increased financial market volatility, weakened global growth prospects, and heightened risks [2][3] - The IMF forecasts that global public debt will rise by 2.8 percentage points by 2025, reaching over 95% of GDP, with this trend expected to continue [2] Fiscal Pressure and Debt Levels - The IMF warns that under extreme adverse scenarios, global public debt could reach 117% of GDP by 2027, marking the highest level since World War II, exceeding baseline predictions by nearly 20 percentage points [3] - The rising demand for permanent expenditures, such as defense, is further increasing fiscal pressure on countries already facing high debt levels and strained fiscal conditions [2] - If policy uncertainties escalate, debt levels may rise beyond current estimates, exacerbating the fiscal challenges faced by nations [3]

贸易紧张局势的迅速升级，以及极高水平的政策不确定性，预计将对全球经济活动造成重大冲击。 国际货币基金组织22日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》（简称《报告》），预计2025年美国经济增速将放 缓至1.8%，较1月预测值低0.9个百分点，在发达经济体中下调幅度最大。报告认为，政策不确定性加剧、贸易 紧张局势以及需求势头减弱为预期目标下调主要原因。 校对： 赵燕 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 同时，《报告》将包括美国、英国和加拿大在内的发达经济体2025年的总体通胀预期上调至2.5%，较1月份的 预测上调了0.4个百分点。 《报告》还将2025年全球经济增长预期从年初的3.3%下调至2.8%，2026年预计为3%。 报告指出，全球增长放缓的主要原因是美国关税政策的急剧变化及由此带来的高度政策不确定性。自2025年年 初以来，美国对主要贸易伙伴和关键行业宣布了多轮关税措施，最终在4月2日实施了几乎全面的关税。尽管目 前部分原定加征的关税已被暂停，但这些措施与反制措施叠加，使美国及全球的关税水平升至近一个世纪以来 的最高点 ...

Core Points - The incident highlights the market's high sensitivity to policy news and the current global economic uncertainty [1][5] Group 1: Market Reaction - On April 7, a false report about a potential 90-day tariff suspension led to a significant market rebound, with the Dow Jones index recovering from a 4.3% drop to a 2.3% gain, the S&P 500 from a 4.6% drop to a 3.3% gain, and the Nasdaq from a 5% drop to a 4.3% gain, reflecting a volatility of over 9 percentage points [1] - Major tech stocks like Nvidia and Tesla experienced dramatic fluctuations, with Nvidia bouncing back from an almost 8% drop to a nearly 7.5% gain, and Tesla recovering from a nearly 10% drop to a 4.5% gain [1] Group 2: Market Confidence - The White House's subsequent denial of the tariff suspension news led to a swift market reversal, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.5%, the S&P 500 by 1.1%, and the Nasdaq by 0.9% [2] - Richard Branson expressed concerns over the financial market's instability, warning of disastrous consequences for ordinary Americans and small businesses due to a weakening dollar and rising consumer prices [3] Group 3: Policy Uncertainty - The event underscores the market's vulnerability to policy uncertainty, particularly regarding the Trump administration's tariff policies, which could have broader economic implications [4] - The potential for increased living costs for ordinary Americans and the high debt levels of small businesses raise alarms for market participants [4]

东南亚市场持续动荡。 首先是印尼股市再度全线暴跌，印尼基准股指雅加达综合指数日内一度暴跌超4%，自2021年以来盘中首次跌 破6000点。有分析称，印尼股市暴跌，凸显了市场对印尼新政府政策转向、财政健康状况以及政治干预风险的 担忧。 另外，菲律宾股市也遭遇动荡，一度暂停交易。当地时间3月24日早间，菲律宾证券交易所开盘时间延迟了将 近两个小时，恢复交易后，其基准指数马尼拉综指一度下跌超1%。 据彭博社报道，印尼股市暴跌，凸显了市场对印尼新政府政策转向、财政健康状况以及政治干预风险的担忧。 这些担忧也被认为是股市暴跌的核心原因。 普拉博沃建立的新主权财富基金"达南塔拉"（Danantara），这是印尼效仿新加坡淡马锡打造自己的国有超级 投资公司的尝试，市场对此存在疑虑。 普拉博沃还推出了一项针对学童和孕妇的全国"免费午餐计划"，这项政策预计每年将花费280亿美元，该计划 会给印尼的财政状况带来压力。 另外，印尼缩减增值税上调范围，以及全面削减预算进一步加剧了市场的不安情绪。 投资者担心，印尼正在失去前总统佐科·维多多执政期间建立的财政纪律。法律将政府预算赤字限制在国内生 产总值的3%，但这对于普拉博沃的大型计划 ...