Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a day of oscillation and ended with all three major indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3828.58, up 0.22% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13157.97, up 0.67%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4522.61, up 0.46% [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electronics, which rose by 3.71%, and Computers, which increased by 1.70% [2] - The weakest sectors were Social Services, down 2.04%, and Beauty Care, down 1.36% [2] Market Trends - The market showed a strong performance in the consumer electronics sector, driven by positive news, while the robotics sector continued its strong trend [3] - The chip industry chain was notably active, and liquid-cooled server concept stocks saw fluctuations but ultimately rose [3] - The overall market saw approximately 2200 stocks rise, with over 70 stocks hitting the daily limit up [3] Economic Indicators - The September Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the 5-year LPR at 3.5% and the 1-year LPR at 3% [4] - The People's Bank of China provided insights into the financial industry's achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on long-term perspectives without immediate policy adjustments [4] Market Liquidity and Outlook - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.12 trillion, a decrease of 202.3 billion from the previous trading day [5] - Despite the lack of a significant rebound, the market did not show risk signals, indicating that liquidity remains relatively active [5] - The report suggests that the mid-term upward momentum of the market remains strong, supported by continuous catalysts in the technology sector [5] - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), public utilities, and non-ferrous metals for investment opportunities [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper price fluctuated at a high level before the National Day. The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm is uncertain, and domestic policies may be further strengthened. The recovery of peak - season consumption and high domestic maintenance will support the copper price [2]. - The aluminum price showed a pattern of rising and then falling back to the shock area. Although the inventory continued to accumulate during the peak season, it was still recommended to go long at low prices, and a strategy of going long on AD and short on AL could be considered for aluminum alloy [2]. - The zinc price was expected to fluctuate weakly, with the domestic zinc fundamentals lacking support, and it was recommended to trade with a short bias in the range [2]. - The lead price broke through and then moved sideways, and it was recommended to go long at low prices in the range [2]. - The nickel price was expected to decline in the short - term after the interest - rate cut and remain in a state of oversupply in the long - term. It was recommended to hold short positions moderately at high prices, and stainless steel was recommended for range trading [3]. - The tin price was expected to continue to fluctuate in the upward channel. Due to the tight supply of tin ore and the recovery of downstream consumption, it was recommended for range trading [3]. - The industrial silicon price was expected to fluctuate widely, and it was recommended for short - term long trading or to wait and see. The polysilicon price was expected to fluctuate widely at a high level, and it was recommended to wait and see [3]. - The lithium carbonate price was expected to continue to fluctuate widely, and it was recommended for cautious trading [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **China's Economic Data**: From January to August, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year; in August, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 3.4% [11][13][14][15]. - **US Economic Data**: In August, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 13 fell to 231,000 [16][17][18]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Trend**: The copper price first rose and then fell this week. Domestically, the trading enthusiasm increased after the price center moved down, and it was expected to maintain a high - level shock before the National Day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Currently, domestic smelters are in a high - maintenance period, but with the supplement of imported copper, the supply pressure is not obvious. Terminal consumption is still weak, and the inventory is stable with a slight increase [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The aluminum price showed a pattern of rising and then falling back to the shock area [47]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased steadily. The downstream demand entered the peak - season rhythm, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to increase [2]. 3.4 Zinc - **Price Trend**: The zinc price fluctuated weakly last week, and it was expected to continue the weak shock [65]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc concentrate was loose, and refined zinc production remained high. Terminal consumption was weak, and domestic zinc inventories reached a high for the year [2]. 3.5 Lead - **Price Trend**: The lead price showed a shock - rebound trend, breaking through and then moving sideways [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The inventory decreased, and the replenishment demand of battery enterprises was strong, supporting the spot lead price [2]. 3.6 Nickel - **Price Trend**: The nickel price fluctuated and declined last week, and it was expected to decline in the short - term and remain oversupplied in the long - term [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The refined nickel market was in an oversupply situation, the growth of nickel - iron prices slowed down, and the stainless - steel market had limited demand boost [3]. 3.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: The tin price continued to fluctuate in the upward channel [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry was expected to continue to recover, with inventories at a medium level [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: The industrial silicon price was expected to fluctuate widely [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and organic silicon changed in different directions, and the market risk was relatively large [3]. 3.9 Carbonate Lithium - **Price Trend**: The carbonate lithium price was expected to continue to fluctuate widely [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply was affected by mine - related issues, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal was good, with battery factories increasing production [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [1][3] - The recent job growth in the U.S. has been significantly below expectations, prompting the Fed to take this action, with further rate cuts anticipated in upcoming meetings [3] - Following the announcement, the U.S. stock market initially rose but then reversed gains, with the S&P 500 index turning negative and the Nasdaq down by 0.5% [3] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index fell to 96.22, the lowest level since February 2022, indicating a weakening dollar [6] - The Fed's median projections suggest a further 50 basis points cut in 2025, and 25 basis points cuts in both 2026 and 2027, with expected rates of 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.1% respectively [6] - The rate cut is expected to increase money supply, lower loan rates, and encourage consumption and investment, positively impacting economic growth and market liquidity [6] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the Fed's rate cut may trigger a global wave of central bank rate cuts, potentially benefiting the A-share market in China and leading to a second wave of market rally [9] - Historical analysis shows that during previous Fed rate cuts, growth sectors and interest-sensitive industries in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have benefited from lower interest rates [9] - The Chinese bond market may attract foreign investment due to reduced pressure from U.S.-China interest rate differentials, enhancing the appeal of Chinese government and policy financial bonds [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly higher on September 17, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index showing positive movements, indicating a favorable market sentiment [1][2]. Company Highlights - Alibaba Group (09988.HK) opened up by 2.74%, reaching a new high of HKD 157.7 [3]. - Alibaba announced the completion of a USD 3.2 billion zero-coupon convertible senior notes issuance due in 2032, aimed at enhancing its cloud infrastructure and international business operations [5]. - The initial conversion rate for the notes is set at 5.1773 American depositary shares per USD 1,000 principal amount, translating to a conversion price of USD 193.15 per share [5]. - There are ongoing discussions between Alibaba and WeChat regarding a potential collaboration that would allow Taobao to operate mini-programs within WeChat, facilitating direct transactions [5]. Market Trends - Other tech stocks showed strong performance, with Baidu (09888.HK) rising over 8%, NIO (09866.HK) increasing by over 7%, and JD.com (09618.HK) up by over 3% [6]. - New listing Health 160 (02656.HK) surged over 160% on its debut [6]. Market Outlook - According to recent reports, the Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to lead in revenue and net profit growth by Q2 2025, with projected year-on-year growth rates of 14.43% for revenue and 16.18% for net profit [7]. - The impact of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to benefit growth sectors and interest-sensitive industries in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with a particular focus on AI computing, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals [7].

有色金属日报 2025-9-17 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美国零售销售数据好于预期，铜价震荡回调，昨日伦铜收跌 0.71%至 10117 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约 收至 80900 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 铜库存减少 1675 至 150950 吨，注销仓单比例下滑至 10.5%， Cash/3M 贴水 59.3 美元/吨。国内方面，昨日上期所铜仓单增加 0.3 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market indices closed lower on September 16, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.35% and the S&P 500 down by 0.12% [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.05%, reaching 8540 points, marking a new high since February 2022, with a year-to-date increase of over 26% [1][2] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla increasing by 2.38%, while Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia experienced slight declines [3] - The Nasdaq 100 index saw a minor decrease of 0.03%, while the WenDe US Tech Giants Index rose by 0.31% [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks performed strongly, with several stocks like ROBO.AI and INTERCONT seeing significant gains of 42.33% and 29.23% respectively [4] - Notable increases were also observed in other Chinese tech stocks, with Baidu up by 5.04% and NIO up by 3% [5] Gold Market - The gold market experienced a surge, with spot gold prices rising above $3700 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of $1076 per ounce [5] Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut, with market predictions suggesting a reduction of at least 25 basis points [6][7] - There is a possibility of dissent within the Fed, which could lead to a more cautious approach to future rate cuts [8] Impact on Chinese Assets - The anticipated Fed rate cut may trigger a global trend of central bank rate reductions, potentially benefiting the A-share market in China [9] - Analysts suggest that sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, may see positive impacts from a lower interest rate environment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of U.S. stock indices, the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the potential impacts on global markets, particularly focusing on Chinese assets and the RMB exchange rate. Market Performance - As of September 16, U.S. stock indices showed a collective decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 45,723.21, down 0.35% year-to-date increase of 7.47% [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.05%, reaching 8,540 points, marking a year-to-date increase of over 26% [1][2] - Notable performances among tech giants included Tesla rising by 2.38% and Amazon by 1.51%, while Google and Microsoft experienced slight declines [2] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut of at least 25 basis points, with a small chance of a 50 basis point cut during the upcoming meeting [6][10] - There are concerns about potential dissent within the Fed, which could lead to a divided vote, marking a significant moment since 2019 [6][10] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's decision could trigger a global wave of interest rate cuts, impacting markets worldwide [11] Impact on Chinese Assets - The anticipated Fed rate cuts may provide a boost to the A-share market, potentially leading to a second wave of upward momentum in the "golden September and silver October" period [11] - Historical analysis indicates that during previous Fed rate cuts, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed varied performance, with growth sectors benefiting from low interest rates [12] - The Fed's actions could alleviate pressure on the China-U.S. interest rate differential, attracting foreign investment into Chinese bonds, particularly government and policy financial bonds [12][13] RMB Exchange Rate - The article suggests that the Fed's rate cuts and the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy may exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index, providing upward momentum for the RMB [13] - It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable, with limited risks of rapid appreciation or significant depreciation [13]

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 沪铜近期实现向上突破，站稳8万整数关口，创出二季度以来新高 。美国8月非农数据不及预期，且大幅下修前值。美国8月PPI低于 预期，通胀较为温和，市场计价美联储年内3次降息的可能性，美 元指数走弱，提振铜价。近期铜价的走高一定程度抑制了国内下 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggesting holding a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggesting range trading; bullish on glass, suggesting buying on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, suggesting waiting or buying on dips for short - term trading; bullish on aluminum, suggesting buying on dips after a pull - back; neutral on nickel, suggesting waiting or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggesting range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggesting range trading [1][11][13][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, suggesting range trading; suggesting a short 01 long 05 arbitrage strategy for soda ash [1][22][25][27][30][33][34][37] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggesting range trading; neutral on PTA, suggesting range trading; bullish on apples, suggesting a range - bound and upward - biased trend; bearish on jujubes, suggesting a range - bound and downward - biased trend [1][38][39][40][41] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, suggesting shorting on rallies; neutral on corn, suggesting range trading; neutral on soybean meal, suggesting range trading; bullish on oils, suggesting a high - level range - bound trend with a buying - on - dips strategy [1][42][44][47][49][50] Core Views - The global economic and policy environment, including factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decisions, trade policies, and domestic macro - policies, have a significant impact on various futures markets [11][13][18][22][25][37][43][44][47][50][53][54][55] - Seasonal factors, supply - and - demand fundamentals, and cost factors are important considerations for investment decisions in different futures markets [8][10][11][13][18][22][25][31][39][40][43][44][47][49][50][51][52][53][54][55] - Different futures varieties have different investment strategies based on their specific market conditions, such as range trading, buying on dips, shorting on rallies, and arbitrage strategies [1][5][7][8][9][11][13][15][16][18][19][21][22][24][26][28][30][33][34][36][38][39][40][42][44][46][48][50][55] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - share markets experienced a pull - back after a rally on Friday. Policy support is positive, and it is recommended to rebalance in high - probability areas. Medium - to long - term outlook is bullish, suggesting buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market is gradually recovering from previous adjustments, but investors remain cautious. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Pit - mouth coal price increases have slowed, and the market is in a stalemate. A range - trading strategy is recommended [7][8] - **Rebar**: Futures prices rebounded on Friday. The fundamental supply - and - demand situation is weak in the short term, but traditional demand seasons may bring opportunities. A range - trading strategy is recommended with a focus on support levels [8] - **Glass**: Supply and demand conditions have improved. With the approaching of the traditional peak season and potential positive factors, a buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are rising in a range. With weakening of the US dollar and potential consumption recovery, prices are expected to remain strong. A range - trading or buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is supported, and the production of aluminum is stable. Demand is entering the peak season, and a buying - on - dips strategy or an arbitrage strategy is recommended [13] - **Nickel**: Supply concerns and macro - factors affect prices. In the short term, prices are affected by the macro - environment, and in the long term, supply is in surplus. A shorting - on - rallies strategy is recommended [18] - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to be supported. A range - trading strategy is recommended [18][19] - **Gold and Silver**: Due to weakening US economic data and expectations of interest - rate cuts, prices are expected to have support. A range - trading strategy is recommended [19][20][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Supply is high, demand is mediocre, and exports face challenges. Prices are expected to be range - bound, and key factors such as macro - data and exports should be monitored [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is affected by factors such as spot prices and demand. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and downstream stocking and export conditions should be monitored [25] - **Styrene**: Cost and demand factors influence prices. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and factors such as oil prices and supply - and - demand fundamentals should be monitored [27] - **Rubber**: Overseas raw material prices are falling, and market sentiment is bearish. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and support levels should be monitored [29] - **Urea**: Supply and demand are weak, and inventories are increasing. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be monitored [30][31][33] - **Methanol**: Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Key factors such as coal prices and downstream demand should be monitored [33] - **Polyolefins**: The "Golden September and Silver October" season may boost demand, but supply and cost factors limit price increases. A range - trading strategy is recommended [34][35] - **Soda Ash**: The market is in a tug - of - war between expectations and reality. A short 01 long 05 arbitrage strategy is recommended [37] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - and - demand conditions are improving, but new - crop production may bring downward pressure. Hedging preparations are recommended [38] - **PTA**: Recent inventory reduction is good, but long - term supply increases and weak oil prices may lead to price drops. A range - trading strategy is recommended [39][40] - **Apples**: Early - maturing apples are priced higher than last year, and the market is expected to be range - bound and upward - biased [40] - **Jujubes**: Consumption is weak, and prices are under pressure. A range - bound and downward - biased trend is expected [41] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large in the short term, and prices are under pressure. Policy support may bring some rebounds. A short - selling strategy with stop - profit and potential arbitrage opportunities is recommended [42][43][44] - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are balanced, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as cold - storage egg releases and chicken culling [44] - **Corn**: New - crop supply and cost factors affect prices. A range - trading strategy and an arbitrage strategy are recommended, and factors such as weather and policies should be monitored [45][46][47] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean prices are expected to be stable, and domestic supply - and - demand conditions are changing. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and key factors such as US - China trade relations should be monitored [48][49][50] - **Oils**: Short - term prices are affected by various factors, but support levels exist. A buying - on - dips strategy and an arbitrage strategy are recommended [50][51][52][53][54][55]

Core Viewpoint - *ST Zhengping's stock reached the daily limit with a price of 3.83 yuan, reflecting a 4.93% increase and a total market capitalization of 2.68 billion yuan, driven by factors in infrastructure construction, cultural tourism development, and non-ferrous metal mining [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company operates in infrastructure construction, cultural tourism and industrial comprehensive development, and non-ferrous metal mining, also providing infrastructure investment consulting services [2]. - Infrastructure construction is a crucial support for national economic development, and increased government investment in this area may present more business opportunities for the company [2]. - The cultural tourism sector is recovering and developing, which may benefit the company's cultural tourism development business [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - Recent market trends show increased activity in the infrastructure construction, cultural tourism, and non-ferrous metal sectors, indicating heightened investor interest [2]. - The tourism peak season is approaching, leading to increased investor attention on the cultural tourism sector [2]. - Non-ferrous metal prices have experienced fluctuations, with some metal prices rising, positively impacting related mining companies' stock performance [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - There may have been positive technical signals for the stock, such as MACD golden cross and BOLL channel breakout, which could attract more capital inflow and contribute to the stock's limit-up performance [2].