金十期货正在直播 美国法院叫停总统关税，黄金避险情绪降温，期市如何应对？期货资深研究员Leo正在解读黄金、原油 及其他热门期货品种的市场行情，洞察品种基本面以及大宗商品的未来走势。立即进入直播间。 相关链接 ...

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 22, A-share market indices declined, with Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% to 3380.19, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.72% to 10219.62, and ChiNext Index down 0.96% to 2045.57. The trading volume was 1.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 70 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3913.86, down 2.52 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 22, the coke weighted index closed at 1407.4 yuan, down 12.1, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 827.7 yuan, down 14.2. Coke supply is ample due to high coking enterprise profits and production, while steel mill iron - water output may have peaked. Coking coal supply is stable with domestic mine复产 and slightly reduced Mongolian imports, but port inventory is rising due to weak demand [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - After five - day decline, ICE sugar rebounded on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar futures contract 2509 rose in the morning on May 22 but fell in the afternoon due to long - liquidation. In the night session, it declined due to falling crude oil prices. In April 2025, China's imports of syrup and sugar premix totaled 85,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 106,000 tons [1]. Rubber - On May 22, Shanghai rubber futures had a technical rebound during the day and narrow - range fluctuations at night. In April 2025, China's rubber tire production was 102 million pieces, up 3.1% year - on - year, and 1 - 4 month production was 385.58 million pieces, up 3.7%. Synthetic rubber production in April was 743,000 tons, up 15.2% year - on - year, and 1 - 4 month production was 2.947 million tons, up 11.3% [2]. Palm Oil - On May 22, palm oil futures declined within a range, with the main contract P2509 closing at 7994 yuan, down 1.36%. In May 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production is expected to increase by about 5% month - on - month, and exports by about 10% [2][3]. Soybean Meal - On May 22, CBOT soybean futures rose. As of May 15, US soybean export sales increased by 9% week - on - week. US soybean planting and emergence are better than normal, but recent rain may delay Midwest planting. In the domestic market, on May 22, soybean meal futures were stable, and about 12 million tons of imported soybeans are expected to arrive in May, leading to a supply - abundant market [3]. Live Hogs - On May 22, live hog futures declined slightly, with the LH2509 contract closing at 13,580 yuan/ton, down 0.51%. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, slaughterhouses have stocking demand, but hot weather, diet changes, and weak fresh pork sales lead to a supply - abundant market. In the long - term, high sow inventory will keep the market weak [4]. Shanghai Copper - In early May, China's industrial added - value growth slowed, and real - estate investment was weak, leading to lower - than - expected copper demand. The global copper concentrate supply is abundant, and SHFE copper inventory increased. The import window opened, and short - term copper is in an adjustment period, with a key support at 77,500 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - On May 22, iron ore futures rose slightly, with the 2509 contract closing at 727 yuan, up 0.14%. Overseas shipments increased, arrivals decreased, and port inventory decreased slightly. Steel mills' high profitability limits short - term production cuts, and iron ore will likely fluctuate [5]. Asphalt - On May 22, asphalt futures rose slightly, with the 2507 contract closing at 3539 yuan, up 0.45%. In June, refinery asphalt production will increase. Northern demand is rising, but southern demand may be affected by the rainy season, and asphalt will likely fluctuate [5]. Logs - On May 22, log futures opened at 778.5, closed at 777.5, and increased positions by 335 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Port inventory decreased to a three - month low, but overall demand is weak, and the market is waiting for price stabilization [5]. Cotton - On the night of May 22, Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13,450 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 46 lots. In Pakistan, new cotton is on the market with limited transactions, and spinning mills are reducing inventory [6]. Steel - On May 22, rebar futures rb2510 closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil futures hc2510 closed at 3210 yuan/ton. This week, steel production decreased seasonally. Rebar demand declined significantly, and mill inventory increased. The market is now driven by fundamentals, and negative feedback expectations should be monitored [6]. Alumina - On May 22, alumina futures ao2509 closed at 3216 yuan/ton. The impact of the Guinea incident is uncertain, and short - term spot is tight, but supply may increase as profits recover, and price corrections should be watched [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 22, Shanghai aluminum futures al2507 closed at 20,210 yuan/ton. The impact of the Guinea incident on bauxite supply is to be evaluated. Aluminum demand is seasonally weak, and short - term processing enterprise operating rates will decline. Low inventory supports prices, but macro - negatives and weak demand limit upside [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose 44 yuan/ton to 63,380 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was stable at 63,050 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade at 61,450 yuan/ton. The market is weak, with few trades, and cost support is weakening [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the weaker-than-expected results of the U.S. Treasury auction and its potential impact on gold prices, suggesting that bullish sentiment in the gold market may strengthen as a result [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury auction results were below expectations, indicating potential concerns in the bond market [1] - The gold market is experiencing renewed bullish activity, possibly driven by the recent auction results [1] - The article features insights from a senior futures researcher, Leo, who is analyzing market trends and the fundamentals of various commodities [1]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 16, A-share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40% to 3367.46, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.07% to 10179.60, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.19% to 2039.45. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.0895 trillion yuan, a decrease of 62.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index continued to adjust on May 16, closing at 3889.08, down 18.11 from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 16, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1447.9 yuan, down 27.4 from the previous day. The weighted coking coal index also remained weak, closing at 853.8 yuan, down 33.3 from the previous day [1]. - For coke, steel mills proposed the first - round price cut after the holiday. Relevant national ministries are promoting crude steel output control, and the MIIT is revising the implementation method for steel industry capacity replacement. In the short - term, coke supply elasticity is better than coking coal, and the increase in hot metal output is limited. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 7 yuan/ton this period [1]. - For coking coal, Mongolian 5 raw coal was reported at 815 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The supply is loose, mine production is stable, and the refined coal inventory continued to increase this period [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the expected recovery of sugar cane harvesting progress in central - southern Brazil, ICE sugar futures fell on Friday. Affected by the decline in ICE sugar, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, which declined slightly. The ISO raised its forecast for the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons from the previous 4.88 million tons, due to lower - than - expected production in India and Pakistan [2]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed slightly lower on the night of May 16. As of May 16, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 206,043 tons, an increase of 2800 tons from the previous day, and the futures warehouse receipts were 200,270 tons, a decrease of 230 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 74,793 tons, a decrease of 4838 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 70,257 tons, a decrease of 4435 tons [2]. Soybean Meal - The Sino - US economic and trade talks reached an important consensus, which boosted the price of US soybeans. However, the good start of US soybeans in 2025 and the good planting and growing conditions exerted pressure on soybean futures prices. Brazil's soybean harvest is basically completed, with an expected output of 168 million tons, resulting in a generally loose market supply [3]. - In the domestic market, on May 16, soybean meal futures prices fluctuated. The M2509 contract closed at 2899 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82%. Since May, the arrival volume of imported soybeans has increased rapidly, the oil refinery operating rate has continuously increased, and the soybean meal inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, but the increase is slow and still at a low level. With the upcoming peak arrival of imported soybeans, the market expects that the demand of terminal feed and breeding enterprises may be less than the supply of soybean meal, so the soybean meal market may maintain a weak and volatile trend [3][4]. Live Pigs - On May 16, live pig futures prices were weak. The LH2509 contract closed at 13,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87%. In May, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, and the slaughter plan of large - scale pig enterprises has increased month - on - month. Affected by the narrowing price difference between fat and lean pigs, farmers are more willing to slaughter medium - and large - sized pigs, but have a general willingness to slaughter standard pigs and still have a mentality of holding prices. Currently, the overall consumer demand is weak, the consumer diet structure has been adjusted, and there are many alternative consumptions, resulting in poor sales of fresh pork. The market is generally in a situation of loose supply, and live pig futures prices may be weakly volatile. Short - term attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live pigs [4]. Iron Ore - On May 16, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated and closed down 0.95% at 728 yuan. Last week, the overseas shipment and arrival volume of iron ore both decreased month - on - month, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the supply level tightened. The hot metal output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. In the short - term, iron ore prices may fluctuate [4]. Asphalt - On May 16, the main 2506 contract of asphalt futures fluctuated and closed up 0.75% at 3510 yuan. Recently, due to the improvement of refinery production profits, the production load has been increased to varying degrees, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate has continued to increase month - on - month, the inventory level has rebounded, and the shipment volume has increased month - on - month. However, affected by rainy weather, the demand is still hindered. In the short - term, asphalt prices may fluctuate [5]. Cotton - On the night of May 16, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13,415 yuan/ton. As of May 19, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Exchange was 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 2 lots compared with the previous day. Future attention should be paid to the weather conditions in major cotton - producing countries and the impact of macro - policies on supply and demand expectations [5]. Shanghai Copper - Currently, Shanghai copper is in a high - level volatile state. On the supply side, the global copper concentrate supply is loose, but overseas smelter maintenance and low domestic inventory cause supply disruptions. On the demand side, the demand in the new energy vehicle and infrastructure sectors is resilient, while weak real estate investment drags down the overall demand. At the macro level, the Fed's interest rate policy remains unchanged, the US dollar fluctuates, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks and changes in tariff policies affect market sentiment. Technically, the main contract of Shanghai copper has support around 77,000 yuan and resistance above 78,500 yuan. Overall, with multiple factors intertwined, without major unexpected events, Shanghai copper prices may fluctuate within the current range. Attention should be paid to the dynamic changes of macro - policies, supply and demand, and inventory [6]. Logs - On May 16, the 2507 contract of logs opened at 788, with a minimum of 779.5, a maximum of 794, and closed at 783, with an increase of 1585 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support at 780 and the resistance at 790. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 760 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. The port log inventory has dropped to a two - month low, and the outbound volume has increased slightly. The overall demand is still weak, and there is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Attention should be paid to import data, downstream purchasing, and traders' willingness to hold prices [7]. Steel - After the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, there has been a rush to ship on the Sino - US route, reversing the previous pessimistic expectation of reduced demand due to potential tariff increases. Recently, the rush to ship has brought a wave of demand for the black - colored commodities, but the tariffs are only reduced, not completely eliminated, which essentially overdrafts future demand, and there is still some pressure on the export side in the future. In addition, the off - season is approaching, and domestic demand tends to weaken seasonally. Currently, it is difficult for the demand side to improve further. The overall supply - demand pattern of the black - colored commodities remains oversupplied. In the short - term, supported by strong current conditions, steel prices may fluctuate and consolidate, but in the medium - term, the weak trend remains unchanged [7][9]. Alumina - On the raw material side, Guinea has been actively shipping before the rainy season. After the arrival of this batch of goods, the domestic port inventory will increase, and the raw material supply will be supplemented, leading to a decline in the price of bauxite. On the supply side of alumina, due to the previously low spot price, some domestic smelters have carried out maintenance and production reduction operations to control the supply, and traders also have a sentiment of holding prices and惜售. The oversupply situation of alumina has improved. On the demand side, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the upper limit, and the demand for alumina is relatively stable. Overall, the fundamentals of alumina may be in a state of slightly converging supply and stable demand, but due to the decline in raw material prices, the cost support has weakened [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - Fundamentally, on the supply side of electrolytic aluminum, the new domestic production capacity increment is sporadic, and the operating production capacity is approaching the industry "ceiling", so the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is relatively stable. On the demand side, in the domestic market, the downstream aluminum processing industry is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, and the downstream operating rate has declined; in the overseas market, due to the easing of Sino - US tariff attitudes, there is some demand boost for domestic exports, and the overall demand maintains a slight increase. With relatively stable supply, the industrial inventory is continuously decreasing. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly increasing demand [9].

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2505 | 22905 | 22910 | 23100 | 22840 | 160 | 0.70 | 315 | -55 | | 沪锌 | 2506 | 2288 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of easing U.S. tariffs has led to a continued pullback in gold prices, prompting analysis of future market performance in commodities [1] Group 1 - The live analysis session will focus on the current market trends for gold and other popular futures [1] - The session will provide insights into the fundamental aspects of these commodities and their future trajectories [1]

Report Basic Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: April 30, 2025 [2] Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7063 | 7101 | 7122 | 7063 | 26 | 0.37 | 44163 | -426 | | Plastic 2505 | 7348 | 7353 | 7383 | 7331 | -14 | -0.19 | 23834 | -8998 | | Plastic 2509 | 7135 | 7164 | 7189 | 7133 | 16 | 0.22 | 482064 | -10575 | | PP2601 | 7013 | 7054 | 7070 | 7013 | 19 | 0.27 | 16157 | 217 | | PP2505 | 7179 | 7195 | 7219 | 7178 | 3 | 0.04 | 19227 | -4703 | | PP2509 | 7088 | 7112 | 7128 | 7085 | 10 | 0.14 | 397139 | -9623 | [5] Market Analysis Market Review and Outlook - Lianplastic L2509 opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7122 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-0.6%), with a trading volume of 260,000 lots and an open interest increase of 8592 to 490,656 lots. PP main contract 09 closed at 7092 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan, a decline of 0.27%, with an open interest increase of 4289 to 401,400 lots. The incident at Iranian ports caused supply disruptions. China's import dependence on Iranian polyethylene is about 3.3% and has been decreasing year by year. Among the specific varieties, LDPE is more affected, with Iranian imports accounting for about 18% of total LDPE imports. Concerns about import disruptions led to a sharp increase in LDPE prices. In the short term, sentiment pushed up the price of plastics. According to the news, the ports resumed cargo import and export on the 27th, weakening the impact on the supply side. The news stimulated the L futures market to rise. However, the current high inventory and the weakening of the peak demand season make it difficult to support continuous upward movement. PP has a relatively low import dependence and is less affected by this incident. Currently, the intensive maintenance of upstream PP plants provides temporary support to the supply side. However, the restricted export of downstream finished products and the fading peak season lead to a marginal weakening of demand, intensifying the supply-demand game, and the price is consolidating in a narrow range at a low level. [6] Industry News - The inventory level of major producers today is 660,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous working day, an increase of 0.76%; the inventory at the same time last year was 720,000 tons. The weakening of the PP futures market dragged down the atmosphere of the spot market. Some producers lowered their prices, weakening the cost support for the supply. Before the holiday, traders, based on the need for cash collection and inventory reduction, mainly sold at reduced prices. The pre-holiday stocking of downstream enterprises has basically ended, and their intention to enter the market for procurement during the day was not high, and most of the transactions in the morning were mediocre. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing in the morning was 7080 - 7300 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of East China wire drawing was 7170 - 7300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of South China wire drawing was 7180 - 7380 yuan/ton. The PE market price was weakly adjusted. In the North China region, some linear prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high-pressure prices fell by 20 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low-pressure prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; in the East China region, some high-pressure prices fell by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and some linear and low-pressure prices rose or fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; in the South China region, some high-pressure prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low-pressure and linear prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The price of LLDPE in the North China region was 7340 - 7600 yuan/ton, the price of LLDPE in the East China region was 7350 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the price of LLDPE in the South China region was 7550 - 7780 yuan/ton. [7][8] Data Overview - The report includes charts such as L basis, PP basis, L-PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two-oil inventory, and two-oil inventory year-on-year increase or decrease rate, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information. [10][12][14]

夜盘期货开盘，氧化铝、原油、纸浆、低硫燃油、燃油、菜粕跌逾1%，沥青、玻璃等下跌；沪银、国 际铜、沪铜等上涨。 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: April 29, 2025 - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Iran port incident caused supply disruptions. The import dependence of domestic polyethylene on Iranian sources is about 3.3% and decreasing annually. LDPE is more affected, with Iranian imports accounting for about 18% of total LDPE imports. The import interruption concern led to a significant increase in LDPE prices. However, the supply - side impact has weakened as the port resumed cargo import and export on the 27th. With high inventory and weakening demand peak season, it's difficult to support continuous upward movement of plastics. [4] - PP has a low import dependence and was less affected by this incident. Currently, upstream PP device maintenance is intensive, providing temporary support to the supply side. But downstream product exports are restricted and the peak season is fading, resulting in weakening demand and intensified supply - demand game, leading to narrow - range consolidation at low levels. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7063 | 7101 | 7122 | 7063 | 26 | 0.37% | 44163 | - 426 | | Plastic 2505 | 7348 | 7353 | 7383 | 7331 | - 14 | - 0.19% | 23834 | - 8998 | | Plastic 2509 | 7135 | 7164 | 7189 | 7133 | 16 | 0.22% | 482064 | - 10575 | | PP2601 | 7013 | 7054 | 7070 | 7013 | 19 | 0.27% | 16157 | 217 | | PP2505 | 7179 | 7195 | 7219 | 7178 | 3 | 0.04% | 19227 | - 4703 | | PP2509 | 7088 | 7112 | 7128 | 7085 | 10 | 0.14% | 397139 | - 9623 | [3] 3.2 Industry News - The inventory level of major producers today is 655,000 tons, a 5,000 - ton increase (0.77%) from the previous workday, compared to 710,000 tons in the same period last year. [5] - PP market prices fluctuated narrowly. The slight increase in PP futures boosted the sentiment of the spot market. Most producer factory prices remained stable, and the overall offers of traders changed little. Some low - stock grades tried to increase prices slightly, and downstream factories made low - price rigid - demand replenishments. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 7090 - 7320 yuan/ton, East China was 7200 - 7330 yuan/ton, and South China was 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton. [5] - Some PE market prices increased. In North China, individual linear prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure prices increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and individual low - pressure prices fluctuated by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure prices increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, linear prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and low - pressure prices fluctuated by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In South China, some high - pressure prices increased by 20 - 150 yuan/ton, and low - pressure and linear prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The LDPE market price continued to rise, and downstream buyers mainly made rigid - demand replenishments with actual transactions focusing on negotiation. The LLDPE price in North China was 7350 - 7650 yuan/ton, in East China was 7350 - 7950 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7550 - 7800 yuan/ton. [5][6]

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 17 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】周三（4 月 16 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指七连涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.26%，收报 3276.00 点；深证成指跌 0.85%，收报 9774.73 点；创业板指跌 1.21%，收报 1907.11 点。沪深两市成交额 11119 亿，较 昨日小幅放量 347 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 16 日震荡趋强，收盘 3772.82，环比上涨 11.59。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 16 日焦炭加权指数区间震荡，收盘价 1562.9 元，环比下跌 7.1。 4 月 16 日，焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价 945.2 元，环比下跌 14.5。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：近期环保限产约束有所放松，焦企保持开工动能，高频数据显示开工率以及焦炭日均产量环比小幅增 加。需求方面，高炉延续复产，铁水产量增加，供需双增，焦企出货顺畅。 焦煤：上周部分前期停产煤矿复产，带动上游开工率回升，国内煤炭整体宽松格局持续。进口方面，蒙煤单 日通关车数维持在千车高位，进口供应充分。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【棕 ...