2025 年 10 月 15 日 棕榈油：产地驱动有限，关注下方支撑 豆油：区间运行，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,330 | -0.36% | 9,320 | -0.11% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,240 | -0.34% | 8,244 | 0.05% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,959 | -0.63% | 9,918 | -0.41% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,460 | -0.80% | 4,467 | 0.13% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 50.57 | -0.06% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 526,687 | 25422 | 350,778 | 1,573 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the long holiday, the futures prices of edible oils rose first and then fell. The Y2601 soybean oil contract rose 1.99% to close at 8,302 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 2.28% to close at 9,438 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 0.19% to close at 10,061 yuan/ton [5][31]. - In the international market, the bottom - oscillation of international crude oil has intensified, suppressing the upward trend of US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The high inventory pressure in September may restrict the further rise of futures prices, but the Indonesian B50 plan supports long - term demand, and the increase in exports since October has also boosted the market [9][32]. - In the domestic market, the relations between China and Canada, and China and the US still have a great impact on rapeseed oil and soybean oil. The news of the US imposing additional tariffs on China over the weekend has caused turmoil in the global financial market, and there is a high possibility of significant high - level market oscillations under policy uncertainty [9][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Spot Analysis - As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [12]. - As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,370 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [13]. b. Other Data - As of September 26, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 1.461 million tons. On October 1, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 35,000 tons to 581,000 tons [17]. - As of October 11, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,579,700 tons [19]. - As of October 10, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 278 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [22][23]. - As of October 10, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 309 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [25]. c. Comprehensive Analysis - Palm oil: From September 1 - 30, 2025, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 2.35%. The total estimated production in September was 1.81 million tons. The single - yield decreased by 1.9% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 2.42% month - on - month. Malaysian palm oil rose 2.34% [7][31]. - Soybean oil: As of now, the export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season have only completed 23.7% of the annual target, far lower than the 5 - year average of 43.4%. The slow sales pace may force the US to lower its export forecast and increase the ending inventory. From January - September 2025, China imported 72.7 million tons of Brazilian soybeans, accounting for 77.4% of Brazil's total soybean exports. US soybeans fell 0.98% this week [7][31].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - The funds in the oil and fat sector have flowed out, trading volume has slowed down, and the market has shown a fluctuating downward trend. For the 01 contract, there is pressure above but also support below, so it is expected to move in a range; for the 05 contract, the strategy is to buy at low prices and roll over for long positions. As the long holiday approaches, attention should be paid to risk control [7] - Although the soybean production in Brazil's 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, the climate change in October, the key sowing window period, needs to be closely monitored. If the subsequent rainfall continues to fall short of expectations, it may affect the crop emergence uniformity and potential yield per unit area [9] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: In the East China market, the basis prices of different grades of rapeseed oil and soybean oil at different times, as well as the quotes of palm oil of different grades in Guangdong, are given [7] - **Market Analysis**: The oil and fat sector has seen capital outflows, trading volume has slowed down, and the market has trended downward. Short - term seasonal pressure comes from the harvest of North American oilseeds. The 01 contract is expected to move in a range, while the 05 contract is recommended for low - buying and rolling long positions [7] 2. Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports increased (12.9% according to ITS and 11.3% according to AmSpec), while production decreased by 4.14% compared with the previous period. As of the end of the 39th week of 2025, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 534,000 tons, and the contract volume increased by 4,000 tons to 35,000 tons [8] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season is slow, with only about 1% of the planting area sown as of last week, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. The uneven distribution of rainfall has increased farmers' uncertainty [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents figures on the spot prices of East China's tertiary rapeseed oil, quaternary soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the price spreads of different palm oil contracts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][13][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. As the estimated quantity of Chinese buyers' purchases of Argentine soybeans this week continued to increase, the market focus shifted back to the stagnant global trade relations. The price of CBOT soybeans was under continuous pressure, which also exerted some pressure on domestic oil prices [3] - The EU's decision to postpone the implementation of the anti - deforestation regulations by one year provides a temporary respite for palm oil exporters. Although it eases the compliance risks and cost pressures on exporters and reduces the immediate risk of weak palm oil demand, it also prolongs the regulatory uncertainty faced by producers [2] Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,126.00 yuan/ton, a change of +72 yuan or +0.80% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,100.00 yuan/ton, a change of +14.00 yuan or +0.17%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,921.00 yuan/ton, a change of -75.00 yuan or -0.75% [1] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970.00 yuan/ton, a change of +110.00 yuan or +1.24%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 156.00, a change of +38.00 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,280.00 yuan/ton, a change of +60.00 yuan/ton or +0.73%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 180.00, a change of +46.00 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,140.00 yuan/ton, a change of -80.00 yuan or -0.78%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 219.00, a change of -5.00 yuan [1] Market Information - EU's anti - deforestation regulations delay: CIMB Securities believes that the postponement of the EU's anti - deforestation regulations (EUDR) has a slightly positive impact on palm oil producers as it alleviates market concerns about weak demand in Q1 2026 due to the implementation of EUDR. There is still room for further negotiation or policy adjustment before the new deadline [2] - Feed production and price: The national industrial feed output was 29.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The output of compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed increased by 3.4%, 8.3%, and 7.9% year - on - year respectively. The ex - factory prices of feed products showed a downward trend year - on - year. The ex - factory prices of livestock and poultry compound feed and concentrated feed mainly increased month - on - month, while the ex - factory price of additive premixed feed decreased slightly. The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 32.9%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 14.3% [2] - International oil price: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) was 515 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 524 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1,111 US dollars/ton, down 55 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1,111 US dollars/ton, down 51 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: the price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1,105 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the price of Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) was 1,085 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The adjustment of Argentina's tariff policy has put pressure on the operation of the oil and fat market. The current poor export of US soybeans has alleviated the expected future supply gap in the domestic market, which exerts significant pressure on soybean prices. Attention should be paid to the results of the later negotiations between China and the US [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9054.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -306 yuan and a decrease of -3.27% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8086.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -280.00 yuan and a decrease of -3.35% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9996.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -147.00 yuan and a decrease of -1.45% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8860.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -400.00 yuan and a decrease of -4.32%. The spot basis was P01 + -194.00, with a环比 change of -94.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8220.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -310.00 yuan/ton and a decrease of -3.63%. The spot basis was Y01 + 134.00, with a环比 change of -30.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10220.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -140.00 yuan and a decrease of -1.35%. The spot basis was OI01 + 224.00, with a环比 change of +7.00 yuan [1] Market News - An Indonesian state-owned palm oil producer aims for a crude palm oil production target of 415,000 tons in 2025 and 1.07 million tons in 2026 - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) is 1166 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) is 1162 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) is 1105 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) is 1085 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) is 510 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) is 520 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (November shipment) is 459 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (November shipment) is 432 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (November shipment) is 479 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotation: the Mexican Gulf (November shipment) is 240 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the US West Coast (November shipment) is 165 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (November shipment) is 295 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Crude oil rebound provides support for international oils and fats [1] - Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on beans leads to a weak and volatile trend in US soybeans [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil reached 9,054 yuan/ton (down 3.27% during the day, up 0.27% at night); soybean oil hit 8,086 yuan/ton (down 3.35% during the day, up 0.17% at night); rapeseed oil stood at 9,996 yuan/ton (down 1.45% during the day, down 0.77% at night); Malaysian palm oil was 4,341 ringgit/ton (down 2.27% during the day, up 0.23% at night); CBOT soybean oil was 49.84 cents/pound (up 0.30%) [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 1,021,148 lots (an increase of 459,441 lots), and open interest was 387,927 lots (a decrease of 15,956 lots); soybean oil's trading volume was 817,864 lots (an increase of 527,798 lots), and open interest was 545,909 lots (a decrease of 23,441 lots); rapeseed oil's trading volume was 419,360 lots (an increase of 143,932 lots), and open interest was 328,042 lots (a decrease of 38,435 lots) [2] - **Spot Prices**: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,920 yuan/ton (down 350 yuan/ton); first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,390 yuan/ton (down 320 yuan/ton); fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,980 yuan/ton (down 160 yuan/ton); Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,105 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) [2] - **Basis**: Palm oil in Guangdong was - 134 yuan/ton; soybean oil in Guangdong was 304 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 16 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 942 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 968 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was 198 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil was 238 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 529 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: MPOC expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to rise slightly from September to October and start to decline in November. The production in Sabah and Sarawak has not reached the seasonal peak, and the reserve is still within a controllable range [3] - **Indonesian Palm Oil Producer**: Agrinas Palma Nusantara aims for a crude palm oil production of 415,000 tons in 2025 and 1.07 million tons in 2026 [5] - **Indonesia - EU Agreement**: Indonesia and the EU signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which is expected to benefit Indonesia's palm oil and other exports [5] - **Pakistan's Soybean Import**: Pakistani importers purchased about 180,000 tons of soybeans in September, with shipments expected from the US in January 2026 [5] - **Indian Crop Outlook**: India's 2025/26 monsoon - season food production is expected to exceed the target. Oilseeds and pulses are also optimistic despite reduced planting areas [6] - **EU's Oil and Fat Imports**: As of September 21, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 600,000 tons (compared to 800,000 tons last year), soybean imports were 2.86 million tons (compared to 2.98 million tons last year), soybean meal imports were 4.01 million tons (compared to 4.16 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 790,000 tons (compared to 1.22 million tons last year) [6] - **EU's Anti - Deforestation Regulation**: The EU will postpone the implementation of the anti - deforestation regulation for the second time to solve IT system problems [7] Trend Intensity - Palm oil's trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil's trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil market, due to Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. For the double - meal market, short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and those not yet entered the market should wait and see for buying points after stabilization [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Vegetable Oil Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybean series, global vegetable oil futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased in price and positions, with the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closing at 8086 yuan/ton, down 3.35% day - on - day [1]. Important Information - International oil prices rose on September 23 due to the impasse in the agreement to restart Iraqi Kurdish oil exports. - The US EPA plans to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted by the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) program to large refineries, with two main options of 50% and 100% quota distribution. The public comment period lasts until the end of October, and a decision may be made in late November or December 25. - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a 33.60% increase from the previous month and a 15.17% decrease from the same period last year. - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - Canada launched a $370 million biofuel production incentive program to boost domestic rapeseed consumption. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 6.57% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.25%. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase from August 1 - 20. Exports to China were 30,400 tons, lower than the previous month. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.6773 million tons, a 1.68% week - on - week decrease and a 22.80% year - on - year increase [1][2]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's cancellation of soybean oil and meal export tariffs and the continuous reduction of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC soybean oil led to the decline of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient, oil mill operating rates are around 65%, and soybean oil supply is abundant. Rapeseed oil is still in the process of inventory reduction, and palm oil is in the process of inventory accumulation [2]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: No relevant arbitrage strategy is provided [2]. Double - Meal Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, double - meal futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all decreased in price and increased in positions, with the main soybean meal contract M2601 closing at 3250 yuan/ton, down 3.49% day - on - day [2]. Important Information - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - As of the week ending September 18, 2025, US soybean export inspections were 484,116 tons, at the lower end of market expectations, a 41% decrease from the previous week and a 3% decrease from the same period last year. - As of September 21, the US soybean harvest was 9% complete, with a good - to - excellent rate of 61%. - Brazil's soybean exports in September 2025 are estimated to be 7.43 million tons, a 44% increase from the same period last year. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory was 770,800 tons, an increase from the previous week, and the imported rapeseed inventory was 66,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 124,600 tons, an increase from the previous week [2][3]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's zero - tariff policy on soybean series affected the global soybean market, but the continuous decline of US soybeans is limited. Domestically, oil mill spot prices have decreased, and near - month basis has increased. The terminal's willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has improved. Rapeseed meal spot transactions are limited, and institutional long - short games have intensified [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and wait for buying points after stabilization. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - short spread trade for soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts. Temporarily exit on September 23 and wait for subsequent stabilization [3].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The palm oil market has no obvious upward or downward drivers, and range trading is the main strategy. The soybean oil market is affected by the oscillation of US soybeans, and the oil market is undergoing a correction [1] Group 2: Industry News - From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21% month - on - month, and production decreased by 8.05% month - on - month [2] - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 695,716 tons, a 0.1% decrease from the same period last month [3] - SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 404,688 tons, a 24.7% decrease from the same period last month [4] - Industry analysts expect that for the week ending September 11, 2025, US 2025/26 soybean export sales will increase by 40 - 150 million tons, US soybean meal export sales will increase by 10 - 40 million tons, and US soybean oil export sales will decrease by 5,000 tons to increase by 41,000 tons [4] - Anec predicts that from September 14 - 20, 2025, Brazil's soybean exports will be 2.1317 million tons, soybean meal exports will be 513,500 tons, and corn exports will be 2.6291 million tons [4] - As of the week ending September 10, 2025, Argentine farmers sold 597,900 tons of 2024/25 soybeans and 73,300 tons of 2025/26 soybeans [5] - In 2025, Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase by 4.1% to 20 million tons, with a 6.2% increase in yield and a 2.0% decrease in harvest area [6] - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 6.1 million tons, a 3.4% increase from the previous forecast [7] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0 [8] Group 4: Fundamental Data Futures | Variety | Closing Price (Day Session) | Change Rate | Closing Price (Night Session) | Change Rate | Previous Day's Trading Volume | Volume Change | Previous Day's Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 9,424 yuan/ton | - 0.61% | 9,388 yuan/ton | - 0.38% | 680,632 lots | 88,956 lots | 436,003 lots | - 15,722 lots | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 8,366 yuan/ton | - 0.62% | 8,350 yuan/ton | - 0.19% | 347,820 lots | 50,225 lots | 588,445 lots | - 9,285 lots | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 9,999 yuan/ton | - 0.54% | 9,983 yuan/ton | - 0.16% | 334,643 lots | - 16,007 lots | 336,743 lots | 3,703 lots | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4,448 ringgit/ton | 0.07% | 4,422 ringgit/ton | - 0.63% | - | - | - | - | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 51.82 cents/pound | - 2.59% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [1] Spot | Variety | Spot Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 24 - degree Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 9,450 yuan/ton | 50 yuan/ton | | Grade - 1 Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 8,780 yuan/ton | 30 yuan/ton | | Grade - 4 Imported Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 10,040 yuan/ton | 50 yuan/ton | | Malaysian Palm Oil FOB (Continuous Contract) | 1,105 dollars/ton | 0 dollars/ton | [1] Basis | Variety | Spot Basis | | --- | --- | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 26 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 414 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 41 yuan/ton | [1] Spread | Spread Type | Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | | Rapeseed Oil - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | 575 yuan/ton | 571 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | - 1,058 yuan/ton | - 1,064 yuan/ton | | Palm Oil 1 - 5 Spread | 212 yuan/ton | 230 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil 1 - 5 Spread | 268 yuan/ton | 296 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil 1 - 5 Spread | 466 yuan/ton | 467 yuan/ton | [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats, with a major risk point being the El Niño weather [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production reduction falling short of expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and as the production season approaches, the supply of palm oil will increase [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,508, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the future [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,516, with a basis of 34, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have changed to short positions [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,250 - 9,650 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the future [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,166, with a basis of 113, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4] Recent利多利空 Analysis - **利多 Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and there is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **利空 Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The heavy rainfall in Malaysia may affect the palm oil picking progress in the short term [1] - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The USDA report maintains the expectation of a soybean bumper harvest, and the overall soybean supply remains in a loose pattern. The China-US negotiation is ongoing, which may have a further impact on future market prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of heavy rainfall in palm oil producing areas [3] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,422.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +126 yuan and a change rate of +1.36% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,376.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +54.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.65% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,900.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +43.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.44% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,300.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +40.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.43%. The spot basis was P01 + -122.00, with a month-on-month change of -86.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,520.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +40.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +0.47%. The spot basis was Y01 + 144.00, with a month-on-month change of -14.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,110.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +50.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.50%. The spot basis was OI01 + 210.00, with a month-on-month change of +7.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - As of September 15, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.70444 million tons, an increase of 68,700 tons compared to the same period last week - The Sabah state government of Malaysia announced the cancellation of the state-level Malaysia Day celebration originally scheduled for Tuesday (16th) at the Independence Square in Kota Kinabalu due to heavy rain causing floods in at least seven counties - As of September 12, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2512 million tons, a decrease of 10 tons compared to last week, with a decline rate of 0.01% - The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 641,500 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons compared to last week, with an increase rate of 3.58%; an increase of 128,000 tons compared to 513,500 tons last year, with an increase rate of 24.92% - According to the data of shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of palm oil in Malaysia from September 1 - 15 was 742,648 tons, a 2.6% increase compared to the export volume of 724,191 tons in the same period last month [2]