Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the trends of oilseeds and oils diverged. CBOT soybeans broke through upward, while oils broke through downward. The overall trend of oils was weak due to the resonance of the industry and external factors, and the rapeseed-palm oil spread broke through. The market sentiment was boosted by the strong demand for soybean crushing in the US and China's resumption of purchasing US soybeans, causing CBOT soybeans to break through the previous 15 - and - a - half - month oscillation range and stand above the 1100 mark. However, the continued shutdown of the US government and the possible delay in the announcement of the biodiesel bill suppressed CBOT soybean oil to break through the key support of 50. The supply - demand data of Malaysian palm oil was slightly bearish, and the situation of Indonesian palm oil supply - demand was expected to ease. The BMD crude palm oil was under pressure and broke through [7]. - Considering the bearish Southeast Asian supply - demand data and B50 news, and the expected lack of positive progress in China - Canada trade negotiations, along with China's resumption of importing US soybeans boosting the US market sentiment, the divergence in the origin markets intensified and was transmitted to the domestic market. Rapeseed and palm oils broke through downward. In the short term, the overall trend of oils will continue to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see for now and await the October origin monthly reports [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Review - In October, CBOT soybeans found support at the 1000 mark again and then broke through upward, standing above the 1100 mark. Both domestic and international palm oils and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil broke through downward, while domestic and international soybean oils oscillated weakly [10]. b. Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybeans**: China resumed purchasing US soybeans. In September, the US soybean crushing volume was 197.863 million bushels, the fourth - highest on record. In August, the consumption of soybean oil in the biodiesel sector was 1.041 billion pounds. The sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans exceeded 30%, and the premium at the end of October dropped from a high level [13]. - **Palm Oil**: In October, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5 - 6%, and exports increased by 4 - 5%. The reference price of crude palm oil in November was 4262.23 Malaysian ringgit per ton. It is expected that the production of Indonesian palm oil will increase by 10% in 2025, and the production in the first 8 months increased by 13%. The reference price of crude palm oil in November was 963.75 US dollars per ton. In September, India imported 829,000 tons of palm oil and 503,000 tons of soybean oil [13]. - **Import and Crushing**: In September, China imported 1.2869 billion tons of soybeans, with a cumulative import of 8.618 billion tons from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The import of palm oil in September was 150,000 tons, with a cumulative import of 1.74 million tons from January to September, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The import of soybean oil in September was 70,000 tons, with a cumulative import of 270,000 tons from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The import of rapeseed oil in September was 160,000 tons, with a cumulative import of 1.6 million tons from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 22.2%. Due to the long holiday in October, the soybean crushing volume decreased month - on - month, and the soybean inventory in oil mills continued to accumulate. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was almost exhausted, the crushing operation rate declined, and the weekly crushing volume remained below 20,000 tons [13]. - **Inventory**: In October, the soybean oil inventory was stable at around 1.25 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline for 6 months to around 560,000 tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the high point at the beginning of May; the palm oil inventory rose above 600,000 tons again after a brief decline. The total inventory of the three major oils was 2.36 million tons, compared with 1.97 million tons in the same period last year [13]. - **Spot Prices**: In October, the spot prices of oils first rose and then fell. Rapeseed and palm oils dropped significantly compared with before the holiday. As of October 31, the price of soybean oil was 8383 yuan per ton, a slight increase of 0.42% from the previous month; the price of palm oil was 8780 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.94% from the previous month; the price of rapeseed oil was 9868 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4.6% from the previous month [13]. - **Demand**: The overall spot trading volume of oils in October was average. The trading volume of soybean oil in October was 251,500 tons, compared with 338,600 tons in the previous month; the trading volume of palm oil was 23,715 tons, compared with 34,592 tons in the previous month; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 0 tons, compared with 20,000 tons in the previous month [13]. c. Spread Tracking No specific content provided in the given text for detailed summary.

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 11 月 3 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 2601收盘价 各品种地区现货价 | | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8110 | (18) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8350 | | | | 8410 | 8290 | | 300 | 0 | 240 | 10 | 180 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8664 | (100) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8564 | | | | 863 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. It presents price, trading volume, and position data for these oils in both the futures and spot markets. Additionally, it includes macro and industry news that may impact the market, such as palm oil export data, Indonesia's palm oil reference price and export tax, USDA report schedules, and soybean crushing and inventory forecasts. Detailed Summary Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil futures all showed declines, with palm oil down 0.72% (day session) and 1.26% (night session), soybean oil down 0.49% (day session) and 0.44% (night session), and rapeseed oil down 1.12% (day session) and 1.19% (night session) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil and soybean oil trading volumes decreased, while rapeseed oil trading volume increased. Palm oil and soybean oil open interest increased, while rapeseed oil open interest decreased [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil spot prices decreased, while soybean oil spot prices remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis**: The basis for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions are -64 yuan/ton, 372 yuan/ton, and 428 yuan/ton, respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil, soybean oil and palm oil, and the 1 - 5 spreads for each oil all showed changes [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil Exports**: AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31 increased by 4.31% month - on - month to 1,501,945 tons, and ITS reported an increase of 5.19% to 1,639,089 tons [2][3]. - **Indonesia's Palm Oil Policy**: Indonesia set the November reference price for crude palm oil at $963.75 per ton, slightly higher than October, with an unchanged export tax of $124 per ton and a 10% special tax [5]. - **USDA Reports**: Due to the government shutdown, the USDA's October reports were not released. The crop production report and global agricultural supply - demand forecast report are now scheduled for November 14 [5]. - **US Soybean Crushing and Inventory**: Analysts expect US soybean crushing in September to reach 6.163 million short tons (205.4 million bushels), a 10.1% increase from September 2024. The estimated soybean oil inventory as of September 30 is 1.681 billion pounds, an 8.4% increase from September 2024 [6]. - **US Biodiesel Production**: US biodiesel production using soybean oil decreased to 1.041 billion pounds in August from 1.108 billion pounds in July [7]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Planting and Harvesting**: In Brazil, the soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso is 76.13%, slightly lower than the historical average. In Canada, the rapeseed harvesting progress in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta is high, and the export volume in the week ending October 26 increased by 25.4% [7][8]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity for palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil has short - term support but there is a risk of a second decline; for soybean oil, with the rebound of US soybeans, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to widen [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of palm oil主力 was 8,828 yuan/ton (down 0.16% during the day session, 8,806 yuan/ton at night, down 0.25%); soybean oil主力 was 8,168 yuan/ton (up 0.44% during the day session, 8,156 yuan/ton at night, down 0.15%); rapeseed oil主力 was 9,529 yuan/ton (up 0.04% during the day session, 9,468 yuan/ton at night, down 0.64%); Malaysian palm oil主力 was 4,260 ringgit/ton (up 0.19% during the day session, 4,269 ringgit/ton at night, up 0.21%); CBOT soybean oil主力 was 49.58 cents/pound (down 1.16%) [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil主力 was 483,690 lots (down 243,616 lots), and the open interest was 391,870 lots (up 3,383 lots); for soybean oil主力, the trading volume was 286,316 lots (down 152,541 lots), and the open interest was 489,700 lots (down 3,447 lots); for rapeseed oil主力, the trading volume was 167,186 lots (down 189,402 lots), and the open interest was 226,014 lots (down 7,051 lots) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,750 yuan/ton (unchanged); the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,500 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton); the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,900 yuan/ton (unchanged); the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,065 dollars/ton (down 10 dollars/ton) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 78 yuan/ton; for soybean oil in Guangdong, it was 332 yuan/ton; for rapeseed oil in Guangxi, it was 371 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 701 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was 683 yuan/ton); the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 660 yuan/ton (previous spread was - 710 yuan/ton); the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was - 46 yuan/ton (previous spread was - 48 yuan/ton); the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil was 184 yuan/ton (previous spread was 172 yuan/ton); the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 319 yuan/ton (previous spread was 349 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's MPIC aims to strengthen the downstream development of palm oil in Sabah, especially in biodiesel production. Sabah, the largest crude palm oil - producing region in Malaysia, had a production of 4.27 million tons in 2024, accounting for 22.1% of the national total. The state has over 1.48 million hectares of oil palm plantations, about 26.43% of the national total, and 129 palm oil mills. There are three licensed biodiesel plants in Sabah, creating about 160 jobs [2][3] - As of the week ending October 28, about 34% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 39% the previous week and 73% last year [3] - The estimated soybean production in Paraná, Brazil for the 2025/26 season is 21.96 million tons, higher than the September forecast of 21.94 million tons [3] - Brazil exported 1.347347 million tons of soybeans, 0.451508 million tons of soybean meal, and 1.551232 million tons of corn from October 19 - 25. It plans to export 1.832822 million tons of soybeans, 0.48587 million tons of soybean meal, and 1.369037 million tons of corn from October 26 - November 1 [4] - Since the start of the 2024/25 season, the EU's imports of five major oilseed meals reached a record high of 24.99 million tons. The increase in soybean meal imports was the most significant, reaching 20.34 million tons from October 2024 to August 2025, an increase of 3.5 million tons. Imports from Argentina, Brazil, and India increased by 2 million tons, 1.4 million tons, and 0.55 million tons respectively, while imports from the US decreased by 0.4 million tons. Rapeseed meal imports (mainly from Canada) slightly rebounded to 0.421 million tons (lower than last year's 0.647 million tons). Sunflower seed meal imports totaled 2.49 million tons (3.06 million tons last year), and palm kernel meal imports were 1.45 million tons (1.41 million tons last year) [4] - In September 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 1.007389 million tons, up 16.07% from the previous month and 7.97% from the same period last year. Rapeseed oil production was 0.42533 million tons (up 15.8% month - on - month and 7.72% year - on - year), and rapeseed meal production was 0.589724 million tons (up 14.52% month - on - month and 8.32% year - on - year). The cumulative rapeseed crushing volume for the 2025/26 season was 1.875333 million tons, rapeseed oil production was 0.792629 million tons, and rapeseed meal production was 1.104666 million tons [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]

Report Title - Palm Oil: Temporary Support in the Short Term, Beware of a Second Dip; Soybean Oil: Rebound in US Soybeans, Monitor the Results of China-US Negotiations [1] Report Core View - Palm oil has obtained temporary support in the short term, but there is a risk of a second decline; soybean oil has rebounded due to the rise of US soybeans, and the results of China-US negotiations need to be focused on [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Key Points by Section Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract during the day session was 8,842 yuan/ton, down 1.29%, and at night session it was 8,826 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract during the day session was 8,132 yuan/ton, down 0.61%, and at night session it was 8,146 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil main contract during the day session was 9,525 yuan/ton, down 2.11%, and at night session it was 9,524 yuan/ton, down 0.01%. The closing price of the Malaysian palm oil main contract during the day session was 4,252 ringgit/ton, down 1.46%, and at night session it was 4,286 ringgit/ton, up 0.80%. The closing price of the CBOT soybean oil main contract was 50.11 cents/pound, down 0.30% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the palm oil main contract was 727,306 lots, an increase of 195,613 lots, and the open interest was 388,487 lots, an increase of 20,397 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main contract was 438,857 lots, an increase of 181,788 lots, and the open interest was 493,147 lots, an increase of 4,050 lots. The trading volume of the rapeseed oil main contract was 356,588 lots, an increase of 219,971 lots, and the open interest was 233,065 lots, a decrease of 7,182 lots [2] - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of fourth-grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil (continuous contract) was 1,075 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was -92 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 318 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 375 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 683 yuan/ton (previous two trading days: 772 yuan/ton); the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts was -710 yuan/ton (previous two trading days: -776 yuan/ton); the 1-5 price spread of palm oil was -48 yuan/ton (previous two trading days: -22 yuan/ton); the 1-5 price spread of soybean oil was 172 yuan/ton (previous two trading days: 180 yuan/ton); the 1-5 price spread of rapeseed oil was 349 yuan/ton (previous two trading days: 387 yuan/ton) [2] Macro and Industry News - **Pakistan's Palm Oil Imports**: Pakistan is considering increasing the import quota of Indonesian palm oil. In September 2025, Pakistan's palm oil import value reached 481 million US dollars, a significant increase from 251 million US dollars in the same period last year. The import volume was 343,162 tons, a significant increase from 266,218 tons in the same period in 2024, indicating strong demand [3] - **USDA Export Sales Report Forecast**: As of the week ending October 23, 2025, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year (2025/26) is expected to be 60-160 tons; the net increase in US soybean meal export sales is expected to be 5-50 tons; the net increase in US soybean oil export sales is expected to be 0.5-2.5 tons [5] - **Brazil's Soybean Outlook**: The Netherlands Cooperative Bank expects that Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season will reach 48.8 million hectares, a 2% increase from the previous year. The soybean output is expected to be 177 million tons, a 3% increase. The export volume is expected to be 111 million tons, basically the same as the previous year. The soybean crushing volume is expected to reach 60 million tons, a record high (58 million tons in the 2024/25 season) [5] - **Soybean Planting in Brazil's Paraná State**: From October 21-27, 2025, due to good soil moisture and ideal planting conditions, soybean sowing in Paraná State continued to progress rapidly, with balanced progress in various regions. The crop growth is good, and the overall outlook for the 2025/26 season is positive [6] - **Brazil's Soybean Exports in October**: In the first four weeks of October 2025, Brazil exported 5,415,164.62 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 300,842.48 tons, a 41% increase compared to the average daily export volume of 214,090.30 tons in October last year. The total export volume in October last year was 4,709,986.65 tons [6] - **Argentina's Labor Dispute**: The Argentine Oilseed Workers' Union (SOEA) may resume strikes next week as they are still far from reaching a salary agreement with employers [6] - **Argentine Farmers' Soybean Sales**: As of the week ending October 22, 2025, Argentine farmers sold 1.115 million tons of 2024/25 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 22.3379 million tons. They also sold 38,100 tons of 2025/26 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 214,500 tons. The total soybean sales volume for all seasons in that week was 1.1927 million tons, with a cumulative sales volume of 63.1325 million tons. The cumulative registered export sales volume of 2024/25 season soybeans was 4.818 million tons, and that of 2025/26 season soybeans was 0 tons [7] - **Paraguay's Soybean Production Forecast**: Paraguay's soybean output in the 2025/26 season is initially estimated to be 10.8 million tons (estimated range: 8.7-12.6 million tons), a 5.8% increase from the previous year, mainly due to the expected increase in yield per hectare (2.91 tons per hectare, a 6.9% increase from the previous year). Paraguayan farmers are expected to plant 3.71 million hectares of soybeans, a slight decrease of nearly 1% from the previous year and lower than the USDA's forecast of 3.8 million hectares [8] - **India's Soybean and Soybean Meal Situation**: The Indian Soybean Processors' Association (SOPA) expects the soybean carry-over stock in the 2025/26 season (starting from October) to be 466,000 tons, a 47% decrease from 894,000 tons in the same period last year. The carry-over stock of soybean meal is expected to be 68,000 tons, a 49% decrease from 133,000 tons in the same period last year. The soybean meal output in the 2024/25 season is expected to decrease to 8.956 million tons, a 7.34% decrease from 9.666 million tons in the previous year. The export volume is expected to decrease by about 10% to 2.023 million tons, and the feed industry consumption is expected to decrease by about 6% to 6.2 million tons. The domestic food industry's procurement volume remains stable at 800,000 tons throughout the year. The Indian Agricultural Statistics Bureau predicts that the soybean output in the 2025 monsoon season will be 1.05 million tons, a 16% decrease from 1.2581 million tons in the previous year, mainly due to excessive rainfall and diseases [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with -2, -1, 0, 1, 2 representing weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong respectively [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - The prices of the three major oils were fluctuating weakly yesterday. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production and a slight decrease in exports are expected to lead to continued inventory accumulation in October, exerting certain pressure on the palm oil futures market [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8,958.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan or -1.56% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,182.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.00 yuan or -0.63%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,730.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.00 yuan or -0.18% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,860.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140.00 yuan or -1.56%, with a spot basis of P01 + -98.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan compared to the previous day; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,360.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.00 yuan/ton or -0.71%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 178.00, a decrease of 8.00 yuan compared to the previous day; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,070.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or -0.20%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 340.00, a decrease of 2.00 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Palm Oil Production and Export - According to SPPOMA data, from October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.78% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, SGS, and Amspec data, the estimated palm oil export volume from Malaysia from October 1 - 25, 2025, decreased by -0.36%, increased by 23.8%, and decreased by -0.27% respectively compared to the same period last month [2] - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) stated on Tuesday that Indonesia's palm oil inventory in August decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month. The decrease in production offset the decrease in export volume. In August, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 3.47 million tons, a 1.8% decrease from the previous month, and the crude palm oil production was 5.06 million tons. Due to favorable weather conditions, GAPKI expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by 10% in 2025 [2] Agricultural Situation in China - According to the Information Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the agricultural and rural economy in the first three quarters generally maintained stable operation. The annual grain output is expected to have another good harvest. Summer grain production was stable and achieved a good harvest, with a yield of 299.48 billion catties. Early rice production increased, with a yield of 57.03 billion catties, an increase of 0.68 billion catties or 1.2% compared to the previous year. The area of autumn grain increased, especially the area of high - yielding corn increased significantly. In most agricultural areas this year, the light, temperature, and water conditions were favorable, and the autumn grain production situation in the three northeastern provinces, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang was relatively good. Recently, local areas have carefully organized the autumn grain harvest, and more than 85% of the harvest has been completed. Efforts have been made to deal with the continuous rainy weather in the Huanghuaihai region, and all - out efforts have been made to harvest and dry the grains to minimize the impact of disasters. The achievements of soybean and oilseed expansion have been continuously consolidated. It is expected that the soybean planting area will remain above 150 million mu for four consecutive years, and the output will continue to remain above 20 million tons; the area, yield per unit, and total output of summer oilseeds have all increased [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil origin is experiencing slow inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to the lower support level. The soybean oil price rebounds with the rise of US soybeans, and the oil - meal ratio declines [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of palm oil主力 was 8,958 yuan/ton (down 1.56% during the day session and 8,824 yuan/ton, down 1.50% during the night session). The closing price of soybean oil主力 was 8,182 yuan/ton (down 0.63% during the day session and 8,080 yuan/ton, down 1.25% during the night session). The closing price of rapeseed oil主力 was 9,730 yuan/ton (down 0.18% during the day session and 9,659 yuan/ton, down 0.73% during the night session). The Malaysian palm oil主力 was 4,315 ringgit/ton (down 1.30% during the day session and 4,290 ringgit/ton, down 0.63% during the night session). The CBOT soybean oil主力 was 50.16 cents/pound (down 1.20%) [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil主力 was 531,693 lots (an increase of 69,272 lots), and the open interest was 368,090 lots (an increase of 11,600 lots). The trading volume of soybean oil主力 was 257,069 lots (a decrease of 14,197 lots), and the open interest was 489,097 lots (an increase of 11,003 lots). The trading volume of rapeseed oil主力 was 136,617 lots (a decrease of 16,166 lots), and the open interest was 240,247 lots (a decrease of 3,196 lots) [2]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,900 yuan/ton (a decrease of 130 yuan/ton), the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton), and the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,100 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50 yuan/ton). The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,085 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 58 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 368 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 370 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spread**: The futures price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil主力 was 772 yuan/ton, the futures price spread between soybean oil and palm oil主力 was - 776 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 price spread of palm oil was - 22 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 price spread of soybean oil was 180 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 price spread of rapeseed oil was 387 yuan/ton [2]. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Indonesia**: GAPKI expects Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 to increase by 10% to about 5,600 - 5,700 million tons (previously estimated at 5,363 million tons), and exports to be 3,000 - 3,100 million tons (higher than 2,900 million tons in 2024). In 2026, production is expected to increase by another 5%. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 254 million tons (down 1% from the previous month), with exports of 347 million tons (down 1.8% month - on - month) and production of 506 million tons [3][4]. - **US Crop Harvest**: As of Sunday, the US soybean harvest was expected to be 84% complete, and the corn harvest 72% complete. Analysts' prediction ranges were 80% - 88% for soybeans and 67% - 80% for corn. Last year, the soybean harvest was 89% and the corn harvest was 81% at the same time [4]. - **Brazil's Soybean and Soybean Meal Exports**: Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to reach 700 million tons (previously estimated at 734 million tons), and soybean meal exports are expected to reach 208 million tons (previously 209 million tons) [5]. - **Soybean Pressing Profit in Brazil**: In the week of October 20 - 24 in Mato Grosso, Brazil, the soybean pressing profit was 467.42 reais/ton (previously 457.72 reais/ton), with the soybean meal price at 1,512.91 reais/ton and the soybean oil price at 6,658.72 reais/ton [5]. - **EU's Agricultural Product Imports**: As of October 26, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 89 million tons (compared to 113 million tons in the same period last year), soybean imports were 362 million tons (compared to 428 million tons last year), soybean meal imports were 568 million tons (compared to 589 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 120 million tons (compared to 189 million tons last year) [5]. - **Nepal's Exports to India**: In the first quarter of the 2025 - 26 fiscal year, Nepal's exports to India soared by nearly 138% due to a surge in soybean oil exports. Processed edible oil (mainly soybean oil) accounted for nearly 52% of Nepal's exports to India, with exports of 306.9 billion Nepalese rupees [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, and that of soybean oil is - 1. The range of trend intensity is [- 2, 2], where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker. It is recommended to wait and see, but in the medium - term, the idea of buying on dips is maintained. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - **Soybean Oil**: The 2601 closing price was 8234, up 40. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8454, 8534, and 8394 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 300 (unchanged), 220 (unchanged), and 160 (down 10) [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2601 closing price was 9100, down 22. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 9000, 9050, and 9200 respectively. Basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were - 100 (unchanged), - 50 (unchanged), and 100 (unchanged) [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2601 closing price was 9748, down 13. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10118, 10128. Basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong were 370 (unchanged) and 380 (down 20) [2]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was 166, down 12; for palm oil, it was 20, up 2; for rapeseed oil, it was 383, down 1 [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: - The 01 - contract Y - P spread was - 866 (down 53), OI - Y was 1514, and OI - P was 648 (up 9). The oil - meal ratio was 2.81, up 0.01 [2]. - **Import Profits**: - The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a disk profit of - 245, with a CNF price of 1096 in November. The disk profit of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 885, with an FOB price of 1075 in November [2]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories (2025 Week 42, in 10,000 tons)**: - Soybean oil inventory was 54.8 this week, compared with 122.4 last week and 126.5 last year; palm oil inventory was 57.6 this week, compared with 49.0 last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 54.9 this week, compared with 57.1 last week and 40.3 last year [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit increased by 1.63% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.78% month - on - month [4]. - **Domestic Market**: - **Palm Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 60.71 tons, up 3.14 tons (5.45%) week - on - week. The import profit was about - 250. It is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, then consider lightly buying the 05 - contract after a pullback [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 236.74 tons, with an operating rate of 65.13%. As of October 24, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 125.03 tons, up 2.63 tons (2.15%) week - on - week. It is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, then consider lightly buying after a pullback [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 1.1 tons, with an operating rate of 2.93%. As of October 17, 2025, the coastal inventory was 54.9 tons, down 2.2 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB price increased to around 1100 dollars, and the import profit was about - 900. It is expected that the coastal de - stocking trend will continue [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, wait and see; medium - term, maintain the idea of buying on dips [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including those for spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [13][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral strategy for the oil and fat industry [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oil and fat futures and spot prices showed a downward trend, with palm oil leading the decline. The market lacks obvious driving forces, and each type of oil has its own supply - demand characteristics. Palm oil may face inventory build - up pressure, but will maintain high - level fluctuations; soybean oil has sufficient supply but export relieves pressure; and rapeseed oil supply is expected to tighten [1][6][7][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Quotes - Futures: This week, the closing price of palm oil 2601 contract was 9,122 yuan/ton, down 186 yuan or 2.0% from the previous week; soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,194 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan or 0.75%; rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,761 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 1.01%. - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9,050 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 1.52%; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,360 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 1.18%; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,100 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.69% [1] Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased. Domestically, 4 new purchase ships and 1 cancelled ship were added from October 17 - 23, all with November shipment dates. - Demand: Terminal replenished goods intensively this week, with the national key oil mills' palm oil trading volume increasing by 84.18% compared to last week. - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 57.57 tons, up 5.13% from last week and 11.59% from last year [2] Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In September 2025, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 13.17%. From January - September, the cumulative import was 86.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.29%. The actual soybean crushing volume in the 43rd week was 2.3674 million tons, and the expected crushing volume in the 44th week was 2.3392 million tons. - Demand: The average daily trading volume of domestic key oil mills' bulk soybean oil decreased by 28.98% compared to last week. - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the national key areas' soybean oil commercial inventory was 122.4 tons, down 3.25% from last week but up 8.32% from last year [3] Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 17, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume was 12,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. The rapeseed inventory was low, and only a few enterprises were operating. The import of rapeseed is expected to be limited from October - December, and the production of rapeseed oil is expected to shrink sharply. - Demand: As of October 17, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed oil pick - up volume was 12,900 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons from the previous period, and it is expected to decline slightly next week. - Inventory: As of this week, the national imported rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week; the coastal oil mills' rapeseed oil inventory was 50,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week [4][5] Market Analysis - This week, the three major oil and fat futures showed a weak and volatile trend. Palm oil was the weakest due to over - expected production growth, slow export growth, and the possible delay of Indonesia's B50 policy; rapeseed oil had no obvious driving force in the short - term; soybean oil was relatively firm due to its low price and export orders. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil slightly recovered [6] Future Outlook - Soybean oil: The U.S. soybean harvest rate is 73%, but the sales progress is slow. Brazil's soybean planting rate is lower than the five - year average, but the expected output is high. China's soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to increase. Exports relieve some supply pressure, and the future depends on Sino - U.S. negotiations. - Palm oil: Indonesia's B50 policy may be delayed. Malaysia's palm oil production increased significantly in October, and India's future import speed may slow down. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the inventory is expected to increase. However, due to the approaching production - reduction season and the promotion of Indonesia's biodiesel, palm oil will maintain high - level fluctuations. - Rapeseed oil: Canada's rapeseed harvest is almost over, but its exports are sluggish. China's import of rapeseed is expected to be limited from October - December. Rapeseed oil will fluctuate between tight supply of raw materials and slow inventory reduction [7][8][9][10]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: October 23, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team [4] Group 2: Researcher Information - Researcher Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Researcher Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Researcher Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Researcher Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Researcher Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Group 3: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: East China's third - grade rapeseed oil prices from October - November are OI2601 + 330, December - January are OI2601 + 270; first - grade rapeseed oil from October - November are OI2601 + 430, December - January are OI2601 + 370. East China's first - grade soybean oil basis prices: for first - grade soybean oil, October is Y2501 + 210, October - November is Y2501 + 220, December - January is Y2601 + 280, February - May is Y2501 + 150, March - May is Y2501 + 130, May - July is Y2501 + 10; for third - grade soybean oil, it's 01 + 170; for raw soybean oil, it's 01 + 50. Dongguan traders' palm oil quotes are stable, with 24 - degree palm oil at 01 - 70 [7] - Industry comments: China's three major oils continued to adjust. In the palm oil market, the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 10.77% month - on - month. Strong production and expected slowdown in Indian palm oil demand after Diwali dragged down the market. The domestic spot market was weak, with sufficient supply and little change in basis quotes. In the short term, there is a lack of drivers, and low crude oil prices also put pressure on the oil sector. Futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend with further downward potential. Attention should be paid to the lower technical support levels [7] Group 4: Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 10.77% month - on - month, with Peninsular Malaysia up 4.54%, Sabah up 21.99%, Sarawak up 16.69%, and East Malaysia up 20.45% [8] - UOB KayHian estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 10% - 14% month - on - month, with Sabah up 20% - 24%, Sarawak up 18% - 22%, and Peninsular Malaysia up 3% - 7% [8] - Shipping surveyor SGS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 were 793,571 tons, a 41.8% increase from 559,829 tons in the same period of September. Exports to China were 84,400 tons, higher than the 46,300 tons in the previous month [8] Group 5: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil; basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil; P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads; and exchange rates of US dollar to RMB and US dollar to Malaysian ringgit, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [10][12][15][23][28][29]