Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing and consumer confidence, which may present investment opportunities in these regions [2][3][9]. Group 1: US Economic Data - The US August S&P PMI exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI initial value at 53.3, compared to the forecast of 49.7 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July leading index from the Conference Board met expectations, showing a month-on-month change of -0.1%, in line with forecasts [2][9]. - July housing data surpassed expectations, with new housing starts at an annualized rate of 1.428 million units, above the forecast of 1.297 million units, and revised previous value from 1.321 million to 1.358 million units [2][9]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI also exceeded expectations, with an initial value of 50.5, compared to the forecast of 49.5 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July CPI final value met expectations, with a year-on-year change of 2%, matching forecasts, while core CPI was also in line at 2.3% [2][9]. - The August consumer confidence index was below expectations, with an initial value of -15.5 against a forecast of -14.7 [2][9]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - Japan's August manufacturing PMI rebounded to an initial value of 49.9, up from the previous value of 48.9, while the services PMI slightly declined to 52.7 from 53.6 [3][10]. - June core machinery orders exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 3%, against a forecast of -0.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, compared to the expected 4.7% [3][10]. - July CPI was in line with expectations, showing a year-on-year change of 3.1% [3][10]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming US economic data includes July new home sales on August 25, July durable goods orders initial value on August 26, and August consumer confidence index on August 26 [4][11]. - In the Eurozone, July M3 year-on-year data will be released on August 28, along with the final value of the August consumer confidence index [5][12]. - Japan will report July unemployment rate and job-to-applicant ratio, July retail sales, and July industrial output initial value on August 29 [5][12]. Group 5: High-Frequency Data Review - Economic activity indices for the US and Germany showed slight improvement, with the US WEI index at 2.54% for the week of August 16, up from 2.50% the previous week [6][13]. - US retail sales showed a slight year-on-year increase of 5.9% for the week of August 15, compared to 5.7% the previous week [16][22]. - Initial jobless claims in the US were weaker than expected, with 235,000 claims for the week of August 16, against a forecast of 225,000 [24]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - The US financial conditions index remained stable, while the Eurozone's index showed a slight tightening [7][32]. - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with slight fluctuations in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][34]. - Long-term bond yield spreads narrowed in the US, Japan, and Germany, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [7][37].

经济学家预计11月将再次降息，明年年初还将有一次，最终利率将降至3.1%。 西太平洋银行澳大利亚宏观经济预测主管马修·哈桑表示，澳大利亚消费者信心指数上次突破100点还是 42个月前，这是该调查自1974年启动以来持续时间第二长的悲观周期，仅次于1990年代初的经济衰退。 哈桑称，数据表明"消费者长期悲观情绪可能终于接近尾声"，并指出该指数所有分项均实现增长。"消 费者对自身财务状况的焦虑明显减轻。" 智通财经APP获悉，澳大利亚8月消费者信心指数大幅攀升，此前该国央行实施了今年第三次降息并释 放进一步宽松信号。澳大利亚储备银行在8月12日宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至3.6%。 西太平洋银行周二公布的调查显示，消费者信心指数上涨5.7%至98.5点，创三年半新高。尽管悲观者人 数仍多于乐观者(分界线为100点)，但差距正在缩小。 澳大利亚央行自年初以来已累计降息75个基点，使现金利率降至3.6%。行长米歇尔·布洛克上周暗示， 要实现央行最新预测目标还需"再降息几次"。 哈桑表示，进一步宽松的前景"似乎强化了消费者对抵押贷款利率走低的预期，从而全面提振了市场情 绪"，"消费者对大额消费的态度开始转向积极"。 ...

来源：市场资讯 8月18日，美国商务部周五公布的数据显示，7月零售额在汽车销售和大型在线促销活动的推动下普遍增 长，这表明消费者在近几个月的支出有所增加。不过就业市场放缓和商品价格上涨可能抑制第三季消费 者支出增长。未经通胀调整的7月份零售销售额环比增长0.5%，符合预期，前值由0.60%修正为0.9%。 若剔除汽车销售，零售额则增长了0.3%。上个月零售额增长的部分原因可能是关税推动价格上涨，而 不是销量。摩根大通分析师说，在9月30日联邦政府税收抵免到期之前，人们争相购买电池驱动的电动 汽车，这在一定程度上推动了7月份的汽车销售。 另外，周五公布的密歇根大学8月份的初步报告显示，美国消费者信心指数自4月以来首次下滑、从五个 月高点滑落，长短期通胀预期均上升，反映出人们对关税影响的持续担忧。无论是信心指数还是通胀预 期指标，都逊于媒体调查的经济学家的预期。美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值58.6，不及预期 的62，前值为61.7。分项指数方面，现况指数初值60.9，创三个月低点，预期67.3，前值68；预期指数 初值57.2，预期58.1，前值57.7。密歇根大学调查负责人Joanne Hsu在一份声明 ...

Group 1 - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 fell by 0.04% to $3,381.70 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of 3.14% for the week [1] - Economic data released on the same day showed mixed results, leading to minimal changes in gold prices [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 0.5% month-over-month increase in retail sales for July, marking the second consecutive month of significant growth, with a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, surpassing the expected 3.5% [1] Group 2 - The New York Federal Reserve reported that the manufacturing index for New York State rose to 11.9 in August from 5.5 in July, significantly exceeding expectations of a decline to 0.0, indicating further expansion in manufacturing activity [1] - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index for August was reported at 58.6, down from 61.7 in July and below expectations of 62 [1] Group 3 - Silver futures for September delivery fell by 0.13% to $38.02 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of 1.35% for the week [2]

Market Performance - On August 15, US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.08%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.40% and 0.29% respectively [4] - The large tech stocks experienced varied movements, with the US Tech Giants Index declining by 0.34%. META briefly rose nearly 2%, reaching a market capitalization of $2 trillion, but closed at $1.9726 trillion [6] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 0.74%, with notable gains from companies like Xunlei, which surged over 26% [6] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, spot gold prices rose by 0.01%, while international crude oil prices fell [2] - As of August 15, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery dropped by $1.16 to $62.80 per barrel, a decline of 1.81% [8] Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for August was reported at 58.6, marking a decline from previous values [6] - US retail sales for July increased by 0.5%, aligning with expectations, while core retail sales also grew by 0.3% [7]

Group 1 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed hesitation regarding interest rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and ongoing uncertainty from tariffs, indicating a need for at least one more inflation report to assess persistent price pressures [1] - Goolsbee highlighted concerns over high service inflation from the recent CPI and PPI reports, suggesting that rising service prices are unlikely to be temporary, while cautioning against overreacting to single-month data [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates this year while monitoring the impact of tariffs and other policies on inflation and employment, with a weaker-than-expected jobs report increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September, as investors see over a 90% chance of a cut next month [1] Group 2 - Goolsbee emphasized the need to distinguish between temporary and persistent price increases, stating that clarity would come with similar inflation reports in the future [2] - Recent data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed a 0.5% increase in retail sales in July, with June's data revised to a 0.9% increase, while sales excluding automobiles rose by 0.3% [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer survey indicated a decline in consumer confidence by about 5% in August, primarily due to rising inflation concerns, with short-term inflation expectations unexpectedly rising from 4.5% to 4.9% [2][3] Group 3 - The consumer survey also reported a 14% drop in durable goods purchases, the lowest level in a year, reflecting increased concerns over purchasing power, while personal financial expectations showed slight improvement [3] - Despite a decrease in immediate concerns regarding tariffs, consumers still anticipate worsening inflation and unemployment rates in the future [3]

每经AI快讯，8月15日消息，美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为58.6，预期为62，前值为61.7。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, along with related indicators such as spreads, basis, and price ratios, to help investors understand market trends and price relationships. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Spreads**: Provides current values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year and all - time historical quantiles for various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, covering both spot - futures spreads and inter - delivery spreads [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Presents ratios and their changes for different cross - variety combinations, such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., along with their historical quantiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: Shows the basis, its change, and the percentile since listing for different treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL), as well as the internal rate of return (IRR) for TS [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Reports the inter - delivery spreads and their changes and historical percentiles for different treasury bond futures contracts [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Provides cross - variety spreads and their changes for different combinations of treasury bond futures [2]. Precious Metal Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Prices**: Presents domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver [4]. - **Basis**: Reports the basis, its change, and historical 1 - year quantiles for different combinations of precious metal spot and futures [4]. - **Price Ratios**: Shows price ratios and their changes for different precious metal combinations [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Provides data on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate, along with their changes [4]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: Reports inventory and holding data and their changes for precious metals in different markets [4]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Presents spot quotes and their changes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route [6]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Provides settlement price indexes and their changes for different container shipping routes, as well as Shanghai export container freight rates and their changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Reports futures prices, their changes, and basis data for container shipping futures contracts [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators, along with their changes [6]. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report - **Overseas Data**: Lists economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, including economic sentiment indexes, inflation rates, and small - business confidence indexes [9]. - **Domestic Data**: Presents economic indicators and events in different domestic sectors, such as port inventories, to - port forecasts, and production - sales ratios [9].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，8月1日消息，美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值为61.7，预期62，前值61.8。 ...

金十数据8月1日讯，受益于股市反弹带来的当下经济状况乐观情绪，同时通胀预期有所缓解，美国7月 密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值升至五个月高点。调查显示，消费者预计未来五到十年的年均通胀率为 3.4%，为今年1月以来的最低水平；对未来一年的通胀预期则从6月的5%降至4.5%。这项调查于7月28日 结束，期间涵盖了特朗普总统与日本、欧盟等主要贸易伙伴达成关税协议的时段。但与此同时，总统也 在7月最后一个周四晚间宣布了一轮大规模的新关税措施，推动美国的平均关税水平进一步上升。调查 负责人表示，"持股消费者的信心上升，但这一涨幅部分被非持股消费者信心下滑所抵消。" 受益于股市反弹带来的乐观情绪 美国消费者信心指数升至5个月高点 ...