Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.593 billion yuan, with a profit growth of 25% to 548 million yuan and a slight increase in net profit attributable to shareholders to 193 million yuan [1] - The company's three main business segments, department stores, shopping centers, and outlets, generated revenues of 420 million yuan, 540 million yuan, and 430 million yuan respectively [1] - The domestic consumption market is showing positive changes due to a series of policies, with a significant acceleration in the growth rate of social retail sales at the beginning of 2025 [1] Business Strategy - The company aims to leverage a "one core engine and two wings" strategy centered on commercial retail, enhancing asset and capital operations to create sustainable growth [2] - The company is focusing on brand empowerment and marketing innovation to build a competitive advantage in the commercial ecosystem [2] - The company has initiated a "brand joint business plan" with 21 brand groups and 44 brands to deepen collaboration through six support areas including space, membership, data, financing, sales incentives, and training [1][2] Marketing and Consumer Engagement - The company has introduced the Dunhuang IP for a themed Spring Festival marketing campaign, enhancing consumer interaction with national culture through various events [2] - The company reported a more than 10% year-on-year increase in restaurant sales during the first two days of March, driven by the participation of nearly 400 dining merchants in Shanghai [2] - The company is actively promoting all-category consumption vitality in core business circles, creating new commercial spaces and innovative consumer experiences [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue deepening its innovation strategy focused on "branding, digitalization, and specialization" to provide comprehensive solutions for the industry [3] - The company aims to implement a "data-driven + organizational-driven + capital-driven" approach to adapt to the new consumption era [3]

事件: 2025 年4 月27 日，古井贡酒发布2024 年报及2025 年一季报。2024年公司实现营业总收入235.78 亿元， 同比+16.41%；归母净利润55.17亿元，同比+20.22%；扣非归母净利润54.57 亿元，同比+21.40%。 2025Q1公司实现营业总收入91.46 亿元，同比+10.38%；归母净利润23.30 亿元，同比+12.78%；扣非归 母净利润23.12 亿元，同比+12.78%。 投资要点: 盈利预测和投资评级：公司设定2025 年目标为：营业总收入较上年度实现稳健增长。我们认为公司基 本面经营稳健，产品结构有望持续升级，年份原浆系列产品预计将延续较快增长。我们调整公司盈利预 测， 预计公司2025-2027 年营业收入分别为259.83/286.85/319.27 亿元，归母净利润分别为 61.63/68.59/75.92亿元，EPS 分别为11.66/12.98/14.36 元，对应PE 分别为15/13/12X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：1）消费力下行抑制行业需求；2）宏观经济大幅波动；3）行业政策发生变化；4）营销工作 执行效果不达预期；5）价格改革的市场 ...

4月29日，港股市场低开高走，新能源车、社交、短视频、餐饮连锁、传媒等大消费方向弹性居前。港 股消费指数成分股中，零跑汽车涨超7%，美团-W、理想汽车-W涨超3%，中升控股、百胜中国、哔哩 哔哩-W、吉利汽车、阅文集团。港股消费ETF（159735）当前折价0.67%买入性价比凸显。 相关产品：港股消费ETF（159735）。 消息面上，有调研报告显示，中国消费品和零售行业正迎来消费结构升级带来的深刻变革。从居民消费 结构看，服务性消费占比上升，交通、教育等领域需求增长显著。同时，人口老龄化和家庭小型化推动 消费偏好转向情绪价值和质价比，健康与数字消费理念逐渐渗透各年龄段。从消费者需求趋势看，情绪 价值、质价比及可持续消费成为核心诉求。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪港股消费指数，是"更新的消费"，相较A股消费以白酒高端消费为主，港 股消费板块中电商、餐饮、旅游、文娱传媒、国潮服装等新型消费比例更高，服务消费和大众消费占比 也更高，或更能充分反映本轮大力提振消费政策驱动下的消费景气复苏。 平安证券表示，近期的政治局会议强调了"支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸"等方向，明确提出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations, with revenue and net profit showing significant growth compared to the previous quarter and year [3][8]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025: Revenue reached 9.146 billion (+10.4%), with net profit at 2.330 billion (+12.8%) and non-recurring net profit at 2.312 billion (+12.8%) [1]. - Q4 2024: Revenue was 4.509 billion (+4.9%), net profit at 0.771 billion (-0.7%), and non-recurring net profit at 0.758 billion (+0.7%) [2]. - Full Year 2024: Revenue totaled 23.578 billion (+16.4%), net profit at 5.517 billion (+20.2%), and non-recurring net profit at 5.457 billion (+21.4%) [2]. Product and Regional Performance - Q1 2025: Continued strong performance in product segments, particularly for products 古8 and 古16, while 古20 remained stable due to industry demand fluctuations [4]. - In 2024, the company saw significant revenue growth in key products: 年份原浆 (+17.3%), 古井贡酒 (+11.2%), and 黄鹤楼 (+15.1%), with 年份原浆's revenue share in the liquor business increasing to 79.1% [5]. Profitability - Q1 2025: Gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 79.7%, attributed to increased channel expenses, while net profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 25.5% [6]. - Full Year 2024: Gross margin increased by 0.8 percentage points to 79.9%, driven by product mix improvements [6]. Market Dynamics - Q1 2025: Revenue and contract liabilities decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, with cash sales down by 1.6%, indicating pressure on industry demand affecting channel collection [7]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, projecting revenue growth of 10.4% to 32.609 billion by 2027, with net profit expected to grow by 13.3% to 8.236 billion [8].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.36 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 790 million, up 18.2% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.27 billion, a decrease of 10.0%, and a net profit of 230 million, down 6.8% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 1.17 billion, an increase of 3.4%, and a net profit of 150 million, up 11.9% [1] Revenue Breakdown - For the full year 2024, the revenue from various brands was as follows: Hengshui Laobai Gan 2.59 billion (+10.0%), Bancheng Shaoguo Jiu 860 million (-10.3%), Wuling 1.1 billion (+12.3%), Wenwang Gong 550 million (+0.5%), and Kongfu Family 230 million (+28.1%) [2] - Regional revenue growth in 2024 was: Hebei +2.6%, Hunan +12.3%, Anhui +0.5%, Shandong +31.4%, Other provinces +20.7%, and Overseas +1.7% [2] - In Q1 2025, products priced above 100 yuan generated 660 million in revenue (+25.5%), while those below 100 yuan generated 500 million (-15.7%) [2] Cost and Efficiency - The company maintained a gross margin of 66.0% in 2024, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 14.7%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points [3] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 68.6%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 13.1%, up 1.0 percentage point [3] - Contract liabilities at the end of Q1 2025 were 1.88 billion, an increase of 34.3% from the beginning of the year [3] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to its dual-brand strategy focusing on "Hengshui Laobai Gan" and "Shibashijiu," aiming to enhance market penetration of high-end products in North China [3] - The expansion of Hunan Wuling sauce liquor continues, and the company is implementing cost control measures to improve performance [3] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 890 million, 970 million, and 1.06 billion, with corresponding EPS of 0.97, 1.06, and 1.16, indicating a PE ratio of 18, 17, and 15 times respectively [3]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 古井贡酒（000596） 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评：业绩符合 预期，延续韧性增长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 20,254 | 23,578 | 26,252 | 29,270 | 32,550 | | 同比（%） | 21.18 | 16.41 | 11.34 | 11.50 | 11.20 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,589 | 5,517 | 6,199 | 7,013 | 7,826 | | 同比（%） | 46.01 | 20.22 | 12.35 | 13.14 | 11.59 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 8.68 | 10.44 | 11.73 | 13.27 | 14.81 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 19.25 | 16.01 | 14.25 | 12.59 | 11.29 | [Table_ ...

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古井贡酒（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 000596） 公司点评 | 产品结构升级持续 | | --- | ——古井贡酒 24 年报&25Q1 点评 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-04-28 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 167.11 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元）280.00/139.02 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 529 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 409 | | 流通股比例（%） | 77.30 | | 总市值（亿元） | 883 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 683 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫ 收入：产品结构升级持续 ⚫ 利润：盈利能力提升持续兑现 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 证券研究报告 -56% -35% -15% 6% 27% 4/24 7/24 10/24 1/25 古井贡酒 沪深300 ...

2025 年 4 月 28 日 公司研究 Q1 归母净利润率创近 5 个季度新高，分红确定性增强提升中长期投资价值 ——宝钢股份（600019.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件： 2024 年实现营收 3221.16 亿元，同比-6.50%，归母净利润 73.62 亿元， 同比-38.36%；2024Q4 实现营收 792.60 亿元，环比-0.43%，同比-11.43%，归 母净利润 14.80 亿元，环比+10.63%，同比-58.82%；2025Q1 实现营收 728.80 亿元，环比-8.05%，同比-9.82%；归母净利润 24.34 亿元，环比+64.49%，同 比+26.37%。 2024 年公司钢材产量同比-1.02%，吨钢毛利-19.68%：2024 年度，钢材产品产 量 5141 万吨，同比-1.02%，其中冷热轧产量为 4206 万吨，同比-0.45%，长材 产量为 424 万吨，同比-7.42%，厚板产量为 428 万吨；2024 年钢材产品吨钢毛 利 167 元，同比-19.68%，其中冷热轧吨毛利为 193 元，同比-20.48%，长材吨 毛利为 8 元 ...

内容概要：我国毛纺织工业化生产始于19世纪70年代末，至今已有一百多年的历史。建国初期，我国毛 纺工业只有 13 万纺纱锭，羊毛加工量仅有 0.2万吨。在国内外需求持续增加的推动下以及国家产业政策 的大力支持下，毛纺织行业稳步发展，形成了上下游产业链配套齐全的生产加工体系，加工产能和消费 量位居全球第一，在全球毛纺织行业中占有重要地位。数据显示，我国毛纺织行业市场规模总体呈现增 长态势，2024年受新的经济发展周期、叠加地缘政治影响，行业发展面临着复杂严峻的形势和有效需求 不足的现实考验。在此情况下，毛纺行业通过科技创新和产业链的协同合作，实现恢复性增长态势。市 场规模同比上涨6.25%至85亿元。 相关上市企业：苏阳光5（400224）、四环生物（000518）、如意集团（002193）、新澳股份 （603889）、南山智尚（300918）、中银5（400236）、开开实业（600272）、鄂尔多斯（600295）、 上海三毛（600689）、江南高纤（600527）等。 相关企业：兰州三毛实业股份有限公司、新疆天山毛纺织股份有限公司、澳洋集团有限公司等。 关键词：毛纺织、纺织工业、羊毛、毛纱线、市场规模 ...