Group 1 - The core point of the article is the release of the US July CPI data, which shows a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, leading to increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - The core CPI for July increased by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 3.0%, marking the highest level since January [1] - Following the CPI data release, US stock index futures experienced a significant rise, with the Dow Jones index futures up 0.59%, Nasdaq 100 index futures up 0.70%, and S&P 500 index futures up 0.59% [1] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the market's reaction indicated that some traders had anticipated a worse inflation report, yet stock index futures still rose despite the acceleration in inflation [3] - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index fell sharply by over 30 points, with non-US currencies appreciating, including the British pound surpassing 1.35 against the dollar [3] - In the commodities market, spot gold prices surged, approaching $3360 per ounce [5]

（文章来源：新华财经） 荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole表示，美国通胀数据可能超过预期，但美元的任何涨幅可能都是短 暂的。 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇8月12日｜荷兰国际集团的分析师Francesco Pesole在一份报告中表示，今日晚些时候公布的美国 通胀数据可能超过预期，但美元的任何涨幅可能都是短暂的。他表示，劳动力市场数据比通胀数据更有 影响力，因为人们认为关税引发的价格冲击是暂时的，而且最新的非农就业报告已大幅向下修正。他 说，如果通胀高于预期，但伴随着劳动力市场进一步恶化，仍然可能符合美联储在九月降息的预期。这 意味着高于预期的通胀不太可能导致美元持续上涨。荷兰国际预计，7月份核心通胀率将环比上升 0.4%，高于经济学家普遍预计的0.3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in gold prices and the market's reaction to potential U.S. tariffs on gold bars, alongside the focus on upcoming U.S. inflation data that may influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - On August 11, gold prices fell sharply, with London gold down over 1.5% and COMEX gold down over 2.6% [1]. - The decline followed rumors of a new tariff on imported gold bars, which had previously driven COMEX gold to a new high on August 8 [2]. - Reports indicated that the U.S. government planned to classify gold bars for taxation, causing market turmoil, but subsequent clarifications from the White House aimed to stabilize the situation [2]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - Market attention is shifting towards U.S. inflation data, with the upcoming CPI and PPI reports expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy [3]. - As of August 11, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 9.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 90.7% [3]. - If inflation data exceeds expectations, it may hinder the recent upward trend in U.S. stock markets and reignite concerns about stagflation; conversely, lower-than-expected CPI could bolster expectations for rate cuts, potentially pushing gold prices above the psychological level of $3,400 [3]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Performance - As of the latest update, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, the Nasdaq up 0.09%, and the S&P 500 down 0.06% [4][5].

Group 1 - The core message indicates that President Trump stated "gold will not be subject to tariffs," leading to a decline in precious metal prices [2] - As of the latest report, COMEX gold futures are at $3403.9 per ounce, with a 0.00% change, while international spot gold is up 0.37% at $3354.26 per ounce [2][3] - The international gold market experienced fluctuations, with a shift in sentiment following the release of non-farm payroll data [4] Group 2 - Upcoming discussions between President Trump and President Putin regarding the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have eased geopolitical tensions, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. July CPI data, with expectations of a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4] - Analysts predict that if inflation data exceeds expectations, it may reinforce the Fed's stance on maintaining high interest rates, potentially suppressing gold prices [4] Group 3 - The China-U.S. trade talks resulted in a joint statement indicating a temporary suspension of additional tariffs on each other's goods starting August 12, 2025 [4] - The People's Bank of China reported gold purchases for nine consecutive months, with July purchases totaling 1.86 tons, suggesting potential upward movement in precious metal prices [5] - Analysts from 瑞达期货 suggest that long-term trends indicate a strong performance for precious metals, with a focus on whether gold can maintain above $3500 per ounce [5] Group 4 - Gold ETFs and related funds offer low-cost, diversified investment opportunities in gold, with features such as T+0 trading [5] - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against economic downturns and its stability in relation to credit money supply is emphasized [5]

本文字数：1963，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 在上周引起市场剧烈波动后，美国总统特朗普周一宣布，不会对进口金条加征关税。当天国际金价震荡走低超2%，创近三个月来最大跌幅。与此同时， 对黄金的避险需求因俄乌停火前景而减弱，投资者也在密切关注事关9月美联储降息的最新美国通胀报告及依然不明朗的全球贸易形势进展。 72小时市场巨变 纽约商品交易所近月黄金期货合约周一重挫近2.5%，盘后失守每盎司3400美元，创今年5月以来最大跌幅。 商品经纪商StoneX分析师奥康内尔（Rhona O'Connell）表示："芝加哥商品交易所COMEX库存目前占未平仓合约的86%，而正常情况下为40%-45%，因此 没有流动性问题。"他预计，美国海关与边境保护局仍可能修改其观点，或者华盛顿可能会将第二个HS编码添加到其排除清单中，或者该行业可能会挑战 美国海关与海关保护局的立场。 多重因素或影响短期金价 如今，市场目光将转向最新美国物价数据。美国7月消费者价格指数CPI将于周二公布，周四将公布生产者价格指数PPI。 最近一份弱于预期的美国就业报告增加了交易员对美联储9月份降息的押注。根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的F ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have significantly declined, with both spot and futures prices dropping sharply, leading to increased attention on social media platforms [1][2]. Price Movements - As of the latest update, London gold has decreased by over 1.5%, while COMEX gold has fallen by more than 2.6% [2]. - Specific price changes include: - London gold: 3346.170, down 52.409, a decrease of 1.54% [3] - London silver: 37.743, down 0.574, a decrease of 1.50% [3] - COMEX gold: 3399.9, down 91.4, a decrease of 2.62% [3] - COMEX silver: 37.820, down 0.722, a decrease of 1.87% [3] Market Influences - The recent drop in gold prices was influenced by rumors regarding "gold bar tariffs," which initially caused COMEX gold to reach a new high on August 8. Reports indicated that the U.S. government planned to impose tariffs on imported gold bars [4]. - Following these rumors, the White House is expected to clarify the situation, which may help stabilize the market and reduce confusion regarding gold import tariffs [4]. Economic Indicators - Market focus has shifted to U.S. inflation data, which is crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. As of August 11, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September is 9.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 90.7% [5]. - Upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI data releases are anticipated to impact market sentiment. Higher-than-expected inflation could hinder the recent upward trend in U.S. equities, while lower-than-expected CPI could reinforce expectations for rate cuts, potentially pushing gold prices above the psychological level of $3400 [5]. Stock Market Performance - As of the latest update, U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.09% [6]. - Specific index performances include: - Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44023.73, down 151.88, a decrease of 0.34% [7] - Nasdaq Composite: 21469.93, up 19.91, an increase of 0.09% [7] - S&P 500: 6385.81, down 3.64, a decrease of 0.06% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant drop in gold prices, influenced by rumors of new tariffs on gold bars imported into the U.S. and the upcoming U.S. inflation data that could impact Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [2][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - On August 11, both gold futures and spot prices fell sharply, with London gold down over 1.5% and COMEX gold down over 2.6% [3][4]. - The price of London gold was reported at 3346.170, down 52.409, or -1.54%, while COMEX gold was at 3399.9, down 91.4, or -2.62% [4]. Group 2: Tariff Rumors and Market Impact - The drop in gold prices followed reports of the U.S. government imposing tariffs on imported gold bars, which initially caused COMEX gold to reach a new high on August 8 [4]. - A subsequent report from Bloomberg indicated that the White House planned to clarify the tariff situation, which could help stabilize the market and reduce confusion regarding gold import tariffs [4]. Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - Market focus has shifted to upcoming U.S. inflation data, with expectations that higher-than-expected inflation could hinder the recent upward trend in U.S. stock markets [5]. - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicated a 90.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with various probabilities for future rate cuts [5].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are under pressure due to rising global risk appetite, but expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a weaker dollar are limiting the decline [2] - Key technical support for gold has been breached at around $3,380, with initial support at $3,350; a break below could accelerate declines to $3,315 or even test the $3,300 level [2] - The upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI data are critical for determining short-term gold price movements, with current market dynamics influenced by macroeconomic and technical factors [2] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices continue to decline due to increased U.S. import tariffs, OPEC's production increase, and expectations of a potential ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Russia regarding Ukraine [4] - WTI crude oil has seen a bearish trend, breaking below key moving averages, with MACD indicators showing increased bearish momentum; next support levels are at $62.50 and $61.80 [4] - Oil price movements are heavily influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with potential for a rebound if inflation data is weak and a ceasefire agreement is reached, although tariff pressures may hinder upward movement [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the next Federal Reserve Chair nominee on interest rate expectations and capital market trends, highlighting a strong likelihood of interest rate cuts in September 2023 [1][5][9]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts within the year, advocating for a cut to begin in September [1][5]. - Current market expectations indicate a 91.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, reflecting increased optimism among investors [1][9]. - The recent appointment of Stephen Milan, perceived as a dovish figure, is expected to further strengthen the dovish stance within the Federal Reserve [6]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of the July CPI data is anticipated to show a rebound in inflation, with expectations of a year-on-year increase from 2.7% in June to 2.8% in July [3]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to rise to 3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics [3]. - Analysts from Wells Fargo suggest that the July CPI data will be crucial for assessing whether the Federal Reserve needs to adjust its monetary policy, especially in light of weak labor market data [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Earnings Reports - The article notes that U.S. stock indices, particularly the Nasdaq, have reached new historical highs, influenced by the dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1]. - This week, several major Chinese tech companies, including Tencent and JD.com, are set to announce their earnings, which may impact market sentiment [4].