Group 1 - The recent HSBC survey indicates that 74% of Hong Kong enterprises remain confident in expanding international trade over the next two years, with a focus on deepening trade relations with mainland China, South Asia, and Europe [4] - 90% of mainland enterprises express confidence in continuing international trade expansion, with 84% believing that trade uncertainties are prompting them to transform and seek new opportunities [4] - 54% of Asian enterprises plan to increase economic and trade interactions with mainland China, while 38% expect to deepen trade relations with South Asia and 36% with Europe [4][5] Group 2 - The Morning Consult data shows that as of the end of May, China's net approval rating stands at 8.8, while the U.S. is at -1.5, indicating a significant shift in global perceptions [2][7] - The CEO confidence index in the U.S. dropped from 60 to 34, marking the lowest level since Q4 2022 and the largest decline since the survey began in 1976, suggesting a pessimistic outlook on the economic future [2][10] - 34% of Asian enterprises have adjusted prices to cope with rising costs, and 37% have increased inventory levels to address supply chain disruptions [5]

Core Insights - Gold prices have declined after reaching a near four-week high at the beginning of the trading session, influenced by a weakening dollar and rising trade uncertainties [1] Group 1 - The recent drop in gold prices raises questions about its ability to maintain its status as a "safe haven" asset amidst economic uncertainties [1]

摘要周五（5月30日）国际黄金日内维持下跌走势，目前市场焦点还集中在周五将公布的美国个人消费 支出(PCE)物价指数数据上。市场将仔细分析该数据，以寻找有关美国未来货币政策的信号。 美联储利率政策与贸易不确定性成为市场焦点。周四，美国联邦上诉法院暂停贸易法院的裁定，临时恢 复前总统特朗普实施的关税措施。据市场调查显示，此举为贸易前景再添变数，增强市场避险情绪，有 助于金价保持韧性。 此外，美联储多位官员近期表示，如果经济数据和通胀进一步回落，今年进行2次降息是合理的预期。 尽管FOMC会议纪要显示目前仍保持观望态度，但市场仍倾向于年内降息。这种利率路径的不确定性， 成为黄金的中长期支撑因素之一。 【黄金技术分析】 今日周五，金价又再度跌破3300点，内盘TD价格虽保持在765上方，但涨势力度不强，白盘时段能否延 续昨日的上涨格局，不好肯定，因此还需观察等待。短期内若没有风险事件支撑，金价上涨较难持续， 所以还是不能再高位追进，或许会跌破位昨日低点，也或许不会，总之能够再回撤拉低价格，就是入场 的最佳时机，因为下一阶段的上涨快启动了。 晚间交易提醒： 20:00 德国5月CPI月率初值 周五（5月30日）国际黄 ...

5月29日（周四），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价持稳，此前美国联邦法院制止了特朗普总统对来自美 国大多数贸易伙伴的进口商品征收全面关税的举措，市场乐观情绪支撑了铜价。 在谈到铜价前景时，Manthey指出，下行风险包括贸易不确定性等。他说，从好的方面来看，在精矿供 应持续紧张的情况下，精炼铜产量可能减少，这可能使铜价受益。 市场关注的焦点仍然是华盛顿正在进行的对潜在铜进口关税的调查，这使得COMEX期铜相对于LME指 标铜的溢价居高不下，并刺激金属流入COMEX 自有仓库的激增。 美国COMEX期铜下跌0.1%，至每磅4.70美元，使COMEX期铜对LME的溢价达到每吨792美元。 荷兰国际集团（ING）大宗商品分析师Ewa Manthey表示，多数基本金属价格上涨，因最高法院的裁决 提振了风险偏好，不过随着政府反对该裁决，市场可能仍会波动。 在特朗普征收所谓的对等关税后，LME期铜在4月份触及8,105美元的17个月低点，目前已反弹了近 19%。 美元走软也为市场提供了支撑，美元走软使得以美元计价的大宗商品价格对使用其他货币的买家来说变 得不那么昂贵。 伦敦时间5月29日17:00(北京时间5月30日00: ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting the temporary pause in tariff increases and the resulting surge in shipping activity and container bookings from China to the US, while also expressing concerns about the long-term implications of these trade disputes [1][2][5]. Group 1: Trade Developments - On May 26, Trump agreed to extend the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU until July 9, indicating the volatile nature of global trade relations [1]. - Following a temporary halt on high tariffs on May 14, there was a significant increase in container bookings from China to the US, with certain categories like toys and sports goods seeing a 280% increase in bookings [2]. - Shipping companies adjusted prices significantly, with rates from Shanghai to New York increasing by 31.7% and from Shanghai to Long Beach by 22.0% after the temporary trade agreement [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The temporary 90-day pause in tariffs has led to increased activity at major ports in Asia, creating new job opportunities as companies rush to ship goods [3][4]. - The article notes that the average tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese imports have risen to 51.1%, while China's tariffs on US goods stand at 32.6%, indicating a significant escalation in trade barriers since the onset of the trade war [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding the trade situation continues to challenge businesses, requiring effective operational strategies and investment measures to navigate the prolonged period of instability [6][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a prevailing concern about whether the trade war will truly end, as the underlying tensions between the two economies remain unresolved [5][6]. - The article emphasizes the need for companies to build resilience in their supply chains and diversify their market strategies to survive in an era dominated by uncertainty [7][9]. - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing the economy and expanding high-level openness, which is seen as a significant certainty amid external uncertainties [8][9].

黄金冲高遇阻回落后，短线展开震荡调整，因此操作上建议大家，以震荡思路对待，下方支撑关注3287 美元，其次3277和3250美元，上方压力关注3315美元，其次3325和3345美元。 分析，黄金在上周四短线调整后，于上周五继续冲高，单周涨幅超过150美元，金价表现强势，主要原 因仍是市场避险情绪升温，避险买盘对黄金走势形成支撑。具体来看，美国主权信用评级，被下调至 AA1，市场对美国财政赤字与经济前景的担忧升温，俄乌谈判破裂，以色列继续进攻加沙，并可能袭击 伊朗核设施，加剧地缘紧张局势，以及上周五特朗普再度发出关税威胁，从6月1日开始将对欧盟征收 50%的关税，市场对贸易不确定性的担忧再度升温。周一开盘后黄金探底回升，早间金价下跌，主要因 上周末特朗普表示，同意将对欧盟征收关税的日期，推迟至7月9日，市场担忧情绪有所缓解，不过金价 在避险买盘推动下，收复早间跌幅。 日线图上，上周黄金连续上涨，金价刷新半个月新高，短期走势表现偏强。黄金上方压力，关注上周高 点3365美元，上周五金价上涨，两度试探这里遇阻，这里也是4小时布林带上轨位置，若黄金表现强 势，向上突破可以关注3400美元整数位置；黄金下方支撑，关注 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has weakened, leading to a resurgence in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 4.75% to $3,357.70 per ounce and SHFE gold increasing 3.76% to ¥780.10 per gram [1][27] - The U.S. economic uncertainty and global trade dynamics are prompting investors to shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver, with expectations of continued price appreciation [3][48] - The ongoing U.S.-EU tariff tensions and the recent U.S. debt auction results have contributed to the volatility in the market, reinforcing the attractiveness of precious metals [3][47] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have increased significantly, with COMEX gold up 4.75% and SHFE gold up 3.76% [1][27] - The gold-silver ratio has risen by 0.99% to 99.81, indicating a stronger performance of gold relative to silver [27] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 119,821.97 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 9,728,859.30 ounces [27] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 1.76% to $9,614.00 per ton, while aluminum fell by 0.62% to $2,466.00 per ton [52] - SHFE copper prices decreased by 0.45% to ¥77,790.00 per ton, while aluminum prices increased by 0.12% to ¥20,155.00 per ton [52] - The overall sentiment in the base metals market remains mixed, with supply concerns and fluctuating demand impacting prices [7][52] Small Metals - The price of magnesium has increased by 0.11% to ¥18,780 per ton, reflecting strong pricing power among manufacturers [14] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices have shown slight increases, with molybdenum iron at ¥227,500 per ton [15] - The market for small metals is currently stable, with limited price fluctuations observed [15][80]

在贸易不确定的情况下，新西兰联储有进一步降息的空间 金十数据5月19日讯，新西兰联储研究主管斯蒂芬•托普里斯表示，经济前景总是存在很大的不确定性， 但很少出现目前的这种不确定性，这在很大程度上要归功于特朗普总统的关税政策波动。他补充说，特 朗普政策的净影响对全球经济增长是负面的，因此对新西兰也是如此。托普利斯表示，仅在这一基础 上，就有理由认为新西兰联储将下调增长预期。他补充说，新西兰联储有很强的理由在5月28日降息25 个基点，然后暗示进一步降息。 ...

摩根大通全球市场策略主管表示，美国或许可以避免经济衰退，随着全球贸易前景更加明朗，这种情境 发生的概率已有所下降。Dubravko Lakos-Bujas周四表示，他认为经济衰退的可能性为35%，并澄清称 这是他个人观点。摩根大通本周早些时候的官方评估仍认为风险"依然较高"，但低于50%。"与几周前 相比，情况确实更加明朗，"他在巴黎参加摩根大通举办的全球市场会议间隙对彭博电视的Francine Lacqua表示。"围绕贸易、关税和政策的一些不确定性开始得到控制。"（彭博） ...

金十数据5月15日讯，凯投宏观经济学家Adrian Prettejohn在一份报告中称，瑞士今年前三个月的经济增 长强于预期，这增加了瑞士央行在下月可能降息至零利率后不会将利率降至负值的可能性。瑞士第一季 度GDP增长0.7%，是自2023年初以来的最快增速。他说，这不像爱尔兰和其他欧洲国家那样是因为美 国关税前的囤积行为，因为瑞士央行的数据显示，1月和2月的贸易顺差有所收窄。然而，随着贸易不确 定性的冲击，增长可能会放缓，尽管它可能会比同行更强劲。随着通胀降温，家庭支出和实际收入的增 加应该会有所帮助。 瑞士经济快速增长降低负利率的可能性 ...