据央视新闻，美国白宫3日发布声明称，美国总统特朗普签署命令，将进口钢铁和铝的关税从25%提高 至50%，从4日起开始生效。 同时，有记者就美方对华采取新限制措施进行提问，何咏前表示，5月12号《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合 声明》发布后，中方本着负责任的态度，认真对待、严格落实中方义务，积极维护日内瓦经贸会谈共 识。 "反观美方，在日内瓦会谈后，对华采取一系列限制措施，严重破坏既有共识，严重损害中方正当权 益。中方对此强烈不满、坚决反对，要求美方立即停止。如果美方一意孤行，继续损害中方利益，中方 将坚决采取有力措施维护自身正当权益。"何咏前表示。 6月5日，商务部举行例行新闻发布会。商务部发言人何咏前表示，中方已多次强调，232关税是典型的 单边主义和保护主义行径，早已被世贸组织争端解决机制裁定违反世贸规则。此次美方再一次提高钢铝 及其衍生制品关税，不仅损人害己，无助于维护产业安全，还将严重扰乱全球产业链供应链稳定。 何咏前称，美方做法已遭到多个国家反对。中方敦促美方尊重经济规律，摒弃零和思维，停止泛化和滥 用"国家安全"概念，与各方一道维护以规则为基础的多边贸易体制，通过平等对话解决各自关切，共同 维护全球产业链 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum products by the Trump administration is expected to significantly impact the U.S. steel industry, leading to higher domestic steel prices and potential profit losses for companies reliant on steel imports [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The Trump administration raised tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, aiming to protect domestic industries and reduce reliance on imports [1]. - U.S. steel prices have reached twice the global average, with the average price per ton at $901 as of May 26 [2]. - Ford Motor Company anticipates a $1.5 billion profit reduction due to increased costs from tariffs, despite sourcing 85% of its steel domestically [2]. Group 2: Industry Response - The U.S. steel industry is facing challenges with reduced supply and rising fixed costs, leading to deteriorating profits for major companies [3]. - Cleveland-Cliffs announced the suspension of operations at six domestic blast furnaces and mines due to these challenges [3]. - U.S. Steel has reported consecutive quarterly losses, indicating that while rising steel prices are beneficial, decreased demand from sectors like automotive may worsen profitability [3]. Group 3: Supply Chain Concerns - The reliance on global supply chains means that companies dependent on imported specialty steel may face increased burdens due to tariffs [2]. - There are concerns that rising product prices could lead to reduced demand, negatively impacting the performance of large steel companies [2][3].

Group 1: Global Trade and Geopolitical Risks - The global trade situation has escalated due to the Trump administration's decision to increase steel tariffs from 25% to 50%, which has negatively impacted market confidence and led to a rise in geopolitical risks due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][11][15] - The U.S. government debt levels are rising, and the uncertainty surrounding tariffs has caused U.S. Treasury bonds to experience their first monthly decline of the year in May [5] Group 2: Market Reactions - Asian stock markets opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 2.46% and the Hang Seng Technology Index falling nearly 3% [3][2] - The S&P futures declined by 0.4%, and the FTSE China A50 Index futures fell by nearly 2% [2] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Gold prices increased by 0.47% to $3331 per ounce, while Brent and WTI crude oil prices surged over 2% due to heightened geopolitical tensions [4][5] - The dollar index decreased by 0.22%, contributing to the rise in precious metals [5][13] Group 4: Impact on Steel Industry - The South Korean steel sector faced significant declines, with major companies like Hyundai Steel and POSCO experiencing drops in stock prices [6][7] - Hyundai Steel has entered an "emergency state" due to the tariff increase, which affects 35% of its exports to the U.S. [11][12] - Approximately 1,800 small and medium-sized steel and aluminum enterprises in South Korea are expected to be severely impacted by the U.S. tariffs, prompting government support plans [12] Group 5: European Steel Industry Concerns - The German Steel Federation expressed concerns that the U.S. tariffs would exacerbate the already struggling European steel industry, increasing direct export burdens and potentially leading to a loss of market access [13][14]

美国总统特朗普5月30日表示，美国将从6月初起把进口钢铁和铝的关税从目前的25%上调至50%。对于 美方的这一决定，德国钢铁联合会主席里佩尔当地时间6月1日发表书面声明称，美方这一举动使得跨大 西洋贸易冲突再次升级，将会给欧洲钢铁行业带来巨大压力。德国钢铁联合会主席里佩尔在声明中表 示，近年来欧洲钢铁行业本就不景气，美方加征关税的举动一方面将加大德国对美国市场的直接出口负 担。另一方面，其间接影响则更加严重：传统的钢铁供应方因高昂的关税而面临失去美国市场准入的威 胁，并转向欧盟市场，这将进一步加剧欧洲本已不小的内部压力。里佩尔表示，欧盟委员会必须在严格 的贸易保护和明智的谈判之间保持平衡。具体而言，现在需要及时为欧洲钢铁行业提供有效的贸易保护 手段。同时，与美国进行双边钢铁协议谈判也很重要，德国钢铁联合会全力支持欧盟委员会与美方的谈 判。(央视新闻) ...

Energy - The UAE Energy Minister stated that OPEC+ is making every effort to balance the market and ensure sufficient investment in supply. Without OPEC+, especially the G7, the situation would descend into chaos [2] Precious Metals and Mining - The Governor of Florida signed a bill recognizing gold and silver as legal tender [3] - The Brazilian government announced an extension of trade protection measures for the steel industry, maintaining a 25% tariff on 19 steel products and expanding this measure to four additional products [3] - France and Indonesia signed a strategic defense cooperation agreement and agreements in agriculture and critical minerals [3] Agriculture - The Mexican Ministry of Agriculture announced an agreement with the U.S. to reopen Mexican beef exports to the U.S. [3] - Canada is projected to export 896,968 tons of canola seed by March 2025 [3] Oil and Gas - A Reuters survey indicated that Saudi Arabia's crude oil prices for Asia may drop to a six-month low in July [4] - Chevron received limited permission to continue operations in Venezuela from the U.S. [4] - The Australian Environment Department approved the Woodside LNG project extension in the northwest until 2070 [4] - Oman’s oil revenue for Q1 2025 is expected to decline by 13% year-on-year to 1.468 billion rials [4]

Group 1: Gold Import and Economic Strategy - China's gold imports surged to 127.5 tons, marking a nearly one-year high, despite international gold prices nearing $3,500 per ounce, reflecting a strategic move rather than a market reaction [3][5] - The increase in gold reserves is seen as a response to concerns over the financial systems of major economies, particularly with $6 trillion in U.S. debt maturing in June and uncertainty surrounding interest rate decisions [5][6] - The proportion of gold in China's foreign exchange reserves rose from less than 3% in 2020 to 5.8% in April 2023, indicating a strategy to strengthen the "gold-RMB" linkage for financial security [10][12] Group 2: Trade Relations and Regional Integration - China and ASEAN announced an upgrade to their free trade agreement to version 3.0, aiming for deeper economic integration and addressing global trade protectionism [13][15] - The new agreement is expected to cover over 90% of goods with zero tariffs, significantly reducing trade costs and optimizing China's foreign trade structure [15] - The collaboration includes establishing a "super factory" and "super market" that serves over 2 billion people, enhancing regional supply chains and market resilience [15][16] Group 3: Financial and Trade Defense Strategy - The simultaneous actions of increasing gold reserves and deepening trade ties with ASEAN are part of a broader strategy to fortify financial security and reshape trade structures [18][20] - The strategy aims to create a dual support system for financial and industrial resilience, reducing reliance on single markets and enhancing resource allocation flexibility [20][21] - The potential for increased use of RMB in ASEAN trade settlements could promote the internationalization of the currency, especially in light of upcoming financial pressures [21][23]

截至发稿，韩国综合指数、日经225指数跌幅分别为0.74%、0.69%。 | | 亚太市场(AP) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 泰国SET指数 | 1179.81 с | -0.78% | | 韩国KOSPI200 | 346.47 d | -0.83% | | 韩国综合指数 | 2606.06d | -0.74% | | 韩国KOSDAQ | 718.23d | -0.74% | | 日经225 | 37040.85d | -0.69% | | 富时马来西亚综指 | 1536.49 | -0.54% | | 富时新加坡海峡指数 | 3864.67 | -0.46% | | MSCI大平洋地区 | 3275.76 | -0.42% | 5月22日，亚太股市全线低开，而黄金再次飙涨。 港股低开，截至发稿，恒指跌0.4%。小鹏汽车涨近10%，公司昨日披露业绩与指引均好于预期；微博涨近3%，公司Q1归属股东净利润同比增长 116.36%。 A股三大指数均飘绿。化学原料板块短线走低，中毅达跌停。高位股调整，南京港跌停，苏州龙杰、连云港、百利电气、成飞集成等大幅低开。 富时中国A50指数期货直线 ...

鉴于美国的超常增长将经受住特朗普的考验，因此纵使在贸易政策上存在一些噪音，来自各类投资组合 的资金流入仍将持续。 自2022年底推出ChatGPT以来（我在2022年出版的《巨型威胁》一书中就预测过了），与人工智能相关 的投资推动了美国资本支出的繁荣。即使是关税和由此带来的不确定性也没能从根本上改变大多数大型 科技企业、人工智能超大规模云服务商和其他企业的运行指导方针。许多企业甚至将其人工智能投资翻 了一番。 如果技术能将经济增长从2%提高到4%，那么潜在增长率就可以提高200个基点。而即使那些严厉的贸 易保护和移民限制也最多只能使潜在增长减少50个基点。正负之比为四比一；从中期来看，技术将压倒 关税。 正如我最近在其他地方所论述的，就算是米老鼠当了总统，美国仍将实现4%的增长，因为美国私营部 门的创新有望抵消那些糟糕的政策和反复无常的政策制定。 由人工智能驱动的投资热潮还意味着无论是否征收高额关税，美国的经常账户赤字都将居高不下且呈现 上升趋势（反映出储蓄低迷与投资繁荣之间的反差）。但鉴于美国的超常增长将经受住特朗普的考验， 因此纵使在贸易政策上存在一些噪音，来自各类投资组合的资金流入仍将持续。尽管固定收益 ...

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the US remains, with significant implications from the recent tariff policies that could lead to retaliatory measures from trade partners, negatively impacting both the US and global economic growth while potentially increasing inflation in the long term [1][2]. Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The current US GDP growth rate is stable at over 2%, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a relatively healthy economy [19]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement 5-6 rate cuts by the end of 2025, although there is a possibility of accelerating these cuts to stimulate the economy [19]. Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The recent US tariff policies are more aggressive than previous rounds, raising concerns about their potential to cool down the global economy [2]. - Historical data shows that previous tariff increases have led to significant declines in both imports and exports, as seen during the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which resulted in a 66% drop in US imports from 1930 to 1933 [22]. Group 3: China Economic Performance - China's economy showed resilience in the first quarter, but the likelihood of a slowdown in the second quarter has increased, suggesting a cautious outlook for the year [3]. - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, indicating a stable but cautious economic strategy [26]. Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The performance of various metals since May indicates a mixed response to tariff announcements, with gold and silver prices declining by 3.9% and 1.3% respectively, while aluminum and tin saw increases of 1.7% and 1.8% [9]. - The volatility in the commodity market is expected to decrease in the second quarter, reflecting a more stable trading environment [31]. Group 5: Supply Chain and Industry Dynamics - Close attention is required on supply-side disruptions that could affect commodity pricing and availability [5]. - The influence of precious metals on the pricing dynamics of the non-ferrous sector is a critical area for monitoring [4].

Group 1 - India proposed retaliatory tariffs on certain US goods in response to the 25% tariffs imposed by the US on Indian steel and aluminum products, aiming to balance the economic losses caused by US measures [1] - The US tariffs have affected approximately $7.6 billion worth of Indian exports to the US, prompting India to consider suspending certain tariff benefits and increasing import tax rates on specific US products [1] - India's action at the WTO marks a shift towards a more assertive stance in global trade, reflecting a willingness to protect its economic interests within the framework of global trade rules [3] Group 2 - The recent developments in US-China trade negotiations, including significant tariff reductions, have created a complex backdrop for India's trade relations with the US, potentially influencing future tariff discussions [4] - India's previous conciliatory approach towards the US, including lowering import tariffs on around 8,500 industrial goods, has shifted as it now seeks to assert its rights in the face of US trade policies [3]