Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, nominated as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, possesses unique policy ideas that have led to market confusion regarding his approach to asset reduction, which he prioritizes as a reform task, contrasting sharply with current realities [2][4]. Group 1: Warsh's Policy Perspective - Warsh emphasizes the independence of the central bank but rejects the current leadership's reforms under Jerome Powell, indicating a significant divergence in views on the Fed's role [2][4]. - He believes that the Fed's asset expansion deviates from its core functions, resonating with the traditional Republican views of "small government" and "small central bank" [4]. - Warsh's tenure as a Fed governor began in 2006, and he played a crucial role during the financial crisis, but he later distanced himself from the Fed's quantitative easing policies, particularly after QE2 [4][5]. Group 2: Concerns About Fiscal Policy - Warsh expressed concerns that additional purchases of government bonds would entangle the Fed in politically charged fiscal policy, leading to his resignation from the Fed [5]. - He argues that the Fed's excessive involvement and poor performance have undermined the legitimacy of its monetary policy independence [5]. - The Fed's recent strategy under Powell, which tolerates inflation above 2%, has drawn criticism for its slow response to rising inflation, with Warsh suggesting that this crisis of independence is self-inflicted [5]. Group 3: Future Implications - Warsh advocates for a potential interest rate cut if it is coupled with a significant reduction in the central bank's asset portfolio, arguing that asset expansion injects excess funds into the market, which could lead to rising interest rates [5]. - Despite a long-term asset reduction plan, the Fed must proceed cautiously due to the complex web of transactions backed by U.S. Treasury securities [5][6]. - The evolving financial landscape over the past 15 years presents challenges for Warsh as he aims to leverage his close relationship with President Trump to navigate economic realities [6].

2月2日早盘，全球最大的加密货币比特币一度跌破76000美元/枚，较2025年峰值时期下跌约40%。截至发稿，比特币回升至77746.86美元/枚。 市场追踪机构Coinglass数据显示，同期全球共有超16万人被爆仓。 | 总爆仓 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1小时爆仓 | $3233.76万 | 4小时爆仓 | $1.82亿 | | 多車 | $944.27万 | 念車 | $1.33亿 | | 卒単 | $2289.49万 | 卒車 | $4877.71万 | | 12小时爆仓 | $4.03亿 | 24小时爆仓 | $4.89亿 | | 名車 | $3.00亿 | 多車 | $3.55亿 | | 卒車 | $1.03亿 | 卒車 | $1.35亿 | 与此同时，在沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席后，市场也担心他可能会收紧金融体系中的现金，给加密货币市场带来压力。据报道，美联储的决策对加 密货币市场至关重要，因为加密货币往往表现出所谓的"风险偏好"特性。当利率高企时，美国国债等收益更为安全的资产更具吸引力，从而将资金从加 密货币等波动性较大的资产中分流。相反，较低 ...

具体而言，投资者应以谨慎防守为主。黄金的长期配置价值虽在，但短期内需在新的宏观叙事下寻找合 理的估值中枢。白银风险已急剧放大，参与需极度谨慎。春节长假临近，外盘走势不确定性较大，保持 灵活仓位与充足流动性是首要纪律。 本次调整的直接触发点，是特朗普正式提名凯文·沃什为美联储下一任主席。凯文·沃什的提名本质上是 政治博弈与市场信任重建的结果。一方面，他历史上以批评量化宽松、强调央行独立性而闻名，政策主 张具有鲜明的"鹰派"色彩，特别是反对将资产负债表扩张作为常态工具，主张通过缩表来维护政策空 间。另一方面，他也同样支持通过降息来降低实体经济融资成本，其政策框架呈现出"既鹰又鸽"的矛盾 统一。对于市场而言，凯文·沃什的上任意味着"无约束宽松"的预期被彻底打破，政策路径将更加注重 纪律与平衡，这对前期建立在极端宽松叙事上的资产价格构成了直接冲击。 本次金银暴跌的深层原因则在于市场自身脆弱的运行状态。经历近一个月脱离基本面的急速拉升，金银 市场已积累了巨大的获利盘，技术性回调需求强烈。凯文·沃什的提名成为引爆市场获利了结的导火 索，最终演变为纽约期金单日最大跌幅超10%、白银大跌逾30%。 整体而言，此次金银调整更多 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the precious metals market, specifically gold and silver, and the implications of Kevin Warsh's nomination as the new Federal Reserve Chairman on monetary policy and market dynamics [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments Kevin Warsh's Nomination and Market Reactions - The significant volatility in gold and silver prices is partially attributed to Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, known for his hawkish stance and opposition to quantitative easing (QE) [1][2]. - Warsh's core philosophy advocates for reducing the Fed's balance sheet to control inflation, favoring simple rules over data-driven decisions [1][4]. - Despite the market's reaction, it is noted that Warsh's candidacy and views were already known since October of the previous year, suggesting that attributing the market's movements solely to his nomination may be overstated [2][5]. Market Expectations and Economic Implications - The market anticipates that Warsh will not implement aggressive balance sheet reductions immediately but will prioritize interest rate cuts to support economic growth [5][8]. - The recent performance of the U.S. stock market, with minor declines in major indices, indicates that there is no widespread expectation of liquidity tightening [5][11]. - Warsh's close relationship with the Trump administration may influence his policy decisions, potentially leading to compromises that favor short-term interest rate cuts over immediate radical reforms [6][7]. Challenges Facing the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve's primary challenges include balancing inflation control with economic growth and managing the long-term risks associated with fiscal monetization [8][9]. - The new chairman must adapt monetary policy tools flexibly and enhance communication with the market to maintain financial stability [8]. Factors Influencing Precious Metals Prices - Recent declines in gold and silver prices are attributed to multiple factors, including profit-taking, increased margin requirements by exchanges, and inflows into cryptocurrencies [3][10][21]. - The rapid rise in gold prices, with 45 historical highs in one year and a 30% increase in August alone, has led to significant profit-taking [10][21]. Future Market Dynamics - The future of the stock market will be influenced by liquidity conditions, ongoing monetary easing, and the sustainability of AI trends [3][20]. - Rising storage costs could impact various industries, ultimately affecting the economy and employment [20]. Inflation and Economic Risks - The potential for re-inflation risks, such as rising energy prices and commodity costs, poses challenges for the new Federal Reserve leadership [12][22]. - The relationship between the stock market's performance and the upcoming midterm elections is highlighted, emphasizing the need for a stable market to support electoral outcomes [9]. Additional Important Insights - The discussion touches on the limited impact of de-dollarization on gold and silver prices, indicating that while it plays a role, it is not the dominant factor driving market movements [14][18]. - The AI narrative and liquidity are identified as key drivers for the rise in AI-related stocks, which span various sectors including computing, energy, and automation [15][16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the implications of Kevin Warsh's nomination, market expectations, and the broader economic context affecting precious metals and stock markets.

2月2日早盘，全球最大的加密货币比特币一度跌破76000美元/枚，较2025年峰值时期下跌约40%。截至发稿，比特币回升至77746.86美元/枚。 Holonym首席执行官兼联合创始人沙迪.埃尔.达马蒂指出，外界普遍认为沃什比现任美联储主席鲍威尔更偏鹰派，他过去还曾批评量化宽松和美联储资产 负债表扩张。"这引发了人们的担忧，即若通胀再次上升，他可能在利率问题上采取更激进的举措。"达马蒂说，对加密货币而言，当前最大的问题就 是"不确定性"。 市场追踪机构Coinglass数据显示，同期全球共有超16万人被爆仓。 美国财富管理公司首席经济学家布莱恩.雅各布森认为，未来几天我们可能会看到更多加密货币抛售行为。 需要注意的是，与去年10月的下跌不同，此次比特币暴跌并非由明显的导火索或系统性冲击所致，而是由于需求减弱、流动性稀薄，以及其与更广泛市 场脱钩。此前，比特币未能对地缘政治紧张局势、美元走弱或避险资产上涨做出实质性反应。即使是近几周黄金、白银价格出现剧烈波动后，比特币也 未能吸引资金流入。换句话说，此次抛售并非源于恐慌情绪，而是由于缺乏买家、动力和信心。有分析总结称，比特币正在价格、(市场)相关联性、信 心这 ...

2月2日，国内贵金属期货价格普跌。文华财经数据显示，截至9:04，沪银期货主力合约跌停，沪金期货 主力合约跌超10%，铂期货主力合约跌停，钯期货主力合约跌超15%。 东证衍生品研究院宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示，近期，贵金属市场利空因素随后开始发酵。美联储1 月利率会议如期按兵不动，会议声明指出就业市场逐渐企稳，但通胀仍面临上行风险，这使得市场对美 联储短期降息的预期下降。美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话也未释放更多鸽派信号，本次会议整体偏空。此 外，美国财政部部长表示，将持续奉行强势美元政策，否认干预日元汇率，美元指数因此止跌回升。值 得一提的是，特朗普提名凯文・沃什为下一任美联储主席，引发市场情绪逆转。相较于其他候选人，沃 什的立场更为鹰派，尽管其满足特朗普的降息诉求，但对量化宽松持强烈反对态度。这意味着后续降息 与缩表的政策预期，标志着流动性全面释放的时期即将结束，美债收益率曲线将进一步陡峭化，金融市 场波动也将随之增加。 展望后市，徐颖表示，中长期来看，黄金价格的上涨逻辑并未发生逆转。近期对白银的炒作明显降温， 特朗普提名沃什为美联储主席等事件，成为行情逆转的导火索。短期地缘政治风险可能降温，美联储大 规模"放水 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Last Friday, Wash's nomination as Fed Chair triggered hawkish expectations, leading to an epic plunge in the global precious metals market. COMEX silver futures price dropped by over 35% and fell below the $75/ounce mark, COMEX gold futures price dropped by nearly 13% and fell below the $4,700/ounce mark, and NYMEX platinum and palladium futures prices also dropped by over 20% during the session. Although the precious metals futures prices rebounded slightly at the end of the session, they still recorded the largest single - day decline in history [2][6]. - Although Wash's nomination requires Senate approval, it is basically certain that he will replace Powell whose term ends in May. Wash, an originally hawkish official, may bring significant adjustments to the Fed's policy framework if he takes office. According to Deutsche Bank analysis, his policy may feature a combination of "interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction" [3][7]. - In the short term, the market will continue to digest the news of Wash's nomination, revise the previous expectation of significant interest rate cuts by the new Fed. The US dollar index will continue to rebound, and US Treasury yields will rise, putting continuous pressure on precious metals prices. Silver, which has seen a large increase in the previous period, will face greater adjustment pressure [3][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 1,161.42 | 45.78 | 4.10 | 187,299 | 178,255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 1,163.99 | 53.64 | 4.83 | 163,308 | 265,356 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4,907.50 | - 75.60 | - 1.52 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 27,941 | 4,810 | 20.79 | 522,479 | 634,627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 27,530 | 2,542 | 10.17 | 531,280 | 3,240,738 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 85.25 | - 18.01 | - 17.44 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 630.55 | - 55.35 | - 8.07 | 40,153 | 10,574 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 638.39 | - 43.11 | - 6.33 | | | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 2,178.20 | - 43.11 | - 21.46 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 464.05 | - 43.11 | - 6.81 | 19,151 | 10,574 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1,701.00 | - 43.11 | - 16.90 | | | US dollars/ounce | [4] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Wash's nomination as Fed Chair triggered hawkish expectations, causing a sharp decline in the precious metals market. Although prices rebounded slightly at the end, they still recorded the largest single - day decline in history [2][6]. - Wash, an originally hawkish official, may bring significant adjustments to the Fed's policy framework if he takes office. His policy may feature a combination of "interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction". However, some senators oppose his nomination [3][7]. - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% at the end - of - January meeting, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut, consistent with Trump's "appointed" director Milan. The Fed pointed out that the unemployment rate has shown initial signs of stabilization, inflation remains relatively high, and economic prospects are still highly uncertain [8]. - In the short term, the market will continue to digest the news of Wash's nomination, revise the previous expectation of significant interest rate cuts by the new Fed. The US dollar index will continue to rebound, and US Treasury yields will rise, putting continuous pressure on precious metals prices. Silver, which has seen a large increase in the previous period, will face greater adjustment pressure [3][10]. 3. Important Data Information - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 24 was 209,000, higher than the estimated 205,000 and the previous value of 200,000 (revised from 200,000 to 210,000). The number of continued jobless claims for the week ending January 17 was 1.827 million, lower than the market expectation of 1.86 million and the revised previous value of 1.865 million. The four - week moving average of initial jobless claims as of January 24 was 206,250, and the previous value was revised from 201,500 to 204,000 [11]. - The US Senate failed to advance the government appropriation bill passed by the House of Representatives in a procedural vote, and the US federal government is facing another partial "shutdown" crisis. The operating funds of several federal departments will be exhausted on January 30 [11]. - The initial GDP of the eurozone in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate for the whole year but higher than the market expectation of 1.2%. Spain's GDP growth led with 2.6%, Germany's growth exceeded expectations at 0.6%, and France's growth of 1.1% was lower than expected [11]. - The year - on - year growth rate of Tokyo's core CPI in January slowed from 2.3% to 2%, lower than the expected 2.2%, and it was the second consecutive month of slowdown, weakening the expectation of the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [11]. - The World Gold Council shows that in 2025, the gold - buying speed of central banks around the world slowed down by one - fifth to 863 tons, but it was still at a high level by historical standards. It is expected that the gold - buying volume in 2026 will further decline slightly to 850 tons. Meanwhile, retail and institutional investors have become the dominant force in gold buying, with investment demand surging by 84% to a record 2,175 tons, and the gold ETF holdings increased by 801 tons, ending four consecutive years of outflows [12]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, the inventory changes of COMEX and LBMA gold and silver, the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver, the holdings of SPDR gold and SLV silver, the price differences between Shanghai futures gold and Shanghai gold T + D, Shanghai futures silver and Shanghai silver T + D, the internal and external price differences of gold and silver, the COMEX gold - to - silver ratio, the US inflation expectation, the relationship between gold price and various factors (such as US dollar, copper price, VIX index, crude oil price, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US real interest rate), the Fed's balance - sheet size, the US government debt size, the copper - to - gold ratio, the US dollar index and the euro - to - US dollar exchange rate, the NYMEX platinum and palladium inventory, the NYMEX platinum - to - palladium ratio, and the non - commercial net positions of platinum and palladium futures and options [13][23][33][42][43]

报告要点： 上周五，凯文沃什被特朗普宣布提名为新任美联储主席。在新任联储主席候选人（包括哈 塞特、沃勒、里德尔）中，沃什的货币政策表态偏鹰派，且反对美联储无序扩张资产负债表透 支信用。消息公布后，市场对于美元信用受挫和联储后续大幅降息的预期有所缓和，金银价格 出现大幅下跌。 专题报告 2026-02-02 蒋文斌 宏观金融组 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 贵金属：沃什被提名为联储主席，金银价格受挫 贵金属研究 一、凯文沃什被提名为联储主席令金银价格重挫 特朗普宣布"温和鹰派"凯文沃什为新任美联储主席提名人选，宽松货币政策预期受到 重挫，是金银价格在周五出现大幅下跌的主要原因：特朗普于周五宣布正式提名前美联储理事 凯文沃什为新任联储主席。在沃什前一联储理事任期中，他主张减少货币政策对于市场的干预， 呈现温和偏鹰派的表态。在利率和资产负债表操作方面，沃什反对进行长期的量化宽松和零利 率政策，并批评美联储的资产负债表扩张大幅透支央行信用。在联储政策目标方面，他强调要 坚守 2%的通胀目标。而在联储的职能权限方面，他批评美联储" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On February 2, 2026, influenced by Trump's nomination of Warsh as the next Fed Chair on January 30 and the hawkish statements of multiple voting members, the market adopted a hawkish outlook. Combined with multiple negative factors such as the exemption of silver tariffs and the loosening of internal and external supply - demand patterns, gold and silver futures and spot prices tumbled, breaking the previous strong pattern of gold and silver driven by the weakening of the US dollar's credit. In the short - term, the US dollar may remain strong supported by liquidity tightening from balance - sheet reduction and the relative resilience of the US economy, but in the long - run, the long - term logic of the weakening of the US dollar's credit has not fundamentally reversed, and the risk of exchange - rate fluctuations will increase. Emerging markets will face the dual pressures of capital outflows and currency depreciation. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now, with the reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract being 950 - 1160 yuan/gram and that for the main Shanghai silver contract being 18000 - 22450 yuan/kilogram [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Quotes and Information - **Precious Metal Prices**: Shanghai gold dropped 7.07% to 1079.2 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 11.13% to 24832.00 yuan/gram. COMEX gold was reported at 4749.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 78.53 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.26%, and the US dollar index was 97.12 [2] - **Policy News**: On January 30, Trump nominated Warsh, a former Fed governor, as the next Fed Chair. Warsh showed a dovish stance during the campaign but may return to a hawkish stance in the medium - to - long - term. After the nomination, Fed voting members Bostic, Bowman, and Musalem made hawkish statements, which pushed up the market's hawkish expectations and led to a plunge in gold and silver prices. The decline in silver prices was also affected by tariff exemptions and changes in spot inventory. The Trump administration exempted key metals including silver from tariffs in mid - January, and the continuous outflow of CME silver inventory alleviated the shortage of overseas silver spot, while the short - term investment demand in the domestic market eased, putting pressure on silver prices [2][3] 3.2. Strategy Views - **Market Analysis**: The market's hawkish expectations, combined with multiple negative factors for silver, led to a collective decline in gold and silver prices. The short - term strength of the US dollar is supported by balance - sheet reduction and the relative resilience of the US economy, but in the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar's credit remains a concern. Emerging markets will face capital outflows and currency depreciation pressures [4] - **Investment Strategy**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 950 - 1160 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 18000 - 22450 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.3. Data Tables and Graphs - **Data Tables**: The table presents detailed data on gold and silver, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and precipitation funds in different markets (COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc.) on January 30, 2026, and January 29, 2026, along with daily changes, daily percentage changes, and historical quantiles over the past year [7] - **Graphs**: There are multiple graphs showing the relationships between precious metal prices and various factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volumes, and open interests, as well as the near - far month structures and internal - external price differences of gold and silver [9][12][17][22][23][27][29][40][47][52][54][59]

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump shifts the focus from short-term interest rates to the Fed's $6.6 trillion balance sheet and its role in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Warsh's Critique and Potential Actions - Warsh has been a vocal critic of the Fed's asset expansion, leading to speculation that he may quickly initiate balance sheet reduction if appointed [3][4]. - His views align with Treasury Secretary Scott Pruitt, advocating for a reversal of the Fed's overreach, which could impact long-term interest rates and global financial institutions [3][4]. - Warsh's proposed reforms include redefining the relationship between the Fed and the Treasury, similar to the 1951 agreement, to clarify their objectives regarding the Fed's balance sheet size [5][6]. Group 2: Market Implications of Balance Sheet Reduction - If Warsh opposes using the balance sheet to lower yields, the Treasury may bear more responsibility for managing borrowing costs, especially as national debt exceeds $30 trillion [4][5]. - Warsh argues that reducing the balance sheet could create more room for the Fed to lower benchmark interest rates, potentially offsetting the impact of tightening financial conditions [6][7]. - Historical context shows that the Fed's aggressive bond-buying policies have led to artificially low long-term borrowing rates, encouraging excessive risk-taking in financial markets [6][7]. Group 3: Challenges and Market Reactions - Reducing the Fed's footprint is complex, as the current balance sheet is significantly larger than during Warsh's previous tenure, making liquidity in the money market sensitive to changes [7][8]. - The Fed's framework of "ample reserves" complicates the transition back to a scarcity of reserves, which could lead to increased borrowing and volatility in the balance sheet [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that Warsh could either halt Treasury purchases to allow funding costs to rise or adjust the composition of the Fed's bond portfolio to better match liabilities [9][10].