Group 1: Gold Market - Last week, gold experienced a rapid decline near the close, dropping nearly $100, which significantly impacted short-term trends, but this may be attributed to profit-taking, with long-term prospects for gold remaining positive [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was perceived as hawkish, yet the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices reached all-time highs, indicating that the market does not view the Fed as overly hawkish, and further monetary easing is expected [1] - The Fed's announcement of a $40 billion monthly purchase of short-term government bonds is interpreted as a signal for a new quantitative easing phase, with potential purchases of about $500 billion next year, indicating aggressive liquidity injection [1] - Quantitative easing is expected to devalue purchasing power, potentially leading to high inflation in the U.S., which could benefit precious metals like gold [1] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bullish candle, indicating an expanding upward structure and a long-term bullish outlook, with short-term support at $4,325 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Last week, oil prices continued to decline, but signs of a slowdown in the downtrend suggest a potential short-term rebound, although the medium to long-term outlook remains constrained by oversupply [3] - If the Russia-Ukraine conflict is resolved, Russian oil could quickly return to the market, significantly impacting oil prices; however, recent talks have not yielded a compromise, and sanctions on Russian oil are expected to remain in place [3] - Even without Russian oil returning to the market, the supply-demand imbalance persists, with production gaps left by Russia likely filled by non-OPEC+ producers like the U.S. and Brazil, leading to a projected global surplus of 4.09 million barrels per day by 2026, equivalent to 4% of global demand [3] - Technically, oil's daily chart shows a small bullish candle, with clear support at previous lows, but the downtrend remains intact; short-term traders may focus on a potential rebound, with resistance at $58 [3] Group 3: Currency Market - Following the Fed's December meeting, the U.S. dollar index has weakened, reaching a new low since early October, and may continue to decline due to the Fed's monetary policy and the appreciation potential of non-U.S. currencies [3][4] - Market expectations for continued rate cuts in 2026 persist despite Powell's emphasis on higher thresholds for further cuts, with potential leadership changes at the Fed possibly leading to more accommodative policies [4] - The Bank of Japan's recent signals for potential interest rate hikes and the lack of further rate cuts in the Eurozone are significant factors contributing to the dollar's weakness [5] - Technically, the dollar index's daily chart shows a double top breakout and bearish divergence in moving averages, indicating a downtrend; short-term traders may look for resistance at 68.56 [5] Group 4: Economic Events - The U.S. National Economic Council Director Hassett indicated that if selected to lead the Fed, he would consider Trump's policy opinions, but the Fed's rate decisions would remain independent [6] - Japanese central bank officials may begin selling ETF holdings as early as next month, a process expected to take decades [6] - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed a willingness to abandon Ukraine's NATO membership in negotiations regarding a potential peace agreement with the U.S. [6]

百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，量化宽松，在提供充足流动性的情况下，也会带动货币购买力的贬值，甚至可能导 致美国通胀高企，黄金等贵金属将会受益。 黄金方面： 上周临近收盘黄金出现快速跳水，短线跳水近100美元，对短线走势结构形成很大冲击，但这可能只是短线获利盘平仓带动短期 抛盘增加，长期来看黄金依旧值得期待。 上周美联储的降息被视为是鹰派降息，但降息结果落地后，标普500指数和道琼斯指数双双创下历史新高，市场认为美联储并没 有那么鹰派，美联储的货币政策还会继续放松。 特别是美联储宣布每月购买400亿美元短期国债的储备管理计划，被市场解读为，美联储即将开启新的量化宽松，美联储明年可 能将购买约5000亿美元的短期国债，可视为激进的流动性投放信号。 技术面：黄金日线收小阳线，日线上升结构扩大化，形成上升中继形态，长期看涨。1小时周期价格基本收复上周的大阴线，多 头动能增强，短线可关注下方4325美元一线的支撑。 原油方面： 上周原油继续维持下跌走势，但短线有下跌放缓的迹象，不排除短线会有反弹的可能，中长线受制于供过于求的基本面，多方 很难占据绝对的主动权。 若俄乌冲突解决，俄罗斯原油在短期内可能会快速重返市 ...

上周金价平稳上涨。伦敦现货黄金收于4，299美元/盎司（周环比2.4%），国内AU9999黄金收于964元/ 克（周环比1.0%）。 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 12月美联储议息会议如期降息25bp，但联储内部对于后续降息节奏的分歧较大，本次利率决议共有三个 反对票，联储理事米兰认为应降息50bp，两位地方联储主席主张不降息。 点阵图中值指示明年仍有1次降息。预期26年降息0-1-2-3-4次的委员分别为4-4-4-2-1人，另有1人（预计 为米兰）预期应大幅降息6次，还有3人预期26年应加息1次。点阵图分布更加离散，显示联储内部分歧 较大。 发布会上鲍威尔主席表态偏鸽，更为关注就业下行风险，认为通胀风险逐渐缓解。其认为政策利率处于 中性利率估计范围，联储可以边走边看，并不急于降息。就业方面，其认为就业市场仍在降温，新增就 业被系统性高估；人工智能可能是就业疲软的原因之一，但其影响程度并不大。通胀方面，其认为若无 新增关税，关税对通胀的影响可能会在26Q1见顶，明年下半年通胀将有所回落。 在经济展望中，美联储上修了经济增长、下修失业率和PCE通胀预期。在政府重新开门、财政货币双宽 松、AI投资强劲以及关税通胀效 ...

12月15日：黄金市场上周：国际黄金如期在持稳5-10周均线上方，强势反弹收阳，并再度触及趋势线压 力，虽仍有再度遇阻回落调整的风险，但整体前景仍看好上行，故此，如有回落，也是入场看涨的机 会。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于4196.40美元/盎司，先行筑底震荡，于周二录得当周低点4170.19美元后， 连续震荡回升，周四多头动力加大突破之前震荡阻力，周五进一步攀升录得当周高点4353.49美元，但 尾盘明显回撤跳水，最终收于4301.15美元，周振幅183.3美元，收涨104.75美元，涨幅2.5%。 影响上，周初走势先行延续近期震荡格局波动，之后受到支撑买盘，以及美联储在降息落地后表示会在 未来30天内购买400亿美元短债（变相放水），以及鲍威尔虽未就近期是否再次降息提供明确指引，但 表示不包含未来加息情景，被市场解读为存在明年1月进一步降息的可能； 再加上特朗普批评鲍威尔：降息幅度太小，可以翻倍，应降至全球最低。还有美国周初请失业金人数创 下疫情后最大单周增幅。进一步提升了市场对于未来降息前景的预期，而助力金价多头延续到周五触及 当周高点，但由于周五的众多美联储官员偏鹰讲话和获利了结而回撤收线。 展望本周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve decision to cut interest rates and initiate a "mini quantitative easing" has led to a significant surge in gold prices, reaching a one-month high, while silver has also hit a record high [1][2][3]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.50%-3.75% [7]. - A "mini QE" program will begin on December 12, involving the purchase of approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills to manage market liquidity [2][10]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the labor market faces risks and downplayed inflation concerns, suggesting that further rate hikes are unlikely in the near future [7][9]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the dollar index fell to an eight-week low, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers, which contributed to the rise in gold prices [3][9]. - Gold prices closed up $51.17, or 1.21%, at $4,279.64 per ounce, with a notable increase in momentum due to the Fed's actions [2][12]. - Silver prices also surged, reaching a high of $64.31 per ounce, driven by strong market sentiment [6]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 236,000, the largest increase since July 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [11]. - The 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 3 basis points to 4.122%, and the real yield fell nearly 2.5 basis points to 1.872%, supporting the rise in gold prices [3][9]. Technical Analysis - Analysts suggest that if gold closes above $4,300 per ounce, it could challenge $4,350 and potentially reach the historical high of $4,381 [12]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,250 and $4,200 per ounce, with further support at the 20-day simple moving average at $4,158 per ounce [14].

此时重开量化宽松在政治上不正确，美联储唯有暗渡陈仓，启动储备管理型买债。 美联储12月1日刚刚结束量化紧缩（QT），12月10日即开启了扩表，这种政策切换速度十分罕见，说明 货币当局意识到流动性短缺，更意识到了明年海外资金流入将下降。其他国家加息或停止降息，美国利 率却下行，日元套利交易可能全面拆仓，欧洲及离岸美元流入美元资产的数量可能萎缩，美债融资势必 面临更大的挑战。美联储必须尽快向体系内重新注入流动性。 然而此时此刻，重开量化宽松（QE）在政治上不正确，美联储唯有暗渡陈仓，启动储备管理型买债 （RMP）。这是投资组合层面的调整，属于技术性调整，不太招摇过市，对国会和选民较易交代，同 时也起到了对资金市场"补水"的作用。在笔者眼中，这仍是扩张资产负债表，就是QE，目前集中在短 债购买上，早晚会扩展到长年期债购买。 笔者预期，美联储明年会在资金成本和流动性两条战线同时着手，营造更宽松的货币环境，利好美股。 同时美元对其他货币贬值，直至其他国家央行也重启宽松政策。以欧央行为首的不少工业国央行曾经暗 示降息结束，不过本土经济增长乏力。要是美国率先QE，相信其他国家也会跟进，新一轮全球QE可能 就此展开，美元汇率 ...

哈内特在12月12日的报告中表示，经过修订的、被广泛关注的反向指标——美银牛熊指标已升至7.8，使 市场仓位"接近极度看涨"区域。该指标此前在10月初曾触及8.9，这一水平在历史上通常与战术性市场顶 部相关。 市场押注繁荣，收益率走低 投资者正在押注一种既能支持增长又不会导致借贷成本大幅上升的政策背景。哈内特表示，这种平衡可 以通过生产率的飙升或美元的大幅贬值来实现。这种紧张关系正体现在各种资产关系中，包括白银价格 首次与石油平价(自1980年以来)，以及长期主权债务的持续崩盘;奥地利的100年期债券现已从2020年3月 的峰值下跌了76%。 这位策略师补充说，总统特朗普的竞选优先事项，例如限制收益率、干预关键行业以及探索稳定币框架 等，可能会加强在不让长期利率上升的情况下维持增长的努力。 轮动至小型股 哈内特强调的最引人注目的转变之一是资金从超大市值股票轮动到美国小型股。相对表现指标显示，微 型股和中型股的表现优于超大市值股，扭转了大型科技和消费平台公司多年来的主导地位。 哈内特将此举与对2026年经济将更热、受国内驱动更多的预期联系起来。消费者行为数据显示，支出继 续按收入阶层分化(法拉利表现明显逊于通用 ...

周度报告-黄金 美联储降息落地，金价震荡收涨 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 2.4%至 4299 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率升至 4.18%， 通胀预期 2.27%，实际利率上行至 1.91%，美元指数跌 0.6%至 98.4， 标普 500 指数跌 0.63%，人民币走势震荡，沪金折价扩大。 贵 金 属 金价震荡收涨，白银大涨，金银比一度下降至 67，美联储降息 25bp 落地后，市场情绪一度攀升推动金银铜有色金属联袂上涨，但股 债汇市场表现不如大宗商品，周五两位投票反对降息的鹰派票委 发表讲话后，市场风险偏好降温，股市和大宗商品集体回调。本 次会议整体表态没有超预期鹰派，但美联储上调明年的经济增长 预期，点阵图显示 2026、2027 年各有一次降息，未来的降息空间 有限，美联储内部分歧空前加大，后续市场对降息节奏的博弈增 加。同时，市场等待下任美联储人选落地，继哈塞特之后，特朗 普再度表示前美联储理事凯文·沃什当选的可能性位居榜首，不 管是选谁，标准都是满足特朗普的降息倾向。除了降息以外，美 联储开始准备金管理计划维持准备金规模充足，到期再投资也用 来购买短债，12 月 R ...

TS Lombard首席经济学家Stephen Blitz认为，美联储重启资产负债表购买操作，实质是为财政部支出提供融资保障，两大机构资产负债表实正走 向"合并"。随着Kevin Hassett等潜在继任者进入美联储，贝森特实际上将成为他的"老板"，财政部将主导融资策略，即通过短端注入流动性压低融资 成本，而这种廉价资金策略将推高2026年通胀。 周日，TS Lombard首席美国经济学家Stephen Blitz撰文指出，美联储即将迎来一场巨大的颠覆。随着财政部与美联储的界限日益模糊，两大机构的资 产负债表实际上正在走向"合并"，而财政部长贝森特在这一新架构中扮演关键角色，成为实质上的"影子联储主席"。 Blitz表示，美联储最新的政策信号表明，其正在重启资产负债表购买操作，计划于1月开始购买400亿美元的国库券并在2月进一步增加。尽管官方说法 是为应对总账户（TGA）在4月的膨胀及管理货币市场利率，但这一举措的实质是美联储承诺为财政部支出提供融资保障，确保存款机构融资不会出现 利率波动。 这一转变不仅意味着美联储将平抑市场波动，更标志着市场向政府发出的"支出超载"信号将失效。在这种架构下，未来的政策协调将 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant shift in the relationship between the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve, suggesting a de facto "merger" of their balance sheets, with Treasury Secretary Yellen playing a pivotal role as an "shadow Fed Chair" [1][4] - The Federal Reserve plans to restart asset purchases, beginning with $40 billion in Treasury bills in January, which is seen as a commitment to finance Treasury expenditures and stabilize market interest rates [1][3] - This new framework indicates that the market's ability to signal government spending limits through interest rates will be diminished, leading to a tighter coordination of policies between the Treasury and the Fed [4][5] Treasury and Federal Reserve Merger - The Federal Reserve's decision to resume bond purchases fundamentally alters traditional market dynamics, as it aims to set money market rates rather than manage them through open market operations [3] - The Fed's actions are intended to ensure that Treasury spending can be financed without causing interest rate "blockages," effectively merging the operational roles of the two institutions [4] New Power Structure - Should Kevin Hassett be confirmed as a potential Fed official, Secretary Yellen will effectively become his "boss," establishing a "single presidential authority" for daily communication and coordination [5] - The goal is to achieve low financing costs by injecting liquidity into the short end of the market, which is expected to contribute to rising inflation expectations by 2026 [5] Economic Outlook - The article highlights a concerning economic outlook, with recent labor data revisions indicating a downward trend in employment, suggesting a potential for further Fed rate cuts [7][8] - While short-term monetary easing is anticipated, long-term inflation risks remain, with fiscal policy expected to support economic activity and inflation potentially resurfacing in late 2026 or 2027 [8]