凯投宏观分析师Paul Ashworth写道："美联储7月会议纪要显示，除了两名希望在7月降息的理事投反对 票外，其他美联储官员普遍认同维持利率不变。就这一点而言，这对9月会议来说是一个略偏鹰派的信 号。但由于纪要的时间早于惨淡的7月就业报告，因此很难从纪要中获得太多关于未来的线索。鉴于后 续发布的数据，这份纪要显然已经过时，美联储主席鲍威尔本周在杰克逊霍尔的演讲，应该会更深入地 揭示9月降息是否已成定局。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for three consecutive months since its decline in May, indicating a careful timing of policy adjustments in a complex economic environment [1] - Current interest rates provide substantial support to the real economy, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, reflecting a decrease of about 45 and 30 basis points year-on-year respectively [1] - The effects of previous low-interest rate policies are gradually being realized, as evidenced by the recovery in M1 growth, the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3700 points, and the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeding 100 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - In the context of uneven economic recovery, targeted tools are preferred over broad rate cuts to enhance policy effectiveness, avoiding inefficient capital allocation while injecting targeted momentum into specific weak areas [2] - Structural contradictions in the economy still leave room for future rate cuts, as there is a coexistence of insufficient domestic demand and excessive competition on the supply side, necessitating a moderately loose monetary policy to counterbalance these pressures [3] - The timing of potential rate cuts is crucial and should align with the pace of price recovery, as the central bank emphasizes promoting reasonable price increases as a key consideration for monetary policy [3]

Market Overview - US stock indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.23%, S&P 500 down 0.84%, and Nasdaq Composite dropping 1.51% [1] - Major tech stocks fell, with the "Magnificent Seven" index down 2%, and Nvidia and Tesla dropping over 3% [1] - Nvidia's market value decreased by over $155 billion following a 3.5% drop on August 19, continuing its decline with a further drop of 3.54% [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, maintaining the same growth rate as June, while the core CPI rose to 3.1% from 2.9% in June, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [3] - The market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased following the stable CPI data [3] Investment Sentiment - Wall Street shows mixed views on the future of US stocks, with a prevailing optimistic sentiment as several financial institutions raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 index [5] - Citigroup raised its target from 6300 to 6600, while UBS increased its target from 5500 to 6100 [5] - A survey indicated that 45% of fund managers consider "going long on the Magnificent Seven" as the most crowded trade [5] Valuation Concerns - Howard Marks from Oaktree Capital noted that while the average P/E ratio for the Magnificent Seven is about 33, it is justified due to their strong market positions and profitability [6] - In contrast, the average P/E ratio for the remaining S&P 500 companies is 22, significantly above historical averages, raising concerns about overall market valuation [6] Economic Outlook - Stifel warned of a potential downturn, suggesting that the S&P 500 could drop by up to 14% by year-end, potentially closing at 5500 [6] - Morgan Stanley's CIO highlighted mixed signals in economic data, indicating risks from a cooling labor market and rising price pressures [6]

8月20日，央行披露最新一期的LPR（贷款市场报价利率）报价，如预期般，未有变化。 自5月下降以来，LPR已连续三个月维持不变。这表明央行正在复杂经济环境中对政策时机进行精准把 控，降息选项，也正在等待更契合经济修复节奏的发力窗口。 当前利率环境已为实体经济提供了充分支撑。7月新发放企业贷款利率约3.2%，新发放个人住房贷款利 率约3.1%，分别较去年同期下降约45个和30个基点。企业与居民获取资金的成本处于历史低位。从这 一视角看，信贷资源供给总体是充裕的。 从市场反馈看，前期低利率政策的效果正在逐步释放。M1增速回升显示企业经营活力增强，沪指站上 3700点、A股总市值突破100万亿元，更是宏观经济韧性与市场信心共振的直接体现。此时保持利率稳 定，既是对经济复苏势头的巩固，也是对过度宽松可能引发的资金空转、资产泡沫等风险的主动防范。 结构性工具的优先发力，进一步解释了当前暂不降息的政策逻辑。央行在二季度货币政策执行报告中明 确强调，落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，四篇专栏聚焦结构性支持的表述，清晰传递出下半年政策重 心。 在经济复苏不均衡的背景下，通过定向工具精准滴灌科技创新、小微企业、消费等领域，比总量降息 ...

Market Overview - US stock market indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.23%, S&P 500 down 0.84%, and Nasdaq down 1.51%, falling below 21,000 points [1] - Major tech stocks, including Nvidia and Tesla, saw declines exceeding 3%, contributing to the overall market downturn [1][2] Technology Sector - Nvidia's stock fell by 3.5%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over $155 billion, with further declines noted on subsequent trading days [2][3] - The technology sector's performance is under scrutiny, with the "Big Seven" tech stocks being a focal point for investors, as 45% of fund managers consider "going long" on these stocks the most crowded trade [10] Economic Indicators - The US consumer price index (CPI) showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7% in July, maintaining the same growth rate as June, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [7][8] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are tempered, with analysts suggesting that a 50 basis point cut is unlikely [6] Investment Sentiment - Optimism in the market is reflected in revised year-end targets for the S&P 500, with Citigroup raising its target from 6,300 to 6,600 points and UBS from 5,500 to 6,100 points [9] - Despite the positive sentiment, there are warnings from investment firms about potential economic slowdowns and the risks associated with high valuations in the stock market [11]

因此，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的讲话将受到密切关注，看其基调是否会发生变化，尤其是在经济增 长继续放缓的情况下，美联储对通胀的容忍度方面。 8月20日欧洲交易时段，现货黄金小幅反弹，目前交投于3318.88美元/盎司附近；现货白银续了连续第 五个交易日的连跌势头，周三亚洲时段交易价格约为每金衡盎司 37.20 美元。交易员无视了美国国债收 益率的下跌，金价回落至3320美元水平。随着金银比接近89.00，白银跌向37.30美元。贵金属价格在下 降通道模式内盘整，表明普遍存在看跌倾向。 【要闻速递】 最近几周，一些关键的美国经济数据出人意料地下行，而强于预期的PPI数据提醒市场，特朗普的关税 政策可能仍会带来通胀压力。尽管这一数据暂时冷却了一系列更大幅度或更快的降息预期，但市场仍认 为，在9月FOMC会议上降息25个基点的可能性很大，但此后的路径仍不确定。 对黄金而言，这种不确定性加上夏季假期市场，已转化为僵局，导致市场区间波动，在稳定的投资需求 的支撑下，过去三个月金价在3350美元附近徘徊。白银也缺乏动力，工业需求和结构性赤字，加上强劲 的基础技术面提供支撑，但在缺乏新的推动力的情况下，投机性多头表现出降低 ...

2025.08.20 周三 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 反正，标普是提前转向了。标普全球确认美国的信用评级为"AA+"，在声明中表示："目前看来，关税收入的大幅增加有可能抵消近期预算立法中导致赤字 增加的部分。" OK~所以怎么说呢，这次是真的不一样，将降息抬上日程，对黄金好吗？好。但是这玩意儿我怕是镜中花水中月诶，谈不上抄底，有机会做个多得了。 我倒要看看，这次是怎么个不一样法。 黄金正儿八经的是昨天横盘了一天，在美盘后半段，准确来说是十一点钟，才松手下撤，刷新低点。隔夜一度触及3311一带，报收一根含长上影线的中阴烛 体。 好消息，黄金下破前低，高低点依次下移，或将带动大周期构成抄底机会； 坏消息，黄金这次的下撤，刚好就打在斐波那契扩展线的支撑上，按这个节奏，不能一段一涨吧？ 中等消息，市场似乎在等周四开始的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，虽说以往都是利多美股的，但是听说"这次不一样"。 不一样在哪里呢，是在说明年美联储换掌舵人这件事吗。老特在百忙中再次diss老鲍，称"他正非常严重地伤害房地产业"，并在此重述应该降息的事情。 同时，财长贝森特称，他将在9月1日劳动节假期前后开始与11位有实力接替美 ...

Core Insights - July inflation in the UK unexpectedly accelerated to 3.8%, the fastest rate in a year and a half, impacting expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England [1][3] - The inflation rate exceeded the 3.7% forecast by economists and was higher than June's 3.6% [3] - Key drivers of inflation included rising transportation costs, particularly airfares, and automotive fuel prices, with food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increasing by 4.9% year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month [3] Economic Indicators - Service sector inflation rose to 5% in July, up from 4.7% in June, indicating significant price pressures within the economy [3] - The Bank of England faces dual challenges of inflation rebound and sluggish economic growth, having recently cut rates by 25 basis points to 4% while raising inflation forecasts [3][4] - The anticipated inflation for September is projected to reach 4%, double the Bank's target of 2%, with expectations that it will only return to target by 2027 [3] Employment and Economic Growth - There are signs of a weakening job market in the UK, with rising unemployment rates and a decline in employment numbers from May to June, which may hinder wage growth [4] - The UK GDP growth for the second quarter was only 0.3%, a slowdown from 0.7% in the first quarter, influenced by global commodity stockpiling that had previously boosted exports [4] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The unexpected inflation data diminishes the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England in September, with core inflation pressures raising doubts about further policy easing this year [4] - Some analysts suggest that the Bank may overlook certain one-off factors driving price increases and could still consider another rate cut within the year [5]

摘要今日周三（8月20日)亚盘时段，金价刷新本周低点，目标是延续跌势，并测试3300美元/盎司。 今日周三（8月20日)亚盘时段，金价刷新本周低点，目标是延续跌势，并测试3300美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 在周二的交易中，现货黄金收盘时下跌了17.09美元，最终报收于3315.55美元/盎司。此轮跌势使得金价 创下了自8月1日以来的最低水平。 值得关注的是，美联储将于周三公布其7月会议纪要，这份文件有望为市场揭示有关美国经济前景的重 要线索，预计届时将在黄金市场掀起较大波动。 具体而言，北京时间周四凌晨02:00，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将正式公布货币政策会议纪 要。与此同时，北京时间03:00，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克也将就经济前景发表重要讲话。 据Bednarik分析指出，当前市场参与者正翘首以盼周三即将发布的FOMC会议纪要以及本周举行的杰克 逊霍尔研讨会。投资者们将全神贯注地聆听政策制定者的发言，试图从中捕捉到关于未来货币政策走向 的潜在信号。 在当前的市场行情中，黄金价格已然跌破了3330这一关键支撑位，由此步入了弱势格局。今日，市场焦 点将集中在3330点的得失情况上，以此判断行情究竟是 ...

市场普遍预计新西兰央行将在今日降息，将官方隔夜拆款利率下调25个基点，至3.00%。此次降息将延 续去年以来的一系列激进降息举措，经济学家警告称，需要进一步放宽政策以刺激经济增长并遏制失业 率上升。经济学家表示，通胀率已回到目标区间，该央行在未来几个月有空间采取超越中性水平的政策 立场。贸易战等全球性因素也在给该国经济带来压力。 ...