作者 本周（11 月 17 日当周）金价将高位震荡。随着美国政府重启， 本周四将公布 9 月就业数据。考虑到季节性因素，9 月非农就 业数据或表现较好，但近期公布的替代性就业数据——ADP 私 营部门就业数据表现偏弱，显示 10 月、11 月就业数据并不乐 观，加之美国政府长期关门也对就业市场形成一定拖累，9 月 非农数据较好给金价造成的压力料有限。不过，本周也将迎来 多位美联储官员发言，若他们表态继续偏鹰，将对金价形成扰 动。另外，本周美国科技股仍在下跌，也对金价上行形成约束。 整体上看，预计本周金价难以出现单边行情，大概率将呈现高 位震荡格局。 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 多位美联储官员发表鹰派言论，导致金价冲高回落 黄金周报（2025.11.10-2025.11.16） 核心观点 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 2024 年 11 月 18 日 多位美联储官员发表鹰派言论，导致金价冲高回落。上周五 （11 月 14 日），沪金主力期货价格较前周五回升 3.47%至 953.20 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前周五上涨 1.91% 至 4084.40 美元/盎司 ...

美元指数技术分析 从DXY日线结构来看，美元指数当前处于低位震荡修复阶段，短期反弹动能温和但尚未形成趋势逆 转。9日与20日均线呈走平状态，显示价格仍处于整理区间；RSI指标位于50附近徘徊，表明多空力量 接近均衡； 上方阻力100.00为强压力区域，突破后可看向100.50–100.80；下方支撑99.20–99.00区间构成短线防守 位，若跌破恐进一步回探98.60与98.20。技术面总体偏中性，等待重大数据催化方向。 与此同时，多位地区联储主席对通胀表现表示担忧，并倾向于维持当前利率水平。据市场调查显示的机 构分析指出："在数据空窗期间，官员言论会被市场放大，短线上会增添美元的波动性。" 美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊昨日明确表态，在逐步趋近中性利率的过程中，降息步伐需保持审慎推 进。 与之相对，下任美联储主席五位核心候选人之一的理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，公开主张延续降息进程。 他警示美国劳动力市场已接近停滞边缘，薪资下行、职位空缺率与离职率同步回落，反映劳动力需求萎 缩，且无需担忧通胀反弹。 基于此，沃勒明确支持12月10日议息会议再降25个基点，目前市场隐含降息概率已达46%。 周三（11月19日）亚洲时段 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: In a state of oscillatory adjustment [2]. - Copper: Both domestic and overseas inventories are increasing, putting pressure on prices [2]. - Zinc: Trading within a range [2]. - Lead: Decreasing inventories limit price declines [2]. - Tin: Declining from a high level [2]. - Aluminum: Slightly stabilizing [2]. - Alumina: Trading within a range [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support levels and are under pressure, moving in a volatile manner [2]. - Stainless steel: Weak market realities are suppressing steel prices, but there is limited downside [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 918.52, down 1.18%, and the night - session closing price was 929.84, up 0.94%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 11687, down 1.78%, and the night - session closing price was 11949, up 0.51%. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, ETF holdings, inventories, and price spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "small non - farm" ADP weekly employment data showed that the average weekly employment in the US private sector decreased by 2500 people in the four weeks up to November 1st. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week of October 18th was 232,000, the first release since the government shutdown led to the absence of official reports. The Saudi Crown Prince's visit to the US and related investment and trade news, Trump's claim of selecting a Fed chair candidate, and the Japanese central bank governor's hint of a rate - hike determination [4][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 0 [6]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 85,660, down 0.91%, and the night - session closing price was 85900, up 0.28%. Both domestic and overseas inventories increased, and there were changes in price spreads [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Before the release of NVIDIA's earnings report and the non - farm payroll report, investors chose to stay on the sidelines. Amazon's issuance of large - scale bonds and warnings from the "New Bond King" about the private credit market led to the selling of risk assets. The "New Fed Wire" reported that there may be at least 3 dissenting votes at the Fed's December meeting. Peruvian copper production increased in September, and a copper mine project in Chile obtained environmental approval. Chinese copper product output declined in October [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 0 [10]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22310, down 0.69%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, price spreads, and inventories [11]. - **News**: The White House is reviewing a new rule to tax US citizens' overseas crypto - assets. Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Anthropic established a strategic partnership with significant investments [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17230, down 0.72%. Both domestic and overseas inventories decreased [14]. - **News**: Similar to the macro news in the copper section, investors were cautious before the release of important reports, and there may be dissenting votes at the Fed's December meeting [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 288,890, down 0.51%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and price spreads [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the gold and silver section, including employment data, Saudi - US relations, Fed chair selection, and Japanese central bank news [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of - 1 [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: For aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21465. There were changes in trading volume, positions, price spreads, inventories, and corporate profitability. For alumina and cast aluminum alloy, there were also corresponding price and trading data changes [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: Similar to the copper and lead sections, including employment data and Fed - related news [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all have a trend intensity of 0 [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 114,840, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,365. There were changes in trading volume, positions, price spreads, and industry - related data [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian forestry authorities took over a nickel - mining area, China suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, Indonesia imposed sanctions on mining companies, and there were regulations on mining project approvals. Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on China, and Indonesia restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses [25][26][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [29].

关税竟然能降低通胀？ 旧金山联邦储备银行的一份研究报告得出了这个让所有经济学家都瞠目的结论。 研究人员翻遍了150年的数据，发现关税每提高4个 百分点，通货膨胀反而会下降2个百分点。 就在普通美国人为越来越贵的汉堡和咖啡埋单时，这份报告却给特朗普的关税政策送上了一记神助攻。 不过，这个看似反常识的结论背后藏着残酷的代价，通胀下降的同时，失业率会上升约1个百分点。 换句话说，通胀是被压住了，但代价可能是你的工作。 2025年5月的通胀数据出来时，所有人都松了口气。 消费者价格指数同比只涨了2.4%，比市场预期的要温和。 就连核心通胀也稳在2.8%，是2021年3月以来 的最低水平。 特朗普马上在社交平台上喊话，要求美联储降息一个百分点。 这份平静很快就被打破了。 不到一个月，6月的CPI数据就窜到了2.7%，创下当年2月以来的最大涨幅。 那些曾经认为通胀不足为虑的人开始紧张起来。 物价上涨的压力在超市货架上变得实实在在。 受对巴西征收50%关税的影响，咖啡价格在7月至8月间飙升了4%，创下14年来的最大月度涨幅。 西红柿也因 为对墨西哥征收17%的关税，在8月份涨价4%。 这是2025年的首次降息，但与其说是主 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs Asset Management's 2026 investment outlook report indicates a divergence in central bank policies across major markets, influenced by varying economic conditions [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Central Bank Policies - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice by 2026 due to a weak labor market [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future [1] - The Bank of England may resume rate cuts in December, influenced by improving inflation, a relatively weak labor market, and potential tax increases [1] - Japan's high inflation and strong growth may lead to an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, further supported by recent political changes and a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy [1]

贵金属日报 | 2025-11-18 12月降息路径仍不确定 贵金属价格回调 市场分析 美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，他认为就业面临的下行风险有所上升，而通胀的上行风险则可能最近略有下降，释放 偏鸽信号；不过他还表示，随着利率接近中性水平，决策者需要更加谨慎；而美联储理事沃勒重申，他认为美联 储应该在12月会议上再次降息，理由是美国劳动力市场疲软以及货币政策在伤害中低收入消费者。美国白宫国家 经济委员会主任哈塞特则指出，就业市场出现了"混合信号"，暗示劳动力市场可能正在放缓；同时实际工资上涨， 而且这一趋势将继续下去。 贵金属ETF持仓跟踪： 贵金属ETF方面，昨日黄金ETF持仓为1,044.00吨，较前一交易日持平。白银ETF持仓为15,218吨，较前一交易日增 加45吨。 贵金属套利跟踪： 期现价差：2025-11-17，国内溢价方面，昨日黄金国内溢价为21.65元/克，白银国内溢价为-564.90元/千克。金银比 价：昨日上期所金银主力合约价格比约为77.89，较前一交易日变动1.07%，外盘金银比价为80.01，较上一交易日 变化1.79%。 基本面： 期货行情与成交量： 2025-11-17，沪金主力合约 ...

2025.11. 18 本文字数：2322，阅读时长大约4分钟 截至第一财经记者发稿时，10月非农就业数据和消费者价格指数（CPI）的发布时间尚未确认。原定 于11月13日发布的10月CPI数据因数据收集问题受阻。与此同时，美国总统特朗普的高级经济顾问 之一哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）表示，原定于11月7日发布的10月非农仍会发布，但报告中将不包含 失业率数据。 美联储官员的最新表态让经济数据的表现更加微妙。过去两周，多位美联储官员发表鹰派言论，呼吁 暂停降息，对物价的担忧重新盖过了就业市场。例如，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德上周表示，通胀仍居 高不下，警告额外的降息可能会加剧物价压力，但劳动力市场基本处于平衡状态。 本周美联储将发布最新会议纪要，联邦公开市场委员会FOMC内部讨论细节无疑会成为焦点。货币 市场定价显示，交易员预计美联储12月降息25个基点的概率在50%左右摇摆不定。 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 本周美股动荡开局，投资者对人工智能相关交易的疑虑持续，与此同时，因美国史上最长政府停摆而 延迟发布的大批经济数据将逐步亮相，随着美联储12月会议的临近，指标表现对货币政策走向影响 的潜在扰动也在引发 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-11-18 12⽉降息概率延续⾛低，贵⾦属调整 周⼀贵⾦属价格延续调整，随着美联储发⾔继续转鹰，12⽉降息概率进⼀ 步⾛低，同时⽩银租赁利率掉头回落，现货紧张的情绪缓解，⾦银同步维 持调整格局。短期市场预计进⼊预期抢跑后的价格回归阶段，贵⾦属降波 调整持续，关注本周美国GDP及⾮农数据披露。 重点资讯： 1）随着美国政府"停摆"结束，各州正在重新启动"补充营养援助 计划"（SNAP）救济金的发放工作，但与此同时，"大而美"税收与 支出法案对SNAP体系的全面收紧也正式生效。国会预算办公室预计， 新规将使全美约30万人最终失去SNAP资格。 2）日本经济财政政策会议会议纪要显示，日本央行行长植田和男表 示，日本央行正在追求一个能确保平稳着陆的利率水平；潜在通胀率 仍低于目标水平，因此将维持宽松的货币政策立场；从以稳定方式实 现2%通胀目标的角度来看，长期维持过于宽松的货币政策存在风险。 3）美国11月纽约联储制造业指数为18.7，为2024年11月以来新高， 预期5.8，前值10.7；就业指数为6.6，前值6.2；新订单指数 ...

Group 1 - The direct impact of interest rate cuts on gold prices is highlighted [2] - Interest rate cuts indirectly affect companies like Oracle and CoreWeave, which rely on financing to sustain operations [3] - The current financing cost has reached 8.3%, indicating a pressing need for interest rate cuts to support continued growth [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each commodity, considering factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical risks. Summary by Commodity Category Base Metals - **Copper**: Market showed weak oscillations. Supply tightness persisted, with high scrap premium. Recommended waiting for clearer direction before trading [1]. - **Aluminum**: Prices declined slightly. Supply increased, while demand rose marginally. Short - term trend was expected to be oscillatory [1]. - **Alumina**: Prices dropped slightly. Some producers cut production, while demand remained high. Short - term prices were expected to be weak [1]. - **Lead**: Prices decreased. Supply was constrained by raw materials, and demand was affected by high prices. Recommended waiting and watching [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose. Supply decreased, and demand was supported. Organic silicon planned to cut production. Recommended waiting and watching [1][2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices increased. Demand was strong in the short - term, but weak in the long - term. Recommended low - level long positions with caution [2]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. Recommended waiting and watching [2]. - **Tin**: Market showed weak oscillations. Supply was tight, and demand was stable. Recommended waiting and watching [2]. Black Industries - **Rebar**: Prices increased. Inventory decreased, and supply and demand were weak. Recommended holding short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices increased. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Recommended short - selling iron ore 2605 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices decreased. Supply and demand were weak. Recommended short - selling coking coal 2605 [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean prices were strong. Global supply was tightening, and demand was good. Domestic market was relatively strong [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated. Supply was delayed, and short - term demand was strong. Long - term prices were expected to decline [5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil prices increased. Supply was high in the short - term and expected to decrease later. Recommended anti - spread trading [6]. - **Sugar**: Prices decreased. International supply was tight, and domestic supply was expected to increase. Recommended short - selling futures and options [6]. - **Cotton**: Prices oscillated. US production increased, and domestic demand was weak. Recommended waiting and watching [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. Recommended waiting and watching [6]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices were weak. Supply was abundant, and demand was expected to increase seasonally. Prices were expected to be strong in the short - term [6]. - **Apples**: Prices were stable. Supply was affected by bad weather, and inventory was low. Recommended waiting and watching [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply pressure eased, and demand weakened. Short - term oscillations were expected, and long - term short positions were recommended [7]. - **PVC**: Prices were flat. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Recommended anti - spread trading [7]. - **PTA**: PX prices were high, and PTA supply pressure was large. Recommended taking profits on PX long positions and short - selling PTA processing fees [7]. - **Rubber**: Prices increased slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and inventory was accumulating. Recommended an oscillatory trading strategy [7]. - **Glass**: Prices decreased. Supply was stable, and demand was weak. Recommended anti - spread trading [8]. - **PP**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Short - term oscillations were expected, and long - term short positions were recommended [8]. - **MEG**: Prices oscillated. Supply pressure was large, and demand was in the off - season. Recommended short - selling above a certain level [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices oscillated. Supply and demand were bearish, but geopolitical risks were high. Short - term oscillations were expected, and short positions were recommended if supply reduction was less than expected [8]. - **Styrene**: Prices oscillated. Supply and demand were improving in the short - term but weak in the long - term. Recommended short - term oscillations with limited upside [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices increased slightly. Supply was stable, and demand was balanced. Recommended waiting and watching [9]. - **Urea**: Prices increased. Supply was sufficient, and demand was in the off - season. Short - term oscillations were expected [9].