12月30日公布的美联储12月会议纪要显示，政策制定者们在通胀和失业哪一个对美国经济构成更大风险的问题上 存在显著分歧。 三周前，美联储如期迎来年内第三次降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%的区间。12名决策者中仅 3人投下了反对票。 美联储主席鲍威尔随后表示，美联储已经将利率下调到足以防范劳动力市场出现更严重恶化的水平，但又能够继 续对通胀形成压制。 最新会议纪要指出，多数官员认为劳动力市场风险仍偏下行，同时又普遍认为通胀风险偏上行。他们还认为，若 新增数据提供有力支持，如通胀如预期那样逐步下降，则未来可能适合进一步降息。 一些与会者还指出，通胀上升有可能变得根深蒂固，在通胀读数仍然偏高的背景下进一步下调政策利率可能被误 解为政策制定者对2%通胀目标的承诺有所减弱。 投资者关注的焦点很快已转向后续政策路径。点阵图显示，政策制定者仍预计明年降息一次，预计到明年年底通 胀率将放缓至2.4%左右。 据CME"美联储观察"最新统计：美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为14.9%，维持利率不变的概率为85.1%。到 明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为45.2%，维持利率不变的概率为48.3%，累计 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - **Policy Impact**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - **Demand - side**: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - **Short - term Drivers**: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - **Supply and Demand in January**: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - **Zinc**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - **Lead**: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA**: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - **Rubber**: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is falling from a high level [78]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - **Caustic soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - **Paper pulp**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - **Urea**: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [116]. - **LPG**: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - **Fuel oil**: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - **Offset - printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - **Pure benzene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - **Palm oil**: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - **Soybean oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - **Soybean meal**: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - **Soybean**: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [171]. - **Cotton**: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - **Eggs**: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - **Live pigs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - **Peanuts**: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].

【环球网财经综合报道】据美联储最新公布的12月9日至10日会议纪要显示，FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，但官员们 分歧严重。 《纽约邮报》发文称，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰诺夫投票支持更大幅度的半个百分点降息，而芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦· 古尔斯比和堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密特投票反对降息，支持维持利率不变。19名投票者中，有6人建议基准利率到 2025年底应达到3.75%至4%。 报道还提到，美国最新公布GDP数据显示，美国经济实际年增长率达到4.3%，为两年来最快，但通胀仍然是个问题； 大多数联储官员希望，只要通胀继续降温，未来还将有更多降息。 美联储纪要也显示，如果通胀如预期般逐步下降，大多数官员认为进一步降息是合适的。委员们一致认为，将根据需 要开始购买短期国债，以持续保持充足的准备金供应，并同意取消对常备回购操作的总额限制。 受上述消息影响，美国三大股指小幅收跌，道指跌0.2%报48367.06点，标普500指数跌0.14%报6896.24点，纳指跌 0.24%报23419.08点。 热门股方面，IBM跌超1%，高盛集团跌近1%，领跌道指；万得美国科技七巨头指数跌0.07%，特斯拉跌超1%，脸书 涨逾1%。 ...

美联储会议纪要显示，多数与会者认为如果通胀随时间推移如预期般下降，进一步降息可能是合适的 [10]，但多位与会者指出高通胀有可能变得根深蒂固，并暗示进一步降息可能会被误解为美联储对2%通 胀目标缺乏决心[11]。 二、能源与航运期货 美国至12月26日当周API原油库存录得增加174.7万桶，预期为减少230万桶，前值为增加239.1万桶[9]。 三、宏观与市场影响 来源：喜娜AI 一、贵金属期货 纽约期银价格日内波动剧烈，先突破77美元/盎司，日内涨9.28%[1]，随后进一步突破78美元/盎司，日 内涨幅扩大至10.70%[2]；但盘中一度回落，失守77美元/盎司，日内跌2.35%[3]，最终失守75美元/盎 司，日内跌幅达4.07%[4]。 现货白银同步呈现大幅震荡，先后突破77美元/盎司（日内涨0.17%）[5]、78美元/盎司（日内涨8.17%） [6]，日内涨幅一度达8%，现报77.88美元/盎司[7]，但随后失守75美元/盎司，日内跌1.65%[8]。 尽管如此，交易员维持对美联储2026年内两次降息的押注，政策纪要未能改变市场预期[12]。 此外，美联储一项调查显示，受访者预计未来12个月央行 ...

一、国际新闻 国际贵金属市场波动显著，纽约期银价格在日内经历剧烈震荡，先后突破77美元/盎司和78美元/盎司关 口，日内涨幅一度达到10.70%，随后回落并失守75美元/盎司，日内跌幅达4.07%[1][2][3]。 现货白银同步呈现宽幅震荡，日内涨幅最高达8.17%并突破78美元/盎司，最终失守75美元/盎司，日内 跌1.65%[4][5][6][7]。 美国金融市场方面，周二美股三大指数小幅收跌，道指跌0.20%，纳指跌0.24%，标普500指数跌 0.14%；大型科技股涨跌分化，Meta、英特尔涨超1%，特斯拉跌超1%[8]。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.18%，成分股中金生游乐跌12.93%，1药网跌8.04%，而百度、蔚来等个股 在盘中曾推动指数涨超1%[9][10]。 来源：喜娜AI 地缘政治与贸易政策方面，美国政府已颁发许可证，批准三星和SK海力士2026年向中国出口芯片制造 设备，此前美国于8月撤销相关豁免政策，此次为暂时松绑[20]。 印度宣布对非合金钢和合金钢扁平材征收11%-12%的保障措施关税，有效期至2028年4月20日[21]。 二、国内新闻 中国企业融资与市场动态方面，MiniM ...

智通财经12月31日讯（编辑 史正丞）昨夜今晨， 随着美股市场在意兴阑珊中草草收盘，2025年进入了 最后一天。事实上，除了金属市场还在热烈波动外，大部分资产已经进入"等放假"的状态。 在欧洲、日韩等多个市场已经结束全年交易的背景下，衡量全球股市的最广泛指标MSCI全球指数年内 保持了近21%的涨幅，接近创出2019年后的最大年度涨幅。 像迷因股一样剧烈波动的白银也在周二找回状态，Comex白银单日大涨7.88%，现货白银也涨超5%。伦 铜、伦镍也在供需关系推动下强劲走高。 其他消息 【美联储会议纪要显示内部分歧显著】 美联储公布的12月议息会议纪要显示，官员们对后续降息路径的分歧显著。尽管大部分与会者都支持下 一步继续降息，但有"一些与会者"表示，在12月降息后，可能适合在一段时间内维持目标区间不变。 【印度称其GDP已超日本 跃居世界第四】 印度新闻信息局29日发布的年终经济评估报告显示，印度国内生产总值（GDP）当前已超过日本，成为 世界第四大经济体，有望三年内赶超德国。据悉，这一报告仅为初步估计，官方最终要以2026年发布的 年度GDP核算数据为准。 【泽连斯基否认会谈破裂：与美国对话每天都在继续】 ...

Market Performance - On December 30, US stock indices closed slightly lower, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 down by 0.20%, 0.24%, and 0.14% respectively [3] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with META, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet rising, while Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla declined [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.27%, with notable gains in companies like EHang and Baidu, while others like Alibaba and Bilibili experienced slight declines [3] Commodity Prices - Spot gold prices increased slightly by 0.19%, closing at $4340.128 per ounce, while spot silver surged by 5.67% [5] - International oil prices saw a minor decline, with both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI experiencing slight drops [6] Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting indicated increasing internal divisions regarding interest rate decisions, with officials split on inflation and labor market outlooks [4] - Most officials believe further rate cuts may be appropriate if inflation continues to decline, but there is hesitation regarding the timing and extent of such cuts [4] Copper Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that after reaching historical highs, copper prices may experience a temporary pullback, but long-term demand from sectors like power infrastructure and AI will limit downside potential [7] - The forecast for LME copper prices is expected to range between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton in the near term, with a long-term outlook suggesting prices could rise to $15,000 per ton by 2035 [7]

【贵金属】现货黄金涨0.17%，报4338.83美元；现货白银涨0.05%，报76.257美元。 【原油】纽约商品交易所2026年2月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌13美分，收于每桶57.95美元，跌幅为 0.22%；2月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌2美分，收于每桶61.92美元，跌幅为0.03%。 （原标题：隔夜美股 | 三大指数收跌 标普500指数连跌三日 特斯拉(TSLA.US)跌超1%） 智通财经APP获悉，周二，三大指数收跌，标普500指数连续第三个交易日下滑。比特币再次尝试冲破9 万关口失败。最新公布的美联储12月货币政策会议纪要显示，多数官员认为，如果通胀如预期所料随时 间推移而回落，进一步降息是合适之举。不过，也有一些官员明确表示，他们认为在12月会议之后，利 率应当"在一段时间内"维持不变。 【美股】截至收盘，道指跌94.87点，跌幅为0.20%，报48367.06点；纳指跌55.27点，跌幅为0.24%，报 23419.08点；标普500指数跌9.50点，跌幅为0.14%，报6896.24点。特斯拉(TSLA.US)跌超1%，英特尔 (INTC.US)涨1.7%，英伟达(NVDA.US)跌 ...

能源和通信板块上涨。非必需消费品、金融和工业板块跌幅居前。 "分析师持续上调对2026年企业盈利的预测，原因在于低估了企业的盈利能力，"Seaport Global Holdings 首席股票策略师Jonathan Golub在报告中写道。他认为，2025年的回报"几乎完全由基本面驱动，而非投 机过度"。 标普500指数在清淡交投中收盘微跌，大型科技股走势分化。 纳斯达克100指数和美股科技七巨头指数同样小幅走低。 周二公布的美联储12月会议纪要显示，多数官员认为，如果通胀如预期所料随时间推移而回落，进一步 降息是合适之举。 纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.2%，报23419.08点； 纳斯达克100指数下跌0.3%，报25462.56点； 罗素2000指数下跌0.8%，报2500.586点。 责任编辑：李桐 标普500指数在清淡交投中收盘微跌，大型科技股走势分化。 特斯拉股价下跌1.1%，此前该公司官网罕见发布悲观的分析师交付量预期。 Meta股价上涨1.1%，这家科技巨头已同意收购总部位于新加坡的初创企业Manus。 华纳兄弟探索股价上涨0.5%，有报道称该公司计划下周拒绝Paramount的收购提议。 截至收盘 ...

彭博美元指数随长期美债收益率小幅走高，G-10货币在年末清淡交投中窄幅波动。 彭博美元即期指数上涨不到0.1%，扭转了早前在亚洲和伦敦交易时段的跌势。 该指数今年以来下跌约8%，迈向2017年以来最大年度跌幅。 丰业银行首席外汇策略师Shaun Osborne在报告中写道："若进一步走强，目标将指向2023年初的水平， 并为日元、韩元等区域内货币的更广泛走强铺平道路"。 美联储12月会议纪要显示，多数官员认为，如果通胀如预期所料随时间推移而回落，进一步降息是合适 之举。 欧元/美元跌0.2%至1.1750。 瑞典央行最新一次政策会议纪要显示，官员们似乎确信，未来一年维持借贷成本不变将有助于支撑经济 复苏，并使通胀稳定在接近2%目标水平附近。 英镑兑美元的跌势在纽约交易时段延续。英镑/美元跌0.3%，至1.3468。 美元/日元涨0.2%，至156.45；澳元/美元涨不到0.1%，至0.6697，在G-10货币兑美元中跑赢；美元/加元 持稳在1.3696。 责任编辑：李桐 DTCC数据显示，大额期权到期价位包括1.1750（22.8亿欧元）和1.1800（6.47亿欧元）。 欧元/瑞典克朗在涨跌之间波动，稳定在 ...