The U.S. economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the third quarter, according to the Commerce Department's estimate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday released its final reading of third-quarter GDP, which showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% in the three-month period including July, August and September. That figure topped the expectations of economists polled by LSEG, who had estimated 3.3% GDP growth in the third quarter. It was also the fastest growth rate in two ...

"我认为，他们（法院）很有可能会在某种程度上限制这些关税。" 2026年初，资本市场因特朗普政府掀起的"夺取格陵兰岛"事件遭遇首只"黑天鹅"。 当地时间1月21日，事件再次反转。美国总统特朗普称，暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛 的欧洲8国加征关税。 格陵兰岛问题会成为新一轮贸易战的催化剂吗？在新加坡国立大学东亚研究所的研讨会上，奥巴马政府 时期总统首席经济学家和白宫经济顾问委员会主席、哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院教授福尔曼（Jason Furman）在回答第一财经记者提问时表示，在（该事件发生之前）的一周前，他大致认为，到2026年 底，美国的关税水平很可能会比开始时低。 而对于"特朗普总统是否总会退缩（TACO）"这一问题，他表示："总的来说，特朗普总统取消威胁、增 加关税豁免的案例比收紧关税的案例要多。" 如何看待2026年美国关税前景 福尔曼解释道，关税在政治上相对不受欢迎。"目前美国政治辩论的核心经济问题是价格承受能力，也 就是物价水平，而关税显然会对此产生影响。" 新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长席睿德（Alfred Schipke）和福尔曼等人共同撰写的最新一期《政策评 论》报告也显示，美国通胀的 ...

（文章来源：新华社） 数据显示，韩国2025年第四季度实际GDP出现负增长，环比下降0.3%。韩国银行表示，这主要源于第 三季度高增长的基数效应以及建筑投资低迷等因素。韩联社报道，该数据是三年间韩国经济季度环比增 幅最低水平。 数据还显示，2025年韩国服务业增长较快，制造业增长放缓，建筑业降幅扩大。从支出分类来看，民间 消费及政府支出扩大，出口保持增长，建筑业投资显著下降。 新华社首尔1月22日电韩国中央银行韩国银行22日公布的数据显示，韩国2025年实际国内生产总值 （GDP）增长1.0%。 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0%, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% year-on-year [4][14] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7%, while fixed asset investment is forecasted to decline by 3.8%, particularly in real estate development, which is expected to drop by 17.2% [4][14] - By the end of 2025, China's population is estimated to be 1.40489 billion, with a net decrease of 3.39 million people due to 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths [4][14] Steel Production and Consumption - In 2025, China's crude steel production is expected to be 96.081 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, while steel output is projected to increase by 3.1% to 144.612 million tons [4][14] - The total steel exports for 2025 are anticipated to reach 11.9019 million tons, marking a 7.5% increase and setting a historical record [4][14] Market Dynamics - As of January 21, 2025, the national main port iron ore transactions were 812,000 tons, a decrease of 30.3% compared to the previous period, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 76,300 tons, down by 2.2% [4][14] - The capacity utilization rate of iron-making furnaces in 247 steel mills was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points week-on-week, while the profit rate for steel mills increased by 2.17 percentage points to 39.83% [5][15] Steel Inventory and Demand - The supply of five major steel products was 8.1921 million tons, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.62 million tons, while total inventory decreased by 0.6% to 12.4701 million tons [5][15] - The apparent consumption of steel was 8.2612 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.7% [5][15] Specific Steel Products Analysis - Rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1.903 million tons, with total inventory slightly down by 0.04 million tons to 4.3807 million tons, while demand showed a recovery of 0.1528 million tons [6][16] - Hot-rolled steel production increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 million tons, with inventory decreasing by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 million tons, indicating a cautious market outlook among traders [7][17] Price Strategy - The short-term price range for rebar is expected to be between 3,100 and 3,200 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled steel is projected to range from 3,250 to 3,350 yuan per ton [8][18]

每经AI快讯，1月22日消息，韩国第四季度GDP环比-0.3%，预估为0.2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China has shown a zero increase over the past 15 years, despite a significant GDP growth of 250% during the same period, indicating a persistent weakness in producer prices and underlying demand issues [3][4][41]. Group 1: PPI Trends and Historical Context - The PPI has been in a negative growth phase since October 2021, marking 39 consecutive months of year-on-year decline by December 2025 [1]. - From 2012 to 2025, there were 111 months of negative PPI, indicating that two-thirds of this period experienced deflation in producer prices [1][4]. - The PPI index, set at 100 in December 2010, remained unchanged at 100 by December 2025, reflecting no price increase over 15 years [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Growth vs. PPI - China's GDP grew from less than 40 trillion yuan in 2010 to over 140 trillion yuan by 2025, a 2.5 times increase, while the broad money supply (M2) increased 3.68 times during the same period [4]. - Despite significant economic growth, the PPI's lack of increase raises questions about the underlying demand and pricing power within the economy [4][41]. Group 3: Factors Influencing PPI - The PPI's long-term decline is attributed to weak demand, particularly after the peak of the real estate market in 2021, which has affected both upstream and downstream price transmission [39][41]. - The relationship between real estate investment and PPI indicates that a downturn in real estate correlates with a decline in producer prices, as seen in historical data [34][41]. - The inability of upstream price changes to effectively transmit to downstream prices is exacerbated by high competition in the downstream sectors and insufficient demand [20][39]. Group 4: External Influences and Export Dynamics - Export dynamics play a crucial role in influencing midstream product prices, with a significant portion of manufacturing exports being affected by global demand fluctuations [24][26]. - The export price index has seen a notable decline, indicating that reliance on price competition to maintain export volumes may not be sustainable [26][28]. - The overall weak demand in the domestic market, particularly in the context of real estate and consumer confidence, has further constrained PPI recovery [28][39]. Group 5: Recommendations for Economic Policy - To address the persistent weakness in PPI, it is essential to adjust the supply-demand relationship by expanding effective demand, particularly through increasing the income of middle and low-income groups [41][49]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is suggested as a means to support consumer spending and alleviate overcapacity issues in various industries [41][49]. - The focus should shift towards enhancing consumer income through government policies, which may involve restructuring fiscal spending to prioritize direct transfers to households [41][49].

单位：% 2025/12 2025/09 2025/06 单位：% 2025/12 2025/11 2025/10 GDP当季同比 4.50 4.80 5.20 制造业累计同比 0.60 1.90 2.70 GDP环比 1.20 1.10 1.00 基建累计同比 -1.48 0.13 1.51 GDP累计同比 5.00 5.20 5.30 房地产累计同比 -17.20 -15.90 -14.70 2025/12 2025/11 2025/10 商品房销售面积累计 -8.70 -7.80 -6.80 工业增加值当月同比 5.20 4.80 4.90 商品房销售面积当月 -16.58 -17.93 -19.60 工业增加值累计同比 5.90 6.00 6.10 房屋新开工面积当月 -19.30 -27.73 -29.25 工业增加值环比 0.49 0.44 0.17 房屋施工面积当月 -47.14 -41.59 -7.10 采矿业当月 5.40 6.30 17.50 房屋竣工面积当月 -18.36 -25.40 -27.95 制造业当月 5.70 4.60 39.50 地产开发资金来源当月 -28.09 -32. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically analyzing Q4 GDP, industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales data for December 2025. Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Growth**: Real GDP growth moderated to **4.5% year-on-year (yoy)** in Q4 from **4.8% yoy** in Q3, primarily due to a high base effect. However, there was a marginal acceleration in sequential terms, with growth increasing to **1.2% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) seasonally adjusted non-annualized** in Q4 from **1.1% qoq** in Q3 [1][2] - **Industrial Production (IP)**: IP growth rose modestly to **5.2% yoy** in December from **4.8% yoy** in November, slightly beating consensus forecasts. This suggests an improvement in manufacturing sector momentum, although auto output growth slowed further and steel output remained subdued [1][6] - **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: FAI growth declined significantly to **-13.0% yoy** in December from **-10.7% yoy** in November, marking the first full-year contraction since 1990 at **-3.8% yoy** for the year. The decline is attributed to statistical corrections rather than solely fundamental factors [1][7] - **Retail Sales**: Retail sales growth moderated to **0.9% yoy** in December from **1.3% yoy** in November, with both goods sales and restaurant sales revenue slowing. Auto and home appliance sales remained weak due to funding shortages and diminishing effectiveness of consumer goods trade-in programs [1][8] - **Services Sector Performance**: The services industry output index grew by **5.0% yoy** in December, up from **4.2% yoy** in November, indicating that services consumption growth continued to outperform goods consumption growth [1][8] Additional Important Information - **Unemployment Rates**: Nationwide unemployment rates remained stable at **5.1%** in December, unchanged from November, indicating a lack of significant labor market improvement [9] - **Economic Divergence**: The data reflects a continued divergence in the economy, characterized by strong exports contrasted with weak domestic demand, highlighting potential areas of concern for future economic stability [1] - **Statistical Adjustments**: The report notes that recent declines in FAI may be influenced by statistical corrections from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which have adjusted previously over-reported data [1] This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call regarding the Chinese economy, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and potential investment implications.

Economic Performance - Q4 2025 GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year, aligning with consensus expectations[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate difference narrowed to -0.7%, indicating a mild recovery in price levels[3] - The annual GDP growth target of 5.0% was successfully achieved for 2025[3] Income and Consumption - Disposable income growth slightly declined to 5.0% in Q4 2025, with a decrease in operational net income growth[4] - The consumption rate for households fell to 72.7%, marking a historically low level[4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment showed weakness, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 3.8% in December 2025[14] - Infrastructure investment dropped significantly, with broad infrastructure down 16.0% year-on-year in December[5] - Real estate investment saw a sharp decline of 17.2% year-on-year, with December's monthly decline reaching 35.8%[5] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales (social zero) fell by 0.3% year-on-year to 3.7%, with a monthly decline of 0.4% to 0.9%[6] - Service retail continued to outperform goods retail, with the gap expanding to 1.5% in December[6] Future Outlook - Economic performance in December showed signs of marginal improvement, with expectations for Q1 2026 GDP growth to improve due to early policy implementations[7] - Risks include potential policy changes and unexpected economic downturns in the U.S.[8]

Weather - The weather forecast indicates cloudy conditions with occasional sunshine across the province, with light snow expected in parts of northern Jilin and western Yanbian. The highest temperatures will range from -16 to -13°C, while the lowest will drop to -32°C in Liaoyuan and Baishan, and -27 to -21°C in other areas [1]. Events and Activities - The "Rural Spokesperson - Star Farmer Development Co-Creation Camp (Jilin Station)" and "Jizhao" agricultural product matching event will be held in Changchun from January 19 to 20, organized by the Jilin Provincial Agricultural and Rural Affairs Department and ByteDance [3]. - The "2026 Changchun 'Return Home and Settle Down' Real Estate Special Plan" was officially launched on January 19, as part of a cross-regional New Year real estate exhibition and sales event [3]. - The "Ice and Snow Dream · Ice on the Road" event took place in Changchun Park, attracting many ice and snow sports enthusiasts [3]. - The "2026 Jilin Province Youth Wind Music Art Carnival Concert" was held, featuring over 600 young musicians from more than 10 schools [3]. - The "Mountain Sea Wonderful Night Winter City" night event at Changchun Century City will only be open on weekends from January 19 to February 9 due to weather conditions [2]. Construction and Development - The Changchun Huaren Center project has successfully passed construction acceptance, marking its transition to the full delivery phase [4]. - The first phase of the new construction project at Changchun Normal University has also passed construction acceptance, which includes 12 buildings and various facilities to improve educational conditions [4]. Sports and Recreation - The Jilin Long White Mountain Enduri basketball team returned to their home court but lost to the Shandong High-Speed team with a score of 68 to 77 in the CBA regular season [6]. - The "2026 Fifth 'Stiga · Hantang Cup' National Youth Table Tennis Open" was held in Changchun, attracting over 600 participants, including many from national youth teams [6]. - The strawberry picking season has begun in Huinan County, attracting families and leisure seekers [6]. Cultural and Educational Initiatives - The Jilin Provincial Preventive Medicine Association held a conference to discuss the development of sports and health in the province, gathering experts from various fields [5]. - The Ministry of Education and six other departments issued a document to promote the improvement of national language and cultural literacy, emphasizing the importance of Mandarin and standardized Chinese character education in schools [10].