每经AI快讯，12月12日消息，英国10月GDP环比下降0.1%，预估为增长0.1%。 ...

今日周五(12月12日)亚盘时段，白银td目前交投于14731一线上方，今日开盘于14482元/千克，截至发 稿，白银td暂报14885元/千克，上涨2.85%，最高触及15010元/千克，最低下探14464元/千克，目前来 看，白银td盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 因出口增加，美国9月贸易逆差意外收窄，降至2020年年中以来最小水平。 美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，商品和服务贸易逆差较前月缩小近11%，至528亿美元，市场预期为 631亿美元。出口额增长3%，达到有记录以来第二高水平，主要受非货币黄金和药品制剂推动。 进口仅微增0.6%。今年因美国实施关税措施，贸易数据出现大幅月度波动，也导致GDP出现类似波 动。9月贸易数据将帮助经济学家进一步修正对第三季度GDP的估算。 另外根据市场调查显示的工具数据显示，目前市场认为下月维持利率不变的概率已升至约78%。与此同 时，市场对于区域局势缓和的讨论也引起部分投资者对传统避险需求的重新评估。 【最新白银td行情解析】 日图来看，已连续两日收阳，白银td开盘持续走涨，到达高点后小幅回落，价格处于正值区间，目前有 望再度拉升，布林带开口扩大显示上涨空间充足 ...

Trade and Geopolitical Factors - Trade deal timeline is uncertain, influenced by geopolitical developments more than bilateral trade issues [1][2] - A trade deal agreement would significantly boost Indian market sentiment by removing risk premium [4] - Trade uncertainties impact GDP projections, but domestic economy and exporter diversification mitigate negative effects [5] Economic Growth and Reforms - India's potential growth has likely increased due to decade-long structural reforms, including public infrastructure investment, digital infrastructure rollout, GST, and insolvency/bankruptcy code [8] - The economy has consistently outperformed expectations in the last five years post-COVID, suggesting potential for continued positive surprises in fiscal year 2026-2027 [11] - RBI estimates India's growth at 73% for fiscal year 2025-2026, and predicts around 67% for the next fiscal year [10] Consumption and Household Savings - Consumption is expected to strengthen, particularly in urban India, supported by GST reform and direct tax relief [12][14] - Rural consumption is performing well due to successive good monsoons and real wage/income growth [12][13] - India's household savings rate has increased from 49% of GDP in 2022-2023 to 6% of GDP, indicating improved household balance sheets [15] Rupee and Inflation - Weaker rupee improves the Indian trade balance on a net basis, offsetting import costs and benefiting exporters [17][18] - Rupee weakness reflects investor caution and is undervalued relative to India's economic fundamentals [20][22] - The rupee could be undervalued by 5% to 15% in real effective terms [24] - Lower inflation is seen as beneficial for the Indian economy, reflecting the impact of structural reforms on supply-side constraints [32] Aviation Industry - Recent disruptions in the aviation sector, such as flight cancellations, are expected to lead to better systems and resilience in the long run [38] - The long-term impact of aviation issues on Indian domestic and foreign tourism is not expected to be significant, given growing market and purchasing power [40]

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit in September significantly narrowed to $52.8 billion, the smallest since mid-2020, driven by a surge in exports [1][2] - Exports rose by 3% to reach the second-highest level on record, primarily due to substantial increases in non-monetary gold and pharmaceutical exports [1] - Imports experienced a modest growth of 0.6%, indicating a favorable trade balance that could support GDP growth in the third quarter [1][2] Trade Data Summary - The September trade deficit decreased by nearly 11% month-over-month, falling below market expectations of $63.1 billion [1] - Adjusted for inflation, the goods trade deficit narrowed to $79 billion, marking the lowest level in five years [1] - The export of consumer goods, excluding price factors, reached a historical high, showcasing strong demand [1] Import and Export Dynamics - Notably, non-monetary gold exports hit a record high, reversing previous concerns over tariff-induced import spikes [2] - There was a significant rebound in pharmaceutical imports, while capital equipment and automobile imports declined, alongside a general weakening in consumer goods imports such as mobile phones and appliances [1][2]

债券 2025 年 12 月 11 日 美联储那些事儿 美联储议息会议：政策利率处于"有利位置" 证券分析师 图表1 鲍威尔发布会表态要点 资料来源： FED ，平安证券研究所 9月以来的降息使当前利率整体处于中性的区间(within a broad range o f estimates o f neutral)和有利的位置 （well positioned t o wait too see how the economy evolved），可以等待观察经济的演变，美联储将谨慎评 估即将到来的数据。 在评估家庭调查数据时必须谨慎，因为劳动力市场数据收集方式可能存在一些问题，导致数据出现偏差， 不仅波动性更大，还会出现扭曲的情况；同时1 0月和1 1月部分数据可能未能收集齐全，美联储需要以谨慎 和怀疑的态度来审视这些数据。 不认为当前存在加息的预期。 就储备管理购买（reserve management purchase），因为4月15日是纳税日，居民和企业缴税可能导致准备金季节 性回落，所以未来几个月将保持较高的购债规模；此外，准备金规模需要跟随银行体系和经济规模增长，这可能 导致准备金需要每月增加200- ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in December, aligning with expectations, marking the third rate cut since September[2] - The Fed plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term bonds over the next 30 days to maintain adequate reserve supply[2] - The Fed's internal divisions regarding rate cuts have increased, with three voting members opposing the decision, the highest dissent since 2019[5] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The Fed significantly raised its GDP forecast for 2026 by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3%[3] - Unemployment rate projections for 2026 and 2027 remain at 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively, with slight adjustments made to future years[6] - The PCE inflation rate forecast for 2026 was lowered by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4%[4] Group 3: Future Rate Expectations - The Fed maintains expectations for two additional 25 basis point rate cuts in the coming year, with a target federal funds rate of 3%-3.25% by year-end[1] - Future rate adjustments will depend on economic data and evolving risks, indicating a cautious approach[4] - The potential for rate hikes in the second half of next year is limited, as the economic conditions may not warrant such actions[1]

So this has come up a couple of times today, but to be clear, do you believe that we're experiencing a positive productivity shock whether from AI or policy factors or whatever. Uh and how much of that is how much is that driving the higher GDP projection in the SCP. >> So yeah, I mean it uh [clears throat] I never thought I would see a time when we had, you know, five, six years of 2% productivity growth.This is this is higher, you know, this is definitely higher and it was it was before before it could be ...

CEO and chief strategist Daniel D. Martino Booth. First, your initial thoughts because this is a lot.These are a lot of changes. >> There there are a ton of changes and I I'm starting to feel like we're like it's a schizophrenic Federal Open Market Committee. I mean, they're swinging from pendulum to pendulum.Hawks are being doves. Doves are being I mean, it's it's just >> Yeah. Goulby set this out.Goulsby is always a dove. >> Goulsby I mean, the Chicago Fed is always the most dovish fed person and he's doi ...

The Federal Reserve reducing interest rates by an expected quarter point to a new range of 3.5% to 3.75%. There were three descents, the first time that's happened since September 2019. Two were against the cut, including Chicago Fed President Austin Goulby along with um Kansas City Fed President Jeff Smith.His second descent in a row. Also another disscent for a 50 basis point cut from new Fed governor on loan from the administration Steven Myron. To recap, the vote was nine for cutting a quarter, two agai ...

[music] What is economic data and why is it vital for investors. Economic data comes in many forms and it informs investors and economists on the state of the economy which has many facets from jobs data to housing data. There's consumer confidence data and inflation data and so much more.Altogether they paint a picture of how the US economy is doing and if we're in an economic expansion or economic contraction. Additionally, they often have an immediate impact on the market. If jobs data misses expectation ...