2025年初买的黄金，赚疯了！ 2025年无疑是黄金的大年，仅在前三个季度，国际黄金就已上演一场"史诗级"行情。根据Wind数据统计，伦敦现货黄金价格从2024年最后一个交易日的 2624.16美元/盎司，一路飙升至2025年9月16日盘中3702.93美元/盎司，涨幅超过40%。 如果有人在年初布局黄金并坚定持有，那轻松跑赢一些基金和理财产品则不成问题。 数据来源：Wind、统计截至：2025/9/17 这一轮黄金的强势上涨，可谓占尽"天时、地利、人和"。 年初特朗普就任美国总统后，市场对其政策不确定性的担忧迅速发酵，伦敦现货金价在1月突破2800美元/盎司、2月站上2900美元/盎司关口。随后，美国 债务问题与地缘政治风险轮番助推，黄金作为传统避险资产持续受到资金青睐。 然而，真正点燃金价行情的，是特朗普挑起的全球关税摩擦。进入4月，市场对贸易冲突的担忧达到高峰，国际金价单月实现"三级跳"，连续突破3300美 元/盎司、3400美元/盎司和3500美元/盎司三大整数关口，强势尽显。 随后的四个月，尽管中东地缘冲突等事件不时扰动，但由于前期涨势过大，金价进入高位震荡整固阶段。 图片来源：利得研究院 "靴子" ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations on September 23, with the index rising towards the end of the trading session. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3800 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index saw a slight decline. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.29%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.21%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 376 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Gold Market - International gold prices continued to rise, reaching historical highs. COMEX gold approached the 3800 USD mark, peaking at 3795.1 USD per ounce, while London gold surpassed 3750 USD, hitting a maximum of 3759.1 USD per ounce. Domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with the price of 24K gold jewelry rising from 1085 yuan per gram to 1098 yuan per gram for Chow Tai Fook and from 1090 yuan to 1100 yuan for Chow Sang Sang [2][8]. Banking Sector - The banking sector showed resilience, with several banks experiencing significant gains. Nanjing Bank rose nearly 5%, while Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Xiamen Bank increased by over 3%. Other banks such as Suzhou Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Qilu Bank also saw upward movement [4]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector led the market gains, with notable performances from companies like Changchuan Technology, which hit the daily limit, and Demingli, which achieved three consecutive trading limit increases. Other companies such as Zhangjiang Hi-Tech and Kaimete Gas also reached their daily limits towards the end of the trading session [5]. Automotive Sector - Dongfeng Motor and Dongfeng Technology experienced significant stock price increases, with Dongfeng Motor rising by 4.37% and Dongfeng Technology by 3.69%. This surge followed a meeting between Dongfeng's chairman and Huawei's founders, focusing on strengthening strategic cooperation and innovation in corporate governance [6]. Investment Strategy Insights - The market analysis indicates that e-commerce is currently crowded, while the internet sector remains relatively low. Innovative pharmaceuticals have seen a decline but are not at a low point. New consumption is hovering at a relatively low level, while banking and insurance sectors are at their lowest in a year. The suggested investment strategy is to focus on long-term potential while being cautious of high crowding in certain sectors [7]. Precious Metals Outlook - Analysts suggest that the long-term upward trend in gold prices remains intact due to factors such as de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases. Short-term market dynamics, including adjustments in non-farm payroll data and interest rate expectations, are expected to support gold price increases. Silver is also gaining attention as it transitions from an industrial role to a valuable asset, driven by both industrial demand and financial attributes [10][11].

Group 1 - International gold prices have reached a historical high, with spot gold surpassing $3750 per ounce and COMEX futures hitting $3795 per ounce [1][3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased accordingly, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook seeing prices rise to 1100 RMB per gram and 1098 RMB per gram respectively [1][2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to factors such as strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased risk of a U.S. government shutdown, and heightened geopolitical uncertainties [1][4] Group 2 - The sales of gold jewelry are experiencing a "volume decrease but price increase" trend, as high gold prices lead to lower total weight sold, but higher overall sales revenue [3] - A-share listed companies in the gold sector, such as Zhongjin Gold and Xiaocheng Technology, have seen significant stock price increases, indicating strong market interest [3] - Institutional research has focused on gold pricing, cost changes, and production targets for the second half of the year, reflecting heightened investor interest in the gold sector [3][4] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest that gold prices will maintain a high and strong oscillating pattern, with forecasts predicting an average price of $3800 per ounce by Q4 2025 and over $4000 by Q1 2026 [4] - Factors such as monetary policy easing, de-dollarization trends, and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets are expected to contribute to a significant turning point in the gold market [5]

近期，美联储在9月议息会议上宣布降息25个基点，由此开启了去年12月以来的首次降息，这无疑激发了资本市场的想象 力，后续货币宽松能否持续，美联储降息空间还有多大，是很多投资者关注的焦点。 据CME"美联储观察"显示，美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为10.2%，降息25个基点的概率为89.8%。美联储12月维持利率 不变概率为1.7%，累计降息25个基点的概率为23.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为75.3%。 上述数据清晰的反映出交易员对于降息周期的押注。对此，美联储内部却呈现明显的分歧，各方观点不一。 降息大门开启，美联储内部却吵翻了！ 此前"光速"进入美联储的新任理事、同时也是特朗普亲信的米兰，呼吁大幅降息以避免经济受损。 值得注意的是，下一任美联储主席的竞选也在进行之中。 当地时间9月22日，美国财长贝森特表示，本周晚些时候将再面试两名美联储主席候选人，下周末结束前将面试11名候选人 中的10名，将于下周开始缩小面试候选人的名单。 金价破纪录，华尔街机构忙着"撕报告" 身为"鸽派"的米兰认为，联邦基金利率适当水平大约在2%至2.5%，相比目前利率水平大幅下降达2%。在大幅降息之后， 其预计2026年和2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has reached a historic high, surpassing $3749.27 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 40%, driven by various economic and geopolitical factors [1][3][10]. Group 1: Price Surge - On September 23, the international gold price hit $3749.27 per ounce, marking a new record [3]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 40%, with a monthly increase exceeding 8%, surpassing the inflation-adjusted peak from 1980 [3][10]. - As of the report, spot gold prices have further risen to $3753 per ounce [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Price Increase - The primary drivers for the recent surge in gold prices include: - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which has weakened the dollar and strengthened gold [7]. - Escalating geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe haven [8]. - Central banks globally, including the People's Bank of China, have been increasing their gold reserves, contributing to a "de-dollarization" trend and enhancing trust in gold [9]. Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected, with potential resistance around $3740 per ounce, but a strong bullish momentum could push prices towards $3800 or even $4000 [12]. - Long-term trends suggest that if the Federal Reserve continues its rate cuts or geopolitical tensions escalate, gold prices may rise further. Conversely, if risks subside, a temporary decline could occur [12]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4000 per ounce by 2026, emphasizing the growing demand for gold amid rising global debt and concerns over the dollar's credibility [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial products and precious metals are recommended for long - position allocation on dips [3] Core Viewpoints - Domestic policy expectations are rising, and the government is trying to implement more proactive macro - policies to cope with the increased external pressure [1] - The inflation outlook in the United States is clearer, with the Fed cutting interest rates and the possibility of further cuts in the future. Different commodity sectors have different trends and investment opportunities [2] - Precious metals are expected to continue to strengthen due to the trends of de - dollarization and the interest - rate cut cycle [2][5] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, with features like "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption". External tariff pressure increased, and the government proposed stable - growth policies. The central bank maintained LPR and conducted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. There were also positive developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations [1] - The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing index has been shrinking for six consecutive months, with improved new orders and a falling price index. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and there are expectations of further cuts. The US Senate rejected short - term spending bills, and there is a risk of a government shutdown. The US promised to support Argentina, causing a sharp rise in Argentine dollar - denominated bonds [2] Commodity Sector Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors; precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is restricted by downstream demand, the non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints, the energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term, the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention, and agricultural products are affected by tariffs and inflation expectations [2] - Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to continue to strengthen despite the "sell - the - fact" situation after the Fed's interest - rate cut. On September 22, spot gold reached a new high of $3720 per ounce, up nearly 8% this month [2][5][6] Strategy - Recommend long - position allocation of industrial products and precious metals on dips in the commodity and stock index futures markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the surge in gold prices, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and central bank gold purchases, while also highlighting potential risks and investment strategies for ordinary investors. Group 1: Price Surge Drivers - Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: The Fed has cut rates by 125 basis points in 2025, leading to a 15% decline in the dollar index to 102.3, significantly reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [2][3] - Geopolitical Conflicts: Escalating tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war have increased demand for gold, with over 170 tons net inflow into gold ETFs in a single month [4] - Central Bank Purchases: In Q2 2025, global central banks bought 166 tons of gold, with China increasing its reserves to 74.02 million ounces over ten consecutive months [5][6] Group 2: Future Trends - Bullish Outlook: Technical analysis suggests that gold could reach $4,000, with major institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan raising their price targets [7] - Risk Awareness: The RSI indicator is at 78, indicating overbought conditions, with potential short-term pullbacks to the $3,600-$3,650 range [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Allocation Logic: It is recommended to allocate 5%-15% of investment portfolios to gold as a stabilizer against market volatility [9] - Tool Selection: Conservative investors may prefer physical gold or bank savings gold, while aggressive investors might consider gold ETFs or futures contracts [11][12] - Timing Strategy: Investors should look for buying opportunities around the $3,600 support level and consider event-driven strategies around Federal Reserve meetings and employment data releases [13][14]

【深度解析】全球格局暗战：中美博弈下的金融暗流与战略突围 亲爱的读者朋友，在您展开阅读前，诚挚邀请点击关注按钮。这不仅方便您参与后续互动讨论，更能第一时间获取我们团队基于权威信源（文末附详细参考 文献）制作的深度分析。当下世界正经历着比表面冲突更深刻的变革——让我们共同揭开这场没有硝烟的世界大战真相。 一、冰山下的角力场 当俄乌炮火、巴以冲突、朝韩对峙和伊以交火占据头条时，真正决定世界走向的，是中美在金融、科技与地缘政治三维棋盘上的无声博弈。想象两个巨人站 在全球经济版图两端：一方握着美元霸权的权杖，另一方举着产业升级的旗帜，他们的每个动作都在重塑着我们熟悉的世界秩序。 这绝非时间巧合，而是一套组合拳的起手式。美国先通过北约东扩激化俄乌矛盾，当欧洲资本如惊弓之鸟逃离时，华尔街亮出4.5%的存款利率——这就像 在全球金融市场竖起一块巨型磁铁。数据显示，2022年第三季度就有超过1.2万亿美元回流美国，而中国同期仅吸引外资约1800亿。 但这次收割遇到了硬骨头。当斯里兰卡、巴基斯坦等发展中国家陷入美元荒时，中国开出了以人民币结算的救命处方。就像在金融沙漠中突然出现绿洲，目 前已有28个国家与中国建立本币互换协议， ...

本波黄金价格上涨的因素有哪些?我认为有4个： 第一个是2020年疫情冲击下带来的全球低利率环境。全球各经济体，比如说美国、欧元区受到疫情的冲击影 响，他们的GDP增速受到了很大的打击，为了拯救经济，央行进行降息，开闸防水，这导致了很长时间内，全 球处于一个低利率的环境中，尽管后面美联储又加息，但加息的整个周期很短。而在9月17日美联储降息之后， 美联储再次进入降息的周期里面，这样一个低利率的环境对黄金是十分有利的。 第三个原因贸易战关税战背景下带来的整体金融避险，第四个原因则是地区性的冲突，比如说俄乌战争、巴以 冲突、伊以冲突带来的避险。这两个原因有相似之处，出发点都是美国政府对外的手段，不同的是一个是经济 手段，一个是外交战争手段。 | 沪金主力 | | | | | | | 下载APP添加自选 重要行情优先看 APP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 852.76 14.02 1.67% | | | | | | | ① 休市 2025-09-23 10:15:00 | | 今开: 847.50 | | | 昨结:838.74 | | ...

黄金数据库解析：重塑黄金研究框架 20250922 摘要 自 2022 年 8 月以来，报告持续看好黄金，并验证了两年前金价底部 2000 美元的判断，目前短期内难以再见此买点。即使金价创新高至 3,700 美元，仍维持推荐，基于多年市场研究和实战经验。 传统"强美元、弱黄金"观点不成立，1997 年以来两者相关性不足 1%。美元指数主要反映欧元区经济体货币强弱，金价本身已是衡量美元 强弱的重要指标。 黄金价格与美元关系可通过金本位和美元实际回报率（TIPS）解释。 2006-2022 年 TIPS 与金价呈现较强相关性，但不同时期相关性不同， 受市场认知和流动性影响。 TIPS 与黄金价格的离合关系受多种因素影响，如欧洲事件导致全球实际 利率变化，非美地区问题引发全球市场波动，需结合具体事件背景分析。 1997 年以来全样本数据显示 TIPS 与黄金价格相关性较低，因 TIPS 初 期市场认知不足、流动性较低，且受金融危机、地缘政治风险等因素影 响。 2003-2022 年 10 月全球黄金 ETF 规模与金价高度相关，但 2022 年 12 月以来相关性显著降低，表明市场机制变化，央行购金行为影响显著。 ...