行业报告 | 行业研究周报 通信 证券研究报告 AI 产业发展持续向好，海风和卫星通信展现积极进展 本周（04.21-04.25）行业动态： 垣信卫星与泰国国家电信达成战略合作 2025 年 4 月 24 日，上海垣信卫星与泰国国家电信正式签订战略合作框架协议，双 方将以深化商业航天及低轨卫星互联网业务合作为基础，携手推动泰国数字经济发 展。双方合作围绕卫星互联网与垂直行业的融合，探索新技术市场空间，通过市场 化运营实现互利共赢，共同开发低轨卫星新商业模式。 2GW 海上风电投资项目签约 近日，阿塞拜疆总统伊尔哈姆·阿利耶夫来华进行国事访问期间，中能建海外投资 有限公司副总经理与阿塞拜疆能源部副部长代表双方签署阿塞拜疆 2GW 海上风电 投资项目实施协议。本次签约的项目位于阿塞拜疆首都巴库东部里海海域，场址距 离陆地最近距离约 26 公里，场址面积约为 545 平方公里。 本周（04.21-04.25）投资观点： 近期进入公司年报业绩期，同时由于外部政治环境动荡扰动，市场波动较为剧烈， 整体情绪较为低落。但我们仍然看好 AI 行业作为年度投资主线，后续伴随着 DeepSeek R2/V4 等以及包括 Agen ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved stable performance in 2024, with revenue of 6.444 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.62%, and a net profit of 663 million yuan, up 33.8% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed revenue of 1.306 billion yuan, a 26.21% increase year-on-year [1][4] - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in offshore wind power and data center sectors, which are anticipated to contribute to incremental performance in the future [1][3] Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: Revenue reached 6.444 billion yuan, net profit was 663 million yuan, and the gross margin was 22.29% [1] - **2025 Q1 Financials**: Revenue was 1.306 billion yuan, net profit was 112 million yuan, with a gross margin of 21.78% [1] - **Revenue Growth**: The company expects revenue to grow to 8.615 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.7% [4] - **Profit Forecast**: Projected net profit for 2025 is 888 million yuan, reflecting a 34% year-on-year increase [4] Business Segment Analysis - **Box-type Substation**: Revenue of 4.239 billion yuan, up 22.60% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.13% [2] - **Transformers**: Revenue of 1.074 billion yuan, a significant increase of 56.12%, with a gross margin of 25.42% [2] - **Complete Switchgear**: Revenue of 674 million yuan, up 32.65%, with an improved gross margin of 18.06% [2] Strategic Developments - The company has made technological breakthroughs in offshore wind power, including the launch of a 66kV prefabricated intelligent offshore booster system, which has been successfully applied in major projects [2] - The company is expanding its presence in the data center market with the MyPower module, which has secured significant orders from leading internet companies [3] - The company is pursuing a global expansion strategy, focusing on high-margin overseas markets, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company has experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with revenue at 4.86 billion yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year, and net profit at 204 million yuan, down 74.3% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is undergoing a transformation, focusing on offshore wind power and marine engineering equipment manufacturing, while completing the orderly contraction and internal integration of its onshore equipment business [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 7.42 billion yuan, 8.61 billion yuan, and 9.81 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 760 million yuan, 1.06 billion yuan, and 1.30 billion yuan [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 19.53% and a net margin of 4.19%, both declining year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 23.48% and a net margin of 7.51%, with revenue of 926 million yuan, down 12.1% year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - Wind Tower Segment: Revenue of 1.67 billion yuan in 2024, down 47.98%, with a gross margin of 7.15% [2]. - Marine Engineering: Revenue of 429 million yuan in 2024, down 71.59%, with a gross margin of 3.08% [2]. - Blade Segment: Revenue of 1.25 billion yuan in 2024, down 20.59%, with a negative gross margin of -0.72% [2]. Future Outlook - The company aims to leverage its manufacturing synergies from its coastal bases in China and Germany to enhance its global capacity layout [3]. - The establishment of a zero-carbon industrial division headquarters in Wuhan is part of the company's strategic upgrade [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.58 RMB [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.158 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 346 million RMB, down 8.12% year-on-year. The fourth quarter revenue was 6.922 billion RMB, showing a decline both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The report highlights the company's strong position in the offshore wind sector, particularly in Europe, where policy support is expected to drive significant growth in installations. The company has a leading position in offshore wind and is well-positioned to benefit from high demand in this area [1][3]. - The company is expected to see a substantial increase in offshore wind shipments due to ongoing projects in key regions such as Guangdong and Jiangsu, with a strong order backlog anticipated to support revenue growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company experienced a revenue decline in 2024, with a forecasted recovery in subsequent years, projecting revenues of 38.101 billion RMB in 2025, 48.817 billion RMB in 2026, and 53.871 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 40.29%, 28.13%, and 10.35% respectively [5]. - The net profit is expected to rebound significantly, with projections of 2.206 billion RMB in 2025, 3.130 billion RMB in 2026, and 3.992 billion RMB in 2027, indicating growth rates of 537.32%, 41.88%, and 27.54% respectively [5]. Market Outlook - The report notes that the European offshore wind market is projected to add 11.8 GW of new installations by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.6% from 2025 to 2030. This growth is expected to benefit the company significantly [3]. - The government has emphasized the development of offshore wind power as a strategic industry, which is likely to enhance the company's prospects in deep-sea projects, supported by its advanced floating wind turbine technology [2]. Valuation - The report adjusts the company's profit forecasts downward due to anticipated changes in electricity pricing and investment returns, projecting net profits of 2.206 billion RMB for 2025, 3.130 billion RMB for 2026, and 3.992 billion RMB for 2027. The target price is set at 13.58 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14 times for 2025 [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the wind power equipment industry is "Positive" (first-time rating) [2] Core Viewpoints - The offshore wind industry is expected to enter a period of intensive construction, with sufficient project reserves ready to commence [7] - The trend towards high voltage and direct current in submarine cables is evident, benefiting leading cable manufacturers [7] - European offshore wind is anticipated to develop on a large scale, with domestic manufacturers likely to accelerate their overseas expansion due to capacity shortages [7] - Domestic offshore wind projects are expected to have a high degree of certainty in performance release once operational [7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The offshore wind sector has experienced a downturn for three consecutive years, with new installations dropping significantly from a peak of 16.9 GW in 2021 to 5.1 GW, 6.3 GW, and 4.0 GW in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [7] Project Developments - In Guangdong, several projects are moving into full construction, with 7 GW across 15 projects approved in 2024 [7] - Jiangsu has initiated three projects totaling 2.65 GW, with further projects expected to commence in 2025 [7] - Shanghai is progressing with preliminary work on a 4.3 GW offshore wind demonstration project [7] Market Trends - The adoption of higher voltage submarine cables is becoming crucial for cost reduction, with leading companies like Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and Hengtong Optic-Electric securing significant contracts [7] - European offshore wind capacity is projected to exceed 10 GW by 2028 and 20 GW by 2030, creating opportunities for domestic manufacturers to meet overseas demand [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Dongfang Cable, with additional attention on Zhongtian Technology, Daikin Heavy Industries, Haili Wind Power, Hengtong Optic-Electric, and Changlan Technology [7]

文 ｜ 华鹏伟 林劼 国内外海上风电景气度有望持续提升，从而带动产业链出货量增加。国内来看，2 0 2 5年国内新增海上风电的规模有望超过 1 2GW，同比增长有望翻倍，且随着深远海海上风电项目的启动，中长期稳定增长有望获得保障；海外来看，虽然欧洲新建海 风规模为2 . 6GW，同比下降3 0%，但2 0 2 4年欧洲风电核准数量为1 9 . 9GW，同比增长4 6 . 3%，为后续项目发展提供了充足的储 备，2 0 2 5 - 2 0 3 0年，欧洲海风有望迎来新的增长周期。国内外海上风电的发展将带动产业链出货量的增加，且很多企业也把海 上和海外的"两海"战略作为重点，我们建议关注风机、海缆、桩基、铸锻件等环节。 新增风电装机低于预期，多种因素可能影响海上风电装机，贸易壁垒可能对风电整机和零部件出口产生影响，原材料价格波 动。 ▍ 投资策略。 风电行业景气提升，国内外海上风电都有望迎来较快增长，且国内风电零部件已经实现了海外市场的拓展。在国内外海上风电 需求的带动下，对此产业链有所布局的公司也将因此受益。我们建议关注整机以及海缆、桩基、铸锻件等环节。 ▍ 开工项目多，国内海上风电有望迎来较快增长。 成本下降 ...

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·风电设备 大金重工（002487） 管桩出海厚积薄发，未来成长性确定 2025 年 04 月 20 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4325 | 3780 | 5727 | 7522 | 8933 | | 同比（%） | (15.30) | (12.61) | 51.52 | 31.34 | 18.76 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 425.16 | 473.88 | 852.62 | 1,211.19 | 1,542.78 | | 同比（%） | (5.58) | 11.46 | 79.92 | 42.06 | 27.38 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.74 | 1.34 | 1.90 | 2.42 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 40.49 | 36.32 | 20.19 | 14.21 | 11.16 | [Table_T ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company achieved strong profitability in 2024, with a sales gross margin reaching 29.83%, the highest level in nearly a decade, and a net profit margin of 12.54%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.59 percentage points and 2.71 percentage points respectively [1] - The European offshore wind auction capacity reached a historical high in 2024, with a total of 36.8GW, of which offshore wind accounted for over half, indicating a robust market for future orders [2] - The company is actively expanding its market presence beyond Europe into Japan, Southeast Asia, and Australia, with sufficient overseas orders supporting future growth [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 3.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%, while overseas revenue accounted for nearly 50% of the wind power equipment segment [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 474 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.46% [1] - The company expects revenues of 5.92 billion, 7.80 billion, and 9.28 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 857 million, 1.19 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan [9][11] Market Opportunities - The company has successfully delivered various offshore wind projects in Europe, including significant contracts with major clients such as RWE and GE, enhancing its reputation and market share [2] - The company is also focusing on the floating foundation market, with several projects expected to be launched in the coming years, indicating a growing demand for innovative offshore solutions [7] Strategic Positioning - The company's strategy of integrating offshore monopiles, towers, and self-built marine vessels is expected to solidify its competitive edge in the offshore engineering sector [9] - The transition to a DAP delivery model is anticipated to enhance profitability and operational efficiency, supported by a robust logistics framework [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrated strong profitability in 2024, achieving a net profit of 4.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.46%, despite a 12.61% decline in revenue to 37.80 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 29.83%, an increase of 6.59 percentage points year-on-year, marking the highest level in nearly a decade [1]. - The net profit margin reached 12.54%, up by 2.71 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a net profit of 1.92 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 1018% [1]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Orders - In 2024, European offshore wind project auctions reached a historical high of 36.8 GW, with offshore wind accounting for over half of this total, a 46.3% increase from 2023 [2]. - The company has significantly increased its export volume of offshore projects to Europe, delivering nearly 110,000 tons of various offshore products to major clients such as RWE and GE [2]. - The company is actively expanding into emerging markets in Japan, Southeast Asia, and Australia, leveraging its strong performance in Europe to secure new orders [3]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - The company is enhancing its core competitiveness through a "three-in-one" strategy involving offshore monopiles, self-built marine vessels, and floating foundations [6]. - The company plans to deliver two specialized offshore wind equipment transport vessels by 2025, aiming to establish a fleet of 10-20 large transport vessels [3]. - The company is also focusing on the floating foundation market, with several projects expected to be launched in Europe by 2025 [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The transition to a DAP delivery model is expected to strengthen the company's product profitability and overall supply capabilities [5]. - The company anticipates continued growth in overseas orders, supported by favorable market conditions and its competitive advantages [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 59.21 billion yuan, 78.05 billion yuan, and 92.79 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.57 billion yuan, 11.88 billion yuan, and 15.03 billion yuan [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][30]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in annual performance, with a revenue of 3.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 474 million yuan, an increase of 11.46% year-on-year. The gross profit margin for 2024 was 29.83%, up by 6.39 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 12.54%, up by 2.71 percentage points [1][7]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw remarkable performance, with revenue reaching 1.473 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 55.07%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 192 million yuan, a staggering year-on-year increase of 1017.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 77.44% [1][18]. - The company has successfully delivered nearly 110,000 tons of offshore wind products in 2024, achieving its first DAP delivery. The overseas revenue reached 1.733 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 50% of the wind power equipment segment's revenue [2][23]. - The European offshore wind market is expected to see a recovery, with approximately 20GW of projects auctioned in 2024, the highest annual auction volume in recent years. The company has successfully passed the qualification supplier certification of most leading European owners, positioning it to benefit from this recovery [3][26]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 858 million yuan, 1.287 billion yuan, and 1.597 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 19, 12, and 10 times [3][26]. - The financial forecast indicates a revenue increase to 4.904 billion yuan in 2025, a growth of 29.7% compared to 2024, and a net profit increase of 81% [4][28]. - The company's gross profit margin is projected to improve to 32% in 2025, with a net asset return (ROE) of 11.2% [4][28].