Report Overview - The report is a daily strategy report on precious metals by Shenwan Futures, covering market data, macro news, and analysis of precious metal trends [1] Market Data Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 821.68 and 823.66 respectively, with daily increases of 0.83% and 0.86%. Their trading volumes are 265,502 and 111,269, and open interests are 142,330 and 193,360 [2] - **Silver Futures**: The current prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 9,918.00 and 9,940.00 respectively, with daily increases of 1.00% and 0.98%. Their trading volumes are 627,101 and 238,141, and open interests are 270,592 and 333,080 [2] Spot Market - **Gold Spot**: Shanghai Gold T+D closed at 809.97 the previous day, up 1.27% with a gain of 10.19. London Gold closed at 817.04, up 0.77% with a gain of 6.27 [2] - **Silver Spot**: Shanghai Silver T+D closed at 9,780.00 the previous day, down 0.20% with a loss of 20.00. London Silver closed at 41.19, up 0.91% with a gain of 0.37 [2] Inventory - **Gold Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 40,251 kilograms, an increase of 627 kilograms from the previous day. COMEX gold inventory remains unchanged at 38,957,798 ounces [2] - **Silver Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 1,207,227 kilograms, an increase of 11,231 kilograms from the previous day. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 2,164,636 ounces to 516,067,724 ounces [2] Related Market Indicators - The current value of the US Dollar Index is 98.1485, up 0.29% from the previous day. The S&P Index is 6,460.26, down 0.64%. The US Treasury yield is 4.22%, down 1.40%. Brent crude oil is at $67.39, up 0.01%. The USD/CNY exchange rate is 7.1221, up 0.02% [2] Macro News - The Fed's latest Beige Book shows that economic activity in most parts of the US has hardly changed in recent weeks. Consumer spending is flat or declining as wages fail to keep up with price increases. All regions reported price increases, with 10 reporting "moderate or slight" inflation and 2 reporting "strong input price growth" [3] - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of job openings in July dropped to 7.181 million from a revised 7.36 million in June, hitting a 10 - month low and well below the expected 7.382 million [3] - Fed Governor Waller suggests starting interest - rate cuts this month and making multiple cuts in the coming months, but remains open to the specific pace. St. Louis Fed President Mousalem believes the current interest - rate level is suitable for the economic environment [3] - The final Eurozone Composite PMI for August slightly rose to 51, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the preliminary value, reaching a 12 - month high. The Services PMI dropped from 51 in July to 50.5 [3] Analysis and Strategy - Gold and silver have strengthened, with gold showing a convergent breakout. The market is focused on Friday's non - farm payroll data [3] - The decrease in US job openings, Trump's attempt to fire a Fed governor, and the proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list have influenced the market [3] - Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting are considered dovish, increasing expectations of a September interest - rate cut. Coupled with disappointing July non - farm payroll data, it is beneficial for precious metals [3] - The Fed's internal views are divided. Trump's personnel appointments affect market expectations of the Fed. However, due to tariff - induced inflation pressure, the Fed may still take a preventive approach to interest - rate cuts in September [3] - Trade negotiations have shown progress, but the overall trade environment has deteriorated. The "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the US fiscal deficit. The People's Bank of China's continuous gold purchases support the long - term trend of gold [3] - Overall, gold and silver are likely to show a stronger trend as the interest - rate cut approaches and Trump interferes with the Fed's independence. The market is focused on this week's non - farm payroll data [3]

Group 1: Report Core View - The continuous reduction in lead inventory supports the price [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking Price and Volume - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,865 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous day; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 1,998.5 dollars/ton, down 0.42% [1] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 30,342 lots, a decrease of 11,881 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 5,559 lots, an increase of 2,250 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 50,638 lots, a decrease of 866 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 160,192 lots, an increase of 785 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -50 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -42.5 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars [1] - The PB00 - PB01 spread was -45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the import premium was 110 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] Import Profit and Loss - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -575.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.1 yuan; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous third - month contract was -614.92 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63.5 yuan [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 55,874 tons, a decrease of 554 tons; the LME lead inventory was 254,550 tons, a decrease of 3,475 tons [1] Recycling Market - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,075 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 59,225 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons [1] - The price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -306 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [1] Group 3: News - Weak US JOLTS job openings data strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Waller said that interest rate cuts should start this month and could be cut multiple times in the next 3 - 6 months, with the pace depending on data [1] - Trump reiterated that tariffs could replace income tax, and the US was reported to use tariffs as a threat to oppose the UN shipping emissions agreement [1] Group 4: Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1]

特朗普政府周三向最高法院上诉，要求最高法院迅速裁定政府是否有权根据紧急状态的法律征收广泛关税。🗒️上周联邦巡回上诉法院以7:4裁定特朗普政府无实权实施多数关税措施，但同时将判决生效时间延长至10月14日。 https://t.co/4UDzNg7xOL外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普称，政府最快将于当地时间周三向最高法院提出上诉，并警告若早前上诉法院的裁决生效，“将对我们国家造成毁灭性打击”。特朗普表示，“我们将请求最高法院加速裁决，需要尽早获得判决。”“股市下跌正是因为市场需要关税措施，他们渴望关税。” ...

Economic Activity - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates that most of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported little change in economic activity, with only four districts noting moderate growth [1] - Consumer spending remained flat or declined across most districts, with many households' incomes not keeping pace with rising prices [1] - Nearly all districts reported price increases related to tariffs, with significant impacts on input costs [1] Employment Trends - Overall employment levels showed little change across 11 Federal Reserve districts, with one district experiencing a slight decline [2] - Seven districts reported that businesses were reluctant to hire due to weak demand and economic uncertainty, while two districts noted an increase in layoffs [2] - The reduction in immigrant labor, particularly affecting the construction industry, was highlighted as a significant factor impacting employment [2] Inflation and Price Expectations - Most regions described current price increases as "moderate to modest," but many businesses expect prices to continue rising in the coming months, with three districts anticipating further increases [1] - The report emphasized that businesses are cautious about raising prices due to concerns over potential loss of customers [1] Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 is expected to be influenced by the economic conditions outlined in the "Beige Book" [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is projected at 96.6%, with only a 3.4% chance of maintaining current rates [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. For example, gold is expected to break new highs, while silver is likely to reach previous highs. Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to a weaker US dollar, and zinc is expected to trade within a range [2][7][14]. - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - economic data, central bank policies, and geopolitical events. For instance, weak US JOLTS job openings data has strengthened the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut [7][14][17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to break new highs. The trend strength is 2, indicating a strong bullish view. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 814.88, with a daily increase of 1.31%, and the night - session closing price was 821.68, with a night - session increase of 1.40% [2][7][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to reach previous highs. The trend strength is 2, also indicating a strong bullish view. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9820, with a daily decrease of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 9918.00, with a night - session increase of 1.34% [2][7][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: With the US dollar under pressure, copper prices are firm. The trend strength is 1, suggesting a moderately bullish view. The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,110, with a daily increase of 0.56%, and the night - session closing price was 80260, with a night - session increase of 0.19% [2][13][15]. - **Zinc**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22285, with a daily decrease of 0.18% [2][16][18]. - **Lead**: With continuous inventory reduction, lead prices are supported. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16865, with a daily increase of 0.09% [2][19]. - **Tin**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is 1, a moderately bullish view. The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 273,120, with a daily decrease of 0.31% [2][22][27]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20710, with a decrease of 10 compared to the previous day [2][28][29]. - **Alumina**: The price center is moving down. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a bearish view. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2992, with a decrease of 30 compared to the previous day [2][28][29]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations based on fundamentals and be affected by news - driven sentiment. Stainless steel prices are expected to have narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,790, and the closing price of the Stainless Steel main contract was 12,915 [2][31][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Spot trading has improved, but the continuous increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the futures market. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 72,080, with a decrease of 1,200 compared to the previous day [2][37][41]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With warehouse receipt accumulation, the strategy is to short at high prices. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,490, with an increase of 20 compared to the previous day [2][42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market news. The trend strength is 1, a moderately bullish view. The closing price of PS2511 was 52,160, with an increase of 285 compared to the previous day [2][43][45]. - **Iron Ore**: Due to repeated macro - expectations, it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the futures was 777.0, with an increase of 5.5 and a daily increase of 0.71% [2][46]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,034, with a decrease of 10 and a decrease of 0.33%; the closing price of HC2510 was 3,310, with a decrease of 6 and a decrease of 0.18% [2][48][49]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511 was 5520, with a decrease of 8; the closing price of Manganese Silico - Manganese 2511 was 5720, with a decrease of 10 [2][53][55]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of JM2601 was 1106, with a decrease of 6.5 and a decrease of 0.6%; the closing price of J2601 was 1594, with a decrease of 2.5 and a decrease of 0.2% [2][56]. - **Log**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 775.5, with a daily decrease of 2.8% [2][58][61]. - **Para - Xylene**: The cost has collapsed, and the unilateral trend has weakened. The trend strength is not provided. The closing price of the PX main contract was 6810, with a decrease of 24 and a decrease of 0.35% [2][62]. - **PTA**: The strategy is to take a long position in the spread between different months. The trend strength is not provided. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4732, with a decrease of 24 and a decrease of 0.50% [2][62]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak. The trend strength is not provided. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4331, with a decrease of 8 and a decrease of 0.18% [2][62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Lacks continuous driving forces and is waiting for a correction. The trend strength is not provided [2][61]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to have an oscillatory adjustment. The trend strength is not provided [2][61]. - **Soybean Meal**: Due to trade friction concerns, US soybeans are weak, while domestic soybean meal is slightly stronger. The trend strength is not provided [2][63]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is not provided [2][65]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the production and cost in Guangxi. The trend strength is not provided [2][66]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the new crop listing situation. The trend strength is not provided [2][67]. - **Egg**: The near - term trading sentiment is strong. The trend strength is not provided [2][69]. - **Live Pig**: The spot market is weak, while the long - term expectation is strong. The trend strength is not provided [2][70]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the new peanut listing. The trend strength is not provided [2][71].

Core Insights - Apple's CEO Tim Cook has been praised for effectively managing the company's relationship with the White House, particularly through a commitment to invest an additional $100 billion in the U.S. over the next five years, which has helped mitigate tariff threats to Apple's business [2][7] - Despite these efforts, analysts predict that Apple may increase device prices due to the impact of tariffs, with some expecting the average price of the upcoming iPhone 17 series to rise by $50 [3][11] Investment and Tariff Management - Tim Cook's investment commitment has raised Apple's total planned investment in the U.S. to $600 billion over five years, and the company has received exemptions from upcoming semiconductor tariffs [2][7] - Apple has incurred $800 million in tariff costs in the last quarter, with projections indicating that this could rise to $1.1 billion in the current quarter [8][11] Product Pricing Strategy - Analysts expect Apple to release four new iPhone models, likely named the "iPhone 17 series," with the base model priced at $829, and the Pro Max model at $1,199 [3][10] - There is speculation that Apple may discontinue the Plus version of the iPhone and introduce a lighter model, which could be priced around $899, potentially leading to a price increase compared to previous models [4][5] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The overall trend in the smartphone market shows rising average prices, influenced by increasing component costs, which may lead Apple to raise prices while emphasizing new features [11][12] - Analysts suggest that Apple might indirectly raise prices by eliminating entry-level models, thus pushing consumers towards higher-priced options [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The GPU market is experiencing significant growth, particularly benefiting Nvidia, which has increased its market share to 94% as of the latest report from Jon Peddie Research [2][4]. Market Overview - The global PC-based graphics AIB market is projected to reach 11.6 million units by Q2 2025, reflecting a nearly 30% quarter-over-quarter growth [2]. - Data center GPU shipments also saw a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.7% [2]. Competitive Landscape - Nvidia's dominance in the GPU market continues to strengthen, while AMD's market share has decreased by 2% to 6% [4]. - According to the latest Steam survey, Nvidia holds nearly 75% of the GPU market share, with 7 out of the top 13 performing GPUs in August being from the Blackwell RTX 5000 series [7]. Pricing Trends - There is a notable decline in prices for mid-range and entry-level AIBs, while high-end AIB prices are on the rise, with many retailers facing stock shortages [7][9]. - The overall AIB attach rate for desktop computers increased by 2.3% to 154%, indicating a strong demand for GPUs relative to CPU sales [7][11]. Future Outlook - Jon Peddie Research forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -5.4% for AIBs from 2024 to 2028, with an estimated installed base of 163 million units by the end of the forecast period [9]. - The anticipated release of the RTX 5000 series in early 2025 and the potential launch of Super versions by the end of this year may influence market dynamics [10]. Consumer Behavior - Despite challenges, gamers appear willing to invest in upgrading their systems, contributing to the increased attach rate of GPUs [11]. - Concerns over tariffs and potential import taxes on semiconductor products are influencing consumer purchasing behavior [11].

美联储，重大发布。今日凌晨，美联储发布的经济褐皮书显示，各地区均出现价格上涨，大部分辖区报 告为"温和或轻微"的通胀，大部分辖区整体就业水平几乎没有净变化。其中，关于通胀的提及次数接近 四年来的低点。美联储新主席热门人选主张"多次降息"。美联储理事沃勒表示，美联储应在本月开始降 息，预计在未来3—6个月内，可能会看到多次降息。 哈佛"硬刚"特朗普迎阶段性胜利。当地时间9月3日，美国法官裁定特朗普政府冻结哈佛大学超过20亿美 元联邦资助的行为系非法，并要求政府必须恢复这笔资金。今年4月，特朗普政府以哈佛大学未充分解 决校园反犹太主义问题为由，削减其联邦资助。数月以来，特朗普政府和哈佛大学一直在就恢复研究经 费进行谈判。 美股方面，道指跌0.05%，标普500指数涨0.51%，纳指涨1.02%。 大型科技股多数走高，美法官裁决引谷歌苹果暴涨，周三谷歌涨超9%，创4月9日以来最佳单日表现， 股价创纪录新高，市值单日增加2300亿美元（约合人民币1.6万亿元），总市值达2.79万亿美元；苹果收 涨3.8%，创近一个月来最大涨幅；特斯拉涨1.44%。比特币矿商American Bitcoin借壳上市首日涨 16.52% ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report indicates that from mid-July to the end of August, all Federal Reserve districts experienced price increases related to tariffs [1] - Many districts reported significant impacts of tariffs on input prices, with increases noted in insurance, utilities, and technology services [1] - Companies have largely passed on rising costs to customers, and businesses expect prices to continue rising in the coming months [1] Group 2 - Due to increased economic uncertainty and higher tariff rates, many households' wage growth has not kept pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending across all Federal Reserve districts [1] - The overall employment level remained largely unchanged in 11 Federal Reserve districts, with one district experiencing a slight decline in employment [1] - Seven districts reported reluctance among businesses to hire due to weakened demand or increased uncertainty, while two districts noted an increase in layoffs [1] Group 3 - The U.S. government has been imposing higher tariffs on trade partners, with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 41% announced on July 31 [2] - The trade-weighted average tariff rate for all products imported into the U.S. rose significantly to 20.11% as of August 7, compared to just 2.44% at the beginning of the year [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report indicates that price increases related to tariffs have been observed across all Federal Reserve districts from mid-July to the end of August [1] - The average trade-weighted tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on all products has significantly increased to 20.11% as of August 7, compared to 2.44% at the beginning of the year [2] Group 1: Economic Impact - The report highlights that many Federal Reserve districts reported noticeable impacts of tariffs on input prices, with increases in insurance, utilities, and technology service prices [1] - Companies have been passing on the increased costs to customers, and there are widespread expectations among businesses for continued price increases in the coming months [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Labor Market - Due to rising economic uncertainty and increased tariff rates, wage growth for many households has not kept pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending across all Federal Reserve districts [1] - The overall employment level has remained largely unchanged in 11 Federal Reserve districts, with one district experiencing a slight decline in employment levels [1]