来源：申银万国期货 作者：申银万国期货 研报正文 由于担忧美国政府即将对进口药品发起的关税，制药商正在大量囤积库存。最新贸易数据显示，今年3 月，美国药品进口量激增200亿美元。爱尔兰对美国药品出口增幅尤其显著，并使得该国对美国的贸易 顺差首次超过对中国的贸易顺差。 评论及策略 黄金延续坚挺，白银弱势震荡。5月美联储利率会议继续按兵不动，声明表示经济前景有关的不确定性 进一步增加"，"并判定，失业率上升和通胀上升的风险已经增加。""新美联储通讯社"称，美联储官员 在考虑重点是就业的风险还是通胀的风险。 昨日有关中美将就贸易问题进行会晤的新闻令金银下跌。在"对等性关税"冲击后，市场情绪逐步平复， 关注度移向贸易谈判进展和4月的经济数据表现之上。但当前未传出贸易谈判方面更多的实质性进展。 而5月开始公布的经济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，但4月非农数据显示美国就业市场仍然强 劲，未来市场经济数据或呈现更将明显的滞胀态势。 美联储宣布，将继续以3月会议宣布的更慢速度缩减资产负债表。美联储利率决议后，美股、美元、美 债收益率走低，黄金小幅走高。美联储利率决议公布后，交易员继续认为美联储将在七月之前降息，仍 然预期 ...

转自：金十数据 美联储于周四凌晨宣布维持利率不变，但同时指出通胀与失业率双双上升的风险正在加剧。这一表态令 美国经济前景更加不明朗，美联储正艰难应对特朗普政府对等关税政策带来的冲击。联邦公开市场委员 会在政策声明中称，美国经济"继续以稳健步伐扩张"，但将一季度产出下滑归因于企业和家庭抢在新增 进口税生效前囤货导致的创纪录进口量。声明强调劳动力市场保持"强劲"，通胀仍"略高于目标水平"。 政策走向将取决于这两大风险的演变——更棘手的情况是，若通胀与失业率同步攀升，将迫使美联储抉 择哪一方更需通过货币政策加以对冲。在会后新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示无需急于调整政 策，明确应采取观望态度，重点关注关税对经济数据的影响。 鲍威尔讲话后，美元指数先跌后涨0.35%，欧元下挫0.51%；标普500指数短暂下探后微升0.17%；10年 期美债收益率降至4.2791%，2年期收益率先抑后扬收于3.793%。 以下是多位分析师对美联储按兵不动的看法： 高盛资产管理公共投资首席投资官阿希什·沙阿（Ashish Shah）："劳动力市场需持续疲软才能重启宽松 周期，但相关信号可能数月后才显现，6月会议大概率继续按兵不动。" ...

核心要点 1. 投资策略调整：因估值因素，去年四季度开始减持超配股票与信贷，今年关税问题升温 后进一步降低风险。当前股票满仓但不超配，投资注重全球布局，看好金融板块，对新兴市 场持谨慎开放态度。 2. 经济形势判断：虽关税致不确定性增加，担忧滞胀和衰退，但经济衰退不是大概率事件。 美国经济优势犹存，科技和金融是经济韧性的关键支撑；欧洲市场今年表现好，是估值重新 定价，未来发展取决于财政等政策实施效果。 3. 科技行业展望：科技股曾因盈利、创新和资本支出表现好，估值受认可。目前资本支出 受关税影响，但企业核心增长因素仍在，只是发展节奏或因经济环境调整。 4. 新兴市场机遇：今年新兴市场因美国进口前置受益，表现优于美国，但长期看仍落后。 新兴市场债务是风险分散工具，收益率有吸引力，投资需谨慎选择，关注特定国家和企业机 会。 5. 美联储政策影响：美联储目前维持利率不变，下半年政策走向受关税、通胀和就业等因 素影响。市场期望降息，若其他央行降息而美联储维持，利差变化会影响资金流动和市场走 势。 6. 美元走势分析：美元近期承压，过去十年助力投资，其作为储备货币地位稳固，虽有波 动但难以被替代。近期走势受外资流动影响 ...

所长 早读 2025-05-08 期 国泰君安期货 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 符合市场预期，美联储继续按兵不动 观点分享： 美东时间 5 月 7 日，美联储在货币政策委员会 FOMC 会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区 间保持 4.25%至 4.5%不变。这是美联储连续第三次货币政策会议决定暂停行动。特朗普今年 1 月上任以来，尽管一再喊话呼吁降息，但美联储还是一直保持观望并未降息，还暗示目前 关税等政策有引发滞胀的风险。相比 3 月的 FOMC 会后声明，在 3 月"经济前景相关的不确 定性增加"的表述上添加了"进一步"这个词，强调了"不确定性"的增加。并判定"失业 率上升和通胀上升的风险已经增加"。并且在声明开头提到"净出口波动已影响数据"，尽 管接下来依然使用了"最近的指标显示经济活动继续稳健扩张"的表述。另外，声明没有再 次提到"进一步放慢缩减资产负债表（缩表）这一量化紧缩（QT）行动的步伐"。再有，本 次既不调整利率也不再改动缩表的决策，全体 FOMC 的投票委员都表示支持。 宏观：5 月7 日，国新办发布会官宣一系列金融稳市场、稳预期政策。首先从政策内容上看， 所 长 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, especially not preemptively, with future rate cuts depending on tariff negotiations [1] - If tariff negotiations do not yield substantial progress, the Fed may be forced to initiate "recession-style" rate cuts, potentially reducing rates by 100 basis points by the end of the year [1] - Conversely, if effective results are achieved in tariff negotiations, rate cuts may be delayed until December, with a more moderate reduction [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities maintains a configuration suggestion focused on mid-term dividends, domestic demand, and technology, indicating a moderately positive short-term outlook [2] - The recent announcement of a comprehensive financial policy to stabilize the market is expected to support risk appetite among market participants [2] - The focus on technology and consumption sectors is reaffirmed as key areas for policy support [2] Group 3 - China Galaxy Securities continues to view the banking sector as having strong configuration value, supported by a series of financial policies including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [3] - The release of liquidity and innovation in structural tools are expected to optimize the credit structure of banks [3] - The accumulation of positive fundamental factors in the banking sector is anticipated to accelerate the realization of its dividend value [3]

Group 1: Key Insights on Mixue Group - Mixue Group is a leading ready-to-drink beverage company in China, with a global store count of 46,479 as of the end of 2024, making it the largest in the industry [10][11] - The company focuses on the affordable price segment, with core products priced between 2 to 8 RMB, appealing to cost-conscious consumers [10][12] - Mixue's main products, including fresh lemon water, fresh ice cream, and pearl milk tea, account for over 40% of its revenue, highlighting its strong market position [10][11] - The company has established the largest and earliest supply chain in the industry, with over 60% of beverage ingredients sourced from its own production, ensuring quality and cost control [11][12] - Mixue aims to build a strong emotional connection with consumers through its brand IP, "Xue Wang," which enhances marketing efficiency and brand recognition [11][12] - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow at compound annual growth rates of 19% and 18% respectively from 2024 to 2027, driven by new franchise openings [11][12] Group 2: Key Insights on Konjac Industry - The company aims to become a leader in the konjac industry, with three main product lines: konjac powder, konjac food, and konjac beauty products [4][12] - It has a robust supply chain and deep processing capabilities, allowing it to maintain price stability and benefit from industry upgrades [4][12] - The demand for konjac products is expected to grow due to increasing health awareness among consumers, particularly among overweight individuals and the elderly [4][12] - The domestic per capita consumption of konjac is significantly lower than in Japan, indicating substantial growth potential in the market [4][12] - The company is well-positioned to capture market opportunities as it serves major downstream brands, benefiting from the rising demand for konjac products [4][12]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 联储且行且看，"滞胀"风险增加 ──5 月美联储议息会议传递的信号 核心观点 本月美联储对通胀和就业市场的风险评估均有所上行，认为失业率和通胀双双走高的 滞胀风险正在逐步增加。相机抉择的模式下整体政策立场中性。展望未来： 降息方面，预计年内联储整体仍将保持较强政策定力，潜在的"滞胀"趋势下，我们 认为联储的政策重心或将聚焦于通胀。主要原因在于经济虽有下行压力但劳动力供给 端约束或使得失业率仍在中性目标附近。在此背景下，我们预计联储将保持政策定力， 在下半年逐季降息，每次 25BP。但 6 月议息会议，尤其是对等关税明朗化以前能否降 息存在较强不确定性。 数量型政策方面，预计金融稳定将是下半年联储政策。当前美股、美债均存在一定流 动性压力，一旦因特朗普的政策反复导致外资撤离继而引发美国资产大幅波动，则联 储的缩表可能暂停。如果 10 年美债利率再次冲击 5%，不排除联储启动紧急购债稳定 市场。 ❑ "滞胀"风险评估增加，政策路径且行且看 利率区间方面，美联储按兵不动符合会前市场定价，联邦基金目标利率维持在 4. 25%-4. 50%区间；议息声明中，相较 1 月联储 ...

美国总统特朗普再次失望。 尽管他一再喊话呼吁降息，美联储还是选择观望，并未降息，还暗示特朗普的政策有引发滞胀的风险。 美联储主席鲍威尔会后也再次重申， 美联储不急于行动，不认为应该先发制人降息应对关税冲击，又一次打脸特朗普。 鲍威尔还表示， 特朗普对降息的呼声"根本不会影响我们的工作"，从未主动要求与任何总统会面，并且将来也不会。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的Nick Timiraos评论称，美联储官员在考虑重点是就业的风险还是通胀的风险。 虽然美联储继续按兵不动，但特朗普"出招"了 ，计划撤销拜登政府的AI芯片出口限制新规，助推美股大盘收涨，告别两连跌，美元指数加速反弹，黄金进一步 回落。 打脸特朗普， 美联储 再次暂停降息 美东时间5月7日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间保持4.25%至4.5%不变。 这是美联储连续第三次货币政策会议决定暂停行动。美联储自去年9月起连续三次会议降息，合计降幅100个基点，自今年1月特朗普上任以来，美联储一直暂 停行动。 本次决议得到全体FOMC票委支持，未像上次有一人反对。美联储声明称， 经济前景不确定性"进一步"增加，新增语句"失业率上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in May aligns with market expectations, indicating a cautious approach amid rising risks of both unemployment and inflation, suggesting a potential "stagflation" scenario [1][2] Monetary Policy Outlook - The absence of new dot plots and economic forecasts means the monetary policy statement is the only document to consider, highlighting the Fed's awareness of the dual risks of rising unemployment and inflation [2] - Fed Chair Powell's comments suggest that despite the rising risks, economic data has not shown significant deterioration, allowing the Fed to remain patient and avoid preemptive rate cuts [3] Economic Conditions - Current economic indicators, such as a stable labor market and low unemployment, do not warrant immediate action from the Fed, with Powell emphasizing that the policy is "well-positioned" [3] - The Fed's ability to support the economy is constrained by potential inflationary pressures from tariffs, contrasting with the more favorable conditions during the previous trade tensions in 2019 [3] Future Rate Cut Scenarios - The Fed's future rate cut decisions will largely depend on the outcomes of tariff negotiations, with two potential scenarios outlined: 1. If trade talks fail and tariffs remain high, the Fed may be forced into a "recession-style" rate cut of up to 100 basis points by year-end [4] 2. If effective results from trade negotiations are achieved, the first rate cut may be delayed until December, with a more moderate reduction [4] Market Implications - The uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations and the rising "stagflation" risks create a challenging macroeconomic environment for capital markets, as the Fed adopts a wait-and-see approach rather than proactive rate cuts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in May aligns with market expectations, indicating a cautious approach amid rising unemployment and inflation risks, suggesting a potential "stagflation" environment [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates in the short term, particularly not preemptively [1] - Future rate cuts will depend on the progress of tariff negotiations, with a potential for a "recession-style" cut of 100 basis points by year-end if negotiations do not yield substantial results [1] - **Economic Conditions** - Current economic data remains robust, which contributes to the Fed's reluctance to act hastily [1] - If effective outcomes from tariff negotiations are achieved, the Fed may delay rate cuts until December, with a more moderate reduction expected [1]