2月3日，上期所黄金期货主力合约收涨0.63%，至1093.78元/克。 继上周五和本周一大幅下跌后，周二金价跌势缓和。贵金属价格上周五夜盘巨震，最主要的影响因素在于新 任美联储主席提名公布。美国总统特朗普1月30日通过社交媒体宣布，提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下一任 美联储主席。市场对美联储主席人选的预期此前长时间集中在凯文·沃什和白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈 塞特两人。1月16日特朗普明确表示想让凯文·哈塞特"留在白宫"，沃什最终获得提名并不意外，但预期落地 仍对市场情绪产生巨大冲击。沃什主张大幅削减央行资产负债表的"鹰派"立场可能与未来潜在的降息存在矛 盾，引发海外市场对未来货币政策走向的担忧。持仓拥挤、获利盘离场导致的技术性回调，与上述担忧叠 加，最终演变为对贵金属资产的恐慌性抛售。 随着贵金属价格波动加剧，国内外交易所相继收紧了风控措施。上海期货交易所于1月30日公告，自2月3日 （星期二）收盘结算时起，白银期货AG2605、AG2606、AG2607、AG2608、AG2609、AG2610、AG2611、 AG2612、AG2701合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为17%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为1 ...

东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞向时代财经表示，现货黄金重新站上5000美元/盎司，白银价格也 大幅反弹，一方面源于市场意识到沃什"降息+缩表"的主张虽偏鹰派，但并非完全否定降息路径，市场 对美联储降息的长期预期并未消失，由沃什被提名美联储主席所导致的市场恐慌情绪有所缓和；另一方 面是前几日暴跌大部分属于市场杠杆和情绪回归正常的调整，金价估值回归理性，吸引价资者抄底，此 外程序化交易在低位触发买入信号，量化资金回补仓位。此外，本轮金价调整并非代表趋势性逆转，金 银长期牛市的逻辑仍然存在。（时代财经 何秀兰） 2月4日，现货黄金重新站上5000美元/盎司，盘中涨超2.5%。现货白银盘中突破88美元/盎司，盘中涨超 3%。 ...

近期黄金市场可谓上演了"过山车"行情，在创下历史新高后经历了大幅回调，国内黄金ETF也未能幸免，一度出现大面积跌停。黄金市场的"冰与火之歌"开 启，今日黄金再次反弹，黄金ETF国泰（518800）盘中涨超3.6%。 从中长期视角出发，黄金的上行趋势仍未完待续。货币宽松、黄金的避险属性以及全球去美元化趋势，仍是支撑黄金的中长期利好因素。当前来看，我们认 为短期剧烈回撤或不改变长期趋势，本轮牛市的美联储降息周期、逆全球化与海外不确定性、全球去美元化和央行购金等逻辑仍未逆转，长期维度上对金价 构成支撑。预计美联储年内仍可能继续降息，而在当前通胀有所回落的环境下，黄金作为不生息的资产仍将具备吸引力。 面对黄金市场的短期巨震与长期向好的格局，不同类型的投资者应采取差异化策略，兼顾短期反弹机会与长期配置价值，理性应对市场波动，规避盲目跟风 操作的风险。短期内，黄金仍处于高波动阶段，政策预期、地缘政治等因素仍可能引发价格反复，因此需控制仓位，避免过度加杠杆。 同时，需密切关注沃什提名的后续进展、美联储政策表态以及美国经济数据，及时应对政策预期变动带来的市场波动。建议投资者静待市场波动率降低，树 立配置思维，不盲目追涨杀跌。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China plans to include copper concentrate in the national reserve, leading to a general rebound in metal prices. The A - share market rebounded on Tuesday, with growth - style small - cap stocks leading the gains. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short term and remain positive in the long term [2][3]. - Precious metals rebounded due to bargain - hunting. However, it is too early to say that the adjustment is over, and prices are expected to continue to adjust until volatility cools [4][5]. - Copper prices rebounded significantly because of China's plan to increase copper reserves. Short - term copper prices are expected to continue to rebound [6][7]. - Aluminum prices' adjustment slowed after risk sentiment was released. The market is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [8][9]. - Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level due to the co - existence of bullish and bearish factors [10]. - Cast aluminum is expected to follow the cost and oscillate as it is in a seasonal off - season with no prominent fundamental contradictions [11]. - Zinc prices had a weak rebound due to positive news, but it is hard to say that the adjustment is over [12]. - Lead prices are expected to stabilize and weakly correct following the non - ferrous sector [13]. - Tin prices had a weak rebound due to the boost of capacity control signals, but the fundamental support is weakening [14]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate as the steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the Spring Festival [15]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate as the supply is strong and demand is weak [16][17]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate as the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival [18]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate as the precipitation in Argentina has improved and the domestic soybean purchase plan is progressing [19][20]. - Palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust as the production in Malaysia decreased, exports increased, and India's imports surged in January [21][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump signed a temporary spending agreement, ending the partial shutdown. The Fed's officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The dollar index fell, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose. The Nasdaq fell sharply. Gold and copper prices rebounded, and oil prices rose due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rebounded on Tuesday, with growth - style small - cap stocks leading the gains. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association is studying to include copper concentrate in the national reserve [3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - On Tuesday, precious metals rebounded significantly. Some investors bought on dips, and domestic consumers "bottom - fished" physical metals. The adjustment of precious metal prices is a correction of market sentiment. It is too early to say that the adjustment is over, and prices are expected to continue to adjust [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper rebounded from a low level. China plans to increase strategic copper reserves. Geopolitical risks and the weak dollar have pushed up the metal's valuation. Overseas mines'复产 is not smooth, non - US inventories are low, and domestic inventory accumulation has slowed. Copper prices are expected to continue to rebound in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, and LME aluminum rose. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The risk sentiment was released, and the market repaired the previous over - reaction. The fundamentals are weak, and aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [8][9]. 3.1.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures contract rose slightly. The social inventory accumulation slowed, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased. The market is in a game between the expected production cuts during the Spring Festival and the new capacity and cost - reduction pressure after the Spring Festival. Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level [10]. 3.1.6 Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures contract fell. Cast aluminum follows the cost and oscillates as it is in a seasonal off - season with no prominent fundamental contradictions [11]. 3.1.7 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc stabilized and oscillated. The US government's shutdown concern decreased, and the Fed's dovish statement alleviated market pessimism. The downstream buying decreased, and the domestic market is in the Spring Festival inventory accumulation cycle. Zinc prices had a weak rebound, but it is hard to say that the adjustment is over [12]. 3.1.8 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead oscillated horizontally. The LME inventory increased, and domestic downstream enterprises are on holiday. The inventory is expected to increase, which suppresses lead prices. However, the loss of secondary lead smelters has expanded, and the price is expected to stabilize and weakly correct [13]. 3.1.9 Tin - On Tuesday, the tin futures contract had a weak rebound. The market's selling pressure was repaired due to the capacity control signal. However, the terminal demand is weakening, and the supply from Myanmar and Indonesia has recovered. Tin prices are expected to have a weak rebound and repair [14]. 3.1.10 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The spot market trading volume decreased. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the Spring Festival. Steel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - policies [15]. 3.1.11 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The port inventory increased, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [16][17]. 3.1.12 Coking Coal and Coke - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The supply is tightening due to environmental protection policies and coal mine holidays, and the demand is weak as steel mills are on holiday. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to oscillate [18]. 3.1.13 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures fell. The precipitation in Argentina has improved, and the domestic soybean purchase plan is progressing. The market is expected to oscillate [19][20]. 3.1.14 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures fell slightly. The production in Malaysia decreased, exports increased, and India's imports surged in January. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust [21][23]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, in both domestic and international markets [24]. 3.3 Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and other products from February 2 to February 3 [25][28][30].

铂：低位震荡 钯：ETF 流出或压制价格 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 04 日 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 572. 95 | | 3.77% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 566. 81 | | 9.76% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2212. 50 | | 4. 43% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2214. 40 | | 3.78% | | | | 纪金期货2606 | 450. 55 | | 8. 91% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货包金 | 423.00 | | 8. 74% | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.724.00 | | 1. 35% | | | | 伦敦现货把金(前日) | 1.741.50 | | 0. 78% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日 ...

1.一位美国官员表示，伊朗革命卫队原计划于上周日和本周一在霍尔木兹海峡进行实弹军事演习， 但在收到美国的警告后取消了演习。 2.一位白宫官员表示，美联储理事米兰已辞去白宫经济顾问委员会主席一职。自去年 9 月加入美联 储以来，米兰在该职位上一直处于休假状态。在继任者获得确认前，他将继续担任美联储理事。米 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284 号） 研究局限性和风险提示 2026 年 2 月 4 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1096.84 | 1093.780 | 20821 | 21446 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1 ...

贵金属日报 2026-02-04 周二，贵金属从此前的多头踩踏离场转为震荡修复。在市场挤出杠杆头寸后黄金重回基本面。 首先，美国 ISM-PMI 数据的超预期表现缓解市场对美国经济的担忧，其次，本轮在沃什被提名 后的鹰派预期行情走完后，资金重新聚焦美联储后续降息周期的落地路径。 贵金属 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 4.20 %，报 1108.80 元/克，沪银涨 5.93 %，报 22393.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 6.83 %， 报 4970.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 10.27 %，报 84.92 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.28 %，美元指数报 97.37 ； 白银方面，在前期趋势性上涨过程中，盘面积聚大量投机杠杆资金，叠加宏观预期快速转向、 月末合约移仓换月的双重冲击，资金集中平仓引发踩踏式下跌，完成对高杠杆资金的快速清洗， 当前亦随黄金同步进入杠杆出清后的震荡整固阶段。 此外，现阶段正处于沃什 5 月正式上台前的政策空档期，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰及巴尔金的 鸽派表态为前几个交易日大幅下挫提供了反弹空间。 【策略观点】 周二贵金属结束多头踩踏，转入震荡整理，杠杆出清 ...

持续突破历史新高纪录后，国际金价近期走出"过山车"行情。 1月31日，现货黄金盘中大跌超12%，创40年来最大单日跌幅，最低触及4682美元/盎司；2月2日市场延续下跌趋势，最低触及4402美元/盎司，年内涨幅从 30%骤降至4%，前期涨势近乎抹平；而时至今日，国际金价在经历连续巨震后，上演深V反弹，重新站上5000美元/盎司关口，震荡行情加剧。 这场惊心动魄的行情，让此前持续加速上涨的贵金属市场瞬间降温，更让全球投资者陷入对"避险资产神话"的重新审视。当避险资产成为风险来源，投资者 还能持有黄金吗？黄金的上涨趋势是否还能延续？ 巨震溯源 1、导火索：沃什获提名，鹰派预期升温 黄金本轮暴跌的直接触发因素是特朗普提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）为下任美联储主席。 从凯文·沃什的主张来看，其过往以坚定的通胀鹰派著称，曾公开反对量化宽松并主张快速缩表，被视为美联储独立性的捍卫者；但近年来其立场转向务 实，公开支持降息，称不降息才是对美联储信誉的最大威胁，这一调整与特朗普希望更快降息的诉求形成表面契合，形成鹰派框架结合鸽派信号的独特组 合。即便如此，市场仍聚焦于其鹰派历史立场，担忧其上台后将推动"降息+缩表" ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Fed has internal differences, and the market speculates on policy changes after Wash takes office. The US government shutdown crisis is resolved, which may increase risk appetite. Silver may fluctuate passively following gold and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. - In February, PTA may have no new maintenance plans, and the demand side is weak around the Spring Festival. PTA is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory. The cost side is affected by the weak supply - demand of PX and high - volatility of crude oil. PTA is in a short - term transition [1]. - The national pig price is mainly declining, with oversupply. However, pre - festival stocking is expected to support the price, and there is an expectation of a small rebound in some areas. The short - term downward space of pig prices is limited [3]. - The increase in palm oil exports in January indicates a boost in demand, mainly due to the expansion of the international soybean - palm oil price difference. Palm oil prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term [3]. - During the traditional Spring Festival stocking period, the market stocking sentiment is weak, and the spot performance is weak. Due to sufficient supply, the soybean meal price is expected to decline in the short term [4]. - Manganese silicon continues to have a loose supply - demand situation, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4]. - As domestic coal mines approach the holiday, production will gradually decline. The coking coal fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [5]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream terminal procurement decreases, and market activity declines. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [5]. - The domestic copper smelting project is restricted, and the growth of refined copper production may slow down. The demand side is weak, and copper prices are expected to oscillate and repair in the short term [6]. - The decline in bauxite shipping and port congestion data indicates an adjustment in short - term demand. Aluminum prices are expected to enter an oscillation and consolidation stage [7]. - In January, the capital market was in a net injection pattern, which is beneficial to the bond market. However, due to macro - prudential control, the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. - Geopolitical factors and the expected reduction of India's Russian crude oil purchases have led to a rebound in crude oil futures. Before the new OPEC+ policy is introduced in March, the market is expected to fluctuate with geopolitical factors [9]. - Domestic rubber is in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the off - season. The inventory has recovered to the medium level, and the demand is weak. Short - term trading is recommended [11]. - Geopolitical disturbances and policy uncertainties still exist, but there is no further deterioration. Gold has insufficient downward momentum and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [11]. - The domestic methanol market has high production and weak demand, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with high inventory and weak demand. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - The ethylene glycol market has weak supply - demand expectations, with low factory profits, continuous inventory accumulation, and a decline in downstream polyester开工率. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [14]. Group 3: Summaries by Product Silver - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The US government shutdown crisis is resolved, and silver may follow gold and oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. PTA - In January, the average monthly load of PTA was 77.2%, up 3.9% from December and down 2.3% from the same period last year. In February, there may be no new maintenance plans, and the demand is weak. PTA is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory [1]. Pig - On February 3, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.56 yuan/kg, up 0.7% from the previous day. The national pig price is mainly declining, but pre - festival stocking is expected to support the price [3]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports in January increased by 14.89% compared with the previous month. India's palm oil imports in January increased by 51%. Palm oil prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term [3]. Soybean Meal - On February 3, the domestic soybean meal spot market prices were mixed. The market stocking sentiment is weak, and the supply is sufficient. The soybean meal price is expected to decline in the short term [4]. Manganese Silicon - The national 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprise sample has an operating rate of 36.21% and a daily output of 27,485 tons. Manganese silicon has a loose supply - demand situation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4]. Coking Coal - The independent coking enterprise sample has a capacity utilization rate of 71.86%, a daily coke output of 628,400 tons, and a coking coal inventory of 1.23479 billion tons. Coking coal prices are expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [5]. Rebar - On February 3, the domestic steel market prices were in a narrow - range consolidation. As the Spring Festival approaches, steel prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [5]. Copper - The domestic copper smelting project is restricted, and the growth of refined copper production may slow down. The demand side is weak, and copper prices are expected to oscillate and repair in the short term [6]. Aluminum - As of January 30, the bauxite shipping volume from major countries to China decreased, and the port congestion volume also decreased. Aluminum prices are expected to enter an oscillation and consolidation stage [7]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - In January, the capital market was in a net injection pattern, which is beneficial to the bond market. However, due to macro - prudential control, the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors and the expected reduction of India's Russian crude oil purchases have led to a rebound in crude oil futures. Before the new OPEC+ policy is introduced in March, the market is expected to fluctuate with geopolitical factors [9]. Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 58.8 baht/kg, and the cup glue price is 53.5 baht/kg. As of February 1, the inventory in Qingdao increased. Rubber is in the off - season, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. Gold - Geopolitical disturbances and policy uncertainties still exist, but there is no further deterioration. Gold has insufficient downward momentum and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [11]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest decreased, and the port inventory increased. The domestic methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. Soda Ash - The national heavy - quality soda ash mainstream price is 1,227 yuan/ton, and the output and inventory increased. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol in East China decreased, the output increased slightly, and the port inventory increased. The supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [14].

2026年02月04日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：2 月 3 日夜盘贵金属全面超跌反弹，国内与国际市场同步大涨。沪金主力收 | 1108.8 元/克，涨幅 | | 金 | 4.2%；沪银主力收 22393 元/千克，涨幅 5.93%。 | | | 属 | 基本面：美联储理事米兰称今年需要降息不止 100 | 个基点；美国众议院批准政府融资法案，将结束局部停摆； | | | 伊朗炮艇逼近挂美国旗油轮、接近美航母的伊无人机被美击落，原油跳涨。国内黄金 | ETF 流入 4.8 吨，COMEX | | | 黄金库存为 1107.9 吨，-4 吨；上期所黄金库存为 103.0 吨，维持不变，SPDR | 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1087.1 吨， | | | 维持不变；COMEX 白银库存为 12617.5 吨，-6 吨；上期所白银库存为 449.7 | 吨，-13 吨；iShares 白银 ETF | | | 持仓为 16546 吨，+1023 吨；金交所白银上周库存 504.5 吨，-1 吨；伦敦 ...