Report Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Views - Gold: After the US and Japan reached an agreement and the US and Europe were close to a 15% tariff deal, the gold price rose and then fell. The domestic commodity sentiment cooled, and the downward pressure on the gold price increased. However, the premium of Shanghai gold expanded, and the support for Shanghai gold remained despite the RMB appreciation. The overall situation is neutral, with some bullish and bearish factors coexisting [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price also rose and then fell after the agreements. Although the domestic commodity sentiment cooled, the silver price still had support and remained relatively strong. The overall situation is also neutral, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US and Japan reached an agreement, and the US and Europe were close to a 15% tariff deal. The US stock market rose, the US bond yield increased, the US dollar index fell, and the RMB appreciated. The COMEX gold futures fell 1.34% to $3397.50 per ounce. The domestic commodity sentiment cooled, and the gold price rose and then fell [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price rose and then fell. The COMEX silver futures fell 0.09% to $39.52 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was -4.4, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory of gold futures was 28,857 kilograms and remained unchanged, also bearish. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position was long, but the long positions of the main players decreased, which is bullish [5]. - Silver: The basis was -38, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 10,564 kilograms to 1,188,482 kilograms, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position was long, but the long positions of the main players decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3. Today's Focus - There are multiple events to watch, including the preliminary GDP data of South Korea in the second quarter, the preliminary PMI data of Japan, Europe, and the US in July, the visits of European leaders to China, and the discussions of the New Zealand central bank on global tariffs and inflation [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation is neutral. The bullish factors include global turmoil, high - risk aversion, rising stagflation expectations in the US, and tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. The bearish factors include the end of the interest - rate cut cycle, improved economic expectations, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [10]. - Silver: The fundamental situation is also neutral. The bullish factors are similar to those of gold, and the bearish factors also include the end of the interest - rate cut cycle, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [13][14]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold increased by 5.55% to 222,660, the short positions increased by 10.31% to 68,052, and the net position increased by 3.59% to 154,608 [31]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver decreased by 2.17% to 456,195, the short positions decreased by 0.57% to 370,832, and the net position decreased by 8.55% to 85,363 [32]. - ETF: The SPDR gold ETF position increased slightly, and the silver ETF position increased significantly and was higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - Warehouse Receipts: The COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased and remained at a high level, while the Shanghai gold warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease but were higher than the same period last year, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [39][42].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will maintain its assessment of the economy as growing at a "solid pace," with a robust labor market and slightly elevated inflation [2][3]. Economic Assessment - The Federal Reserve is expected to emphasize the risks associated with its dual mandate of employment and inflation [2]. - Recent indicators show that U.S. economic activity continues to grow steadily, with a low unemployment rate and a slight increase in inflation [2]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 2.2% annualized growth rate for Q2 GDP, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts 2.4% and the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates 1.7% [2]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market remains in good condition, with employment growth slowing but the unemployment rate unchanged compared to 12 months ago [2][11]. - Employment growth is expected to slow from an average of 130,000 jobs per month in the first half of 2025 to about 50,000 jobs per month in 2026 [11]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Inflation is described as "slightly high," with June's CPI report reflecting new price pressures from tariffs [2][5]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that tariffs will lead to a rise in overall and core PCE price indices, reaching 3.0% and 3.2% respectively by 2025 [5]. - Core PCE inflation is expected to peak at an annualized rate of 4.1% by the end of Q3 2025 before declining [5]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the target federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% until March 2026, with potential rate cuts of 25 basis points at subsequent meetings [11]. - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to delay rate cuts but suggests that the magnitude of cuts may exceed market expectations [11]. Trade and Economic Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies continues to pose risks to the Fed's dual mandate [4]. - Fed Chair Powell is expected to acknowledge the pressures from tariffs and emphasize the ongoing uncertainty in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies [4].

日本央行副行长内田真一：预计在中长期通胀预期再次加速之前，通胀预期将经历一段放缓期。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Gold: Powell's fake resignation letter caused a stir, the US-Japan agreement may be reached, and gold prices continued to rise. The risk - preference increased, but the gold price still went up due to high Fed rate - cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai gold converged to - 2.3 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment did not heat up [4]. - Silver: With the domestic commodity boom, Shanghai silver continued to hit a record high. The high Fed rate - cut expectations and the commodity upsurge supported the silver price. The premium of Shanghai silver slightly expanded to about 380 yuan/kg, and the domestic sentiment heated up [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US stock indices closed mixed, European stock indices closed mixed, US bond yields declined across the board (10 - year US bond yield fell 3.17 basis points to 4.344%), the US dollar index dropped 0.49% to 97.36, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.10% to $3444.00 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US and European stock indices closed mixed, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.83% to $39.66 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Hints - **Gold**: The basis was - 4.29 (spot at a discount to futures, bearish); the inventory of gold futures remained unchanged at 28,857 kg (bearish); the 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (neutral); the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 36 (spot at a discount to futures, neutral); the warehouse receipts of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 5,420 kg to 1,199,046 kg (neutral); the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish); the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 09:30: Speech by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi - 10:00: Press conference on Hainan Free Trade Port construction - Time TBD: Precision Manufacturing Forum for Humanoid Robots from July 23 - 25 - Time TBD: 2025 OpenAtom Open - Source Ecosystem Conference - Time TBD: 24th China Internet Conference from July 23 - 25 - Time TBD: First Shanghai International Low - Altitude Economy Expo from July 23 - 26 - Time TBD: Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru hosts EU - Japan annual summit - 22:00: US existing home sales in June, preliminary reading of Eurozone consumer confidence index in July - Time TBD: US President Trump's speech on "Winning the AI Race" [15] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation was neutral. The Fed rate - cut expectations were high, and the commodity upsurge supported the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold converged, and the domestic sentiment did not heat up [4]. - **Silver**: The domestic commodity boom led to Shanghai silver hitting a record high. The high Fed rate - cut expectations and the commodity upsurge supported the silver price, and the domestic sentiment heated up [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, and the main long position decreased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 2.46% to 210,949, the short position decreased by 1.35% to 61,692, and the net position increased by 4.12% to 149,257 [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, and the main long position decreased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 0.25% to 466,291, the short position increased by 1.38% to 372,943, and the net position decreased by 6.26% to 93,348 [32].

Group 1 - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him a "dummy" for maintaining high interest rates, which he believes are detrimental to the economy [2] - Trump stated that Powell will leave his position in eight months, specifically by mid-March, although it is unclear why this timeframe was chosen [2] - Economists warned that efforts to push the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy could backfire, potentially leading to rising inflation expectations [2] Group 2 - Trump emphasized that the economy is strong, but high interest rates are making housing unaffordable for many [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve lowering policy rates by 1 percentage point last year, mortgage rates have increased, following the rise in U.S. Treasury yields [3] - Concerns were raised about the Federal Reserve's mission being misaligned, with criticism directed at the spending on new buildings and renovations [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the recent market risk appetite remains high and the US signals on tariff negotiations are optimistic, with the upcoming tariff deferral period in early August, gold is expected to gradually return to the safe - haven logic in the short term, but the rise may be slow due to the strong US economic data and the post - poned Fed rate - cut expectation to September. It is recommended to buy on dips. For silver, while the recovery of risk appetite benefits its industrial attributes, there is a risk of weakening in the medium - term real demand, so cautious chasing of gains is advised [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, considering the ongoing trade war, the probability of Fed rate cuts this year, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, the center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Precious Metals - **Precious Metal Prices**: On July 21, 2025, London gold spot was at $3367.28/ounce, London silver spot at $38.30/ounce, COMEX gold at $3374.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $38.60/ounce. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding values. Compared with July 18, the price of London gold spot increased by 0.8%, London silver spot decreased by 0.1%, etc. [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On July 21, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 2.02 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 14 yuan/kg. Compared with July 18, the changes in price spreads and ratios varied, such as the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increasing by 1.0% [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX and ETF Positions**: As of July 15, 2025 (weekly data), for COMEX gold, non - commercial long positions were 270227 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 57112 contracts, and the net long position was 213115 contracts. For gold ETF - SPDR, the position on July 18 was 943.62 tons, a decrease of 0.51% compared with July 17 [3] - **Inventory Data**: On July 21, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28857 kg, with no change compared with July 18; SHFE silver inventory was 1204466 kg, a decrease of 0.55% compared with July 18 [3] 3.3 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: On July 21, 2025, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the US dollar index was 98.46, etc. Compared with July 18, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.03%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.18%, etc. [4] 3.4 Market News and Analysis - **Economic Data**: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in July was 61.8, higher than the expected 61.5. The preliminary value of the 1 - year inflation expectation was 4.4%, lower than the expected 5% [4] - **Policy and Geopolitical News**: US President Trump is promoting a minimum tariff increase of 15% - 20% on all EU goods. The LDP in Japan suffered a historic defeat in the Senate election, but Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said he would continue to govern [4]

星展银行与新加坡管理大学联合调查表明，尽管面临不确定性，新加坡通胀预期已降至2021年12月以来 最低水平，释放出积极企稳信号。6月份未来一年整体通胀预期从3月的3.8%降至3.5%。（新华财经） ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美元走低，贸易担忧再起，降息预期高涨，金价走高；美国三大股指收 盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率全线走低，10年期美债收益 率跌3.38个基点报4.3757%；美元指数跌0.64%报97.83，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值 报7.1810；COMEX黄金期货涨1.55%报3410.30美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注国新办发布会、人社部二季度新闻发布会、美联储主席鲍威尔及 委员讲话。国内风险偏好改善，贸易担忧再起，降息预期高涨，美元走弱，金价震 荡收涨。沪金溢价收敛至-1.1元/ ...

加拿大央行调查：五年期通胀预期已从第一季度的3.39%上升至3.45%。 ...

Group 1 - The core theme for 2025 is the weakness of the US dollar, which has shown its worst performance since 1973 in the first half of this year [1] - The performance of US Treasury bonds has also been poor, with a noticeable slowdown in capital inflow during periods of heightened uncertainty [1] - In contrast, demand for gold ETFs has significantly increased, with total assets under management (AUM) rising by 41% to $383 billion, and total holdings increasing by 397 tons to 3,616 tons, marking the highest level since August 2022 [1] Group 2 - As of July 18, spot gold closed at $3,350.05, showing slight fluctuations, with a "deep V" pattern reflecting intensified market dynamics [1] - Economic data has been strong, suppressing rate cut expectations and boosting the dollar, while tariff policies have raised inflation expectations, driving investors to allocate to gold for risk hedging [1] - Gold is currently at a balance point between short-term economic strength and long-term inflation concerns, highlighting its safe-haven value [1] Group 3 - Recent reports indicate that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin privately advised President Trump against attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting potential rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year [2]