这篇经济评论分析美日货币政策调整下，中国资产机遇在哪？未来两周全球金融市场注定不平静，日本要启动加息，美国则敲定了降息计划，两大经济体的 动作势必搅动全球流动性，普通人最关心的，还是这些变动会如何影响手里的资产。 美日货币"双响炮"：这次为啥不用慌？ 2024年7月底日本那次加息，至今让不少投资者心有余悸，当天日经指数直接暴跌13%，纳斯达克指数也跟着跌了3.4%，全球股市一片哀嚎。 眼看日本又要加息，市场难免担心噩梦重演，过去两年日本总共完成三次加息，2024年7月之后，2025年1月初又加了25个基点，幅度比前次还大，即便如 此，资本市场的反应却温和很多，加息后日经指数只跌了不到1%。 两次影响差别这么大，核心就在于市场预期不一样，2024年7月那次完全超出所有人预料，巨量套息交易瞬间转向，资金疯狂出逃，直接引发恐慌性踩踏。 吃过一次亏的日本央行也学聪明了，后来不管真要加息还是只是试探，都会提前释放信号，就是为了敲打交易员降低杠杆，引导资金多渠道配置。 比如把部分资金从股市转到债市，这样一来市场波动自然就小了，这么操作下来，后续加息引发大幅震荡的可能性也大大降低。 这次加息也是老套路，2025年12月1日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in gold and silver prices, influenced by U.S. Treasury yields and the strength of the U.S. dollar, alongside expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Gold Market Insights - On December 9, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.1670%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.5810% [1][4]. - Spot gold experienced a decline of 0.15%, closing at $4190.68 per ounce, after initially dropping by $30 [1][4]. - Spot silver fell by 0.25%, ending at $58.15 per ounce [1][4]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have differing opinions on upcoming decisions, but there is a consensus that a 25 basis point rate cut is expected with a probability of about 100% [1][4]. Gold Price Trends - The gold market opened at $4197.4 per ounce, reached a high of $4219.1, and then fell to a low of $4175.9 before closing at $4190.7 [5][6]. - The daily candlestick formed a spinning top pattern, indicating potential for further price movement [6]. - The market is currently under pressure but remains within a trading range, with resistance levels at $4200-$4220 and support levels at $4175-$4160 [6]. Nasdaq Index Insights - The Nasdaq index opened at $25730.39, dipped to $25661.88, peaked at $25824.35, and then fell to a low of $25525.84, closing at $25666.78 [2][6]. - The daily candlestick also formed a spinning top pattern, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend [6]. - Despite a drop from recent highs, there are signs of stabilization, with resistance levels at $25739-$25850 and support levels at $25620-$25500 [6].

黄金上周冲高跳水后，昨天围绕4200盘旋调整后，再次上演跳水，一跌就是40美金，整体不改震荡格 局，继续争夺4200的关口。 昨天4198，再次空单获利。 今天的走势 昨天接连下探4200后，上演跳水。 今天直接回升，又不断上摸4200的关口。 上方再破，反弹再看4242关键阻力。 当然了，再测试4200的关口。 此位置上方接连弹起，也是重要的强支撑。 昨天黄金震荡收窄后下破，或不排除下方回调。 继续争夺4200关口，震荡整理不变。 下方若跌穿4163，看大的回调，下探4110的支撑。 不破4200，下方遇阻，再探4163的低位。 黄金11月收官，多头一路狂飙后，卡在了4200附近，连续几个回合上蹿下跳。潮起潮落，多空激烈博 弈。两股势力均衡，随着横盘的持续，多空力量积蓄，再次爆发，上下空间不断拉大，上看4300上方， 下方可看向4100的区域。 操作方面，黄金整体多头下的调整，依然看反弹的机会，关注4163和4110做多的机会。此外，黄金短期 内，继续横盘整理，关注4200和4242做空的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，美物价降温，以及特朗普幕僚的接连施压，两大压力之下，美联储主席候选人成为了发言人， 强调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with a general expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, but the tone of the monetary policy statement and dot plot will be crucial for future market direction [1][2] Group 1: Market Expectations - The probability of a rate cut has surged from 66% last month to 90% currently, indicating strong market expectations for a dovish path [2] - If the Federal Reserve emphasizes economic resilience or persistent inflation during the rate cut, it may lead to a "hawkish cut," potentially keeping gold prices under pressure [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic data, including the U.S. employment report and JOLTS job openings data, will be released before the rate decision, particularly focusing on hiring trends from September to October [2] Group 3: Global Uncertainties - Global geopolitical uncertainties are providing potential support for gold prices, as tensions between countries increase the appeal of safe-haven assets [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have faced resistance above $4250 and are currently in a slight correction phase, with market participants awaiting policy guidance [3] - The MACD indicator shows diminishing momentum, suggesting a potential short-term bearish trend, with critical support at $4180 and possible declines to the $4155-$4120 range if broken [3] - Conversely, if the Federal Reserve signals further easing, gold prices could aim for the $4220-$4250 resistance zone [3][4]

Group 1: Gold Market - The CME's "FedWatch" tool indicates an 86.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, suggesting that a rate cut is almost certain [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is significant as Powell's term nears its end, with inflation remaining stubbornly above the 2% target set by the Fed since its peak in 2021, while signs of a weakening labor market are emerging [2] - Analyst Owen from Baillieau highlights that gold volatility is expected to increase as the Fed meeting approaches, indicating a need to be cautious of risks [2] - Technically, gold has been fluctuating within the $4180-$4240 range, with the adjustment phase nearing its end, and a potential shift to a unilateral movement is likely this week, focusing on the $4214 line as a key pivot [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Ongoing ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are a focal point for the oil market, with unresolved disputes over security guarantees for Kyiv and Russian-occupied territories [4] - A breakthrough in ceasefire talks could ease U.S. energy sanctions on Russia, potentially allowing over 2 million barrels per day of Russian oil back into the market, which would put downward pressure on oil prices; however, damage to Russian oil facilities has somewhat alleviated concerns [4] - The U.S. continues to apply pressure on Venezuela to overthrow the Maduro government, while G7 and EU may impose new sanctions on Russian oil exports, complicating the supply side of the oil market [4] - Overall, concerns about oversupply dominate, limiting the potential for oil price increases [4] - Technically, oil prices fell significantly from the $60 level on December 8, with the upward structure being disrupted, indicating a higher probability of further declines; support is noted at $58.40, with a drop below that level targeting $57 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices continue to maintain an upward trend, with strong bullish momentum; the hourly chart shows a solid upward structure, indicating a high probability of further increases [6] - Key support is noted at $5.31, with potential upward movement targeting the $5.42 level [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has been on an upward trend after stabilizing around the 48000 level over the past two weeks, currently holding above 50200, suggesting a high probability of further increases [6] - Support is noted at 50350, with a breakthrough above 51500 potentially accelerating upward movement [6]

Market Overview - On December 8, US stock markets showed a weak and fluctuating trend, with all three major indices experiencing slight declines. The Dow Jones fell by 215.67 points, a decrease of 0.45%, closing at 47,739.32 points. The Nasdaq dropped by 0.14% to 23,545.90 points, while the S&P 500 index decreased by 0.35% to 6,846.51 points [1] Individual Stock Performance - In the technology sector, there was a notable divergence. Tesla's stock fell by over 3%, and Google's stock declined by more than 2%. Conversely, Broadcom's stock rose by over 3% to reach a historical high, buoyed by the approval from President Trump for NVIDIA to export H200 AI chips to China. NVIDIA, Oracle, and Microsoft all saw increases of over 1% [2] Chinese Stocks in the US - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 0.08%, with mixed performance among popular Chinese stocks listed in the US. Huya surged by over 7%, while Daqo New Energy and Century Internet both rose by over 4%. Baidu and Miniso saw increases of over 3%. Notably, Legend Biotech's stock skyrocketed by over 102% following the announcement of a mid-stage clinical trial showing a weight reduction of 11.3% for its obesity treatment candidate [3] Federal Reserve Meeting Expectations - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its December monetary policy meeting on December 9-10, with the latest interest rate decision to be announced on December 11. Despite a sharp decline in the probability of a rate cut due to missing key economic data and strong divisions among Fed officials, the market is increasingly leaning towards a likely 25 basis point rate cut during this meeting [3] Potential Scenarios for Rate Cut - Analysts from Dongwu Securities suggest two potential scenarios for the Fed's December meeting: a dovish rate cut of 25 basis points to support a weak labor market, which may signal a more significant economic slowdown than expected, or a hawkish rate cut with strong guidance on future policy rates, potentially increasing market volatility. The upcoming meeting is anticipated to be one of the most contentious in recent years, with investors awaiting clearer signals on future policy direction [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the Fed meeting, with a strong earnings season recently concluded and the next earnings report not due for another four weeks. The market is primarily focused on the Fed's actions. Analysts predict that if the Fed does not cut rates for any specific reason, the market could decline by 2% to 3% [4]

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货21910，基差-365，贴水期货，偏空。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨8353吨至123630吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡向上运行 近期利多利空分析 降息和需求疲软博弈 利多： 利空： 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 | 地方 地方 上海 ...

欧洲股市在周一出现微幅下跌，主要股指表现平淡。斯托克600指数收盘下跌0.2%，投资者对即将召开 的美联储政策会议保持谨慎观望态度。 市场普遍预期美联储将在本周的货币政策会议上宣布降息25个基点。据芝商所美联储观察工具显示，交 易员目前定价12月降息的概率约为85%。这一预期为全球金融市场带来不确定性，促使投资者在重要决 议前采取观望策略。 科技股和金融股成为欧洲股市的主要拖累因素。与此同时，旅游与休闲板块以及矿业板块表现相对较 好。个股方面，诺和诺德股价下跌5.8%，此前该公司宣布其口服版药物在阿尔茨海默病研究中未能达 到预期效果。 货币市场方面，美元在美联储会议前走低，欧元需求有所上升。投资者正在为本周多家全球央行的关键 决策做准备，其中美联储会议被视为最重要的事件。 金融监管政策的调整为市场带来新的流动性预期。相关部门下调了保险资金投资股票的风险因子，这释 放出增量资金入市的积极信号。 展望后市，分析师认为美联储的政策决定将为全球货币政策定下基调。瑞士央行、英国央行、欧洲央行 和日本央行在12月下旬的政策路径可能受到美联储决议结果的影响。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供 ...

*三大股指走低，道指跌超215点； *中长期美债收益率上扬，2年期美债逼近3.60%关口； *特斯拉跌超3%，摩根士丹利下调公司评级。 周一美国三大股指收跌，美国国债收益率走高打压市场情绪，投资者正紧张等待两天后美联储的货币政 策更新。 截至收盘，道指跌215.67点，跌幅0.45%，报47739.32点，纳指跌0.14%，报23545.90点，标普500指数跌 0.35%，报6846.51点。 【热门股表现】 明星科技股分化，英伟达涨1.7%，甲骨文涨1.3%，市场看好这家人工智能新贵最新财报，苹果跌 0.3%，Meta跌1.0%，亚马逊跌1.1%，谷歌跌2.1%，公司计划于2026年在Gemini平台上推出广告。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.08%，百度涨3.5%，京东涨0.1%，阿里巴巴跌0.1%，网易跌2.1%。 【市场概述】 上周公布的数据显示三季度末美国消费者支出物价指数PCE温和增长，进一步巩固了市场对12月降息的 预期。不过，外界预计本次美联储会议将是多年来分歧最严重的一次，投资者仍在等待有关未来政策动 向的线索。 蒙特利尔银行私人财富首席市场策略师施莱夫（Carol Schleif）表示："在 ...

美东时间12月8日，市场等待本年度美联储最后一次利率政策决议，投资者态度谨慎，美股三大指数集体收跌。 盘面上，大型科技股大多下跌，谷歌A跌2.29%，亚马逊跌1.15%，Meta跌0.98%，苹果跌0.32%，而微软收涨1.63%，英伟达涨1.73%。 | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 185.575 | 1.73% | | --- | --- | --- | | NVDA.O | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT | 491.020 | 1.63% | | MSFT.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 277.890 | -0.32% | | AAPL.O | | | | 脸书(META PLATF | 666.800 | -0.98% | | META.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 226.890 | -1.15% | | AMZN.O | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET) | 313.720 | -2.29% | | GOOGL.O | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 439.580 | -3.39% | | TSLA.O | | | 派拉蒙千亿美元恶意收购后 奈飞 ...