Group 1 - The discussion regarding Powell's position has subsided, but concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve remain prevalent in the market and investment community [1][5][6] - Recent strong economic data, including rising retail sales and declining unemployment claims, have led to a positive outlook for U.S. corporate earnings, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate cut in July [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is undergoing a significant renovation of its buildings, which has drawn criticism regarding rising costs and has been linked to discussions about Powell's potential dismissal [3][4] Group 2 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is legally protected, and the President cannot dismiss the Fed Chair without just cause, despite political pressures for rate cuts [4][5] - The U.S. government is under pressure to manage its substantial debt, with rising bond yields exacerbating concerns about fiscal sustainability [4][5] - Powell's commitment to maintaining a 2% inflation target and full employment reflects a stable policy approach, which is crucial for market expectations [5][6]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Legislation - The U.S. House of Representatives passed three cryptocurrency-related bills, including the Clarity Act and the Genius Act, aimed at significant regulatory reform for cryptocurrencies [3] - The Genius Act received 308 votes in favor and 122 against, and is expected to be signed into law by President Trump [3] - The Clarity Act, which aims to establish a broader regulatory framework for digital assets, passed with 294 votes in favor and 134 against and will be reviewed by the Senate [3] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - On July 17, U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.52% at 44,484.49 points, the S&P 500 up 0.54% at 6,297.36 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.74% at 20,884.27 points, marking new historical highs for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [6] - Major technology stocks saw gains, with the U.S. Tech Giants Index rising by 0.52% [7] - Notable stock performances included Microsoft up 1.2%, Nvidia up 0.95%, and Google up 0.51% [8] Group 3: Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 1.23% and the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index up 0.79% [11] - Leading stocks included JD.com up 3.32%, Pinduoduo up 2.70%, and Meituan up 2.21% [11] - Some stocks experienced declines, such as Hesai Technology down over 8% and Ctrip down over 1% [11] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials anticipate two interest rate cuts this year, with current inflation expected to remain between 3% and 3.5% [13] - Economic growth is projected at about 1% for the year, with an expected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5% by year-end [13] - Officials noted that tariffs could increase inflation by about 1 percentage point in the latter part of 2025 and into 2026 [13]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Education issued a study abroad warning for 2025, highlighting security concerns in the Philippines due to rising crime against Chinese citizens [1] - Students planning to study in the Philippines are advised to conduct safety risk assessments and enhance their awareness of potential dangers [1]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a rate cut this month to support a weakening labor market, marking a significant divergence from most of his colleagues who believe the job market remains strong [1][3][4] - Waller's speech emphasizes that inflation is near target levels and that the risks of a labor market deterioration warrant a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [3][4] - He identifies a precarious balance in the labor market, supported by both hard data (employment numbers, unemployment rates) and soft data (business hiring intentions, consumer confidence) [3][4] Group 2 - Waller and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman are the only two Fed officials publicly supporting a rate cut this month, highlighting their minority position among those advocating for maintaining current rates [4] - Waller has previously held differing views from colleagues, particularly regarding the temporary impact of tariffs on inflation, and he stresses the need to focus on core inflation, which is close to the FOMC's 2% target [4][5] - Despite recent data showing that tariffs have begun to raise some prices, core inflation has remained below expectations for five consecutive months, alleviating concerns about persistent inflation [4][5] Group 3 - Waller warns that the risks of a weakening job market are significant enough to justify a rate cut, noting that while the economy is still growing, momentum has slowed considerably [5] - Other Fed officials express caution regarding the potential impacts of tariffs, suggesting a wait-and-see approach before deciding on rate cuts [5] - Market reactions indicate that investors expect the Fed to maintain rates this month, with a slightly higher than 50% probability of a rate cut in September, reflecting cautious sentiment amid internal Fed disagreements [5] Group 4 - Waller is considered a potential candidate to succeed Powell as Fed Chair after his term ends in May, and his current stance aligns with President Trump's calls for looser monetary policy, adding a political dimension to his economic views [6]

美联储理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）在纽约一场活动中明确表示，美联储7月降息25个基点是合理的选择，理由是在通胀接近目标且上行风险有限的情况下，美联储不应等到劳动力市场恶化后才降息。🗒️沃勒是继副主席鲍曼以外第二位公开支持7月降息的美联储官员，而且也是媒体预期的美联储主席候选人之一。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller expresses a desire to provide slightly more stimulus through interest rate cuts [1] - Evidence suggests that the neutral interest rate is not far from 3% [1] - There has been no discussion with the Trump administration regarding the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that further interest rate cuts may be necessary if core inflation remains controlled and economic growth continues to be weak [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Indicators - Core inflation must remain under control for the potential of further rate cuts to be considered [1] - Economic growth is currently described as lackluster, which influences the decision-making process regarding interest rates [1] Monetary Policy - The statement suggests a proactive approach to monetary policy, indicating that the Federal Reserve is prepared to adjust interest rates in response to economic conditions [1]

美联储理事沃勒：推迟降息可能会增加未来采取更激进措施的风险。 ...

美联储的利率决断：在通胀与增长之间走钢丝 美联储内部对于货币政策的走向也存在明显分歧。6月会议纪要显示，美联储内部对降息的意见并不统一。特朗普任命的两位官员——美联储理事沃勒和鲍 曼均表示支持7月降息；芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比，这位曾经的"鸽派"代表，如今也立场动摇，他坦言："最新一轮关税措施可能会引发新的通胀担忧，这可 能迫使美联储在获得更明确的信息前维持观望态度。"他同时警告，反复无常的政策给价格走势带来了不确定性。 美联储面临的挑战远不止经济数据本身。特朗普公开批评美联储利率"至少偏高3个百分点"，并声称利率每高一个百分点，每年就会给美国增加3600亿美元 的再融资成本。更令人担忧的是，特朗普甚至曾暗示可能解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，尽管他随后否认了这一计划。财政部长贝森特在回应鲍威尔可能辞职的传 闻时表示："若前美联储主席继续留任理事会，对市场而言可能会非常混乱。"这番话被解读为对鲍威尔职位的隐晦施压，美联储的独立性正面临严峻考验。 在总统公开施压、高层人事动荡的阴影下，市场担忧政治因素可能进一步干扰美联储的政策判断。 这出"悬念剧"的导火索是7月17日发布的美联储《褐皮书》（Beige Book）。这份被誉 ...

美联储戴利：（被问及七月降息的可能性时）这是个错误的问题。7月还是9月降息并不是最关键的。 ...