在美国关税2.0、地缘政治博弈加剧与全球经济格局重构的多重背景下，全球资本市场正经历一场前所 未有的资产价格重估。 会议上，刘洋近一步剖析黄金、美债与新兴市场机遇。"黄金的上涨既反映了对财政货币化（MMT）的 担忧，也体现其作为货币替代品的属性。"他指出，长期看，全球债务扩张与地缘政治风险将继续支撑 金价。短期的关税利好驱动的风险偏好回升，可能导致黄金价格的回调，每次回调便是更好的建仓时 机。 对于10年期美债收益率反弹突破4.5%的现象，刘洋分析，这源于通胀预期上调与供需矛盾的双重驱 动。他同时提到，日本央行结束收益率曲线控制（YCC）政策后，日债收益率上升削弱了美债的比较 优势，部分资金回流日本市场。 欧元与欧洲股市方面，刘洋观察到，欧元年内上涨6%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨幅超10%，这一表现与德 国通过重大财政变革以及欧元区经济软着陆预期相关。他建议，投资者可关注欧元计价资产的对冲价 值。 近日，华侨银行中国于上海举办"联动东盟，解锁新机遇"行业观点媒体沟通会，副行长兼环球金融市场 部总经理刘洋深度剖析美元指数年内8%跌幅背后的逻辑，并就美债收益率异动、黄金配置价值、比特 币资本流动效应等市场焦点问题展开 ...

Group 1 - South Korea has a developed steel industry and has been the largest shipbuilding exporter for a long time, particularly strong in the LNG ship sector with multiple related patents [1] - The election of Lee Jae-myung as the new president of South Korea comes at a critical time, as he immediately assumes office due to a previous presidential vacancy [1] - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on imported steel products from South Korea, which is seen as a severe blow to the South Korean steel industry and its exports to the U.S. market [3][5] Group 2 - The 50% tariff on steel imports will significantly impact South Korea's economy, which already faces unprecedented challenges, particularly due to competition from China [5] - The U.S. is not only imposing tariffs on steel but also on automobiles and auto parts, further complicating South Korea's economic situation [5] - The U.S. strategy towards its allies, including South Korea, indicates that it will exert considerable pressure to force concessions, reflecting a tough stance even against allies [8][10]

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market continued to rise, with the ChiNext Index increasing by over 1% and total trading volume slightly expanding to over 1.17 trillion [1] - The recent PMI data from the National Bureau of Statistics and Caixin indicates that both are in the contraction zone, highlighting insufficient demand as a primary issue [1][2] Economic Policy and Trade - U.S. President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, which may create uncertainty for companies in formulating long-term strategies [2] - The domestic steel industry faces short-term cost pressures, but policies like "old for new" may partially offset these challenges [2] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Caixin manufacturing PMI for May recorded 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, marking the first drop below the critical point since October 2024 [2] - Both official and Caixin PMI data are in the contraction zone, with the Caixin data reflecting a more significant decline, likely due to its focus on small and medium-sized enterprises [2] Market Performance - On June 4, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index close at 3376.20 points, up 0.42%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10144.58 points, up 0.87% [3] - Among the sectors, beauty care, comprehensive, and textile apparel led the gains, while transportation, defense, and public utilities experienced declines [3] Capital Flow - The market turnover reached 11,776.08 billion, an increase from the previous trading day, with the margin financing balance reported at 18,044.88 billion, also up from the prior day [4]

Group 1 - The recent U.S.-China trade discussions have seen both sides maintaining communication on economic concerns, particularly regarding U.S. export control measures in the semiconductor sector [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has issued a directive to halt supplies to Chinese clients from several EDA software companies, which are crucial for chip design, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1] - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariffs imposed through executive orders were overreaching, highlighting the ongoing legal and economic ramifications of the trade war [3] Group 2 - The upcoming G20 summit in November may serve as a critical juncture for U.S.-China relations, with potential discussions aimed at resolving trade issues [3] - There is a growing sentiment among U.S. business leaders that the current tariff policies are unpopular, with calls for a return to cooperative and mutually beneficial trade practices [5] - China's proactive diplomatic efforts with various global regions, including Latin America and the EU, suggest a strategic shift in response to U.S. trade policies, enhancing its international economic relationships [7]

Group 1: Impact of Tariff War - The tariff war initiated by Trump has significantly impacted global capital markets, with steel and aluminum tariffs raised from 25% to 50% [1] - The tariff policy has created uncertainty in US-EU trade, leading to concerns about the global trade impact and a decline in the dollar's safe-haven status [1][2] - The US economy faces increased recession risks due to the tariff war, which has also led to a "triple kill" scenario in US stocks, bonds, and currency [1][2] Group 2: Demand for Gold - The demand for gold has surged as investors seek alternatives amid concerns over the dollar's credibility, with central banks increasing their gold reserves [4] - In Q1, global central bank gold purchases reached 290 tons, a 42% year-on-year increase, marking the highest level in nearly two years [4] - China's central bank has consistently increased its gold reserves, reaching a historical high of 72.009 million ounces by the end of May [4] Group 3: Stablecoin Legislation - Recent US legislation aims to promote stablecoin issuance to maintain the dollar's dominance and increase demand for short-term US Treasury bonds [2] - The legislation requires financial institutions issuing stablecoins to allocate a significant portion to US short-term Treasury bonds, alleviating some pressure on bond issuance [2] Group 4: Robotics Industry - The humanoid robotics sector has shown significant growth, with expectations for mass production by 2025, similar to the trajectory of the electric vehicle industry [6][7] - The development of humanoid robots faces technical challenges, particularly in software and operating systems, which need breakthroughs for widespread adoption [6] - Investment in leading stocks or thematic funds in the humanoid robotics sector is seen as a key opportunity for capturing industry growth [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index futures market, tariff fluctuations have resurfaced, and the trading of micro - cap stocks is becoming more crowded. The market lacks a clear main line, and it is recommended to maintain an empty position and wait and see [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, the sentiment direction is unclear. The current covered - call strategy can still be the main position, but attention should be paid to tail risks [2][6]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the bond market sentiment is weak. In the short term, the bond market lacks a clear direction, and the long - end is expected to oscillate with caution [2][7][8]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Current Situation**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and closed higher with the trading volume remaining flat. During the Dragon Boat Festival, tariff issues resurfaced. Trump announced on May 30 that the import steel tariff would be raised from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, causing the A - share market to open lower after the holiday. The adjustment of index components led to the inflow of incremental funds into rural commercial banks, and the bank sector led the rise. The micro - cap stock index reached a new high, and the trading congestion continued to increase [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain an empty position and wait and see [6]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Current Situation**: The underlying market generally rose yesterday, with only the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF slightly falling. The option market turnover decreased by 11.62% compared with the last trading day before the holiday. Indicators of each variety are neutral, and the trading and position - holding structures have small daily changes. The skewness of each variety remains at a high level, and the pricing of out - of - the - money puts is relatively high. Volatility has generally declined and is at the lowest level since the September 2024 market [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold the covered - call strategy [6]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Current Situation**: Yesterday, the central bank's reverse repurchase resulted in a net withdrawal of 37.55 billion yuan. Although the funds at the beginning of the month were generally loose and the fund interest rate declined, the T main contract oscillated weakly. The May Caixin Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, lower than the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.4, but its impact on the market was limited. The possible phone call between the Chinese and US presidents this week has attracted market attention, and the trading volume of treasury bond futures has declined. The stock - bond seesaw effect is also obvious [2][7][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, maintain the view of oscillation; for hedging strategies, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening; for curve strategies, the odds of steepening the curve in the medium term are higher [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - Provides economic data such as the unemployment rate, CPI, and GDP of the Eurozone, as well as employment data in the US for the current week, including previous values, predicted values, and some announced values [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments are organizing the 2025 new - energy vehicle campaign in rural areas, aiming to promote new - energy vehicles in rural areas and integrate with related pilot projects [10]. - During the Dragon Boat Festival from May 31 to June 2, the cross - regional population mobility was 653.7 million person - times, with a daily average of 217.9 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [10]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only mentions the headings of stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but specific data is not provided [11][15][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index futures are rated as "volatile" [1] - Treasury bond futures are rated as "volatile" [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market showed a general upward trend on June 3, 2025, with the Wind All A index rising 0.52% and a trading volume of 1.16 trillion yuan. The consumer and banking sectors were strong, while the real estate upstream and downstream sectors were weak. The economic data in April showed a certain decline compared to March but remained resilient. The social retail sales increased by 5.1% year-on-year, supported by the "trade-in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and the M2 growth rate at 8% year-on-year. The joint statement between China and the United States laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. Recently, the central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policies, and the financial regulatory authorities will promote the entry of long - term funds into the market. These measures are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable rise of stock market valuations [1] - On June 3, 2025, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.03%, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts fell 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively. After the cross - month period, the capital market became looser, and the DR007 decreased by 12BP to 1.55%. In June, the bond market is unlikely to have a trend - following market and will show a sideways volatile pattern [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock index futures**: On June 3, 2025, compared with May 30, 2025, IH rose from 2,667.2 to 2,668.6 (0.05%), IF from 3,822.4 to 3,824.8 (0.06%), IC from 5,627.8 to 5,638.4 (0.19%), and IM from 5,966.0 to 5,998.0 (0.54%) [4] - **Stock indexes**: On June 3, 2025, compared with May 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose from 2,678.7 to 2,687.3 (0.32%), the CSI 300 from 3,840.2 to 3,852.0 (0.31%), the CSI 500 from 5,671.1 to 5,694.8 (0.42%), and the CSI 1000 from 6,026.6 to 6,070.0 (0.72%) [4] - **Treasury bond futures**: On June 3, 2025, compared with May 30, 2025, TS fell from 102.40 to 102.35 (-0.04%), TF from 106.02 to 105.96 (-0.06%), T from 108.73 to 108.69 (-0.04%), and TL rose from 119.41 to 119.45 (0.03%) [4] 3.2 Market News - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down from the previous value of 50.4 [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock index futures**: The report provides the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, IC, and their corresponding basis trends from January 2024 to January 2025 [7][8][11] - **Treasury bond futures**: The report provides the trend charts of Treasury bond futures contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates from 2023 to 2025 [14][16][18] - **Exchange rates**: The report provides the trend charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and the exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen from 2023 to 2025 [21][22][26]

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Civil Aviation Industry Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the civil aviation industry in China, particularly in the context of the U.S.-China trade tensions and tariffs [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of U.S. Tariffs**: The U.S. has imposed tariffs and technology export restrictions on China, particularly affecting the civil aviation sector, which has led to significant attention on the industry [4][10][11]. 2. **Historical Opportunity**: Despite the challenges posed by tariffs and technology restrictions, there is a belief that these circumstances present a historical opportunity for the development of China's civil aviation industry [12][11]. 3. **Tariff Developments**: The U.S. has increased tariffs on Chinese goods, with specific tariffs on aviation-related products, which could lead to increased costs and supply chain disruptions for Chinese manufacturers [15][16][31][53]. 4. **C919 Aircraft Development**: The C919 aircraft's domestic production rate has reached 60%, indicating progress in China's ability to develop its own aviation technology and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers [42][59]. 5. **Supply Chain Challenges**: The civil aviation supply chain in China faces risks due to increased costs from tariffs and potential supply disruptions, particularly from U.S. suppliers [48][54][56]. 6. **Long-term Benefits**: In the long run, the tariffs may accelerate the localization of the supply chain and the development of independent technologies within China's civil aviation sector [60][61][64]. 7. **Export Opportunities**: The conference highlighted recent successful exports of the C919 aircraft to foreign airlines, marking a significant milestone for China's aviation industry [75][79][80]. 8. **Competitive Landscape**: The tariffs may hinder competitors like Boeing and Airbus, potentially allowing Chinese manufacturers to gain market share in the global aviation market [81][82][85]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Technological Self-sufficiency**: The need for China to enhance its technological capabilities and reduce dependency on foreign technology is emphasized as a critical response to the current geopolitical climate [89][91][95]. 2. **Risks and Challenges**: Several risks were identified, including delays in aircraft development, increased competition, high R&D costs, and potential market volatility due to geopolitical factors [116][120][123]. 3. **Global Supply Chain Dynamics**: The discussion pointed out that the global aviation supply chain is undergoing significant changes, with a shift towards more localized production in response to trade tensions [90][98][100]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and implications for the civil aviation industry in China as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both the challenges and opportunities presented by the current geopolitical landscape.

Group 1: Capital Market Overview - Global major asset classes are performing flat, reflecting the difficulty in finding certainty amid weak economic demand [2] - The pause in the tariff war has led to a temporary end to stock market valuation recovery, resulting in an overall calm market [2] - The automotive sector is experiencing adjustments due to inventory buildup and price competition, while sectors like environmental protection and biomedicine have seen some rebounds [2] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - China's PMI data shows signs of stability but indicates a fragile recovery due to weak domestic demand and ongoing trade tensions [3] - The manufacturing PMI in China rose from 49.0% to 49.5%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index decreased slightly to 50.3% [3] - In the U.S., the manufacturing PMI recorded 48.5%, indicating a contraction for the third consecutive month, with most demand and output indicators showing a downward trend [4][5] Group 3: External Shocks - The U.S. has increased steel import tariffs to 50%, which is seen as a step to reduce reliance on China, exacerbating trade tensions [7] - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is expected to prolong the situation and may escalate, impacting global stability and investor sentiment [8] - The emergence of stablecoins is viewed as a potential solution to debt issues, as they can enhance bond purchasing power and may lead to inflationary pressures in the long term [9] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - In the face of increasing uncertainty, a prudent strategy is to remain inactive and conserve resources for future opportunities [10]

Group 1 - The international financial market experienced increased uncertainty following recent events, leading to a surge in gold prices, which rose by 2-3% to over $3,400 [1] - The A-share market showed resilience with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 14 points on the first trading day after the holiday, despite a PMI reading of 49.5 in May, indicating economic contraction [1][3] - The real estate market's ongoing downturn is a significant factor, with sales from the top 100 real estate companies declining by 10.8% year-on-year from January to May, and a 17.3% drop in May alone [3] Group 2 - The market's upward movement is primarily driven by institutional investors, making it challenging for retail investors to benefit from the index rise [5] - The concentration of institutional control in the market means that retail investors have limited visibility into the underlying dynamics, akin to a card game where only the dealer sees all players' cards [5][7] - The emergence of quantitative models allows for better tracking of institutional trading behaviors, providing retail investors with insights into market movements [7][9] Group 3 - Special attention should be given to "strong recovery" and "strong sell-off" states, as they indicate potential turning points in trading dynamics [10] - The "instant inventory" data, which recently dropped to over 2,100 companies, serves as a warning signal; a drop below 2,000 would indicate a loss of institutional interest in over half of the stocks [13]