Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the impact of recent U.S. trade policies and economic indicators on the gold market, indicating a complex interplay between short-term pressures and long-term safe-haven demand [2][3] - President Trump signed an executive order to alleviate tariff impacts on automakers, while the U.S. Commerce Secretary revealed a secret trade agreement, aiming to reduce market anxiety [2] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a historical high of $162 billion in March, potentially dragging down Q1 GDP by nearly 2 percentage points, raising concerns about economic performance [2] Group 2 - The consumer confidence index fell to a five-year low in April, and job openings dropped by 288,000 in March, signaling economic weakness [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its Q1 GDP forecast to a contraction of 0.8%, reflecting growing pessimism among economists [2] - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices, the long-term safe-haven logic remains intact, as indicated by David Meger, who noted that the recent price correction is merely technical [2] Group 3 - Current gold T+D prices are at 780.88 yuan per gram, with a decline of 0.49%, and trading has seen a high of 786.00 yuan and a low of 779.65 yuan [3] - Resistance levels for gold are observed at 835-840 yuan, while support is seen at 760-765 yuan [3]

大类资产配置建议表 | | 大类资产 | 月度趋势 | | 配置建议(未来６个月) | | | 配置变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 高配 中高配 | 标配 | 中低配 | 低配 | | | 汇率 | 美元 | 震荡 | | O | | | 下调 | | | 欧元 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | 上调 | | | 人民币 | 偏弱震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 日元 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 英镑 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 中国国债 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 中国信用债 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | 固收 | 可转债 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 美元债 | 偏强震荡 | ● | O | | | | | | A 股 | 震荡 | | | | | | | | 一消费 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 一周期 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 一成长 | 震荡 | | O | | | | | 权益 | ...

自特朗普总统4月2日宣布加征关税后大跌以来，美股几乎收复了所有失地。但华尔街策略师并不相信股 市会继续走高。 Truist联席首席信息官Keith Lerner周一在给客户的一份报告中写道："与(市场)低点不同，市场目前消化 的'坏消息'要少得多，而目前的前景仍高度不确定，如果市场收到一些坏消息，缓冲空间就会减少。" 自4月8日美股触底以来，标普500指数上涨了11.5%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了约14.4%，道琼斯工业平 均指数上涨了约7.7%。4月9日，特朗普总统暂停关税为期90天，引发了股市上涨。但股市自那以来一 路走高，股票策略师指出，市场叙事并没有太大变化。 关税政策的不确定性依然很高，企业盈利的前景仍是一片混乱。经济学家认为，美国经济衰退的可能性 一直在上升。这可能意味着，在另一个催化剂出现之前，股市不会有太大的上涨空间。 摩根士丹利首席投资官Mike Wilson周日在致客户的报告中称，他预计标普500指数近期将在5000 - 5500 点区间交投。Wilson认为，与中国达成一项"实质性"降低实际关税税率的关税协议，可能是推动该指数 在5500点上方持续一段时间所需要的。美联储的降息——假设降息 ...

Group 1 - The market narrative is expected to oscillate between recession and stagflation until trade issues are resolved, the Federal Reserve begins to ease policies, or inflationary pressures fail to build [1] - Investors are increasingly concerned about the economic growth outlook, leading to expectations of declining yields [1] - BMO Capital Markets analyst Ian Lyngen expresses concerns about further weakening economic data in the short term [1] Group 2 - HSBC strategists, including Nicole Inui, highlight the need for clarity on economic conditions to stabilize market expectations [1]

南方财经全媒体记者 李依农 上海报道 达拉斯联储商业活动指数显著下跌 最新公布的数据显示，美国4月达拉斯联储商业活动指数大幅下滑至-35.8，创下自2020年5月新冠疫情 高峰以来的最低水平。相比市场预期的-14.1和前值-16.3，这一数字的显著恶化，意味着企业对未来经 济环境的悲观情绪正迅速升温。 美国的文化里，游说是一种合法的商业行为。但对中小企业来说，往往没有足够资源去组织一个有影响 力的游说团队，这需要很强的实力。因此我认为，这轮影响对大型财团和特大型企业来说其实不会特别 大，真正感受到压力的是中小企业，尤其是小微企业，以及最低收入的20%人群。 美国2025年GDP增速或仅为0.5% 与此同时，高盛发布的最新研报也对美国经济增长前景敲响了警钟。高盛预计，受贸易紧张局势和高关 税影响，美国2025年GDP增速可能仅为0.5%，其中关税因素单独就带来了近2个百分点的负面冲击。尽 管短期数据尚可，但真正的压力可能在5到6月开始集中释放。 如何看待美国当前的经济形势？滞后效应将会如何演变？我们来听听方德证券高级分析师廖偲琴的解 读。 在美国特朗普政府的关税措施冲击下，企业高管们用"混乱"和"疯狂"来形容当 ...

金价回调，未来还会大涨吗？多家券商表示，中长期仍有上涨空间。 足金饰品破1000元/克，今年一季度黄金企业和珠宝企业都赚翻了吗？并不是，有的大亏。 多家券商：中长期看涨黄金 4月22日国际金价突破3500美元/盎司，创历史新高，此后几天震荡下行。截至4月29日15:12，伦敦金现 报3312.64美元/盎司。金价震荡，后续怎么走？券商分析师纷纷发表观点。 金价虽然上涨，处于下游的金饰企业一季度业绩却涨跌不一。潮宏基实现归母净利润为1.89亿元，同比 增长44.38%；菜百股份实现归母净利润3.20亿元，同比增长17.32%。谈及业绩增长，在一季报中，潮宏 基表示，主要得益于市场需求回暖及销售策略的有效实施。菜百股份则表示，主要得益于消费市场热度 提升及消费者偏好变化带来的销售收入增加。 同期，多家金饰企业业绩下滑，包括周大生、老凤祥这两大品牌，营收和净利润双双下滑。 周大生表示，主要原因是金价高企抑制了黄金消费，下游客户补货需求不足，导致销售下降。周大生还 提及，"黄金类产品营业收入下降53.15%，加盟业务收入下降58.63%。" 华龙证券研报指出，尽管黄金价格冲高至3500美元后回落震荡，但包括中国在内的 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the impact of increased tariffs on products like Tiger Balm, which is primarily produced in China and distributed in the U.S. This could lead to a significant price increase for consumers [1] - The U.S. government has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, which is expected to result in an additional tariff cost of $3 million to $5 million for Tiger Balm this year [1] - The article notes a trend of American consumers rapidly purchasing Chinese-made goods before they become more expensive, indicating a reaction to the tariff situation [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the broader implications of tariffs on consumer goods in the U.S., with prices for items like furniture increasing by 27% due to tariffs [3] - It mentions that the new tariffs could lead to a significant economic impact, with an estimated annual revenue increase of $737.4 billion from tariffs, but a GDP loss of $1.2 trillion due to reduced consumer spending [3] - The trade structure between the U.S. and China shows that the U.S. primarily imports consumer goods, while China imports intermediate goods, indicating a potential imbalance in trade dependencies [3] Group 3 - The article reports a significant reduction in China's purchases of U.S. pork, with a decrease of 12,000 tons in one week, marking the lowest weekly delivery volume of the year [5] - It also notes a decline in soybean purchases from the U.S., with only 1,800 tons bought in the same week, reflecting a trend of reduced imports from China [5] - The article emphasizes China's stance against U.S. tariffs, advocating for multilateral trade systems and expressing a commitment to high-level openness and win-win cooperation [5][8] Group 4 - The article concludes with a statement on China's ability to counter U.S. provocations and its strategy to mitigate the negative impacts of U.S. tariffs through domestic demand expansion and market diversification [8] - It asserts that the trade war initiated by the U.S. has no winners and warns that continued protectionism will hinder global economic development [8] - The global community is watching closely to see how this tariff conflict will unfold and what the eventual outcomes will be [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, pending fundamental verification [5] Core Viewpoints - The market should focus on Trump's 100 - day governance speech, and the follow - up impact of tariff events on the economy, as well as the potential for a stagflation macro - environment overseas [1][3] - The April Politburo meeting set a positive tone, and China's economy continues to show a stable and upward trend. Incremental policies will be introduced by the end of June [2] - The impact of tariff events on market sentiment has subsided, and attention should now turn to their impact on the economy [3] - For commodities, focus on the transmission of fundamentals and long - term stagflation allocation [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - During the May Day holiday from May 1st to May 5th, there are important data and events such as China's April PMI, initial GDP values of Europe and the US in Q1, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, etc. Domestic stock indices show significant holiday seasonal characteristics, rising in the first 20 working days after the holiday. For commodities, focus on the impact of travel consumption on crude oil prices and other factors [1] Macroeconomic Situation - The April Politburo meeting stated that the economy is showing a positive trend, and more proactive macro - policies will be implemented. China's Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The NDRC will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy, with incremental policies to be launched by the end of June [2] Tariff Events - Trump's tariff policies have been inconsistent. The US has imposed high anti - dumping and anti - subsidy taxes on Southeast Asian countries. There are chaotic signals on China's tariff issues. Some countries like South Korea and India have reached preliminary agreements with the US, and the US will prioritize negotiations with 18 trade partners in the next two months [3] Commodity Market - For commodities, pay attention to the transmission of fundamentals. For industrial products like black and non - ferrous metals, beware of the emotional impact from US stock adjustments. For agricultural products, the probability of price increases due to tariffs is higher. Crude oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and be cautious about the emotional and callback risks of gold [4] Important News - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy, and some incremental policies will be launched by the end of June. There are various international news including tariff negotiations between different countries and regions, and news about the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7][8]

Core Insights - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a dip to $3,278, supported by a decline in the US dollar and Treasury yields, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.71% to $3,354.80 per ounce [1] - China's gold reserves increased by 12.75 tons in Q1, totaling 2,292.33 tons by the end of March, while domestic gold production rose by 1.49% to 87.243 tons [1] - Despite a 5.96% year-on-year decline in gold consumption to 290.492 tons, domestic gold ETF holdings surged by 23.47 tons, marking a 327.73% increase [1] Market Analysis - Current market sentiment towards gold is overly optimistic, suggesting a potential need for correction after rapid price increases [1] - The softening of Trump's stance on tariffs towards China has led to a rebound in US stocks, which may influence gold prices as the market transitions [1] - Key support levels for gold are identified between $3,200 and $3,250 per ounce, with future market dynamics likely to favor gold amid rising stagflation risks in the US [1]

国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况。央行副行长邹澜表示， 适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕；将发挥好货币政策工具箱总量和结构双重功能，适时推出增量政策。 国家发改委表示，将建立和实施育儿补贴制度，创设专项再贷款工具、加大对服务消费重点领域和养老 产业发展的支持；指导限购城市，针对长期摇号家庭和无车家庭等重点群体，定向增发购车指标；力争 6 月底前要下达 2025 年 " 两重 " 建设和中央预算内投资全部项目清单。 国内商品期货夜盘收盘普遍下跌，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨。 重点品种： 股指、贵金属、集运 股指： 美国三大指数涨跌不一，上一交易日股指回落为主，银行板块领涨，房地产板块领跌，全市成 交额 1.08 万亿元，其中 IH2505 下跌 0.08% ， IF2505 下跌 0.21% ， IC2505 下跌 0.53% ， IM2505 下跌 0.95% 。资金方面， 4 月 25 日融资余额减少 54.02 亿元至 17914.72 亿元。从本次关税争端风波来看上 证 50 和沪深 300 走势更为坚挺，这两个指数里的内需比重比较高，若后续中美间争端持续，受影响程 度会相对 ...