Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Contract data**: - For the soybean meal 2505 contract, the previous settlement price was 2808, opening at 2794, with a high of 2794, a low of 2734, and closing at 2748, down 60 or -2.14%. The trading volume was 3274, and the open interest was 23163, a decrease of 2411 [6]. - The soybean meal 2507 contract had a previous settlement of 2795, opened at 2760, reached a high of 2781, a low of 2748, and closed at 2765, down 30 or -1.07%. The trading volume was 94711, and the open interest was 550877, an increase of 6429 [6]. - The soybean meal 2509 contract had a previous settlement of 2945, opened at 2904, with a high of 2932, a low of 2896, and closed at 2915, down 30 or -1.02%. The trading volume was 821492, and the open interest was 2473347, an increase of 19400 [6]. - **External market**: During the holidays, the CBOT soybean 07 contract fluctuated, with the main price at 1045 cents. There was limited short - term external market drive. Many countries were in trade negotiations with the US, and there were reports that Pakistan, Japan, etc., were interested in purchasing more US agricultural products. The CBOT soybean had strong support at the bottom. Meanwhile, there was a tendency for Sino - US negotiations, and the situation was more relaxed [6]. - **New - season US soybeans**: The planting area decreased significantly year - on - year, but the recent sowing speed was fast, which was beneficial for potential yield per unit. This put some pressure on the external market, and the external market was expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation [6]. - **Domestic soybean meal**: The sharp decline in the spot price before the holiday continued, and the phased supply - demand imbalance had basically ended. Some regional quotes were just over 3000 yuan. After May, a large amount of soybeans would arrive at ports and complete customs clearance, and the supply increase was reflected in the futures market in advance. The subsequent contracts were at a large discount to the spot price [6]. Operation Suggestions - In the short term, affected by the continuous decline of the spot price, the futures market was weak, and the expectation of negotiations made it difficult for bulls to take action. However, Sino - US negotiations were expected to be repeated, and the decrease in the US soybean planting area was a reality. From a rhythm perspective, the futures market might be weak in the short term and strong in the medium - to - long term, especially the valuation of the fourth - quarter contracts might increase, but it might be necessary to endure the greatest supply pressure in the second quarter [6]. Group 3: Industry News - **USDA crop growth report**: As of the week ending May 4, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than the expected 31%, up from 18% the previous week, 24% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 23%. The soybean emergence rate was 7%, compared with 8% last year and a five - year average of 5% [9]. - **CONAB data**: As of May 3, the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 97.7%, up from 94.8% the previous week, 94.3% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 96.3% [9]. - **Argentine data**: As of April 30, the 2024/25 Argentine soybean harvest rate was 25%, behind the 34% in the same period last year and up from 13% the previous week [9][10] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the soybean meal 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][13][15]

【导读】美股全线下挫，中概股逆市上涨 中国基金报记者 伊万 美东时间5月6日，美联储决议前夕，贸易谈判进展引发市场担忧，美股三大指数全线下挫。 美股全线收跌。截至收盘，道指跌0.95%，报40829点；标普500指数跌0.77%，报5606.91点；纳指跌0.87%，报17689.66点。 为安抚市场，美国财政部长贝森特重申可能最早于本周达成贸易协议，并表示，没有任何数据表明美国正处于衰退之中；预计第一季度GDP数据将上调。 此外，美国东北部各州州长正在寻求加强与加拿大的经济联系，并抵消特朗普政府的激进贸易政策。在当地时间周一发出的一封信中，马萨诸塞州和纽约 州等六个州的州长邀请加拿大六个省的省长在未来几周内到波士顿举行会议。贝森特还表示，他预期美中贸易谈判未来几周内将出现进展，并指出特朗普 对中国的145%关税无法长期维持。 财报不振 超微电脑盘后股价跌超5% 美东时间5月6日盘后，芯片股超微电脑公布业绩。 财报显示，超微电脑第三财季净销售46亿美元，分析师预期为47.6亿美元；预计全年净销售218亿～226亿美元，公司原本预计235亿～250亿美元；预计第 四财季净销售56亿～64亿美元，分析师预期为65 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 405 billion yuan on May 6, resulting in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan for the day, as 1,087 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - Overnight and seven-day pledged repo rates for deposit-taking institutions decreased by over 7 basis points [3] Group 2: Interbank Rates and Bonds - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was around 1.74%, showing little change from the previous day [7] - The yields on major interbank bonds showed slight variations, with one-year government bonds at 1.4625%, two-year at 1.4525%, and ten-year at 1.6260% [9] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Caixin China Services PMI for April recorded 50.7, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from March, marking the lowest level in seven months [13] - The composite PMI output index fell by 0.7 percentage points to 51.1, indicating a slowdown in domestic enterprise production and operational activities [13] Group 4: Trade and Economic Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated expectations for progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations in the coming weeks, suggesting that the 145% tariffs imposed by Trump cannot be maintained long-term [15] - California's governor stated that Trump's tariff policies have significantly harmed the state, emphasizing continued openness to trade with China [15] Group 5: Corporate Bond Market - Apple issued corporate bonds for the first time in 2023 amid increasing pressure from bond investors due to trade concerns [17] - A survey by JPMorgan revealed that 64% of clients held a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury bonds [17]

特朗普淡化贸易谈判 称重要的是降低价格 金十数据5月7日讯，美国总统特朗普表示，他将为那些希望避免高关税的合作伙伴规定关税水平和贸易 优惠，这似乎表明他不再认为会进行反复谈判。他补充说："我们会提出非常公平的数字，会是一个较 低的数字。我们并不想伤害各国。"特朗普上周日表示，第一批协议最快可能在本周达成，但他的最新 言论表明，他可能会继续改变做法。特朗普还说，他已经厌倦了关于何时达成协议的问题。"我们不必 签署协议。如果我们愿意，现在就可以签署25项协议。我们会签署一些协议，但比这更重要的是，我们 将降低在美国购物的价格。" ...

Group 1 - The EU Trade Commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis, stated that US tariffs could cover 97% of EU exports to the US if trade negotiations fail, which is deemed unacceptable [1][4] - The EU plans to impose tariffs on US goods worth €100 billion if negotiations do not yield satisfactory results, with discussions among member states expected to begin soon [1][4] - Current US tariffs already affect 70% of EU exports, and this figure could rise to 97% due to investigations initiated by the Trump administration [1][5] Group 2 - The EU is preparing to monitor potential risks of cheap US goods flooding the European market due to trade barriers, with preliminary results expected by mid-May [2] - The EU is considering a list of US goods for retaliatory tariffs and discussing possible export restrictions as part of its response strategy [4] - The EU has suspended retaliatory measures against US steel and aluminum tariffs to allow for negotiations, but progress has been limited [5]

智通财经5月6日电，目前正担任欧盟轮值主席国的波兰就美国加征关税事宜在欧洲议会阐明立场。波兰 欧盟事务部部长亚当·什瓦普卡当地时间5月6日表示，若与美国的贸易谈判失败，欧盟将考虑所有捍卫 利益的选项，包括向世界贸易组织提起诉讼。当天，什瓦普卡在欧洲议会的一场辩论中重申，美国对欧 盟加征额外关税毫无依据，"关税实质是由企业支付的税款，并最终由消费者承担。它将推高进口成 本、扰乱供应链，迫使企业要么自行消化成本，要么提高售价，从而加剧通胀"。什瓦普卡认为，尽管 欧盟欢迎美国暂停部分关税90天的决定，但仍对潜在新关税及美国政府政策给全球经济带来的不确定性 深表忧虑。 波兰官员：若欧美贸易谈判破裂 欧盟将考虑进一步行动 ...

欧盟与美国关税谈判收效甚微，着手酝酿对美反制措施。 周二，有媒体报道称，如果谈判失败，欧盟计划对价值1000亿欧元的美国商品加征关税。知情人士表 示，拟议的反制措施最早将于周三与成员国共享，磋商将持续一个月，之后才会最终确定名单。消息发 布后，欧元兑美元短线波动不大。 同时，据央视新闻，当地时间6日，欧盟贸易专员谢夫乔维奇（Maros Sefcovic）表示，在美国总统特朗 普宣布的90天暂停期间，欧盟将对美国对欧盟产品征收大量关税制定反制措施，并将考虑所有选项。他 表示欧盟并不感到软弱，也不接受来自美国不公平协议的压力。 欧盟与美国上个月正式启动的谈判进展甚微，预计美国的大部分关税仍将维持不变。紧张关系加剧之 际，欧盟周二表示特朗普正在进行的贸易调查将使欧盟面临关税的商品总额增至5490亿欧元。 据媒体早些时候报道，欧盟计划在本周向美国提交一份文件，其中将提出一系列建议，以启动与美国政 府的贸易谈判。欧盟的提议预计将包括降低贸易和非关税壁垒、增加欧洲对美国的投资、在应对不公平 竞争等战略挑战上合作，以及增加购买美国商品。 欧盟酝酿扩大反制措施 Maros Sefcovic表示，如果谈判失败，欧盟也在准备采取 ...

智通财经5月6日电，印度官员称与美国的贸易谈判进展非常顺利。 ...

金十数据5月6日讯，欧盟委员会副主席谢夫乔维奇表示，在特朗普提供的90天关税暂停期中，欧盟将准 备好应对美国对欧盟进口产品征收的大量关税，所有选择都在谈判台面上。谢夫乔维奇表示，美国的关 税现在覆盖了欧盟对美国商品贸易的70%，在美国对药品、半导体和其他产品进行进一步调查后，这一 比例可能上升到97%。谢夫乔维奇表示，与美国进行谈判以达成解决方案仍然是欧盟最明确和最希望得 到的结果。谢夫乔维奇表示，欧盟将利用关税暂停至7月8日这一段时间准备进一步的再平衡措施，并确 保在谈判失败的情况下有一个公平的竞争环境。"所有的选择都摆在桌面上，"谢夫乔维奇称。 欧盟官员：欧盟将准备好应对美国关税 所有选项都在台面上 ...

Group 1 - The euro to dollar exchange rate is currently stable at 1.1329 [1] - EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic stated that the tariff situation between the EU and the US is unacceptable [1] - A proposal has been made to implement "zero for zero" tariffs on industrial goods [1] Group 2 - There is an acceleration in trade negotiations with India [1]