1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Bean Meal**: The US soybean market is affected by factors such as lower - than - expected excellent rate and weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas. In the domestic market, the import of soybeans in June is increasing, and the weak spot price restricts the upward movement of the bean meal price. It is expected to return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The US soybean market has a bottom - support due to weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas, but the bumper harvest in South America and good recent planting weather limit its upward potential. The domestic soybean market is influenced by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, while the bumper harvest in Brazil and the expected increase in domestic production limit the price increase. The A2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 4200 and 4300 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Bean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100, and soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4200 and 4300 [8][10]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is beneficial to US soybeans, but the good recent planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pull - back after the rise in the US soybean market. The domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level after May Day, while the bean meal inventory remains low. The short - term market has returned to a volatile pattern, showing a strong - reality and weak - expectation situation. The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the demand for bean meal has weakened after May Day [12]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Bean Meal**: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. Bearish factors include the increase in the total import of domestic soybeans in June and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South America [13]. - **Soybeans**: Bullish factors are the cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand. Bearish factors are the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil and the expected increase in domestic production of new - season soybeans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2900, with a basis of - 174, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill bean meal inventory is 410,000 tons, a 7.19% increase from last week and a 58.79% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of - 47, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 5.996 million tons, a 1.75% decrease from last week and an 8.59% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The short positions of the main contract have decreased, and funds have flowed in [10].

豆粕早报 2025-06-17 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，油脂上涨支撑和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡等 待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高回落，获利盘 回吐和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹空间，短期 回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2870（华东），基差-175，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存41万吨，上周38.25万吨，环比增加7.19%，去年同期99.49万吨，同 比减少58.79%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：主力多单增加，资金流出，偏多 6.预期：美国大豆产区天气仍存变数支撑美豆盘面底部，但南美大豆丰产和美豆种植 ...

Group 1 - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, particularly Israel's attacks on Iran, has led to a significant increase in oil prices and a rise in the global energy sector, along with a boost in gold prices [1] - In the U.S., May inflation was lower than expected, resulting in the dollar hitting a three-year low, while U.S. Treasury yields continued to fluctuate [1] - Domestic social financing in May showed a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, primarily supported by government bonds, although credit remains weak, particularly in medium to long-term corporate loans, potentially impacted by U.S. tariff escalations [1] Group 2 - The bond market experienced fluctuations but leaned towards strength, with the central bank's active liquidity provision alleviating concerns over tight funding due to upcoming maturities [1] - The market's focus has shifted towards fundamentals as U.S.-China tariff negotiations reached a temporary resolution, with short-term geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting market risk appetite but expected to have a diminishing mid-term impact [1] - The continued weakness of the dollar is likely to attract funds into emerging markets, benefiting equity markets [1] Group 3 - In the Hong Kong stock market, multiple domestic and international factors have collectively strengthened risk appetite, with a potential continuation of this trend in the short term [2] - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has temporarily boosted oil sentiment, although global oil demand may still be affected by tariffs in the medium term [2] - Economic policy uncertainties stemming from tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility are expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, despite short-term price volatility [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-16 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 3.国内生猪养殖利润减少导致生猪补栏预期不高，豆粕需求五一后转淡 但供应偏紧支撑豆粕节后价格预期，加上中美关税战压力减弱豆粕短期进入 震荡偏弱格局。 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，美国生物柴油政策刺激油脂大涨带动大豆，美豆短期千点关口上 方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高回落， 获利盘回吐和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹空间， 短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2850（华东），基差-191，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库 ...

Strategy Overview - The report highlights the rapid escalation of the Middle East situation, emphasizing the need to focus on oil and precious metals as potential investment directions [6][28]. - It suggests that the A-share index may enter a period of volatility from late June to late July, with the market needing further momentum to move upward [6][28]. Market Performance - During the week of June 9-13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% to close at 3,377 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.60% to 10,122.11 points [10][19]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased by 13.09% compared to the previous week, reaching 13,392.35 billion yuan [10][19]. - The report notes that the prices of ICE light sweet crude oil rose by 14.20%, and COMEX gold increased by 3.17% during the same period [10][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a "barbell strategy" focusing on geopolitical conflict directions, precious metals, high-dividend stocks, and technology growth represented by AI [28][29]. - It suggests that the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East may lead to short-term performance in sectors such as oil, military, nuclear pollution prevention, and shipping [28]. - The report indicates that central banks have been increasing gold reserves, with China's gold reserves reaching 7,383 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons) as of the end of May, marking a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 tons) [28][29]. Sector Analysis - The report identifies that sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and agriculture have shown strong performance amid rising geopolitical risks [19][20]. - It highlights that the small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 index have a high price-to-earnings ratio of 136.44 times, indicating accumulated risks in this segment [6][28]. - The report also notes that the high-dividend sector remains attractive for investment, particularly in banking, coal, public utilities, and transportation [28].

·国投期货表示，隔夜美国5月CPI年率录得2.4%，核心CPI录得2.8%，同比环比均低于预期，特朗普再 次呼吁降息，美元回落，金价小幅上涨。但中美会谈达成共识框架消息令市场风险偏好继续向好限制金 价涨幅。各方关税谈判将继续主导市场，俄乌等地缘局势持续紧张，金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调 买入思路，白银破位后打开上方空间。 ·新湖期货表示，昨晚美国公布的5月CPI略低于市场预期，市场加大对美联储降息的押注，同时特朗普 再度向美联储施压降息，数据公布后黄金短线快速走强。中美首轮关税贸易谈判基本达成，市场不确定 性进一步降低。短期来看，中美首轮和谈进展符合市场预期，美国关税政策不确定性给市场带来的影响 有所减弱，金价波动在近期可能有所降低，但需警惕特朗普政策的反复。中长期来看，央行购金具有持 续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势，将继续支撑金价中枢上行，后续黄金可能仍偏强。 ·瑞银（UBS）的分析师在给客户的报告中称，尽管黄金近期走势有所盘整，但"目前金价涨势的暂停预 示着下一轮上涨行情的好兆头，因为看涨黄金的市场情绪没有改变。该行分析师认为，围绕美国关税、 财政政策和美联储应对的高度不确定性，增强了对投资 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The short - term outlook for domestic bean meal is to return to a range - bound pattern. The price of M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060. The U.S. soybean growing weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff game are the main focuses. The market is affected by factors such as the increase in imported soybeans arriving in June, the low inventory of domestic oil mills' bean meal, and the variable weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas [8]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean price is expected to move in a range of 4100 - 4200 for A2509. The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff game. Factors like the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, the continuous high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production all influence the price [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - **Bean Meal**: The domestic bean meal market is affected by the U.S. soybean market, with the increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices suppressing the upward space of the futures market. It is in a neutral state in the short - term [8]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean market is influenced by the U.S. soybean trend, the cost of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. It is also in a neutral state in the short - term [10]. 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement of Sino - U.S. tariff negotiation is beneficial to U.S. soybeans, but the good weather for U.S. soybean planting has led to a short - term decline after the rise of the U.S. soybean market. The domestic imported soybean arrivals reached a high in May, and the soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level, while the bean meal inventory remains low. The domestic pig - raising profit has decreased, leading to a weak demand for bean meal after May Day [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' bean meal, and variable weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Bean Meal Bearish Factors**: The increase in the total arrivals of domestic imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous high - yield expectation of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: Continuous high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2850, with a basis of - 197, showing a discount to the futures. The oil mill's bean meal inventory is 38.25 tons, a 28.36% increase from last week and a 65.19% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of - 3, showing a discount to the futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 610.29 tons, a 4.7% increase from last week and a 24.7% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The main long positions have decreased, but the capital has flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and the capital has flowed in [10].

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 12 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货6月11日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2506 | 1,941.3 | 1,920.0 | 1,926.0 | 1,935.5 | -15.3 | -0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always wrong, regardless of the situation [1] - The current trend in gold is characterized as a "super sweep" market, with expectations that this volatility will continue for an extended period, similar to the market behavior observed after the 2011 peak [1][3] - The trading strategy recommended involves either small stop-losses to improve the risk-reward ratio or larger stop-losses to increase the success rate, with specific dollar amounts suggested for each approach [3] Group 2 - Recent trading activity in gold showed a daily high of 3349 and a low of around 3301, indicating significant volatility within the trading day [4] - Key support and resistance levels for the upcoming trading day are identified, with support at 3300 and resistance at 3350 and 3365 [6] - Silver has experienced a notable increase, reaching its highest level since March 2012, but there are indications of potential weakness in the bullish momentum [6][8]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly better than the market expectation of 130,000 [2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, consistent with market expectations and previous values [2] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 3.8% and the expected 3.7%, indicating a resilient job market [2] Group 2 - Global geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, with reduced likelihood of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as both sides show willingness to negotiate [3] - In the Middle East, there are positive signals regarding a potential permanent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, and a revival of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal [3] - The market has developed a degree of immunity to geopolitical conflicts, which has diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3 - Tariff issues remain a key factor influencing gold price movements, with significant progress made in U.S.-China tariff negotiations [4] - The initiation of a second round of talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders indicates that the most severe phase of the trade war may be over [4] - The impact of tariff factors on the gold market is gradually weakening, suggesting a potential "tail-end" market phase for gold [4] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate due to rising domestic debt and the loss of dollar credibility from tariff policies, establishing a solid foundation for a long-term bull market in gold [5] - In the short term, while geopolitical tensions are entering a negotiation phase, there is a lack of upward momentum for gold prices, and investors should be cautious of potential price corrections [5] - Technically, gold prices are expected to maintain a range adjustment between $3,200 and $3,400 in June, with a prevailing bullish trend [5]