此前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表讲话，暗示尽管当前通胀上行风险依然存 在，但美联储仍可能在未来数月降息（详情→鲍威尔意外"放鸽"，分析师发警告）。消息一出，美元指 数一度跳水，创下4月以来的单日最大跌幅。而非美货币一改近几日承压表现，对美大幅升值。 据中国经营报报道，市场对美联储降息的预期升温，多位分析人士认为人民币有望升值。 招商证券指出，7月以来在美元未进一步走低的前提下，人民币中间价保持稳步升值，预计9月FOMC美 联储降息前后人民币结汇规模或再度放大，同时若央行继续坚持以市场供求为基础的调控政策，人民币 汇率就有望重返6时代，中国资产吸引力大概率提升。 同日，21财经·南财快讯记者发现，在岸人民币兑美元收盘报7.1517，较上一交易日上涨288点。 截至25日17:33，美元指数在98关口以下徘徊。 （原标题：人民币升破7.15，机构：或重回6时代） 8月25日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民 币7.1161元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1321元，调升160个基点，创2024年11月以来新高。 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has announced an increase in the central parity rate of the RMB against the USD, indicating a strengthening of the Chinese currency amid expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Currency Exchange Rates - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD is set at 7.1161, an increase of 160 basis points from the previous day's rate of 7.1321, marking the highest level since November 2024 [1] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1517 against the USD, rising by 288 points compared to the previous trading day [1] - As of 17:33 on August 25, the USD index is hovering below the 98 mark [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Following remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, there is an indication that the Fed may consider interest rate cuts in the coming months despite ongoing inflation risks [1] - Market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased, leading analysts to believe that the RMB may appreciate further [1]

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the RMB has led to discussions about its potential to reach a 1:1 exchange rate with the USD, with current data showing 1 USD equals 7.18 RMB, the highest in three years [3] - If the RMB continues to appreciate at a rate of 5% annually, it could take approximately 10 years to reach parity with the USD, although fluctuations in interest rates could accelerate this process [3][4] - The RMB's rise is influenced by China's growing economy and increasing foreign direct investment, with a reported 10.5% growth in outbound investment in 2024 [3] Group 2 - A 1:1 exchange rate would significantly benefit travelers and students, reducing costs for overseas travel and education, with potential savings of up to 60,000 RMB for a trip to the US [4] - Consumers engaging in cross-border e-commerce would see drastic price reductions on imported goods, with luxury items and electronics becoming significantly cheaper [4][5] - Investors could see substantial gains in the stock market, with a 1% appreciation in the RMB potentially leading to a 3% increase in stock returns, particularly for leading companies like Moutai and Tencent [5] Group 3 - Export-oriented industries would face challenges, with a potential 30% drop in orders as the RMB appreciates, leading to job losses in manufacturing sectors [7] - The agricultural sector may struggle as imported goods become cheaper, potentially leading to a 15% drop in domestic agricultural prices and impacting farmers' incomes [7] - Ordinary workers may experience rising living costs without corresponding wage increases, as imported raw material prices could drive up domestic product prices [7] Group 4 - Historical precedents, such as Japan's experience in the 1980s, highlight the risks associated with rapid currency appreciation, suggesting that the RMB's rise must be managed carefully to avoid economic pitfalls [9] - Experts recommend that individuals maintain a balanced approach to currency exchange and investment, suggesting diversification into assets like gold ETFs to hedge against inflation [10] - Upskilling is advised for workers in export industries to mitigate job loss risks, with potential for significant wage increases in emerging sectors like new energy vehicles [10] Group 5 - The appreciation of the RMB reflects China's economic strength and transition from low-end manufacturing to high-end production, but it also presents both opportunities and risks for various sectors [11]

（原标题：人民币升破7.17，创9个月新高） 人民币对美元中间价升至9个多月新高。 8月21日，人民币对美元即期汇率一度升破7.17关口，最高升至7.1682。 中间价方面，8月21日，人民币对美元中间价报7.1287，调升97个基点，创2024年11月7日以来新高。 消息面上，当地时间8月21日至23日，全球央行行长年度会议在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行。北京时间8月 22日晚22点，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。目前，市场几乎已经断定美联储将在9月开启降息。 人民币为何持续升值 在美联储降息预期持续强化、科技研发实力推动中国资产价值重构等多项因素叠加之下，人民币计价资 产在全球的吸引力日益递增，这推动了人民币的升值。 央行在8月15日发布的《2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》中指出，要坚持市场在汇率形成中起 决定性作用，发挥好汇率对宏观经济、国际收支的调节功能，综合施策，促进预期平稳，在复杂形势下 保持人民币汇率基本稳定。 中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员肖宇分析指出，人民币汇率中间价在有效遏制汇率超调 中所发挥的积极作用。今年年初以来，这一人民币汇率形成机制就曾多次稳定了市场预期。包括5月27 ...

Market Trends & Exchange Rate Dynamics - The possibility exists for the RMB to appreciate further against the USD, potentially breaking through the 7 level [1] - Scenarios driving RMB appreciation include a weakening US economy, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a general decline in market confidence in the USD [1] - A potential improvement in US-China trade relations, such as a second-phase trade agreement, could also boost market confidence and push the RMB higher [1] - The multi-lateral exchange rate trend of the RMB is a result, not a target [1] Policy & Stance - China is not deliberately devaluing its exchange rate to support exports [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist for China, Wang Ying, anticipates the Federal Reserve will begin its first rate cut in March 2024, with a total of seven rate cuts expected by 2026 [1] - The timing of the rate cuts may be later than some market expectations, but the overall aggressiveness, magnitude, and frequency of the cuts are still anticipated to be significant [1] Group 2 - Wang Ying believes that as the Federal Reserve opens its rate cut cycle, the US dollar is likely to weaken over the next one to two years, which would be beneficial for Chinese assets [3] - Under a weak dollar scenario, there is an expectation of a slight appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar, and historical data indicates that this situation enhances the attractiveness of Renminbi-denominated assets [3]

中银 证券全球首席经济学家管涛表示，人民币兑美元存在进一步升值突破7元的可能性。推动人民币走 升的情形包括美国经济疲软、美联储减息以及市场对美元信心普遍下降(美元信誉受损)。另外，还有一 种可能推升人民币的情形，就是中美能够像美国总统特朗普第一个任期那样达成一个第二阶段经贸协 议，这可能提升市场信心。 曾任国家外汇管理局国际收支司司长的管涛称，如果假设的情形发生，人 民币可能会升破7。他还反驳有关中国刻意让汇率贬值来支持出口的说法，并称人民币的多边汇率的走 势"是结果，不是目标。"（格隆汇） ...

今日必读🛠️美国生产价格公布后降息押注减少🖥️特朗普政府据悉洽购英特尔股份💴欧美经济学家呼吁人民币升值获取免费中文电子报《彭博财经早茶》，洞悉全球市场动态。Catch up on what's moving China's markets in our free Chinese language newsletter. https://t.co/5IEVqBdmG0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the worst phase of the economic fundamentals may have passed, with expectations for a recovery in the U.S. economy and increasing inflationary pressures. Policy shifts are expected to support consumer and business confidence in the second half of the year, while global markets, particularly in Europe, are anticipated to continue their recovery [2][6][17]. Economic Fundamentals - The U.S. economy has faced negative policy shocks since the beginning of the year, disrupting the recovery initiated by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts last September. Private consumption contributed 0.31 and 0.98 percentage points to GDP in Q1 and Q2, respectively, compared to an expected 1.87 percentage points in 2024 [6][9]. - Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. has been declining since February, reflecting a broader global economic slowdown due to policy headwinds [6][9]. - The article anticipates that the economic fundamentals may improve in the second half of the year, driven by fiscal stimulus and a stable labor market, which could lead to a new wage growth cycle [14][15]. Policy Environment - The article notes a shift from policy headwinds to tailwinds, with tariff uncertainties diminishing and tax cuts being implemented. This is expected to boost consumer and business confidence in the latter half of the year [2][9]. - The U.S. Treasury is projected to issue approximately $1 trillion in net debt in Q3, which may tighten liquidity and suppress risk asset performance [2][20]. Inflation Outlook - Inflation in the U.S. is expected to rise as the low base effect ends and tariffs are implemented. The article predicts a noticeable acceleration in inflation trends in the second half of the year [15][20]. Global Market Dynamics - The article highlights that the weak dollar cycle is beneficial for emerging markets, particularly Hong Kong stocks. Historical trends show that improvements in fundamentals and currency appreciation positively impact risk asset performance [3][33]. - The article also discusses the potential for a global market recovery, with expectations for multiple markets to perform well rather than just the U.S. stock market [26][28]. Sector Analysis - The article expresses optimism for sectors such as manufacturing, military, energy, and infrastructure in the U.S. and Europe, which are expected to maintain high levels of activity and support resource prices like copper and aluminum [2][28]. - The financial sector is also seen as having investment value due to liquidity expansion and financial deregulation [28][40]. Currency and Asset Valuation - The anticipated depreciation of the dollar and the return of pending foreign exchange funds are expected to support the appreciation of the Chinese yuan [3][30]. - The article suggests that the weak dollar environment will favor growth-oriented stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong markets, particularly in technology and materials sectors [33][49]. Bond Market Insights - The article notes that short-term market sentiment is currently driving bond market fluctuations, with a potential for increased volatility in the bond market due to strong performance in risk assets [50][56]. - It is expected that the long-term bond yields may trend upwards due to the issuance of new debt and economic recovery, but there remains potential for a downward adjustment in yields if the Federal Reserve resumes quantitative easing [56][58].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industries is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The stock market's recent rise is driven by long - term expectations of fiscal policy shift to consumption and inflation recovery, mid - term anti - involution policies benefiting upstream cycle sectors, and short - term capital inflows due to RMB appreciation and improved enterprise deposit - loan data. Wait for clearer policy and market trends before adjusting positions [2]. - Short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong as the market - driving effect of anti - involution policy expectations since July is over, and the bond market is likely to have a repair market [3]. - Gold is in a window supported by both "rising interest - rate cut expectations" and "geopolitical uncertainties" and is expected to maintain a strong trend. For silver, low - buying and holding is a good strategy [4]. - Most commodities in the steel, coal, and coke sectors are expected to move in a narrow or wide - range oscillation in the short term, affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy expectations, and cost changes [6][7][9]. - Copper prices may be weak but the expected peak season in September will limit the decline. Nickel and stainless steel prices are affected by market sentiment and will oscillate. Aluminum - related products' prices face downward pressure due to supply increases, while industrial silicon and polysilicon have different trends and investment opportunities [14][15][19]. - Oil prices are under pressure. High and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to oscillate weakly. Asphalt is supported by low supply and inventory but is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely. PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, polyolefins, PVC, urea, soda ash, and glass all have their own supply - demand characteristics and are expected to have different short - term price trends [24][25][27]. - Protein meal prices are rising, and a long - position strategy is recommended. Most oils are strong, and a long - position strategy is also suggested. Livestock and poultry products such as pigs and eggs have complex supply - demand situations and are expected to oscillate. Corn has a short - term rebound but a mid - term weakening trend [39][41][42]. - Sugar is expected to continue its weak trend. Cotton's 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and strengthen in the medium - long term [46][49]. 3. Summary by Category Financials - **Stock Index**: A - share market was flat yesterday. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is significant. The stock market's rise is driven by multiple factors. Wait for clearer trends before adjusting positions [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures rose slightly. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal. Short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. Gold is supported by multiple factors, and silver can be held through low - buying [4]. Mineral, Steel, Coal, and Coke - **Rebar**: Futures prices were slightly down. Production increased, inventory rose, and demand improved slightly. Exports remained high. It is expected to move in a narrow range [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices fell. Supply decreased, demand was mixed, and inventory increased. It is expected to oscillate [7][8]. - **Coking Coal**: Futures prices rose. Supply was affected by inspections, and demand was strong. It is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **Coke**: Futures prices rose. Supply was affected，and demand was good. It is expected to oscillate widely [10]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Both futures prices weakened. They are affected by policies, cost, and supply - demand factors and are expected to oscillate widely [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices were slightly down. Affected by macro factors, inventory changes, and weak demand, copper prices may be weak but limited by the peak - season expectation [14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices fell slightly. Affected by inventory, price differentials, and supply - demand, they are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Aluminum - related Products**: Prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy were weak. Supply is expected to increase, and prices face downward pressure [16][18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon was strong, and polysilicon was weak. There are different investment opportunities [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Futures prices rose. Supply is expected to increase, demand is improving, and inventory is changing. The market focuses on production uncertainties [20][22]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell for six consecutive days. Affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand, oil prices are under pressure [24]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply is sufficient, demand may weaken, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - **Asphalt**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply may decrease, demand is expected to improve, and it is expected to oscillate [27]. - **Rubber**: Futures prices rose. Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and it is expected to oscillate widely [28]. - **PX, PTA, MEG**: Prices of related products rose slightly. Affected by cost and demand, PTA may be under pressure, and MEG may adjust weakly [29][30]. - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to oscillate as inventory is expected to increase slightly in August with limited import and stable demand [31]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand will recover in August, and the upside is limited without significant cost increases [32]. - **PVC**: Market pressure eases, inventory decreases slowly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [33][34]. - **Urea**: Futures prices were weak. Supply increased, demand was weak, and the Indian tender can relieve some pressure. It is expected to oscillate widely and weakly [35]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices oscillated widely. Supply increased, demand was weak, and it is expected to oscillate widely with a weak sentiment [36]. - **Glass**: Futures prices oscillated widely. Supply was stable, demand was weak, and inventory increased. It is expected to oscillate widely [37]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Prices rose. U.S. soybeans had strong sales, and domestic prices were boosted by external and cost factors. A long - position strategy is recommended [39]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell, while domestic oils were strong. A long - position strategy is suggested [40][41]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: Pig prices are expected to oscillate due to supply and policy factors. Egg prices have a complex situation with a possible seasonal rebound but a short - term bearish sentiment [42][43]. - **Corn**: Futures prices rebounded technically, but the mid - term is expected to be weak [44]. Soft Commodities - **Sugar**: Prices are expected to continue to be weak due to production increase expectations and domestic price adjustments [46]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton fell. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and strengthen in the long term [47][49].