钛媒体App 9月3日消息，人民币升值有多重因素。分析人士认为，中国经济基本面的稳步改善是人民币 走强的根本支撑。展望未来，人民币仍有升值空间，政策引导、结汇盘动向与海外货币政策变化等因素 将成为影响其后续走势的关键。当前，国际外汇市场的均衡力量正在发生改变，对冲基金加大对人民币 对美元汇率看涨期权的押注。新加坡交易所衍生品数据显示，投资者的目标价位是到年底人民币对美元 汇率升至7.0以上。分析人士认为，人民币趋势变化还会受到两个不确定交易因素影响，可能放大汇率 波动。其中之一就是积压待结汇盘的潜在释放。（上证报） ...

上周，人民币对美元汇率强势反弹，在岸与离岸市场双双创下多个月以来新高。步入9月后，人民币对 美元汇率虽有所回调，但整体仍高于上周升值前的汇率水平，彰显人民币汇率韧性。人民币升值有多重 因素。分析人士认为，中国经济基本面的稳步改善是人民币走强的根本支撑。展望未来，人民币仍有升 值空间，政策引导、结汇盘动向与海外货币政策变化等因素将成为影响其后续走势的关键。（上证报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The attitude of foreign capital towards Chinese assets is changing, with a notable increase in inflows into A-shares and a slowdown in outflows from Hong Kong stocks and ADRs [1][5][6]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Inflows - Active foreign capital has begun to flow into A-shares for the first time since October of the previous year, with accelerated inflows observed in late August [1][5]. - In the first half of the year, foreign capital net increased its holdings in domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing a two-year trend of net reductions [1][6]. - From May to July, long-term stable foreign institutional funds flowed into Hong Kong stocks amounting to approximately HKD 67.7 billion, while short-term flexible funds totaled about HKD 16.2 billion [1][6]. Group 2: Performance of Chinese Assets - As of September 2, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 15.11% year-to-date, with significant gains in other indices such as the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market [3]. - The A-share market has shown a notable profit effect since August, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing nearly 8% and the ChiNext Index rising over 20% [3]. - The Hang Seng Index has also performed well, increasing by 27.10% year-to-date [3]. Group 3: Investment Preferences of Foreign Capital - Foreign investors are primarily interested in high-growth sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, internet leaders in Hong Kong, and the new energy sector [8][9]. - The top holdings of foreign capital in A-shares include companies like CATL, Kweichow Moutai, and Meituan, with significant market values exceeding CNY 100 billion [8]. - Recent trends indicate a shift of foreign capital from Hong Kong stocks to A-shares due to better performance in the latter [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar and the potential for RMB appreciation could lead to a sustained inflow of foreign capital into Chinese assets [7][9]. - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors with high export growth, clear upward trends, and globally competitive core assets [9].

Core Viewpoint - The three pillars supporting the RMB exchange rate—China-US interest rate differential, policy risk premium, and purchasing power parity—are shifting favorably towards appreciation, with the central bank's midpoint guidance and foreign capital FOMO sentiment acting as additional catalysts [2][5]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB/USD exchange rate has experienced fluctuations this year, initially appreciating in a weak dollar environment, then depreciating due to tariff concerns, and recently regaining upward momentum [4]. - The current trend shows a convergence of the RMB midpoint, onshore, and offshore rates towards the 7.0 level, supported by both fundamental factors and event-driven catalysts [4][5]. Group 2: Interest Rate Differential - The narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential has been a fundamental basis for the RMB's appreciation over the past three months [6]. - Since July, the yield on China's 10-year government bonds has risen over 20 basis points to above 1.8%, while the US 10-year Treasury yield has decreased from 4.5% to around 4.2%, leading to a significant narrowing of the nominal interest rate differential by nearly 50 basis points [7]. - Adjusting for inflation, the actual interest rate differential has further narrowed, with China's low inflation levels contrasting with a slight rebound in US inflation [7][10]. Group 3: Policy Risk Premium - The policy risk premium for Chinese assets is decreasing, while it is rising for US assets due to concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve [10]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for a more stable RMB asset environment are contributing to a long-term reduction in China's sovereign risk premium [10]. Group 4: Purchasing Power Parity - The RMB is currently undervalued against the USD based on purchasing power parity (PPP), with the IMF indicating that 1 USD's purchasing power is equivalent to approximately 3.4 RMB [12]. - The long-standing undervaluation is attributed to limited capital account openness and concerns over China's economic transition risks, but the door for RMB revaluation is opening [12]. Group 5: Catalysts for RMB Appreciation - The central bank's midpoint rate has been set unusually strong, indicating an official expectation for RMB appreciation [18]. - Recent reports suggest the potential introduction of a RMB stablecoin, which could enhance the internationalization of the RMB and increase its attractiveness for foreign investment [20]. - Foreign capital is increasingly entering the A-share market, with significant inflows observed in August, driven by a shift in sentiment from trading to investing in Chinese assets [24]. - Export companies are accelerating their currency conversion as the cost of holding USD rises, contributing to RMB appreciation [25]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The weak dollar environment is expected to continue supporting RMB appreciation, although factors such as declining export expectations and the need for domestic demand recovery may influence the pace of appreciation [28].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy**, **RMB (Renminbi) exchange rate**, and the **impact of U.S. monetary policy** on global markets, particularly focusing on **A-shares** and **bond markets**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy typically weakens the dollar and lowers U.S. Treasury yields, which is expected to benefit gold. However, recent market behavior has diverged from this logic, with the dollar showing signs of recovery and Treasury yields stabilizing around 4.25% [1][3][11]. 2. **RMB Appreciation**: The recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to boost market risk appetite, particularly in the context of de-dollarization. However, caution is advised regarding extreme events like the UK fiscal storm that could trigger global asset volatility, particularly affecting Hong Kong stocks [1][4][5]. 3. **External and Internal Influences**: The RMB's recent performance is influenced by both external factors (like the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields) and internal factors (such as domestic economic conditions). The stability of the dollar around 98 and Treasury yields around 4.2-4.25 has allowed for independent market movements [2][6]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite**: The RMB's appreciation is linked to increased market risk appetite, driven by a weak dollar and the ongoing U.S.-China economic dynamics. Historical extreme events should be considered, as they can lead to significant market adjustments [4][5][23]. 5. **Future RMB Exchange Rate Expectations**: The RMB is expected to appreciate further, potentially falling below 7 by year-end, driven by stronger-than-expected exports and anticipated Fed rate cuts. The central bank may intervene to prevent rapid fluctuations to protect export-oriented businesses [11][23]. 6. **Inventory Cycle and Economic Indicators**: Recent PMI data indicates a mixed picture, with supply-side strength but weak demand. Companies are preemptively stocking up due to concerns over rising prices, which may not reflect genuine demand recovery [9][10][12][13]. 7. **Stock and Bond Market Dynamics**: There has been a noticeable decoupling between stock and bond markets, with funds shifting from bonds to equities, leading to upward pressure on stock prices. This trend may face challenges if retail investors do not significantly enter the market [15]. 8. **Investment Strategy in Current Environment**: Suggested investment areas include financial insurance, gold, domestic coal, and photovoltaic sectors, as well as consumer services and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are sensitive to U.S. Treasury yields [18]. 9. **RMB Internationalization**: The discussion highlights the ongoing efforts towards RMB internationalization, including the development of stablecoins and digital RMB, with a focus on cross-border trade and financial infrastructure [22]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Potential Risks**: The potential for short-term declines in global risk appetite due to external shocks, such as political instability in France and fiscal issues in the UK, should be monitored closely [5][6]. 2. **Liquidity and Market Dynamics**: The central bank's response to potential hot money inflows could significantly impact liquidity and interest rates, affecting both the bond and equity markets [7][8]. 3. **Long-term Economic Policies**: The effectiveness of policy measures aimed at stabilizing the economy and promoting growth, particularly in infrastructure investment, remains a critical area of focus [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD is primarily driven by a weakening dollar rather than a strong Chinese economy, indicating that the RMB's rise is more of a response to global trends than a sign of domestic strength [4][5][9]. Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The RMB appreciated against the USD, reaching a low of 7.11, influenced by a decline in the dollar index from around 103 to below 100, with a minimum of 97.5 [5][6]. - The weakening of the dollar is attributed to the U.S. economic recovery post-pandemic, which has been hampered by long-term fiscal deficits and rising debt, with U.S. debt surpassing $37 trillion and interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion annually [6][7]. - Market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, following disappointing employment data, have also contributed to the dollar's decline [7]. Group 2: Domestic Factors - The People's Bank of China has increased the issuance of offshore central bank bills, with a net financing of 30 billion RMB in August, which helps stabilize the exchange rate by attracting foreign capital [8]. - The RMB's appreciation against the USD does not reflect a simultaneous strengthening against other major currencies, indicating a relative depreciation when considering a basket of currencies [9][10]. Group 3: Trade Implications - The depreciation of the RMB against a basket of currencies, particularly the euro and other non-USD currencies, may benefit China's export competitiveness by making Chinese goods cheaper in key markets like the EU and ASEAN [10]. - However, the appreciation of the RMB against the USD could increase pressure on domestic exporters, especially those relying on low-price competition, affecting their bargaining power in international markets [10]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - The future trajectory of the RMB against the USD will depend on domestic stock market performance and the ongoing trends of the dollar [12][13]. - A stable or appreciating RMB could attract more foreign investment into Chinese markets, but current foreign capital inflows have not significantly increased despite the RMB's rise [13]. - For Chinese investors, the appreciation of the RMB against the USD may reduce the returns on U.S. dollar-denominated assets, making it a more favorable time to invest in such assets, albeit with a recommendation to stagger currency exchanges to mitigate risks [14].

Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB/USD exchange rate has shown a fluctuating upward trend since the beginning of the year, with a slight appreciation in early 2023 due to a weaker dollar, followed by a rapid depreciation in April due to tariff concerns, and a return to appreciation from May onwards[2] - As of late August, the RMB has entered a strong appreciation phase, with the onshore and offshore rates converging towards the 7.0 level, indicating support from both fundamental and policy factors[2][5] Key Drivers of RMB Appreciation - The narrowing of the China-US 10-year Treasury yield spread by nearly 50 basis points over the past three months has provided a basis for recent RMB appreciation, driven by a mild increase in China's risk-free interest rates and a decline in US Treasury yields[7] - Changes in policy risk premiums have favored the RMB, as rising uncertainty in US fiscal and monetary policies contrasts with China's efforts to reduce sovereign risk premiums through reforms[6][14] - The long-standing undervaluation of the RMB is changing, with IMF data indicating that 1 USD has a purchasing power equivalent to 3.4 RMB, suggesting the current exchange rate is undervalued by over 50%[17][20] Catalysts for Recent Appreciation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released strong appreciation expectations through its midpoint rate, influenced by geopolitical negotiations and domestic stability considerations[3][31] - The bullish trend in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 8% and the ChiNext Index over 20% in August, has led to increased foreign investment and demand for RMB[40] Future Outlook - The weak dollar environment is expected to continue supporting RMB appreciation, but factors such as weak export expectations and the need for domestic demand recovery suggest a stable appreciation pace is more beneficial for fundamental recovery[47] - The importance of the RMB against a basket of currencies is anticipated to rise, reflecting the need for a more balanced exchange rate strategy[49]

人民币升值将助推资产重估 大类资产首席分析师：孙付 SAC NO：S1120520050004 2025年9月2日 证券研究报告 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1 核心观点 经济基本面与政策展望： ● 海外：美国经济动能在放缓，尽管关税对通胀的冲击仍在发酵，但美联储独立性在减弱，更加重视就业，非农数据 的转弱将促使9月重启降息。 ● 国内：经济呈现弱稳定，宏观政策温和发力，货币流动性保持宽裕状态。关税谈判持续推进，关税不确定对经济的 扰动减弱。 "反内卷"更多依靠技术创新促进落后产能淘汰、优化供给结构，对物价的影响是结构性与温和的。 物价展望：宏观政策对服务消费支持力度加大，我们预计核心CPI在温和回升后保持相对稳定；广谱CPI逐步有所回升， 中枢上移至0.5%；PPI逐渐向-1%靠拢。GDP平减指数有望在2026年年中转正。 人民币升值预期增强： 美元：降息重启叠加美国削减贸易逆差诉求，美元呈现弱势。 人民币汇率：双顺差带来外汇池子资金增加，汇率走强；外汇掉期显示有升值预期。 资产展望：人民币升值将助推中国资产重估 股票：在经济边际企稳，流动性较为宽松，人民币升值背景下，股票市场有望维持牛市氛围。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar is primarily driven by a weakening dollar rather than a strong Chinese economy [2][3]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness - The US dollar has weakened due to changes in the global economic landscape, including long-term fiscal deficits and rising debt levels, with US debt surpassing $37 trillion and annual interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion [2][3]. - Market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, following disappointing employment data, have also contributed to the dollar's decline [3]. Group 2: Renminbi Appreciation - The Renminbi's appreciation against the dollar is not indicative of a robust Chinese economy but rather a response to the global trend of a weaker dollar [3][4]. - The People's Bank of China has increased the issuance of offshore central bank bills, which helps stabilize the exchange rate and attract foreign capital [3][4]. Group 3: Trade and Investment Implications - Despite the Renminbi's appreciation against the dollar, it has depreciated against a basket of currencies, which is beneficial for China's export competitiveness [5][6]. - The potential for continued Renminbi appreciation against the dollar depends on domestic stock market performance and the trajectory of the dollar [6][7]. - For Chinese investors, the appreciation of the Renminbi may reduce the returns on US dollar-denominated assets, making it a more favorable time to invest in such assets [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB exchange rate has positively impacted the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the technology sector, with significant inflows into the Hang Seng Tech ETF [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate and Market Impact - On August 28, the People's Bank of China reported that the RMB/USD central parity rate surpassed the 7.11 mark, reaching 7.1063, which has drawn considerable market attention [1] - Throughout August, the RMB central parity rate appreciated by 464 basis points, contributing to a favorable market environment [1] - Historical data suggests that during periods of RMB appreciation, the market tends to rise, with Hong Kong stocks showing greater elasticity [1] Group 2: Capital Inflows and ETF Performance - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) saw a net subscription of over 1 billion shares on September 1, reaching a new high of 489.44 billion shares since its inception [1] - Southbound capital has injected significant momentum into the Hong Kong tech sector, with net purchases exceeding 10 billion HKD for two consecutive trading days [1] - The average daily trading volume of the Hang Seng Tech ETF increased to 5.248 billion HKD in August, up from 3.922 billion HKD in July [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Technology Sector - The Hang Seng Tech ETF tracks 30 representative Hong Kong tech companies, benefiting from liquidity easing, ongoing AI advancements, and business empowerment through AI [1] - As of September 1, the latest scale of the Hang Seng Tech ETF reached 37.55 billion HKD, making it a favorable investment tool for capturing opportunities in the Hong Kong tech sector [1]