（数据来源： DM终端，截至20250808） 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 上周来看，债市逐步消化增值税调整影响，周内股债跷跷板效应仍存，但影响逐步钝化，资金宽松下行债市积蓄韧性， 10Y国债低点徘徊1.685%附近，市场情绪谨慎等待周五地方债及国债发行落地。具体而言，周一债市在上周五晚的大起大 落后回归震荡趋势；周二日内债市涨跌互现，长债表现优于短端；周三债市主线缺乏今日继续震荡行情，长债收益率上下 反复；周四债市延续震荡态势，行情较前期有所走强，长债收益率低位横盘；周五国债及地方债一级发行落地，债市收益 率先上后下。全周走势如下图所示。 本轮债市调整以来平安公司债ETF（511030）回撤控制排名第一，净值相对稳健且回撤可控，可参考下表（本轮债市调整 自2025年2月10日起算）： （数据来源：WIND资讯，平安基金整理，截至20250808） ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market dynamics in China, focusing on fixed income strategies and the impact of macroeconomic factors on various asset classes, including stocks and commodities. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Performance** - In July, the bond market faced pressure from risk appetite, leading to rising interest rates, although the fundamentals and liquidity remained supportive. The overall sentiment in the bond market stabilized quickly despite the adjustments, with credit bonds showing relatively minor adjustment pressure [1][4][8]. 2. **Government Policies and Market Reactions** - The introduction of the 924 policy in September led to a "see-saw" effect between the stock and bond markets, causing significant redemption pressures on bond funds and wealth management products [10][20]. The policy aimed at stabilizing growth and capital markets had a notable impact on market dynamics. 3. **Yield Curve Dynamics** - The current yield curve is characterized by a bear steepening pattern, with short-term rates rising less than medium to long-term rates. This reflects the influence of growth stabilization and inflation expectations [6][12]. 4. **Credit Bonds Performance** - Credit bonds exhibited less adjustment pressure compared to interest rate bonds, indicating investor confidence in credit products despite rising yields [8][19]. 5. **Economic Fundamentals and Policy Effects** - The basic economic fundamentals are weak, with a notable decline in domestic demand since June. However, the anti-involution policies may provide some support to nominal prices, albeit with a lag in their effects on actual GDP growth [13][15][16]. 6. **Market Risks and Adjustments** - The current economic downturn and rising unemployment pose risks of negative feedback loops, particularly affecting the real estate market and potentially leading to price increases [15]. The anticipated impact on PPI is estimated to be around 2-3 percentage points, while the effect on CPI is less pronounced [15]. 7. **Valuation of Convertible Bonds** - The convertible bond market is currently at historical high valuations, with new bond pricing being expensive. The performance of convertible bonds is closely tied to the Shanghai Composite Index, which is approaching a critical resistance level of 3,700 points [22][25]. 8. **Investment Strategies and Recommendations** - For August, the overall market adjustment risk is deemed controllable, with recommendations to adopt a tactical approach focusing on trading opportunities and maintaining a cautious stance on long-duration assets [20][21]. The emphasis is on a "yield strategy" and monitoring the performance of high-grade bonds [21]. 9. **Impact of Tax Adjustments** - The implementation of VAT adjustments has created pricing discrepancies between new and old bonds, but the overall impact on long-term bonds is expected to be minimal [18]. 10. **Future Market Outlook** - The outlook for the bond market remains cautious, with expectations of potential upward pressure on yields in the coming months. The focus should be on maintaining a yield strategy while being wary of capital loss risks associated with long-duration bonds [48]. Additional Important Insights - The bond market's response to regulatory changes and macroeconomic policies is critical for understanding future trends. The interplay between fiscal policies in the U.S. and global asset pricing is also highlighted, indicating a need for vigilance regarding potential impacts on investment strategies [2][39][45]. - The performance of the newly launched science and technology bonds ETFs is noted, with a significant increase in scale despite recent market adjustments, indicating a growing interest in this segment [50][57][64]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the bond market and related investment strategies.

4月最后几个交易日债市大幅波动，"伤及"银行理财投资者。 "购买的低风险银行理财产品，配置资产大多是存款和债券。最近债市回调，理财收益也跟着跌了，手 头两只产品近一周的日收益基本都是负的。"日收益再现负值，不禁让投资者小吴担忧，债市回调背景 下银行理财是否还值得投？ 小吴是当下众多银行理财投资者的"缩影"。事实上，投资者们的担忧不无道理。作为银行理财产品的重 要投资标的，债券类资产出现波动无疑会给银行理财产品收益带来影响。 然而，多位业内人士在接受记者采访时表示，此轮债市调整符合预期，预计不会重演2022年"破净潮"现 象。原因在于，理财产品主要持仓中短端债券资产，在短久期特性和稳估值资产的加持下，产品净值整 体波动幅度可控。此外，市场学习效应明显，行业资产抗压性有所提升，应对债市调整的经验和能力也 更为充足。 债市波动来袭 "五一假期之前的数个交易日，债市出现大幅调整。急跌看似是收益率持续创新低之后，集中止盈所 致，背后蕴含着多方面原因。"国投证券首席固定收益分析师尹睿哲说。 债市波动牵动着银行理财投资者的神经。"4月底以来，银行理财产品净值就在跌。五一期间，查看收益 情况，发现4月24日以来的七天里有三天 ...

Core Insights - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has seen a slight increase of 0.06%, with the latest price at 123.52 yuan, indicating active market trading [1] - The ETF has a recent trading volume of 75.70 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 33.88%, reflecting strong liquidity [1] - The total size of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 222.96 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.17 billion yuan recently [1] - Over the past 10 trading days, there have been 8 days of net inflows totaling 25.27 billion yuan, suggesting a positive trend in investor interest [1] Market Analysis - According to the chief fixed income analyst at招商证券, the current bond market adjustment reflects two key characteristics: a rise in risk appetite due to stock market gains, which puts pressure on the bond market, particularly long-term bonds, and historically low credit spreads, making the bond market structurally fragile and sensitive to negative factors [1] - In the short term, a defensive strategy is recommended, while opportunities for allocation in long-term bonds should be considered during adjustments, avoiding chasing prices and controlling duration appropriately [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has entered an adjustment phase, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.6653% on July 15 to 1.7578% on July 30, before retreating to 1.7144% on July 31. This adjustment has impacted fixed-income wealth management products, leading to a decrease in their yields [3][4][5]. Market Adjustment Impact - The adjustment in the bond market has led to a decline in the average annualized yield of open-ended fixed-income wealth management products to 2.81%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4]. - As of July 21-27, the number of existing wealth management products increased by 245 to a total of 27,803, accounting for 68.45% of the market [3]. Investor Sentiment and Reactions - Many investors have expressed concerns over declining yields, with some considering redeeming their products due to perceived losses [3][4]. - Wealth management companies have emphasized that the current market adjustment is within a reasonable range and advised investors to remain calm and avoid panic selling [4][7]. Economic and Policy Context - The adjustment is attributed to multiple factors, including the unexpected introduction of "anti-involution" policies and the launch of major infrastructure projects, which have shifted market sentiment towards higher-risk assets [4][5]. - The People's Bank of China has taken measures to support market liquidity, including a significant reverse repo operation, which is seen as a positive factor for bond market stability [7]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the current pressures, several wealth management firms maintain a positive outlook for the medium to long-term bond market, citing ongoing economic recovery and the fundamental support for bond pricing [5][6]. - Historical data suggests that a majority of wealth management products tend to recover their net value within one to two months following a market adjustment [7][8]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Wealth management firms recommend a balanced investment approach, suggesting that investors allocate smaller amounts for higher returns while keeping larger amounts in stable assets to mitigate risks [8]. - The current market conditions are viewed as an opportunity to invest in high-quality assets, with the overall redemption pressure on bank wealth management products remaining relatively low compared to previous years [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market has experienced adjustments since July, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to around 1.75%, impacting fixed-income products [1][3] - As of July 31, the 10-year government bond yield was reported at 1.7144%, having increased from 1.6653% on July 15 and peaked at 1.7578% on July 30 [3][2] - The average annualized yield of open-ended fixed-income wealth management products decreased by 0.23 percentage points to 2.81% during the last month [3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Reactions - Many investors have felt the impact of declining yields, with some considering redeeming their fixed-income products due to lower returns [3][4] - Financial institutions have collectively emphasized that the current market adjustments are within a reasonable range and investors should not panic [4][6] Group 3: Economic and Policy Factors - The adjustment in the bond market is attributed to multiple factors, including the unexpected introduction of "anti-involution" policies and the launch of major infrastructure projects, which have shifted market sentiment towards riskier assets [4][5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 789.3 billion yuan on July 25, indicating a proactive monetary policy to support market liquidity [6][7] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, several financial institutions maintain confidence in the medium to long-term outlook for the bond market, citing ongoing economic recovery and fundamental support [5][8] - Historical data suggests that over 70% of fixed-income products that experienced a decline in net value have recovered within two months, indicating resilience in the market [7][8]

近期，债券市场开启调整进程，特别是利率债长端，10年国债收益率从7月15日的1.6653%上行至7月30日的1.7578%，后又于7月31日回落至1.7144%。 债市的调整也传导至投资端，尤其是那些多以债券为打底资产的固收类理财产品。据普益标准监测数据，截至7月21日—27日，理财公司存续理财产品27803 款，环比增加245款，占全市场存续理财产品的68.45%。理财公司存续开放式固收类理财产品（不含现金管理类产品）的近1个月年化收益率的平均水平为 2.81%，环比下跌0.23个百分点。不少投资者切实感受了到收益下滑带来的影响，有的晒出自己持有的固收类理财产品收益截图，感叹收益跌了不少；有的 已经开始考虑要不要赎回产品。 7月以来，债券市场迎来调整，10年国债收益率一路上行至1.75%附近，这一波动传导至以债券为主要底层资产的理财产品，部分固收类产品收益率出现下 调。7月31日，北京商报记者注意到，为帮助投资者客观理解市场变化、理性应对短期波动，多家理财公司集体发声就市场变化作出解读，机构普遍认为， 此轮债市整体波动处于合理范围，无须过度恐慌，从长期来看，经济基本面仍为债市提供支撑，中长期债市的配置价值并 ...

（数据来源：wind资讯，截至20250725） 消息面上，上周债市调整，利差有所走阔，1-3Y回到历史3%以内分位数，但还是低位，分析认为继续调整的可能性依然存 在。普通商金债利差也有走阔，1-5Y20%以内分位数，二级和永续的信用利差也有所修复，目前3Y回到历史15%左右分位 数，性价比凸显。 | 数据日期 | | 2025-07-25 | | | | | | | 分位数起始日期 | | 2017-01-03 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 信用债到期收益率 | (%) | | | | | 历史分位数 | | | | 评级/期限 | 0.5Y | 1Y | 1.5Y | 2Y | 2.5Y | 3Y | 5Y | 0.5Y | 1Y | 2Y | 3Y | 5Y | | 国开债 | 1.46 | 1.52 | 1.57 | 1.64 | 1.67 | 1.68 | 1.70 | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments since July, with a notable "seesaw" effect between the stock and bond markets, leading to large redemptions in bond funds and a general decline in net asset values [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 28, the average return of pure bond funds was -0.05%, with only 40% of products achieving positive returns [2]. - Nearly 40 bond funds have announced large redemptions since July, prompting adjustments in net asset value precision, compared to 19 and 14 funds in June and May, respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The recent decline in the bond market is attributed to a recovery in risk appetite, with preventive redemptions from bank wealth management products contributing to market disturbances [2][4]. - The People's Bank of China's large liquidity injections have alleviated market tension, leading to a slight decline in the yield of the 10-year government bond, indicating a potential turning point in redemption trends [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the bond market may maintain a volatile pattern in the medium term, with potential short-term recovery opportunities [4]. - Factors such as the end of the "anti-involution" trend and the recent monetary policy adjustments may provide a basis for a rebound in the bond market [4][5]. - The upcoming Politburo meeting in July is seen as a critical juncture that could influence market sentiment and performance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments since July, with a notable "seesaw" effect observed between the stock and bond markets, leading to large redemptions in bond funds and adjustments in net asset value precision [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 28, the average return of pure bond funds was -0.05%, with only 40% of products achieving positive returns [3]. - Nearly 40 bond funds have announced large redemptions since July, compared to 19 and 14 in June and May, respectively [3]. Group 2: Redemption and Adjustments - Major fund companies, including Guotai Junan, Huashang, and others, have raised the net asset value precision of their bond funds due to large redemptions [3]. - The adjustment in net asset value precision aims to protect the interests of fund holders from adverse effects caused by the precision of net asset value [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the medium term, with a focus on short-term recovery opportunities [5][7]. - Factors such as the improvement of deflation expectations and the easing of US-China tariff frictions are expected to exert pressure on the bond market [6][7]. - The potential for a rebound in the bond market exists, driven by the recent central bank liquidity injections and the anticipated stabilization of the economic environment [4][8].