证券研究报告 | 策略深度报告 | 中国策略 策略深度报告 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 04 日 银行：趋势的力量，坚定的胆量 ——从白酒、新能源汽车和煤炭牛市看银行未来的时间及空间 核心观点 本轮中信银行指数从 2022 年 11 月开始上涨，至今已持续 2 年零 8 个月。当上证指数 在 2024 年 11 月至 2025 年 6 月连续 8 个月窄幅震荡时，中信银行指数已悄然走出技术 性牛市，近期指数更是周线 8 连阳，股价不断创历史新高。伴随着指数走高，市场对 银行指数是否见顶的讨论逐渐增加。以史为鉴，本篇报告复盘了白酒、新能源汽车和 煤炭三大行业牛市的驱动因素及 DDM 模型股价归因。通过对比，我们认为当下银行 板块或处于"牛市"中段，中信银行指数 PB 有望从 2022 年 10 月的 0.5X 修复至 0.8-0.9X 左右。 ❑ 白酒：2016-2021 年，消费红利释放，外资加速配置 1）2016 年 1 月-2018 年 6 月：房地产价格上涨带来财富效应，居民消费升级背景 下，白酒行业迎来量价齐升。在此期间，盈利为拉动股价上涨的主要因素。 2）2018 年 11 月-2021 年 ...

电力进入迎峰度夏旺季，国家电网表示，截至6月30日，今年国网经营区域内140项迎峰度夏重点工程全部建成投运，将为保障今夏电网安全运行和电力可靠 供应提供有力支撑。 国家电网介绍，这些重点工程建成后，将显著提升电网供电能力，极大解决部分地区负荷过载问题，为迎峰度夏提供坚实电力保障，有效满足经济社会高质 量发展用电需求。 电力股7月4日盘中强势，板块指数放量上涨创1个多月来新高。华银电力近4个交易日3度封板，创3年半来新高。韶能股份、新中港、金房能源、深南电A等 多股大涨。 消息面上，华银电力昨晚公告称预计半年度归母净利润1.8亿-2.2亿元，与上年同期相比将增加1.75亿-2.15亿元。据此计算，公司上半年净利润同比增长 3604%-4426%。 近日，中央气象台连续发布高温黄色预警，中国中东部地区最高气温37℃以上的范围将进一步扩大，局地日最高气温可超过40℃。 南方区域电力市场是中国首个连续运行的区域电力市场，交易范围覆盖广东、广西、云南、贵州、海南五省区。它还是全球规模最大的统一电力现货市场， 转为连续结算后，预计日均交易规模达38亿千瓦时，超过英国、法国、德国用电量规模总和。 中信建投认为，偏紧的区域电 ...

Company Insights - The power sector has shown significant gains, with companies like Shaoneng Co., Shenzhen Nanshan Electric A, and Huayin Power hitting the daily limit up, while GCL-Poly Energy surged over 8% [1] - Huayin Power has achieved three limit-up trades in the last four trading days, and the company announced that its operations are normal with no significant changes in the internal and external business environment [1] - Huayin Power expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million to 220 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 175 million to 215 million yuan compared to the same period last year [1] Industry Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) anticipates a year-on-year increase of approximately 10 million kilowatts in the highest electricity load during the summer peak in 2025 [1] - The power sector is expected to see profitability improvements and value reassessment following multiple rounds of electricity supply-demand tensions [2] - The ongoing market-oriented reforms in the electricity sector are likely to lead to a stable but slight increase in electricity prices, with the promotion of electricity spot markets and auxiliary service market mechanisms [2] - The introduction of a capacity price mechanism reinforces the foundational role of coal power, while the NDRC's efforts to enhance long-term coal supply agreements are expected to improve the actual performance rate of these agreements [2] - The outlook for power operators' performance is optimistic, with expectations of significant improvements in their financial results [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government is actively promoting sustainable development through initiatives like the "Hong Kong Climate Action Blueprint 2050" and "Hong Kong Resource Circulation Blueprint 2035," aiming for a vision of "waste reduction, resource circulation, and zero waste to landfill" [1] - HanKia Design, through its subsidiary Votai Technology, is playing a significant role in building a smart and refined urban resource circulation ecosystem in Hong Kong with its full-stack intelligent recycling solutions [1] Group 2 - Votai Technology's product line addresses various recycling needs, covering household waste, kitchen waste, recyclable resources (plastic, metal, glass, paper, etc.), and construction waste, with over 40 smart recycling bins deployed in key locations across Hong Kong [2] - The smart kitchen waste bin developed by Votai Technology features dry-wet separation protection, long-lasting deodorization technology, and electronic component protection design, effectively addressing pest and odor issues, receiving high praise from customers [2] Group 3 - Votai Technology has developed a digital software platform based on IoT, AI algorithms, and microservices architecture, achieving closed-loop management from data collection to public participation, enterprise operation, and government regulation [3] - The cloud-based big data management platform includes core functions such as user incentives, intelligent scheduling, real-time weighing, and data transparency, enhancing public participation in waste sorting and providing precise measurement for waste fee collection [3] - The platform integrates with the Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department's "Green Reward" system, facilitating real-time conversion of recycling actions into reward points, significantly increasing citizen engagement in waste sorting [3] Group 4 - Votai Technology is accelerating its global market expansion, engaging in deep discussions with partners in countries like Singapore and Australia to explore multi-level applications of intelligent systems and robotics for sustainable environmental solutions [4]

步进电压调节器（ Step Voltage Regulator ）是一种电力电子控制装置，其通过离散式调节机制实现输出电压的阶梯式调整。该设备能够 根据系统需求或负载变化，将输入电压转换为具有特定步进间隔的可调输出电压，从而提供精确的分档电压控制功能。它可广泛使用于 供电距离比较远、供电负荷大、电压波动大、电能质量达不到使用标准的供电线路。也可以用于电压质量不能满足生产需要的工、矿企 业。 0 1 步进电压调节器行业目前现状分析 全球配电网自动化需求提升 随着城镇化、电气化和可再生能源并网的发展，全球各地电网面临电压波动和线路负载变化问题。步进电压调节器作为一种精密控制电 压的设备，广泛用于配电网中压和低压端，保障供电质量与电网稳定性。 中国市场潜力增长中 中国城乡电网改造、"双碳"目标与农村电气化为SVR产品应用提供广阔空间。尤其在中西部地区、风电并网区、以及用户终端电压稳定 性要求高的场合，逐步在采用 SVR 或其国产替代方案。 智能化与数字控制器普及 传统机械式控制正被带通信功能的数字控制器替代，如 Beckwith、Schweitzer、Howard 自研 UVR-1 控制器等，支持远程监测、自动换 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zongshen Power (001696.SZ) has reported strong growth in its operating performance, driven by its two traditional main businesses: general machinery and motorcycle engines, with a projected net profit of 479 million to 564 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 70% to 100% [1][3][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 479 million to 564 million yuan, compared to 282 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a growth rate of 70% to 100% [3][4] - The company anticipates a non-recurring net profit of 456 million to 536 million yuan, also reflecting a year-on-year increase of 70% to 100% [3] - In the first quarter, Zongshen Power achieved operating revenue and net profit of 3.243 billion yuan and 226 million yuan, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 39.11% and 88.28% [3][4] Group 2: Business Segments - The growth in net profit is attributed to the expansion of the general machinery and motorcycle engine businesses, as well as increased investment income from joint ventures [4][5] - The company has maintained profitability since its reverse listing in 2003, with annual profits exceeding 200 million yuan since 2007 [5][7] - Zongshen Power's revenue has shown a consistent upward trend, with revenues reaching 10.506 billion yuan in 2024, marking the first time it surpassed 10 billion yuan [5][8] Group 3: Strategic Development - The company is undergoing continuous transformation and upgrading, expanding from motorcycles to engines, general machinery, and now into new energy power systems and energy storage [1][6][8] - Zongshen Power has invested over 300 million yuan annually in research and development over the past two years to support its technological advancements [2][8] - The company is actively pursuing a dual-driven strategy in the new energy sector, establishing product systems in new energy power systems and energy storage, with significant contributions to revenue from these new business lines [8]

在全球能源格局深度重构、市场需求动态演变的大背景下，内燃机行业正经历着前所未有的变革。中国 内燃机工业协会公布的最新数据显示，2025年前5月内燃机市场呈现出"环比下降、同比增长"的复杂态 势。近半年的数据反映出行业在经济复苏进程中稳步前行的强大韧性，也折射出结构调整与市场波动带 来的现实挑战。与此同时，以潍柴为代表的行业龙头企业勇立潮头，持续加大技术创新投入，为产业升 级注入强劲动能。作为"十四五"规划的收官之年，2025年承载着总结过往、谋划未来的关键使命，行业 多年积累的发展成果与宝贵经验，将成为迈向"十五五"新征程的坚实基石。 短期波动与结构性增长并存 技术创新驱动行业绿色转型 燃气发动机领域的创新成果，如先进的燃烧控制技术、高效的能量转换系统等，不仅提升了发动机自身 的热效率和可靠性，还为整个行业在清洁能源动力研发方向树立了标杆，推动行业朝着绿色、高效、可 持续方向加速前进。 在创新发展的强劲驱动下，内燃机企业纷纷加快新品研发与推出速度。在6月举办的第24届中国(上海) 国际电力设备及发电机组展览会上，潍柴展出的四款产品成为全场焦点，集中展现了行业在技术创新方 面的最新成果与发展趋势。 中国内燃机工 ...

在潍坊市坊子区地质家园小区的地下机房,国内首台磁悬浮地源热泵机组正以每分钟几万转的速度运转, 向小区2.7万平方米区域输送着冷气。这个机组既能用于制冷也能用于供暖,磁悬浮核心技术的"零摩 擦"静音运行,比传统地源热泵平均节电30%,一个采暖季就能给小区节省电费23万元。 文/片 记者 王佳潼 潍坊报道 小区尝鲜"磁悬浮" 投用前,王维想曾组织了6次技术论证会议以确保其可靠性。新机组经过一年的稳定运行,也让运行20年的 三台进口螺杆式老机组彻底"下岗"。 6月底,在地质家园小区5号楼顶楼住户杨先生家中,阵阵凉爽与室外的酷热形成鲜明对比。"我家是顶楼, 夏天最热,空调我只敢开最低挡,现在室内24.7℃已经非常凉爽。"国内首台磁悬浮地源热泵机组用于制冷, 这个小区尝了鲜。 小区的磁悬浮热泵机组,为啥一个采暖季能节省23万元电费?"眨眼就500转,一分钟稳稳3万转。"天瑞重工 总经理郑铁民道破了节能玄机。传统热泵依赖机械轴承支撑转子,转速每分钟几千转,摩擦损耗大、效率 受限、噪音显著。而磁悬浮技术的突破在于,利用强大的电磁场使转子完全"悬浮"于空中,消除机械摩擦, 实现了近乎零摩擦损耗的高效运行。 同样是在潍坊城区, ...

光伏系列专家会- 25H2 供需展望 20250703 摘要 2025 年国内光伏需求呈现集中式稳定建设、户用光伏观望政策、工商 业稳步增长的态势。集中式项目落地时间或延至 2026 年，分布式光伏 受电价政策影响观望，工商业光伏受益于企业用电转型和绿电政策向好。 2025 年全年集中式新装机量预计乐观情况下可达 270 至 289GW，集 中式占比可能超过 45%，主要依赖去年提前框定的需求和央国企的组件 采购，新增项目受 136 号文影响，收益率下降超 30%，多处于观望状 态。 光伏需求预计稳步增长，受益于能源转型和双碳目标，大基地规划和应 用场景拓展（如绿电直联、林泰园区）将支撑需求，独立电站和微网系 统发展解决区域用电问题，降低配套设施费用。 2025 年 7 月多晶硅产量预计 10.5 至 10.6 万吨，较 6 月增长，但头部 企业开工率仅 50%左右，多处于停产检修状态。硅片排产维持在 55GW 左右，电池片降至 57GW 左右，组件维持在 50 几瓦左右。 组件排产维持较高位，部分用于出口中东非、亚太及斯坦国家，供给大 型地面电站及工商业项目，上半年国内抢装导致海外市场库存不足，欧 洲市场旺 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements in green bio-manufacturing, particularly focusing on the synthesis of aliphatic short-chain diamines and diols from renewable resources, highlighting the importance of reducing reliance on fossil resources and addressing environmental concerns [3][4][5]. Group 1: Importance of Green Bio-Manufacturing - The chemical industry is a significant part of the national economy, with over 100,000 types of fine chemical products globally. Traditional production methods heavily rely on fossil resources, leading to resource depletion and CO2 emissions [4]. - Transitioning to renewable resources for bio-manufacturing is crucial for achieving a clean, low-carbon, and sustainable environment. China has set goals to replace traditional chemical raw materials with bio-based materials [4][5]. Group 2: Advances in Bio-Synthesis - Significant progress has been made in the bio-synthesis of 1,3-propanediamine, 1,4-butanediamine, and their corresponding diols, with commercial applications already realized by companies like DuPont and Genomatica, achieving cost reductions of 37% and energy savings of 30% compared to petrochemical processes [5][6]. - Companies such as Ningxia Yipin Biotechnology and Shanghai Kaisi Bio-Industry have successfully scaled up the production of 1,5-pentanediamine using whole-cell catalysis, claiming a 30% cost reduction compared to traditional methods [5][6]. Group 3: Challenges in Bio-Synthesis - Despite advancements, challenges remain in the bio-synthesis of most diamines and diols, including high production costs and the lack of natural biosynthetic pathways for certain compounds [6][7]. - Research is focused on developing bio-synthesis routes using non-food biomass and one-carbon feedstocks to reduce fossil resource dependence and CO2 emissions [6][7]. Group 4: Metabolic Pathways and Carbon Cycling - The article outlines the carbon cycling and metabolic pathways involved in utilizing renewable resources for bio-manufacturing, emphasizing the role of biomass derived from agriculture, forestry, and waste [8][9]. - Various metabolic pathways for sugars derived from lignocellulosic biomass have been identified, which can be utilized for synthesizing short-chain diamines and diols [11][13]. Group 5: Synthesis Routes for Specific Compounds - Detailed synthesis routes for 1,3-propanediamine and 1,3-propanediol are discussed, highlighting the use of key amino acid precursors and various microbial pathways [20][21]. - The synthesis of 1,4-butanediamine and 1,4-butanediol involves multiple pathways, including those utilizing ornithine and arginine, with significant advancements in microbial engineering to enhance yields [23][24]. - The article also covers the synthesis routes for 1,5-pentanediamine and 1,5-pentanediol, focusing on the use of lysine as a precursor and the challenges in achieving high yields [25][26].