Economic Overview - The economic performance of Jiangmen City from January to May 2025 is characterized as "generally stable," despite a continuous decline in fixed asset investment [2] - Key economic indicators such as industrial added value and retail sales continue to show positive growth [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value of Jiangmen's scale above designated size increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a slight deceleration of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - The manufacturing sector saw a growth of 3.6%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector declined by 3.4%, and the mining sector experienced a significant drop of 36.9% [3] - Among 21 major industrial products, 16 categories maintained positive growth, with notable increases in stainless steel daily products (62,400 tons), furniture (3.8795 million pieces), and motorcycles (2.0451 million units), all exceeding 20% growth [3] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Jiangmen decreased by 26.5% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - State-owned investment fell by 26.9%, while private investment decreased by 23.0% [4] - Investment in the real estate sector also saw a decline of 26.1%, with a 14.9% drop in sales area and a 10.2% decrease in sales revenue [4] Foreign Trade - Jiangmen's foreign trade value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, reaching 80.08 billion yuan, which is higher than the national and provincial average growth rates [5] - Exports amounted to 68.65 billion yuan, growing by 9.9%, ranking fourth in the province, while imports fell by 9.3% to 11.43 billion yuan [6] - Private enterprises showed a rapid growth in imports and exports, totaling 46.25 billion yuan, a 12.4% increase, accounting for 57.8% of the total [6] Export Performance - The top five export products included household appliances (9.92 billion yuan, 6.3% growth), motorcycles (7.15 billion yuan, 55.9% growth), and general machinery (4.59 billion yuan, 19% growth), collectively representing 42.1% of total exports [7] - Exports of ships and paper products also saw significant growth, with increases of 32.3% and 19.9%, respectively [7] Retail and Fiscal Revenue - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 52.369 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [8] - Local general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year-on-year, although the growth rate slowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [8]

Investment Chain - Prices of copper, aluminum, lead, tin, and silver have risen since June 2025. Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to 3.70% as of May 2025, with real estate development investment declining by 10.70% and manufacturing fixed asset investment down to 8.50% [1][2] - Infrastructure investment growth rate has also decreased to 10.42%. Since June 2025, prices of gold, zinc, and nickel have fallen, while coal prices slightly decreased to 663 RMB/ton [1][2] Consumption Chain - Retail sales growth rate has increased, with nominal growth rebounding to 6.40% in May 2025 and cumulative growth rising to 5.00%. Automobile sales growth rate for May 2025 increased to 11.15% [2][3] - The cumulative growth rate for commercial housing sales has declined to -3.62%. Retail sales of home appliances surged with a growth rate of 56.98% in May 2025 [2][3] Export Chain - Export growth rates to the US, Japan, and ASEAN have decreased, while exports to the EU have increased. In May 2025, the export growth rate for toys, lighting, coke, coal, steel, ships, plastics, and auto parts rose, while agricultural products, furniture, and refined oil exports saw declines [3][4] - The electronic export growth rate increased to 21.17% in May 2025, while textile and clothing exports fell to 1.98% [3][4] Price Chain - Oil prices rose, with WTI reaching 64.37 USD/barrel on June 24, 2025. Prices for PVC and MDI have decreased, with PVC at 4680 RMB/ton and pure MDI at 17100 RMB/ton as of June 20, 2025 [4] - Pork prices dropped to 14.45 RMB/kg on June 11, 2025, while new credit increased to 620 billion RMB in May 2025 [4]

Investment Chain - Since June, prices of copper, aluminum, lead, tin, and silver have increased. In May 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment decreased to 3.70%, while the decline in real estate development investment narrowed to -10.70%. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing fixed asset investment fell to 8.50%, and infrastructure investment decreased to 10.42% [4][8] - In June 2025, prices of copper, aluminum, lead, tin, and silver have risen, while prices of gold, zinc, and nickel have decreased. The price of thermal coal slightly decreased to 663 RMB/ton, and the price of coking coal also slightly declined. The average price of ordinary cement saw a minor decrease, while steel prices have risen [4][8] Consumption Chain - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of social consumption has increased, with automobile sales showing a year-on-year growth rate of 11.15% in May 2025. The nominal year-on-year growth rate for May 2025 rebounded to 6.40%, and the cumulative nominal year-on-year growth rate rose to 5.00% [4][9] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales area saw a larger decline, dropping to -3.62%. The retail sales of home appliances in May 2025 increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 56.98% [4][9] Export Chain - In May 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of export amounts to the United States, Japan, and ASEAN decreased, while the growth rate of exports to the European Union increased. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of exports for toys, lamps, coke, coal, steel, ships, plastics, and auto parts rose, while the growth rates for agricultural products, furniture, refined oil, crude oil, and aluminum decreased [4][10] - The OECD leading indicator for the United States fell to 100.26 in May 2025. The electronic export amount's year-on-year growth rate increased to 21.17%, while the textile and clothing export amount's growth rate decreased to 1.98% [4][10] Price Chain - Oil prices have risen, with WTI reaching 64.37 USD/barrel on June 24, 2025. The price of PVC dropped to 4680 RMB/ton, and the prices of pure MDI and polymer MDI decreased to 17100 RMB/ton and 16200 RMB/ton, respectively [4][11] - The price of pork decreased to 14.45 RMB/kg on June 11, 2025, while cotton prices increased and sugar prices decreased. The increase in new credit in May 2025 reached 620 billion RMB, and the year-on-year growth rate of life insurance premium income rose to 1.15% [4][11]

Economic Indicators - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month, indicating resilience despite external tariff impacts[9] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, surpassing the previous value of 5.1%[11] - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with real estate development investment declining by 10.7%[13] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,420.566, with a weekly decline of 0.51%[2][31] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.16%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.45%[31] - Daily average trading volume decreased to 12,150.34 billion yuan, down by 1,566.44 billion yuan from the previous week[31] Investment Trends - Equipment investment is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by long-term special government bonds aimed at equipment upgrades[5] - The manufacturing sector's investment growth is slowing, with a notable decline in electric equipment and real estate sectors[13] - The financial sector showed strength with a 1.37% increase, while consumer sectors faced a decline of 3.61%[31] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a total of 9,603 billion yuan in reverse repos this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan[6][19] - The upcoming seasonal transitions and government bond financing are expected to impact liquidity, with a focus on the central bank's monetary policy actions[20] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include tighter monetary policy, unexpected economic recovery leading to rising bond yields, and deteriorating local fiscal conditions[35] - The market may continue to experience "high-low cuts," with a focus on dividend sectors and low-position technology stocks as rotation opportunities[34]

Economic Overview - Xi'an's economy shows a stable upward trend with industrial production growing rapidly, fixed asset investment remaining stable, and a recovering consumer market [1][2]. Industrial Production - In the first five months, the industrial added value in Xi'an increased by 13% year-on-year. Key sectors include electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, which grew by 53.3%, and automobile manufacturing, which saw a 35% increase. New energy vehicle production rose by 37.7% [1]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in Xi'an increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Industrial investment grew by 18.6%, accounting for 20.4% of total fixed asset investment, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the previous year. Notably, investment in industrial technological upgrades surged by 30.8% [2]. Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods in Xi'an reached 114.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The "old for new" policy positively impacted sales, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment retail sales growing by 16.4% and communication equipment sales increasing by 86.4% [2]. Foreign Trade - Xi'an's total import and export value reached 190.965 billion yuan in the first five months, marking an 11.5% year-on-year increase. Exports alone amounted to 133.567 billion yuan, growing by 16.2%. General trade saw a significant increase of 33.6%, accounting for 37.8% of total trade [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the month - on - month decline in second - hand housing prices in all tiers of cities widened, while the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. New housing prices in first - and second - tier cities turned down month - on - month [6]. - The year - on - year decline in the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was 1.7%, narrowing by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The prices in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 3.5% and 4.9% year - on - year respectively, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points [6]. - The year - on - year decline in the sales price of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities was 2.7%, narrowing by 0.5 percentage points. The prices in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 6.1% and 6.9% year - on - year respectively, with the decline narrowing [6]. - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [6]. - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,132.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 20,317.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [7]. - From January to May 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 19,194.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [7]. - From January to May 2025, the national real estate development investment was 3,623.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - The GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rates from 2022 Q4 to 2025 Q1 were 3%, 4.7%, 6.5%, 5%, 5.3%, 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, 5.4%, 5.4% respectively [9]. - The contributions of different industries to GDP growth and their year - on - year growth rates in different quarters from 2022 to 2025 are presented in the figures [9][15]. Industry Industrial Growth Rate - The year - on - year growth rates of the added value of major industries in May 2025 are as follows: coal mining and washing increased by 5.5%, oil and gas extraction increased by 5.3%, and the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 11.6% [6]. Major Output of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - The output of major industrial products such as crude oil, coal, and steel from May 2024 to May 2025 is presented in the figure [26]. Industry Electricity Consumption - The year - on - year growth rates of electricity consumption in major industries from December 2023 to April 2025 are presented in the figure [34]. Industrial Enterprise Profits - From January to April 2025, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size were 2,117.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [37]. - The profits of different industries showed different trends. For example, the profit of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 24.5%, while the profit of the coal mining and washing industry decreased by 48.9% [37]. Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of April 2025, the finished - product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%, and the inventory growth rate decreased slightly [48]. Price Index CPI - In May 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 0.4%, and non - food prices remained flat [53]. PPI - In May 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The industrial producer purchase price index decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month [60].

Group 1: Market Performance - The SW Construction Decoration Index decreased by 2.24%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.45%, resulting in a relative return of -1.79 percentage points [1] - The top three sub-industries with the largest weekly declines were state-owned infrastructure enterprises (-1.54%), national infrastructure enterprises (-1.68%), and private infrastructure enterprises (-2.07%) [1] - The top three sub-industries with the highest annual growth were ecological landscaping (+10.84%), decorative curtain walls (+7.86%), and specialized engineering (+3.82%) [1] Group 2: Company Performance - The top five individual stocks with the highest weekly gains were Shen Shui Institute (+15.45%), ST Jiao Investment (+7.1%), Chengdu Road and Bridge (+6.51%), Huilv Ecology (+6.49%), and Shikong Technology (+6.29%) [1] - The bottom five individual stocks with the largest weekly declines were Zhi Te New Materials (-18%), Ao Ya Shares (-17.6%), Huo Pu Shares (-11.78%), Zhenhai Shares (-11.25%), and ST Hua Wang (-10.71%) [1] Group 3: Industry Changes - National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to May 2025, national fixed asset investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year, manufacturing investment rose by 8.5%, and infrastructure investment (full caliber) grew by 10.4% [2] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, while real estate investment decreased by 10.7% [2] Group 4: Key Company Developments - China National Chemical Engineering signed a business contract for the second phase of a 500,000-ton soda ash plant project in Kazakhstan, with a total amount of $337 million, accounting for 19.8% of the company's 2024 revenue [2] - China Chemical's new contracts signed from January to May 2025 totaled 150.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.92% [2] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The industry is currently weak, but regional investments may gain elasticity with the deepening of national strategic layouts [2] - Recommended undervalued state-owned enterprises include China Chemical, China Railway, and China Railway Construction, with a focus on China Communications Construction and China Metallurgical Group [2] - Recommended private enterprises include Zhi Te New Materials and Honglu Steel Structure, with a focus on Zhongyan Dadi, Shenzhen Ruijie, and Huayang International [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued weakness in fixed asset investment, with a need for stimulus policies to take effect [2]. - The overall industry performance shows a weekly decline of 2.24%, underperforming against major indices [3][4]. - Key statistics from January to May 2025 indicate a year-on-year increase in total fixed asset investment of 3.7%, with manufacturing investment up by 8.5% and infrastructure investment (including all sectors) up by 10.4% [10][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The construction industry experienced a weekly decline of 2.24%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index which fell by 0.51% [3]. - The best-performing sub-sectors for the week were state-owned enterprises in infrastructure, with declines of 1.54% [4]. Key Company Developments - 中工国际 signed a business contract for a 500,000-ton soda ash plant project in Kazakhstan, valued at $337 million, representing 19.8% of its 2024 revenue [12]. - 中国化学 reported a total of 150.8 billion yuan in new contracts signed from January to May 2025, a decrease of 9.92% year-on-year [13]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the overall industry remains weak, but regional investments may gain momentum as national strategic layouts deepen. Recommended low-valuation state-owned enterprises include 中国化学, 中国中铁, and 中国铁建, while private enterprises like 志特新材 and 鸿路钢构 are also highlighted [2][10].

西安：1-5月全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长13.0% 智通财经6月21日电，据西安发布消息，1-5月，全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长13.0%；全市固定资 产投资(不含农户)同比增长0.6%；全市限额以上企业(单位)消费品零售额1145.37亿元，同比增长2.2%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was a volatile upward trend, with the 30 - year variety showing a relatively strong trend. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market, and Treasury bond futures may experience a slightly more volatile trend. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [5][37][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a volatile upward trend. By the end of the week, the 30 - year Treasury bond rose 0.71%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond rose 0.09% [5] Consumption Data - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41326 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 184324 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [8] - In May, driven by the trade - in policy, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture in units above the designated size increased by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively. The sales of basic daily necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum. The retail sales of automobiles in units above the designated size increased by 1.1% year - on - year [10] Investment Data - From January to May, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. Among them, the broad - based infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, the narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, the manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, and the real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [13] Real Estate Market - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 35315 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, and the sales volume was 34091 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [15] - In the first half of June, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10% [17] - In May, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The sales prices of second - hand residential properties in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [21] Service Industry and Industrial Production - In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year. Among them, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries showed relatively fast growth [23] - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [26][28] Unemployment Rate - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the same as the same period last year [31] Capital Market Interest Rates - This week, the capital market interest rates remained stable. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65%, a slight decline. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on June 20 was the same as last month [34] Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The market logic is that from January to May, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was lower than market expectations, while May's consumption growth was significantly better than expected. Exports maintained a relatively high positive growth, industrial production grew steadily and rapidly, the unemployment rate decreased slightly, and the social financing scale and credit data were close to market expectations. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market [37] - The trading strategy is that trading - type investments should adopt a band - operation strategy [38]