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LLDPE:标品排产偏低维持,期现货继续共振
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 01:41
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - LLDPE futures and spot market continue to resonate with low standard product production. The spot market has tightened liquidity in the short - term, with improved trade - sample transactions. The outer - market quotation is rising, and the long - term import profit is open, but downstream factories are mostly cautious. The raw material end has mixed trends, and the supply side has some changes with potential future supply - demand pressure [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 is 6820, with a daily increase of 0.80%. The trading volume is 640471, and the open interest decreased by 10862. The 05 - contract basis is - 120 (compared to - 66 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread is - 35 (compared to - 36 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In the north, the price is 6700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day); in the east, it is 6850 yuan/ton (up from 6750 yuan/ton the previous day); in the south, it is 6900 yuan/ton (up from 6850 yuan/ton the previous day) [1]. Spot News - The futures rally continues. The spot market has short - term liquidity tightening due to active short - covering and hedging transactions. PE spot prices are rising actively, and the east - China basis has strengthened and turned positive. Downstream product profits are compressed, but rigid demand orders are maintained, and trade - sample transactions have improved significantly. Outer - market quotations are rising, and long - term import profits are open, with increased importer transactions, while downstream factories are cautious [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The raw material crude oil price is stabilizing and fluctuating, the ethylene monomer segment is weakening, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes has improved. The PE futures market has continued to rebound, with most transactions concentrated in the middle - stream, and downstream has not chased the price to replenish inventory. The near - end downstream agricultural film market is weakening, the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand, but the willingness of middle and lower - stream to hold inventory has weakened after the recent decline. The upstream is offering discounts to sell at the end of the year, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly, with a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, the maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [3].
燃料油早报-20260114
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 01:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and it weakened slightly after the holiday. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low but remained weak year - on - year. The high - sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil had a significant inventory build - up, the high - sulfur floating storage had a significant drawdown, ARA's residual fuel oil had a slight inventory build - up, Fujairah's residual fuel oil had an inventory drawdown, the high - sulfur floating storage had an inventory drawdown, and EIA's residual fuel oil had a slight inventory build - up. The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, having a short - term positive and long - term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics interruption. The arrival premium of Merey crude oil at the end of December remained around - 12. The high - sulfur spot market remained loose, and attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium and discount of heavy raw materials recently. The low - sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 7 to January 13, 2026, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 19.81, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 9.97, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 1.23, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by 26.90, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 16.93, LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by 9.84 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 7 to January 13, 2026, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 26.04, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 23.27, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 10.53, Singapore Gasoil M1 increased by 3.65, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 1.87, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 16.48 [1][9]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 7 to January 13, 2026, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 1.0, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference increased by 3.6. The data for FOB 380cst, FOB VLSFO, and 380 basis on January 13 were not provided [2]. Domestic FU Data - From January 7 to January 13, 2026, FU 01 increased by 15, FU 05 increased by 4, FU 09 increased by 15, FU 01 - 05 increased by 11, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 11, and FU 09 - 01 remained unchanged [2]. Domestic LU Data - From January 7 to January 13, 2026, LU 01 increased by 24, LU 05 increased by 44, LU 09 increased by 31, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 20, LU 05 - 09 increased by 13, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 7 [3].
燃料油早报-20260113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 06:20
1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and after the holiday, it weakened slightly. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low point but remained weak year-on-year. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil stocks increased significantly, high-sulfur floating storage decreased significantly, ARA's residual fuel oil stocks increased slightly, Fujairah's residual fuel oil stocks decreased, high-sulfur floating storage decreased, and EIA's residual fuel oil stocks increased slightly. The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, having a short-term positive and long-term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics disruptions. The arrival premium for Merey crude in late December remained around -12. The high-sulfur spot market remained loose. Attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium of heavy raw materials recently. The low-sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 0.76, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 0.63, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.58, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 0.35, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 0.98, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.95, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.39 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 1.60, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 2.67, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 8.50, Singapore Gasoil M1 increased by 1.31, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by 1.46, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 1.19 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the FOB price of 380cst decreased by 3.66, the FOB price of VLSFO increased by 3.80, the 380 basis increased by 0.21, the high-sulfur domestic - foreign price difference increased by 0.6, and the low-sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.5 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of FU 01 increased by 10, FU 05 decreased by 37, FU 09 decreased by 9, FU 01 - 05 increased by 47, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 28, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 19 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of LU 01 increased by 33, LU 05 increased by 1, LU 09 increased by 8, LU 01 - 05 increased by 32, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 7, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 25 [3].
LPG早报-20260109
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-09 02:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Venezuelan event may affect crude oil and then disrupt LPG prices; the overseas LPG market still has support in the near - term [1] - From the perspective of the domestic market valuation, the difference between domestic and foreign prices is high, but the basis is low; the spot is strong, but the feedback of poor PDH profits may appear, and subsequent drivers may be bearish [1] - Follow - up attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH device conditions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data - From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, prices of华南液化气,华东液化气,山东液化气,丙烷CFR华南,丙烷CIF日本,CP预测合同价,山东醚后碳四,山东烷基化油,纸面进口利润, and主力基差 changed. For example, the price of华南液化气 increased from 4590 to 4855, and the纸面 import profit increased from - 80 to 234 [1] - On January 8, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of华南液化气 decreased by 10,华东液化气 increased by 10, and山东液化气 decreased by 20, etc. The daily change of the纸面 import profit was 126, and that of the主力基差 was 36 [1] 3.2 Daily Viewpoint - On Thursday, the futures market fluctuated mainly. The 02 - 03 spread was 103 (+18), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 170 (-11). As of 8 p.m., the FEI and CP paper prices were 505.24 and 518.24 US dollars respectively, down 8 and 6 US dollars from the previous trading day [1] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the domestic futures market fluctuated. It soared after the high - opening of CP on Wednesday and then declined. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 spread was - 184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+30) [1] - Domestic civil gas prices showed differentiation. The cheapest deliverable product was Shandong civil gas at 4250 (-20); the price in East China was 4376 (-8), and that in South China was 4590 (+80). The overseas market rose; the official price of January CP opened higher than expected, with propane and butane at 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively [1] - Both domestic and foreign markets strengthened, mainly because the overseas market fell on Friday while the domestic market was closed. The PG - FEI reached 85 (+25). The arrival premium of propane in East China was 66 (-18), and the FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane in January were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively. Freight rates declined. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 15 (down 5.5 month - on - month) [1]
LPG早报-20260108
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic LPG market showed mixed trends this week. The internal market fluctuated, with prices rising on Wednesday due to the high - opening of CP and then falling back. The external market rose, and the 1 - month CP official price opened higher than expected. Overall, the Venezuelan event may affect crude oil and disturb LPG prices. The overseas LPG market has near - term support. The internal valuation is high relative to the external, but the basis is low. The feedback of strong spot but poor PDH profits may emerge, and subsequent drivers may be bearish. Attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH device conditions [1] Summary by Directory Daily Situation - On Wednesday, the LPG futures market remained strong, possibly due to the rising prices of the LPG external market and downstream products. The 02 - 03 spread was 83 (-11), and the 03 - 04 spread was -165 (+20). As of 8 pm, the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices were 513.25 and 524.25 US dollars respectively, down 3.5 and 1.5 US dollars from the previous trading day [1] Weekly Situation - This week, the internal market fluctuated. On Wednesday, it soared after the high - opening of CP and then declined. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 spread was -184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+30). Domestic civil gas prices were divided. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4250 (-20); prices in East China were 4376 (-8), and in South China were 4590 (+80). The external market rose, and the 1 - month CP official price opened higher than expected, with propane and butane at 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively. The internal and external prices strengthened mainly because the external market fell on Friday while the internal market was closed. The PG - FEI reached 85 (+25). The arrival - at - shore premium of propane in East China was 66 (-18), and the 1 - month FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively. Freight rates decreased. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -15 (down 5.5 month - on - month) [1]
玻璃纯碱日度数据-20260107
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 01:22
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report presents daily data on glass and soda ash, including price changes, basis, spreads, production and sales, and inventory status [1]. Group 3: Summary of Key Points by Category Glass - **Prices**: On January 6, 2026, the low - price of 5mm large plates in Shahe was 946, unchanged from January 5 and down 4 from December 30, 2025; the low - price of large plates in Hubei was 970, unchanged from the previous two time points; FG05 contract was 1092, up 5 week - on - week and 11 day - on - day; FG09 contract was 1194, up 3 week - on - week and 11 day - on - day; FG01 contract was 956, up 6 week - on - week and 8 day - on - day [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: 01 Shahe basis was - 10 on January 6, down 10 week - on - week and 8 day - on - day; FG:1 - 5 was - 136, up 1 week - on - week and down 3 day - on - day; FG:5 - 9 was - 102, up 2 week - on - week and unchanged day - on - day [1]. - **Profits**: North China natural gas profit was - 392.4, down 1.9 week - on - week and 2.1 day - on - day; South China natural gas profit was - 188.1, unchanged; 01FG盘面North China natural gas profit was - 382.6, up 11 week - on - week and 4.6 day - on - day; 01FG盘面South China natural gas profit was - 178.3, up 12.9 week - on - week and 6.7 day - on - day [1]. - **Production and Sales**: Shahe's production and sales rate was 135, Hubei's was 118, East China's was 105, and South China's was 134. Shahe factory's production and sales were relatively high, but Shahe traders had average shipments at low prices, and the spot - futures shipments were poor; Hubei's factory transactions were weak, and the mid - stream spot - futures transactions in Hubei were also poor [1]. Soda Ash - **Prices**: On January 6, 2026, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1150, unchanged week - on - week and up 10 day - on - day; SA05 contract was 1190, down 23 week - on - week and up 13 day - on - day; SA09 contract was 1259, down 18 week - on - week and up 10 day - on - day; SA01 contract was 1111, down 24 week - on - week and up 16 day - on - day [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: SA01 contract basis was 39, up 24 week - on - week and down 6 day - on - day; SA:1 - 5 was - 79, down 1 week - on - week and up 3 day - on - day; SA:5 - 9 was - 69, down 5 week - on - week and up 3 day - on - day [1]. - **Cost and Profits**: North China ammonia - soda process cost was 1333.6, up 11.4 week - on - week and 1.9 day - on - day; North China ammonia - soda process profit was - 223.6, down 21.4 week - on - week and up 8.1 day - on - day; North China combined - soda process profit was - 277.2, up 5.7 week - on - week and 2.8 day - on - day [1]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price of heavy soda ash at the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1110, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1150. The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry increased significantly on Monday [1].
LPG早报-20260107
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 01:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Daily Viewpoint**: On Monday, the futures market showed strong performance due to positive sentiment in energy - chemical products caused by geopolitical factors, rising overseas prices, and strong LPG spot prices. The 02 - 03 spread was 94 (-10), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 185 (-25). As of 8 pm, FEI and CP paper prices rose by $4.25 and $8.25 respectively compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Weekly Viewpoint**: The domestic market fluctuated this week, rising after the high - opening of CP on Wednesday and then falling back. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 spread was - 184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 30 to 6398. Domestic civil gas prices were differentiated, with the cheapest deliverable being Shandong civil gas at 4250 (-20). Overseas prices rose, and the January CP official prices for propane and butane were 520/525 (+35/+30). The domestic - overseas price relationship strengthened. Overall, the Venezuela event may affect crude oil and thus LPG prices, and the overseas LPG market has near - term support. Domestically, the domestic - overseas price ratio is high but the basis is low. The strong spot and poor PDH profits may lead to negative feedback, and future drivers may be bearish. Attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH plant conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil showed various changes. For example, South China LPG rose from 4510 on December 29, 2025, to 4865 on January 6, 2026. The daily change on January 6, 2026, showed a 5 - point increase in South China LPG, 44 points in East China LPG, etc. [1] - **Spread and Basis Data**: The 02 - 03 spread and 03 - 04 spread changed both on a daily and weekly basis. The basis of 02 also changed. For example, on a daily basis, the 02 - 03 spread was 94 (-10), and on a weekly basis, it was 119 (+7) [1]. - **Overseas Market Data**: FEI and CP paper prices rose on January 6. The January CP official prices for propane and butane were higher than before. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 15 (down 5.5 from the previous period). East China propane arrival premium, AFEI, Middle East, and US propane January FOB premiums also changed [1].
沥青早报-20260107
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 01:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on asphalt - related indicators such as basis, spreads, contract prices, trading volumes, and profits. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis values for different regions (Shandong, East China, South China) and their changes from 12/5 to 1/6 are presented. For example, the Shandong basis (+80) (non - Jingbo) was 42 on 12/5 and - 4 on 1/6, with a daily change of - 21 on 1/6 [2]. - **Spread**: Spreads between different contract months (01 - 03, 02 - 03, 03 - 06) are shown. For instance, the 01 - 03 spread was - 25 on 12/5 and - 51 on 1/6, with a daily change of - 8 on 1/6 [2]. 3.2 Futures Contracts - **BU Main Contract (02)**: The price of the BU main contract (02) was 2948 on 12/5 and 3144 on 1/6, with a daily increase of 11 on 1/6. The trading volume on 1/6 was 505629, a decrease of 182313 from the previous day, and the open interest was 466983, an increase of 2031 [2]. - **Combined Contracts**: The combined contract quantity increased from 4690 on 12/5 to 11260 on 1/6, with an increase of 3000 [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Crude Oil**: The price of Brent crude oil was 63.8 on 12/5 and 61.8 on 1/6, with an increase of 1.0 on 1/6 [2]. - **Asphalt Spot**: Spot prices for different regions (Jingbo, Shandong non - Jingbo, Zhenjiang, Foshan) are given. For example, the price of Shandong (non - Jingbo) asphalt was 2910 on 12/5 and 3060 on 1/6, with a decrease of 10 on 1/6 [2]. 3.4 Profit - **Asphalt - Marey Profit**: The asphalt - Marey profit was 131 on 12/5 and 468 on 1/6, with a decrease of 48 on 1/6 [2]. 3.5 Weekly Changes - Weekly changes in various indicators are provided, such as a 64 change in an unnamed indicator, 124 changes in some other indicators, and - 8 change in the 01 - 03 spread [6].
LPG早报-20260106
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG market showed internal differentiation this week, with the internal market fluctuating. It soared after the high - opening of CP on Wednesday and then declined. The external market rose, and the official price of January CP was higher than expected. The overall market was affected by factors such as the Venezuela event, oil prices, and PDH device conditions. The internal - external valuation was high, but the basis was low, and the feedback of poor PDH profits might occur, with a bearish driving force [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On January 5, 2026, the prices of civil LPG in East China, Shandong, and South China were 4413 (+37), 4400 (+150), and 4860 (+270) respectively. The price of ether - post carbon four was 4470 (+30). The lowest delivery location was Shandong. The basis was 216 (-49), the 02 - 03 month spread was 109 (+2), and the 03 - 04 month spread was - 180 (+14). As of 20:00 PM, the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices were 512 and 517.5 US dollars respectively [1]. Weekly Data - This week, the internal market fluctuated. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 month spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 month spread was - 184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+30). The domestic civil LPG was differentiated, with the cheapest delivery product being Shandong civil LPG at 4250 (-20), East China at 4376 (-8), and South China at 4590 (+80). The external market rose, and the official price of January CP for propane and butane was 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively. The internal - external market strengthened. The PG - FEI reached 85 (+25). The arrival premium of propane in East China was 66 (-18), and the FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane in January were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively. Freight rates declined, and the FEI - MOPJ spread was - 15 (a month - on - month decrease of 5.5) [1].
沥青早报-20260106
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 01:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on asphalt including basis, spreads, futures contract prices, trading volume, open interest, spot prices, and profit. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis and Spreads - **Basis**: The Shandong basis (+80) (non - Jingbo) 01 - 03 changed from 48 - 28 on 12/4 to 17 - 43 on 1/5 with a daily change of 14; the East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) changed from 88 to - 33 with a daily change of 49; the South China basis (Foshan warehouse) changed from - 2 to - 63 [3]. - **Spreads**: The 02 - 03 spread changed from - 17 to - 8; the 03 - 06 spread changed from - 37 to 16 with a daily change of 39 [3]. Futures Contracts - **BU Main Contract (02)**: The price of the BU main contract (02) increased from 2952 on 12/4 to 3133 on 1/5, with a daily increase of 111 [3]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume increased from 290157 on 12/4 to 687942 on 1/5, with a daily increase of 376665 [3]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest increased from 429348 on 12/4 to 464952 on 1/5, with a daily increase of 38946 [3]. Spot Prices - **Jingbo**: The spot price of Jingbo increased from 2950 on 12/4 to 3100 on 1/5, with an increase of 120 [3]. - **Shandong (non - Jingbo)**: The spot price increased from 2920 on 12/4 to 3070 on 1/5, with an increase of 180 [3]. - **Zhenjiang Warehouse**: The spot price increased from 3040 on 12/4 to 3100 on 1/5, with an increase of 160 [3]. - **Foshan Warehouse**: The spot price increased from 2950 on 12/4 to 3070 on 1/5, with an increase of 170 [3]. Profit - **Asphalt Marrow Profit**: The asphalt Marrow profit increased from 163 to 513 [3]. Weekly Changes - Various indicators showed weekly changes such as 82, 82, 115, - 8, - 1, 41, 125, 301769, 22249, 4080, - 1.2, 160, 210, 210, 240, 192, 2025 [6].