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棉系数据日报-20251106
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 05:11
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market has support below and pressure above in the near term. There is continuous pressure from new cotton supply, but yarn mills are actively replenishing their inventories. In the long term, policies and weather are the key factors. The strategies are to conduct reverse arbitrage on the January - May spread when prices are high and to layout long positions for distant - month contracts when prices are low [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 5 was 13615, up 80 (0.59%) from November 4; CF05 was 13620, up 65 (0.48%); CF01 - 05 was - 5, up 15 from the previous day [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on November 5, the price was 14627, down 13 (-0.09%); in Henan it was 14856, down 34 (-0.23%); in Shandong it was 14873, unchanged (0.00%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1012, down 93 [3] Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures CY on November 5 was 19820, up 25 (0.13%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index was 20520, unchanged (0.00%) [3] US Cotton Spot - CT (USD/磅) was unchanged at 65.15; the arrival price was 75.20, down 0.3 (-0.40%); 1% quota pick - up price was 13158, down 51 (-0.39%); sliding - scale duty pick - up price was 14069, down 29 (-0.21%) [3] Spread Data - The yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6205, down 55; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 911, up 22 [3] Other Data - The domestic - foreign spread (spot) was 1715, up 51 [4]
沥青早报-20251103
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 04:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) changed from 126 on 9/30 to 6 on 10/30, with a daily change of 10 on 10/30 [3]. - The East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was 66 on 9/30 and 106 on 10/30, with no daily change on 10/30 [3]. - The South China basis (Foshan warehouse) increased from 56 on 9/30 to 126 on 10/30, with a daily change of 20 on 10/30 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread changed from 17 on 9/30 to 15 on 10/30, with a daily change of -2 on 10/30 [3]. - The 12 - 03 spread decreased from 5 on 9/30 to -6 on 10/30, with a daily change of -7 on 10/30 [3]. - The 01 - 02 spread was -5 on 9/30 and -5 on 10/30, with a daily change of -1 on 10/30 [3]. 3.2. Futures Contracts - The BU main contract (01) price dropped from 3424 on 9/30 to 3254 on 10/30, with a daily change of -20 on 10/30 [3]. - The trading volume decreased from 229,798 on 9/30 to 212,219 on 10/30, with a daily change of -21,636 (-9%) on 10/30 [3]. - The open interest decreased from 316,935 on 9/30 to 338,671 on 10/30, with a daily change of -1,392 on 10/30 [3]. - The warehouse receipts decreased from 13,040 on 9/30 to 9,120 on 10/30, with a daily change of -800 on 10/30 [3]. 3.3. Spot Market - Brent crude oil price changed from 65.4 on 9/30 to 65.0 on 10/30, with a daily change of 0.1 on 10/30 [3]. - Jingbo asphalt price decreased from 3580 on 9/30 to 3260 on 10/30, with a daily change of -20 on 10/30 [3]. - Honghai asphalt price decreased from 3470 on 9/30 to 3180 on 10/30, with a daily change of -10 on 10/30 [3]. - Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt price decreased from 3490 on 9/30 to 3360 on 10/30, with a daily change of -20 on 10/30 [3]. - Foshan warehouse asphalt price was 3480 on 9/30 and 3380 on 10/30, with no daily change on 10/30 [3]. 3.4. Profits - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit decreased from 379 on 9/30 to 247 on 10/30, with a daily change of -12 on 10/30 [3]. - The Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit decreased from 838 on 9/30 to 690 on 10/30, with a daily change of -6 on 10/30 [3].
燃料油早报-20251103
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 02:09
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Fuel Oil Morning Report [3] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] Group 2: Market Data - Rotterdam | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 1.02 [4] | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -1.59 [4] | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.23 [4] | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -3.51 [4] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | 1.92 [4] | | LGO - Brent M1 | -0.54 [4] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -2.61 [4] | Group 3: Market Data - Singapore | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 2.18 [4] | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 3.37 [4] | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 5.55 [4] | | Singapore GO M1 | 1.45 [4] | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -0.05 [4] | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -5.18 [4] | Group 4: Market Data - Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/30 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -14.46 [5] | | FOB VLSFO | -3.42 [5] | | 380 Basis | -1.05 [5] | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 1 [5] | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.7 [5] | Group 5: Market Data - Domestic FU | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -6 [5] | | FU 05 | -1 [5] | | FU 09 | -4 [5] | | FU 01 - 05 | -5 [5] | | FU 05 - 09 | 3 [5] | | FU 09 - 01 | 2 [5] | Group 6: Market Data - Domestic LU | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 13 [6] | | LU 05 | 16 [6] | | LU 09 | 15 [6] | | LU 01 - 05 | -3 [6] | | LU 05 - 09 | 1 [6] | | LU 09 - 01 | 2 [6] | Group 7: Core Views - This week, the 380 fuel oil crack spread oscillated, the monthly spread weakened month - on - month, the basis oscillated and weakened, the European HSFO crack spread strengthened, and the EW spread weakened significantly. The 0.5 low - sulfur crack spread in Singapore oscillated at a low level, and the monthly spread and basis oscillated at a low level [6]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil inventory increased, floating storage increased, ARA's residual fuel oil inventory decreased, floating storage increased, and EIA's residual fuel oil inventory decreased slightly [6][10]. - In terms of shipments, Russia's residual fuel oil shipments rebounded this week but were still low year - on - year. Russia's overall residual fuel oil shipments in October decreased month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's residual fuel oil shipments oscillated at a high level, the UAE's shipments decreased month - on - month. Singapore's arrivals were neutral this week, and domestic residual fuel oil arrivals increased month - on - month [10]. - This week, the domestic - foreign spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounded significantly. The external low - sulfur market remained weak, the Singapore high - sulfur market had a poor basis, but the EW spread and raw material premiums supported the 380 crack spread, showing a short - term oscillating pattern [10].
生猪:矛盾积累,远端淡季中枢或进一步下移
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-02 11:41
Report Title - "Pigs: Contradictions Accumulating, Potential Further Decline in the Central Price during the Distant Off - season" [1] Report Date - November 2, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The central price of live pig spot and futures may further decline. For the spot market, the supply pressure is large and the demand is expected to weaken, leading to a lower price center. For the futures market, due to factors such as inventory pressure and supply increase, the price centers of relevant contracts are also expected to decline [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review (October 27 - November 2) 3.1.1 Spot Market - Pig prices fluctuated strongly. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 19.95 yuan/kg (last week: 19.4 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan was 12.53 yuan/kg (last week: 11.98 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,546 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The supply side saw enterprises slightly reduce volume at the end of the month, while the willingness of individual farmers to sell increased. The demand side was weakened as rising prices suppressed demand and the willingness to store in cold storage decreased. The average slaughter weight nationwide this week was 124.51KG (last week: 124.75KG), a 0.19% decrease [2] 3.1.2 Futures Market - Pig futures prices showed weak performance. The highest price of the LH2601 contract this week was 12,445 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,810 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,815 yuan/ton (last week: 12,170 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2601 contract was 715 yuan/ton (last week: - 195 yuan/ton) [2] 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (November 3 - November 9) 3.2.1 Spot Market - Live pig spot prices are expected to run weakly. Low prices in October stimulated demand and cold storage, and the widening price difference between fat and standard pigs drove the enthusiasm for secondary fattening. However, there was a negative feedback at the terminal, limiting further price increases. From the supply perspective, the market supply is in a continuous increasing stage, and the supply pressure is large. From the demand perspective, although low prices in October stimulated demand, the demand is expected to weaken in November. Overall, the price center will further decline [3] 3.2.2 Futures Market - The price of the LH2601 contract closed at 11,810 yuan/ton on October 31. The large - scale entry of secondary fattening in October led to a negative feedback at the terminal, a decrease in slaughter volume, and a weakening of spot prices. There is a large pressure to reduce weight in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to fully digest inventory pressure before the Spring Festival. The supply pressure is expected to be realized in the March and May contracts. It is expected that the price center will further decline, with a short - term support level of 11,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 12,300 yuan/ton for the LH2601 contract [4] 3.3 Other Data - This week's basis was 715 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 monthly spread was 440 yuan/ton [8] - This week's average weight was 124.51KG (last week: 124.75KG). In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, a 5.9% month - on - month increase; in September, pork imports were 80,600 tons, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease [12]
沥青早报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:00
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 6 on 10/30 with a daily change of 10; the East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was 106 with no daily change; the South China basis (Foshan warehouse) was 126 with a daily change of 20 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread was 15 on 10/30 with a daily change of -2; the 12 - 03 spread was -6 with a daily change of -7; the 01 - 02 spread was -5 with a daily change of -1 [3]. - The BU main contract (01) was 3254 on 10/30, down 20 from the previous day [3]. 2. Trading Volume, Open Interest, and Warehouse Receipts - The trading volume on 10/30 was 212,219, a decrease of 21,636 (-9%) compared to the previous day; the open interest was 338,671, a decrease of 1,392; the warehouse receipts were 9,120, a decrease of 800 [3]. 3. Spot Prices - Brent crude oil was $64.9 on 10/30, up $0.5 from the previous day [3]. - Jingbo's spot price was 3,260 on 10/30, down 20 from the previous day; Hongrun's was 3,180, down 10; Zhenjiang warehouse's was 3,360, down 20; Foshan warehouse's remained at 3,380 [3]. 4. Profits - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was 251 on 10/30, down 33 from the previous day; the Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit was 693, down 26 [3].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20251027
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 06:19
Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Instead, it gives individual ratings for different commodities, such as "follow oil price rebound, short PXN on rallies" for paraxylene, "long PX short PTA, unilateral trend rebound" for PTA, etc. [2] Core Views - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical commodities. It takes into account factors like supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and macro - economic events to evaluate the price trends of each commodity. For example, for some commodities, it expects short - term rebounds due to factors like improved demand expectations or cost support, while for others, it anticipates long - term downward pressure due to high supply and weak demand [2][7][39] Summary by Commodity Paraxylene (PX) - **Price Trend**: Unilateral price short - term rebound, PXN short on rallies [2][7] - **Fundamentals**: This week, there were few changes in PX devices. Domestic device operating rate was 85.9% (+1%), and Asian overall load operating rate was 78.5% (+0.5%). Next week, some devices will restart or postpone maintenance. PX supply is slightly tight, and PTA load has increased [7] Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) - **Price Trend**: Unilateral trend is strong in the short - term [2][8] - **Fundamentals**: New devices have started operation, and some devices have adjusted their loads. Polyester load remains stable, downstream orders have improved, and inventory has decreased. Market demand expectations are positive [8] Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Price Trend**: Short - term rebound, positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage [2][9] - **Fundamentals**: Oil - based plant operating rate has decreased, and import arrivals are lower than expected. Some devices are under maintenance, and coal - based device profits are negative [9] Rubber - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][10] - **Fundamentals**: Futures trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. China's natural rubber imports in October are expected to decrease, and tire production capacity utilization has increased [11][13] Synthetic Rubber - **Price Trend**: Central price moves up supported by macro - sentiment [2][14] - **Fundamentals**: Futures trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices of some products have risen. But the industry faces high supply pressure, and inventory has increased. However, due to many maintenance plans in November, the fundamentals are expected to improve marginally [14][17] Asphalt - **Price Trend**: Follow oil price fluctuations [2][19] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume and positions have decreased. Spot prices in some regions have increased, refinery operating rate has increased slightly, and inventory has changed little [19][32] Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) - **Price Trend**: Mainly sideways [2][34] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have fluctuated slightly. Raw material oil prices have rebounded, but supply pressure will increase in the future [34][35] Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Trend**: Weak trend [2][38] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices are flat, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. Trade war, oil price, high supply, and low downstream profits jointly form downward pressure, but there is a short - term rebound due to factors like oil price rebound and supply reduction [38][39] Caustic Soda - **Price Trend**: Far - month valuation is suppressed [2][42] - **Fundamentals**: Alumina enterprises' high inventory puts pressure on caustic soda spot prices. Although there is new demand in some regions, the impact of alumina production reduction cannot be ignored, and cost has decreased [42][44] Pulp - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][48] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices are stable. Supply pressure persists, and demand is weak [49][50] Glass - **Price Trend**: Raw sheet prices are stable [2][52] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable, and downstream orders are average [53] Methanol - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][55] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased, trading volume has decreased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable. Port inventory has increased slightly, and the market is under supply pressure, but there is support from port logistics [56][58] Urea - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][60] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. Short - term rebound is due to macro - events and increased demand from compound fertilizer factories, but long - term pressure remains due to high supply and weak demand [61][63] Soda Ash - **Price Trend**: Spot market changes little [2][65] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable. Device supply has increased slightly, and downstream demand is average [66] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Price Trend**: Limited upward drive, focus on cost changes [2][68] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen, trading volume and positions have changed. Some industrial device operating rates have increased. CP paper prices have decreased [68][72] Propylene - **Price Trend**: Short - term weak sideways due to loose supply and demand [2][68] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume and positions have changed. Spot prices have decreased slightly, and supply and demand are relatively loose [68] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Trend**: Low - level sideways [2][75] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices are weak, and spot prices are stable. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, inventory is high, and export growth may slow down [75] Fuel Oil - **Price Trend**: Uptrend continues, strong in the short - term [2][78] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen, trading volume and positions have changed. Spot prices in various regions have increased, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil has decreased [78] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Price Trend**: Weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [2][78] - **Fundamentals**: Similar to fuel oil, but the price increase is relatively smaller [78] Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Price Trend**: Sideways consolidation [2][80] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have changed, trading volume and positions have changed. Freight rates of some routes have increased, and shipping capacity has changed [80]
聚烯烃:短期止跌,中期震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-26 12:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market for polyolefins is expected to stop falling in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term. For PP, the short - term market rebounds reasonably, but in the long - term, it may be in a weakly fluctuating pattern. For PE, it is in a fluctuating market in the short - term [1][5][8]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Overview PP - **Supply**: This week, the domestic polypropylene production was 77.76 tons, a decrease of 2.92% from last week. Next week, the planned maintenance loss is expected to remain high, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to stay around 75.8%. - **Demand**: The average downstream industry start - up rate shows an upward trend. With the approaching of Double Eleven and the cold weather, the demand for terminal products is slightly supported. - **Viewpoint**: Although there are downward pressures, recent factors such as the rebound of oil prices and phased production cuts on the supply side lead to a short - term market rebound. In the long - term, the downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally solve, so it may be in a weakly fluctuating pattern. - **Valuation**: The basis and monthly spread are weak, and the short - term valuation is moderately weak [5][7]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is weakly fluctuating, with an upper pressure of 7000 - 7050 and a lower support of 6500 - 6550; for inter - period trading, buy 05 and sell 01 in the short - term; no recommendation for cross - variety trading [7]. PE - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers is 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period. In October, the maintenance volume decreased compared to September, and later the supply pressure will gradually increase. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films is strong, which supports the market and helps reduce inventory. - **Viewpoint**: The rebound of crude oil prices and stable downstream demand lead to a short - term fluctuating market. - **Valuation**: The basis fluctuates, the monthly spread weakens, and the L - LL spread fluctuates and weakens, with a moderate valuation. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is range - bound, with an upper pressure of 7000, 7200 for the 01 contract and a lower support of 6850; no recommendation for inter - period and cross - variety trading [8]. 2. Polypropylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The price difference between powder and granular materials and the price difference between copolymer and drawn materials have rebounded [17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The average capacity utilization rate in this period is 75.94%, a decrease of 2.28% compared to the previous period [22]. - **Maintenance Situation**: Many devices are in long - term or short - term maintenance, and the planned maintenance loss is expected to remain high [24]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new capacity is 470.5 tons, with a capacity increase of 10.5% [26]. - **Inventory**: The production and trader inventories have decreased. The total commercial inventory is 92.53 tons, a decrease of 6.08% compared to the previous period [32]. - **Cost**: The increase in crude oil prices has raised the oil - based production cost [34]. - **Profit**: The profits of oil - based and PDH production methods have declined [40]. - **Downstream Industry**: BOPP has stable start - up, increased order days, and decreased finished - product inventory, but the profit is still at a low level; the start - up of tape master rolls has increased, but the order days have decreased; the start - up and order days of plastic weaving have remained flat; the start - up of non - woven fabrics has remained flat, and the finished - product inventory is moderately high; the start - up and order days of CPP have increased [42][50][53][58][61]. 3. Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The L - LL spread fluctuates and declines, and the HD - LL spread fluctuates and rises. The inventory of HDPE and LDPE in social sample warehouses has decreased, while that of LLDPE has increased [66][69]. - **Start - up and Production**: The start - up rate and production have decreased. The capacity utilization rate is 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period, and the production this week is 64.81 tons, a decrease of 0.37% from last week [71][73]. - **Maintenance**: The maintenance loss in October has decreased compared to September [74]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new capacity is 613 tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [75]. - **Inventory**: The production and social inventories have decreased. The sample inventory of producers is 51.46 tons, a decrease of 2.81% compared to the previous period [80]. - **Cost**: The increase in crude oil prices has raised the oil - based production cost [81]. - **Profit**: The profit of the oil - based production device has declined [87]. - **Downstream Industry**: The start - up and order days of agricultural films and packaging films have increased; the start - up rates of pipes and hollow products are lower than the same period last year [89][91][92].
生猪:短期存在托底情绪,矛盾继续积累
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-26 11:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, there is a bottom - support sentiment in the pig market, but contradictions continue to accumulate. The rebound of spot prices in October led to an extension of the inventory accumulation cycle due to increased second - round fattening enthusiasm, postponing the pressure. The futures market is expected to enter an adjustment phase [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (10.20 - 10.26) - **Spot Market**: Pig prices showed a strong - side oscillation. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 19.4 yuan/kg (last week: 20.4 yuan/kg), the pig price in Henan was 11.98 yuan/kg (last week: 11.38 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1546 yuan/head (last week: 1566 yuan/head). The average national slaughter weight was 124.75KG, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06%. The supply tightened slightly as group slaughter progress was fast and individual farmers were reluctant to sell. Low prices stimulated demand, and the slaughter volume increased significantly [2]. - **Futures Market**: Pig futures prices showed a strong - side performance. The highest price of the LH2511 contract was 11615 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11200 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11490 yuan/ton (last week: 11050 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2511 contract was 490 yuan/ton (last week: 330 yuan/ton) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (10.27 - 11.2) - **Spot Market**: Pig spot prices will oscillate. After the sharp decline after the National Day holiday, low prices stimulated demand and second - round fattening. Supply is expected to increase continuously, but low prices have boosted demand. The inventory accumulation cycle has been extended, and the pressure has been postponed. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment after the rebound at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2511 contract price closed at 11490 yuan/ton on October 24. Short - term spot prices are expected to oscillate upward, but the market is expected to enter an adjustment phase. The support level for the LH2511 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12000 yuan/ton. Traders should pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Month - spread**: This week's basis was 490 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 month - spread was - 685 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9%; pork imports were 80,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.02%. The average slaughter weight this week was 124.75KG [10].
沥青早报-20251023
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 00:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - There is no clear core view explicitly stated in the given content. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Monthly Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) decreased from 197 on 9/23 to 141 on 10/22, a daily change of -92 [3]. - The East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) decreased from 47 on 9/23 to 81 on 10/22, with a daily change of -92 [3]. - The South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) decreased from 77 on 9/23 to 71 on 10/22, a daily change of -102 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread decreased from 36 on 9/23 to 19 on 10/22, a daily change of -14 [3]. - The 12 - 03 spread increased from 23 on 9/23 to 9 on 10/22, a daily change of 4 [3]. - The 01 - 02 spread increased from -4 on 9/23 to -4 on 10/22, a daily change of 3 [3]. 2. Futures - The BU main contract (01) price increased from 3373 on 9/23 to 3249 on 10/22, a daily change of 92 [3]. - The trading volume increased from 280,475 on 9/23 to 389,960 on 10/22, a daily change of 110,926 [3]. - The open interest decreased from 425,862 on 9/23 to 368,817 on 10/22, a daily change of -2,998 [3]. - The warehouse receipts remained at 13,040 from 10/16 to 10/22, with no change [3]. 3. Spot - Brent crude oil price increased from 66.6 on 9/23 to 61.3 on 10/22, a daily change of 0.3 [3]. - Jingbo's price decreased from 3610 on 9/23 to 3310 on 10/22, a daily change of -10 [3]. - Hongrun's price remained at 3310 from 10/21 to 10/22, with no change [3]. - Zhenjiang Warehouse's price remained at 3330 from 10/20 to 10/22, with no change [3]. - Foshan Warehouse's price decreased from 3450 on 9/23 to 3320 on 10/22, a daily change of -10 [3]. 4. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit decreased from 334 on 9/23 to 464 on 10/22, a daily change of -24 [3]. - The Ma Rui - type refinery's comprehensive profit decreased from 792 on 9/23 to 905 on 10/22, a daily change of -13 [3].
LPG早报-20251022
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 00:46
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PG main contract significantly increased due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. The basis was -20 (-334), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250); East China was 4345 (-39), and South China was 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The external market prices tumbled. FEI monthly spread was -10 US dollars (+5), and CP monthly spread was -4 US dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane increased significantly, with South China at 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped sharply, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). PDH - to - propylene profit declined. Inventory pressure was high, with short - term supply pressure large, but supported by chemical demand and the expected recovery of combustion demand. PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12 pct), with Zhongjing Phase II restored, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises were expected to gradually increase their loads next week. Although the spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis fell sharply to negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Tuesday, civil gas showed differentiation, with a rebound in Shandong. In East China, it was 4264 (-74), in Shandong 4200 (+110), and in South China 4420 (-30). Ether - after carbon four was 4390 (-10). The lowest deliverable area was Shandong, with a basis of 49 (+197), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 151 (+9). FEI declined and CP fluctuated, at 465 (+2) and 440 (-2) US dollars/ton respectively [1]. Weekly View - The PG main contract rose significantly because of macro and geopolitical news. The basis decreased by 334 to -20, and the 11 - 12 monthly spread increased by 59 to 137. Domestic civil gas prices dropped substantially. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas with a price reduction of 250 to 4200; East China was 4345 (-39), and South China was 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. External market prices dropped sharply. FEI and CP monthly spreads increased by 5 US dollars, reaching -10 and -4 respectively. The internal - external price differences PG - CP, PG - FEI, and FEI - CP all increased. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased by 26 to 78. Freight rates decreased significantly. FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window was still open. PDH - to - propylene profit decreased. Inventory pressure was high, but there was support from chemical demand and an expected recovery of combustion demand. PDH operating rate decreased by 2.12 pct to 68.76%. Although spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis dropped sharply, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances [1].