光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 周一因阵亡将士纪念日美国休市，WTI 7 月原油即期合约无收盘 | 震荡 | | | 数据。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.04 美元至 64.74 美元/桶，跌幅 | | | | 0.06%。SC2507 以 455.9 元/桶收盘，下跌 0.5 元/桶，跌幅 0.11%。 | | | | 据欧佩克代表透露，欧佩克+将 7 月产量决策会议调整至 5 月 31 | | | | 日，原定于 6 月 1 日召开。此次会议可能会决定 7 月的产量，此 | | | | 前有消息人士称，7 月份日产量可能会再增加 41.1 万桶。伊朗表 | | | | 示，其为亚洲买家设定的 6 月轻质原油官方售价 OSP 为较阿曼/ | | | | 迪拜原油均价每桶升水 1.80 美元，高于上月的 1.65 美元升水。伊 | | | | 朗 6 月重质原油官方售价较阿曼/迪拜原油均价每桶贴水 0.15 美 | | | | 元，上月为贴水 0.35 美元。周 ...

| 11/12 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月26日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周国际油价总体震荡，布伦特07合约周度小幅下跌0.46%，SC07合约跌0.75%。上周五特朗普威,励6月1日起对欧盟 征收50%关税,此举将再次引发欧盟油品需求承压预期,同时欧洲对美出口汽油若未得豁免将在北美进入驾驶旺季 后拉动美国汽油裂解。关于6月1日OPEC+8国会议延续7月41.1万桶/天快速增产的担忧同样令市场承压，但周五美伊 第五轮核谈未达成协议,特朗普亦表示或因俄乌军事冲突持续而对俄罗斯加大制裁。制裁油供应风险仍对 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump has threatened to escalate the trade war by suggesting a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, which has led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][3] - Gold prices surged over $150 last week due to various factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's, but the extension of the tariff deadline to July 9 may lead to a potential price correction [3][1] - The WTI crude oil futures experienced fluctuations, initially dropping but then rebounding to above $61 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4][6] Group 2 - The gold market is currently showing signs of potential adjustment after reaching a high of $3365, with technical indicators suggesting a possible downward movement [3][1] - Oil prices are in a volatile state, with support observed at the $60 mark, and the market is expected to remain in a range-bound trading pattern unless significant news or data emerges [6][4] - The overall investment strategy emphasizes risk management, highlighting the importance of avoiding significant losses while navigating market fluctuations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil prices will continue to fluctuate due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase discussions, non - compliance of some member countries, and the deadlock in US - Iran nuclear negotiations [1]. - The absolute price volatility of fuel oil (FU and LU) is expected to increase in the short term, and the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread can be continued [3]. - The absolute price volatility of asphalt (BU) is expected to increase in the short term. BU may be a relatively weak variety among oil products, and a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with a short - term oscillatory mindset [5]. - The price of natural rubber will oscillate in the short term [5][7]. - The price fluctuation of methanol may increase, and attention should be paid to MTO device复产 plans and Iranian device changes [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, international oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July. Saudi Arabia warned non - compliant members. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation is at a deadlock, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The oil price will oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2507) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2507) fell. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may be tight before June, and high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested. The absolute price volatility of FU and LU is expected to increase, and the LU - FU spread has shown an inflection point [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2507) rose. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. Supply may rise in June, but some refineries may reduce production next week. Demand is supported in the north but weak in the south. The absolute price volatility of BU is expected to increase, and it may be a relatively weak variety [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures contracts fell. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light. An EO - EG联产 device stopped working, and two synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol devices in Henan will be shut down for maintenance. PX supply supports PXN, and PTA devices are restarting. Polyester operating load is high, and ethylene glycol port inventory is expected to decrease. Both PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts (RU2509, NR, BR) showed different trends. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises decreased. The low production at the beginning of rubber tapping and rainfall in overseas production areas support raw material prices. Rubber imports increased, and Qingdao inventory decreased slightly. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased due to domestic device maintenance but is still at a high level in the past five years. Iranian device load has dropped, and the expected arrival volume in the far - month is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. MTO device operation has not changed much, and port and inland inventories are low. The price fluctuation of methanol may increase [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) showed different trends. There are many upstream maintenance activities, and supply pressure is not large. Demand has increased due to tariff reduction, and inventory has decreased. However, both inventory and supply are at high levels, and polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume production, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Domestic real - estate construction is stable, but demand will weaken in the off - season. The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 23, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price change rate, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in the June 1 meeting, and a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in July is one of the options under discussion [13]. - Turkey's imports of Urals crude oil will increase in May as its top refinery Tupras has resumed purchasing Russian crude oil, which is traded below the Western price cap of $60 per barrel [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [30][32][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [60][62][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy - Chemical Research, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China) and a mid - level economist title [77]. 3.6 Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][5][6][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI and Brent prices declined, while SC2507 rose. News of Israel's potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities led to a sharp early - morning jump. API data showed an increase in US crude inventories and decreases in gasoline and distillate inventories. Kazakhstan's production growth and OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production increase, along with the uncertainty of US - Iran negotiations, cause the oil price to continue oscillating [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil rose, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil fell. In April 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may remain tight before June, and the demand is fair. High - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested due to increased summer power generation demand. The volatility of the absolute prices of FU and LU is expected to increase, and the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread can be continued [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose. In June, supply may increase due to profit recovery, but some refinery turnarounds may temporarily reduce the operating rate. Demand is supported to some extent by order deliveries and project starts in the north, but is weak in the south, especially with the upcoming rainy season. The absolute price volatility of BU is expected to increase, and it may be a relatively weak product among oil products, so a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures all declined on Tuesday. In April 2025, online retail sales and social consumer goods retail data showed mixed trends. An MEG plant had a power outage, and a PTA plant's restart was postponed. PX supply is tight, and PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to oscillate in the short term [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed different trends. In April 2025, China's synthetic rubber and rubber tire production increased year - on - year. The export of rubber tires also increased. Qingdao's rubber inventory decreased slightly. Due to low - yield at the beginning of the domestic and foreign tapping seasons and rainfall in overseas areas, the raw material price is supported, and the natural rubber price will oscillate in the short term [5][6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol prices showed different levels in different regions. The domestic supply decreased due to increased plant maintenance but remained at a high level in the past five years. The Iranian plant load dropped, and the far - month arrival volume is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. The MTO plant operating rate changed little, and the port and inland inventory levels are low. The methanol price volatility may increase [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, polyolefin prices were in a certain range. Currently, there are many upstream turnarounds, so the overall supply pressure is not large. With the tariff reduction, downstream enterprises increased raw material procurement, and the inventory decreased. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, so polyolefins are expected to oscillate [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume operation, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Domestic real - estate construction is temporarily stable, keeping the开工 rate of pipes and profiles relatively stable, but demand will weaken as the real - estate construction enters the off - season. In the short term, the fundamental pressure is relieved due to maintenance disturbances, but the PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 6 - month contract closed down $0.13 to $62.56/barrel, a 0.21% decline; Brent 7 - month contract closed down $0.16 to $65.38/barrel, a 0.24% decline; SC2507 closed up 3.2 yuan to 467.8 yuan/barrel, a 0.69% increase. US intelligence on Israel's potential strike on Iran led to a nearly 3% jump in early - morning oil prices. API data showed a 2.499 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventories, a 3.238 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventories, and a 1.401 - million - barrel decrease in distillate inventories. Kazakhstan's May oil production increased by 2%, ignoring OPEC+ pressure [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2507) rose 0.86% to 3042 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2507) fell 0.56% to 3556 yuan/ton. In April 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports were 525,500 tons, a 21.07% month - on - month decline and a 54.11% year - on - year increase. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may remain tight before June, and the demand is fair. High - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract (BU2506) rose 0.8% to 3541 yuan/ton. In June, supply may increase due to profit recovery, but some refinery turnarounds may temporarily reduce the operating rate. Demand is supported in the north but weak in the south, especially with the upcoming rainy season [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.92% at 4732 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed down 1.39% at 4413 yuan/ton. In April 2025, online retail sales and social consumer goods retail data showed mixed trends. An MEG plant had a power outage, and a PTA plant's restart was postponed. PX supply is tight, and PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to oscillate [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed different trends. In April 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 743,000 tons, a 15.2% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative production from January to April was 2.947 million tons, an 11.3% year - on - year increase. The rubber tire production in April was 102 million pieces, a 3.1% year - on - year increase. The export of rubber tires also increased. Qingdao's rubber inventory decreased slightly [5][6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2315 yuan/ton, the Inner Mongolia north - line price was 2067.5 yuan/ton, the CFR China price was $260 - 264/ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $330 - 335/ton. The domestic supply decreased due to increased plant maintenance but remained at a high level in the past five years. The Iranian plant load dropped, and the far - month arrival volume is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene was 7130 - 7350 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is not large due to many upstream turnarounds, and demand increased with tariff reduction, leading to inventory decline. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume operation, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Real - estate construction is temporarily stable, but demand will weaken as it enters the off - season [9]. 3.2 Day - to - Day Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 21, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The API reported that for the week ending May 16, US crude inventories increased by 2.499 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.238 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.401 million barrels [13]. - Trade and shipping data showed that Russia's April seaborne fuel oil and vacuum gas oil exports increased by 8.5% month - on - month to about 4 million tons, as offline primary refining capacity decreased by 21% compared to March [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and para - xylene [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, para - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][36][37]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [46][48][51]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal - external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [62][64][66]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, and LLDPE production profit [71][75]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market [77]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University. She has won multiple awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [78]. - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis [79]. - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China), a title of intermediate economist, and experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - On April 28, the US imposed sanctions on three vessels suspected of transporting refined oil to the Houthi armed forces, and large - scale power outages in Europe affected crude oil processing. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, oil price volatility is expected to be high [1] - In May, the reduction of East - West arbitrage arrivals will support the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and high - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power generation demand, but low raw material procurement demand will still exert pressure [2] - In May, asphalt refinery production is expected to increase, and the northern market demand is gradually releasing, but the terminal project start - up rate is still low, and there is room for further improvement in demand [2] - Near the May Day holiday, the downstream polyester yarn sales have a phased increase, and the polyester start - up load remains high before the holiday. However, there are holiday expectations during the May Day holiday, and the PTA and ethylene glycol markets show different trends [2][3][4] - As of April 27, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased. The supply of rubber is advancing, and the downstream holiday days during the May Day holiday are more than last year, with a weak fundamental outlook [3][4] - In May, the supply of methanol is expected to increase, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decline, and the basis is expected to weaken [6] - In May, the demand for polyolefins is in the off - season, the downstream start - up slows down, the supply of the light - hydrocarbon route is affected by import tariffs, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - The real - estate construction is entering the off - season, which affects the demand for PVC downstream products. The export may decline, and the PVC price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the basis weakening [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the price of crude oil futures declined. The US sanctions and European power outages affected the market. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, investors are advised to pay attention to risks and hold light positions [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of fuel oil futures rose on Monday. The low - sulfur market is supported by the reduction of arbitrage arrivals, and the high - sulfur market is affected by power generation demand and raw material procurement [2] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rose on Monday. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is gradually releasing but still has room for improvement [2] - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester - related futures rose on Monday. The downstream sales had a phased increase, but there are holiday expectations during the May Day holiday, and the inventory and supply of different products vary [2][3][4] - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber - related futures showed different trends on Monday. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, but the downstream holiday days increased, with a weak fundamental outlook [3][4] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is expected to increase in May, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decline, and the basis is expected to weaken [6] - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin futures are in a volatile state. In May, the demand is in the off - season, the downstream start - up slows down, and the supply of the light - hydrocarbon route is affected by tariffs [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market prices in different regions showed small changes. The real - estate off - season affects downstream demand, and the export may decline, with prices expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on April 29, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the latest basis rate's quantile in historical data [8] 3.3 Market News - Barclays Bank lowered its 2025 crude oil price forecast by $4 to $70 per barrel and set the 2026 forecast at $62 per barrel, citing trade tensions and OPEC+ production strategy adjustments [10] - The US Treasury Department raised the estimate of the net borrowing scale for the second quarter to $514 billion, higher than the February estimate, due to the failure to raise the federal debt ceiling [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1主力合约价格**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][14][16] - **4.2主力合约基差**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, from 2021 - 2025 [24][26][30] - **4.3跨期合约价差**: The report provides the price difference charts between different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [37][39][43] - **4.4跨品种价差**: The report shows the price difference and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external market, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [55][57][59] - **4.5生产利润**: The report presents the cash - flow and production - profit charts of products like ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [69][70][71]