Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2026 is expected to be a significant year for the market due to multiple positive factors, with a solid foundation for a bull market and an early onset of spring market activity [1] Group 2 - From a macro policy perspective, 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, with various departments intensively introducing supporting industrial policies and investment plans, creating a favorable liquidity environment through coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [1] Group 3 - On the funding side, institutional funds represented by stock ETFs showed early signs of investment in December, and the influx of foreign capital driven by the "opening red" of insurance funds and currency appreciation is expected to strengthen the spring market trend [1] Group 4 - In terms of fundamental expectations and industrial cycles, with the narrowing decline in PPI, corporate profits are anticipated to enter a phase of moderate recovery in 2026, making the speculation on profit inflection points a crucial support for the market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2026 is expected to be a significant year for the market due to multiple positive factors, with a solid foundation for a bull market and an early onset of spring market activity [1] Group 2 - From a macro policy perspective, 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, with multiple departments intensively introducing supporting industrial policies and investment plans, creating a favorable liquidity environment through coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [1] Group 3 - On the funding side, institutional funds, represented by stock ETFs, have shown early signs of inflow in December, and the combination of insurance funds' "opening red" and foreign capital inflow driven by currency appreciation is expected to strengthen the spring market trend [1] Group 4 - In terms of fundamental expectations and industrial cycles, with the narrowing decline in PPI, corporate profits are anticipated to enter a mild recovery phase in 2026, making the speculation on profit inflection points a crucial support for the market [1]

Market Performance - The A-share market opened positively in 2026, with all three major indices rising: Shanghai Composite Index at 4023.42 points (+1.38%), Shenzhen Component Index at 13828.63 points (+2.24%), and ChiNext Index at 3294.55 points (+2.85%) [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 25,672 billion yuan, an increase of 5,015 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4,100 stocks rising [1] Market Outlook for 2026 - Securities firms are generally optimistic about the A-share market in 2026, expecting the bull market to continue, driven by policy shifts and improved liquidity [2] - Analysts suggest that the current market is in the mid-stage of a bull market, with a potential for index fluctuations but overall upward movement [2] - Key trends supporting the market include the restructuring of international monetary order, advancements in AI applications, and performance realization in China's innovative industries [2] Sector Analysis and Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on three main lines for investment: growth sectors, external demand breakthroughs, and cyclical reversals [4] - Key sectors to watch include new energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, military industry, machinery, and computing [4] - The AI growth sector and cyclical sectors benefiting from commodity price recovery are highlighted as areas of high certainty for investment [5] - Specific themes to focus on include new materials, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, and nuclear power [4][5]

1月5日，和讯投顾陈爱国表示，大盘成功突破4000点，此时有人高呼风险降临，但我却坚定地认为，牛 市才刚刚拉开帷幕，4000点不过是一道开胃小菜。接下来，我将从汇率、资金、技术这三个关键维度， 为大家剖析为何如此看好后市行情。 所以，大家别再被"恐高"情绪所困扰，4000点之后，下一目标或许就是4500点，甚至5000点。明天，我 将为大家详细拆解牛市下半场的布局策略，究竟是继续追科技股，还是抄底白马股？ 首先，人民币升值引发了资产重估浪潮。近期，人民币净值强势升破7.0大关，一举创下两年新高。这 一升值现象的背后，是外资对中国资产重新定价的积极信号。回顾历史数据，每当人民币升值1%，A 股估值就可能随之提升3% - 5%。在当前全球"去美元化"进程加速的大背景下，中国经济呈现出"东升西 降"的良好态势，人民币资产已然成为全球资金的避风港，外资持续流入A股就是最有力的证明。就像 2015年，北向资金净流入创下三年新高，这些嗅觉敏锐的"聪明钱"正争分夺秒地抢筹A股，行业增量资 金不断涌入，驱动着慢牛格局的形成，而充足的资金面正是牛市得以持续的坚实根基。 其次，资金面的积极变化为牛市提供了强大动力。当前，A股融资 ...

Market Overview - The market opened higher, indicating an upward trend, with more stocks rising than falling. The early market pattern showed both the main index and the ChiNext Index closing positively, although the advantage was slight [2] - The previous trading day's closing commentary suggested that a significant move was unlikely, with the market needing to break above 3988 to target 4034, while maintaining above 3960 was crucial [2] Technical Analysis - The short-term technical outlook indicates that the critical support level is around 3950, and staying above this level is necessary for a bullish sentiment. The key range for the main index is between 3947 and 3910, with a strong performance expected only if it remains above the upper boundary [3] - For the afternoon session, a close above 3995 is acceptable, while closing above 4005 is preferred, and above 4015 is considered strong. The minimum requirement is to close above 3985 [3] Mid to Long-term Outlook - The weekly strength threshold for January is identified between 3960 and 4010, while the monthly threshold is between 3930 and 3960. Maintaining above the 60-day moving average is essential to sustain a bull market, and staying above the 250-day moving average is necessary to avoid reverting to a bear market [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of the metals sector, particularly the non-ferrous metals, which topped the industry growth rankings for 2025 with a cumulative increase of 91.67%, significantly outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (18.41%) and CSI 300 (17.66%) [18] - Institutions predict a bullish market for non-ferrous metals in 2026, driven by a combination of monetary policy, demand, and supply dynamics [18] - The chemical sector is also noted for its robust growth, with the chemical ETF showing a cumulative increase of 41.09% in 2025, benefiting from policy support and cyclical recovery [20] Market Temperature - The market temperature gauge indicates a 75% level, reflecting the valuation percentiles of major indices over the past decade, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 96.71%, Shenzhen Component Index at 87.9%, and ChiNext Index at 43.74% [1] Sector Performance - The media sector led the inflow of funds with a net purchase of 4.05 billion, followed by national defense and light manufacturing sectors with 1.977 billion and 411 million respectively [2] - The sectors experiencing the largest outflows included power equipment (-5.708 billion), electronics (-5.419 billion), and machinery (-3.981 billion) [2] ETF Performance - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) achieved a remarkable 67.23% increase over the past six months, indicating strong investor interest [4] - The chemical ETF (516020) has also shown promising performance, with a recent net subscription of 340 million over five trading days, reflecting growing investor confidence [20] Institutional Insights - Institutions are optimistic about the chemical new materials sector, expecting it to maintain strong growth momentum due to demand from AI, OLED, and robotics [20] - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector is bullish, with multiple institutions forecasting a continuation of the upward trend into 2026 [18][20]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its bullish trend into 2026, with a projected index increase of 10%, driven by a shift from valuation recovery to profit growth [1][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks are anticipated to maintain a bullish trend, supported by global liquidity easing, economic recovery, rapid development of the AI industry, and rising resource prices [3]. - Analysts predict that A-share companies' profits may grow by 6% in 2025 and further accelerate to 8% in 2026, with a focus on profit realization rather than valuation [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a transition from the "hope" phase to the "growth" phase for the Chinese stock market, with a potential 38% increase by the end of 2027, driven by profit growth of 14% in 2026 [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Key investment themes for 2026 include technology and resource sectors, with a focus on AI applications, new energy, and materials [5][6]. - Analysts recommend increasing allocations to emerging markets, particularly in sectors benefiting from the weak dollar trend [5]. - Investment directions include technology sectors, consumer sectors driven by profit acceleration, and industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [4][6]. Group 3: Market Phases - The market is expected to enter a "prosperity verification phase" in 2026, characterized by a slower index increase and a shift in focus from valuation to fundamental improvements [4]. - The transition from a "bull market 1.0" to "bull market 2.0" is anticipated, with a potential for a comprehensive bull market in the second half of 2026 [3][4]. Group 4: Risk Factors - Analysts highlight concerns regarding insufficient domestic demand and low inflation, which could impact corporate profitability and investment willingness [7]. - Potential risks include the progress of US-China trade negotiations, real estate market developments, and the possibility of an AI bubble affecting the tech sector [7][8].

Market Review - The South Korean Composite Index, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index, and Taiwan Weighted Index led global gains, while US stock indices declined during the week of December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026. In the A-share market, cyclical and growth sectors performed well, with oil, military, and media industries leading, while utilities faced the largest declines [1] - On January 2, the first trading day after New Year's, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a "good start," with the Hang Seng Tech Index surging 4% in a single day, particularly in semiconductor, AI computing, and internet giants, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite [1] Market Outlook - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a "big year" with multiple positive factors converging, maintaining a solid bull market foundation. The spring rally has started early due to several reasons: 1. Macro policy cycle indicates that 2026, as the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, will see multiple departments intensifying the rollout of supporting industrial policies and investment plans, creating a favorable liquidity environment through coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [2] 2. In December, institutional funds, represented by stock ETFs, showed significant inflows, with insurance funds expected to contribute to the market's upward trend due to favorable exchange rate movements [2] 3. With the narrowing decline in PPI, corporate earnings are expected to enter a mild recovery phase in 2026, making the bet on earnings inflection points a crucial support for the market [2] Key Focus Areas - The new chairperson of the Federal Reserve is a focal point this month, with the December meeting minutes indicating a majority support for further rate cuts, although there are significant policy path divergences among officials. The probability of a rate cut in January is currently low at 17% [2] - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 returned to the expansion zone at 50.1%, with production and new orders indices at 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, indicating improvements in both supply and demand [3] - The non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.2%, with the construction sector PMI at 52.8%, reflecting the effectiveness of policy-driven financial tools [3] Policy Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a list of early construction projects and a central budget investment plan totaling approximately 295 billion yuan for 2026 [4] - The "two new" policies for 2026 will continue and be optimized, with the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in subsidy funds being released early [4] - New local government bond limits will also be issued ahead of schedule, alongside measures in the real estate sector to reduce transaction costs for residents [4] Institutional Investment Trends - Since December, there has been a significant net inflow of institutional funds, particularly into A500-related ETFs, indicating a proactive approach to the spring rally [5] - The beginning of the year typically sees aggressive credit issuance from banks, which is expected to improve the liquidity outlook for the real economy and enterprises [5] - Recommended sectors for investment include emerging growth themes supported by industrial policies, such as AI computing, robotics, and domestic substitution, as well as sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" and price increases, such as chemicals and new energy [5]

24/09以来的这轮行情始于宏观政策导向转向抗通缩，但中长期看促转型更为关键，预计科技仍是政策 支持的重心。 同时，科技产业正处在新一轮向上大周期中，产业技术变革下人工智能有望加速向各行业应用。技术周 期和政策加持下，科技仍是未来一年看好的主导产业。 国信证券首席经济学家荀玉根研报指出，26年牛市相比25年， 不变：政策继续宽松。 起于24年924的牛市类似99年519，通缩不止、政策宽松环境不变；牛市周期未完。借鉴历史上牛熊周期 规律，这轮牛市的时空未到，市场情绪还未极致。 变化：基本面修复将由点到面扩散，配合居民资金入市，牛市走向第二阶段后半场和第三阶段；科技行 情望从算力基建向应用扩散，白酒消费、地产等老登资产有重估机会。 具体到科技内部，借鉴上两轮牛市经验，牛市后程的领涨板块往往是当时主导产业的应用领域，例如15 年上半年互联网+，21年的新能源车。 本轮科技行情同样有望由硬件端向应用扩散，随着人工智能技术在成本和性能不断取得突破，其在商业 化应用的步伐有望加快。 ...

国信证券首席经济学家荀玉根研报指出，26年牛市相比25年，不变：政策继续宽松。起于24年924的牛 市类似99年519，通缩不止、政策宽松环境不变；牛市周期未完。借鉴历史上牛熊周期规律，这轮牛市 的时空未到，市场情绪还未极致。变化：基本面修复将由点到面扩散，配合居民资金入市，牛市走向第 二阶段后半场和第三阶段；科技行情望从算力基建向应用扩散，白酒消费、地产等老登资产有重估机 会。 ...