Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital has been actively acquiring shares in listed companies, with 19 instances recorded in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong demand for stable investment opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Trends - The companies favored by insurance capital are primarily in sectors such as banking, environmental protection, transportation, and public utilities, characterized by low valuations and substantial dividend payouts [2][10]. - The shift in investment strategy reflects a broader trend of long-term funds moving from fixed-income assets to equity markets due to declining long-term interest rates [7][10]. - High dividend stocks are regaining investor attention as they provide stable cash flow and lower price volatility compared to other equity assets [7][10]. Group 2: Dividend Strategy - The diversity of dividend strategies is evident, with companies opting for either high dividend payouts or more cost-effective dividend distributions [3][4]. - High dividend-paying companies are typically found in mature industries, where growth opportunities are limited, leading to a focus on returning profits to shareholders [5][10]. - The China Securities Dividend Index, which tracks the top 100 high dividend stocks in A-shares, currently shows an overall dividend yield of approximately 5.5%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.67% [9][10]. Group 3: Central Enterprises and Market Dynamics - Insurance capital is increasingly targeting Hong Kong-listed central enterprises, which exhibit stable earnings and high dividend yields [16][21]. - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks has historically been lower than that of A-shares, making them more attractive from a dividend yield perspective [17][18]. - The Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (513910) has a dividend yield of 7.94%, even after accounting for a 20% dividend tax, outperforming similar A-share assets [21][28]. Group 4: Policy and Management Improvements - Recent improvements in the management efficiency of central enterprises, driven by policies such as the inclusion of cash dividends in market value management metrics, have led to a systematic revaluation of these companies [27][28]. - The proportion of institutional investors in central enterprises has increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, indicating growing confidence in these entities [26]. Group 5: Strategic Insights - The investment behavior of insurance capital mirrors that of Berkshire Hathaway, focusing on stable, high-dividend yielding assets that are essential to the economy [31][33]. - The Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (513910) is positioned as an optimal choice for investors seeking to benefit from both dividend income and the potential gains from central enterprise reforms [34].

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the public fund industry has intensified, particularly in the area of fund dividends, with strategies like "flash dividends" and "monthly dividends" becoming commonplace [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Dividend Trends - Flash dividends and monthly dividends are becoming standard practices in the public fund industry, with some funds distributing dividends even when not required by their contracts [2][4]. - Certain funds have announced dividends despite having minimal distributable profits, highlighting a trend where dividends are used as a marketing strategy to attract investors [5][6]. Group 2: Marketing and Investment Strategies - Fund dividends are increasingly viewed as a key marketing strategy for public funds, prompting fund managers to adapt their stock selection philosophies to meet the growing demand for dividends [3][8]. - The phenomenon of "dividend wars" is emerging, where funds distribute dividends based on contractual obligations rather than actual profits, indicating the competitive nature of the market [6][7]. Group 3: Impact on Fund Management - The trend of high-frequency dividends is pushing fund managers to focus on value investing and stable income-generating assets, which may lead to a shift in investment strategies towards undervalued dividend-paying stocks [8][9]. - Fund managers are now tasked with identifying companies that can provide sustainable high dividend yields, emphasizing the importance of reliable cash flow and strong corporate governance [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is becoming a popular choice for public funds as they shift towards dividend-themed funds amid a backdrop of significant market activity and low allocation in this sector [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Strategy and Market Performance - The banking stocks, particularly the four major state-owned banks, have seen significant price increases, with some reaching historical highs due to the effectiveness of low valuation and high dividend strategies [2]. - Chengdu Bank, heavily weighted in over 100 funds, has experienced a cumulative increase of 98% from January 2024 to July 11, 2025, outperforming many tech stocks and attracting attention from top fund managers [2]. Group 2: Fund Allocation and Research Activities - Public funds have a current allocation of approximately 3.49% in the banking sector, which is underweight by 9.99 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 index and 6.99 percentage points compared to the CSI 800 index [3]. - Recent fund research activities have focused on banks that were previously underweighted, indicating a potential shift in investment strategy [3][4]. Group 3: Institutional Investment Trends - Insurance companies and large institutional investors are increasingly turning to dividend assets like banking stocks due to rising demand for stable returns amid global uncertainties [5][6]. - The banking sector's current price-to-book ratio is 0.72, below the global average, and its dividend yield is significantly higher than government bond yields, making it attractive for long-term investors [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of low interest rates, accounting changes, and policy guidance is expected to further enhance the appeal of dividend strategies, with insurance funds likely to become a significant source of new capital in the stock market [6].

Group 1 - The public fund industry is experiencing intense competition in the area of fund dividends, with practices like "lightning dividends" and monthly dividends becoming the norm [1][2] - Some funds are implementing dividends even when they are not required to do so by their contracts, and some are distributing dividends despite significant losses [1][3] - The trend of frequent dividends is seen as a marketing strategy to attract investors, prompting fund managers to upgrade their stock selection and focus on undervalued dividend assets [1][4] Group 2 - Recent announcements indicate that several funds are implementing cash dividends shortly after their establishment, with some funds even distributing dividends multiple times within a month [2][3] - The practice of distributing dividends despite being in a loss position is noted, with some funds continuing to pay dividends while having negative distributable profits [3][4] - The emphasis on dividends is pushing fund managers to adopt value-oriented investment strategies, focusing on companies that can generate stable cash flows and maintain healthy balance sheets [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking sector Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the banking sector saw a total net inflow of 122 billion yuan from ETFs, with significant contributions from the CSI 300 ETF (89 billion yuan) and dividend ETFs (32 billion yuan) [2] - The report highlights that while short-term impacts from tariff policies may affect exports, long-term expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing the economy are expected to benefit the banking sector [3] - Specific banks such as Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and China Merchants Bank are recommended for their cyclical growth potential, while Shanghai Bank and Jiangsu Bank are noted for their dividend strategies [3] Summary by Sections ETF Fund Inflows - The total net inflow into the banking sector from ETFs in the first half of 2025 was 122 billion yuan, with the CSI 300 ETF being the largest contributor [2] - The banking ETF alone saw a net inflow of 35 billion yuan, while the dividend ETF contributed 52 billion yuan [1][2] Market Trends - The report indicates a slowdown in overall ETF inflows compared to the previous year, with a notable peak in April 2025 [1] - The banking sector's performance is expected to improve due to supportive policies aimed at economic recovery [3] Key Data Tracking - The average trading volume for stocks reached 14,962.78 billion yuan, reflecting an increase from the previous week [4] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending increased by 0.78% to 1.87 trillion yuan [7] Interest Rates and Debt Issuance - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 4,264.30 billion yuan, with an average interest rate of 1.61% [8] - Local government special bond issuance totaled 63.985 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 22,275.22 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [8] Sector Performance - The banking sector's performance is tracked against the CSI 300 index, with fluctuations noted in the sector's growth [5] - The report includes various charts detailing the performance of individual banks and their respective contributions to ETF inflows [11][16]

"1+3+5"长周期考核背后的深意 2025 年 07 月 13 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：张凯烽 研究助理：李劲锋 执业证号：S0100524070006 执业证号：S0100124080012 邮箱：zhangkaifeng@mszq.com 邮箱：lijinfeng_2@mszq.com ➢ 事件：2025 年 7 月 11 日，财政部下发《关于引导保险资金长期稳健投资 进一步加强国有商业保险公司长周期考核的通知》（财金〔2025〕62 号）（以下 简称《通知》），调整了相关经营指标的考核方式，国有商业保险公司自开展 2025 年度绩效评价工作开始执行。 ➢ 增设长周期考核指标，引导长期稳健投资。根据财政部《商业保险公司绩效 评价办法》，商业保险公司绩效评价指标体系中经营效益的考核占比为 25%，主 要分为 3 大指标：（国有）资本保值增值率、净资产收益率、分红上缴比例，分 别占比 10%、8%、7%。本次《通知》对其中（国有）资本保值增值率、净资产 收益率两大指标进行了调整，形成"1+3+5"（当年、3 年周期、五年周期）的考 核模式，引导险企更加着眼长期投资和稳健投资。 ➢ 净资产收 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 从红利增长到未来高股息 ——红利策略全攻略系列之七 证券分析师：杨俊文 A0230522070001 邓虎 A0230520070003 研究支持： 杨俊文 A0230522070001 2025.07.12 主要内容 1. 从红利增长到未来高股息 2 2. 未来高股息与红利增长思路的结合 3. 港股红利增长初探 1.1 原红利增长组合可改进的方向 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 3 ◼ （一）、新规环境下需要锚定指数，降低跟踪误差：5月7日，中国证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》， "对三年以上产品业绩低于业绩比较基准超过10个百分点的基金经理，要求其绩效薪酬应当明显下降。2016~2024年 期间，原红利增长组合相对中证红利指数的年化跟踪误差为9.08%，原红利增长组合作为红利的主动量化产品，需要锚 定指数，降低跟踪误差。 ◼ （二）、原红利增长组合完全没有银行，影响了组合容量和股息率。对于习惯银行为主作为红利配置的机构来说，没有 银行的红利组合会显得有些"另类"，缺少银行的组合也会容量下降，同时股息率也可能受到影响。 1.2 从红利增长走向未来高股 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing demand for stable returns among investors amid global economic uncertainty and ongoing volatility in equity markets, with Hong Kong stocks becoming a focal point due to their low valuations and high dividend yields [1] - The attractiveness of dividend strategies has significantly increased in the context of a low interest rate environment and widening interest rate differentials between China and the U.S., as these strategies exhibit "bond-like" characteristics [1] - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio remains at historical lows, indicating that Hong Kong stocks are undervalued compared to major global indices, which enhances the appeal of dividend strategies [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend (HKD) Index, tracked by the dividend-focused Hong Kong ETF, is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., and includes 30 high dividend yield securities that are liquid and consistently pay dividends [1] - The index primarily focuses on high-quality companies with stable dividend capabilities, covering a wide range of industries but mainly concentrated in traditional sectors such as real estate and energy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by traditional investment strategies in a low-interest-rate environment and suggests various tools for investors to build their own income-generating portfolios amidst market volatility [1]. Group 1: Investment Tools - Cash management products offer high liquidity and can be accessed anytime, providing better returns than traditional savings accounts [2]. - Bond ETFs track bond indices, such as the Fortune Government Bond ETF, which invests in policy financial bonds with low default risk and stable returns, suitable for long-term holding [3]. - Brokerage repurchase agreements allow investors to earn predetermined returns with flexibility in fund usage, combining investment and liquidity [4]. Group 2: "Fixed Income +" Strategy - The "Fixed Income +" strategy seeks to enhance returns while maintaining a stable base through the allocation of fixed-income assets and additional investments in stocks or convertible bonds [5][7]. - The strategy's risk and return profile is primarily influenced by the equity portion, despite the fixed-income base providing stability [7]. Group 3: Dividend Index Funds - Dividend strategies have gained attention due to their characteristics of high dividends and low valuations, providing strong downside protection and stable cash flow from leading companies [8][10]. - Reinvesting dividend income can leverage the power of compounding, significantly enhancing total returns over time, even with initially low dividend yields [11]. Group 4: Performance of Dividend Indices - Various dividend indices have shown attractive yields and volatility metrics, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index yielding 7.47% and the CSI Dividend Index yielding 6.12% [12][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes a significant decline in global risk premiums, easing U.S. debt pressures, and an increased probability of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, while still advocating for a cautious approach [1] - The article highlights that technology remains the core of global asset allocation, while the upward trend in gold is weakening due to diverging factors [1] - The passing of the U.S. "Big and Beautiful Act" (BBB Act) and the gradual establishment of "reciprocal tariffs" are seen as reducing short-term political and economic uncertainties, leading to a new investment order [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the current hot topic of anti-involution policies within the context of a unified market, suggesting a potential repeat of the scenario where supply contraction leads to excess profits [2] - It predicts that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, overseas capital may flow into China, potentially leading to a significant market rebound similar to last autumn [2] - The article notes a divergence among market participants regarding domestic equity assets, with a shift in focus towards technology growth and a reduction in the importance of low-volatility dividend strategies [2] Group 3 - The analysis indicates that global commodity prices are rising, driven by reduced supply from domestic anti-involution measures and increased demand from international restocking [3] - The article mentions a 4% increase in bank stocks over the past week, suggesting that dividend strategies remain effective despite adjustments in the technology sector [3] Group 4 - The article outlines that in the asset allocation system, fundamental factors play a decisive role while enhanced factors serve as auxiliary [4] - It emphasizes that investors should focus on fundamental changes rather than market momentum, which is often overlooked [4] Group 5 - The article presents quantitative observations indicating that stock investments are more favorable compared to bonds, with an equity risk premium (ERP) of 3.37% and a median excess return of 9.15% [5] - It notes that the stock valuation factor shows a high probability of positive returns, with a current one-year holding return probability of 69% [5] - The article states that the growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders has increased from 16.20% to 35.1%, indicating an upward trend in the profit cycle [5] Group 6 - The article suggests that bond investment opportunities are weak, with low odds indicated by the valuation factor and a tightening funding environment [6] Group 7 - The article emphasizes that the economic growth target for 2025 is around 5%, with quarterly GDP growth rates projected to decline throughout the year [7] - It highlights that the effects of anti-involution on inflation need further observation, as current PPI and CPI data show limited positive factors for price changes [8] - The article discusses the necessity of broad credit over broad monetary policy, indicating that excessive monetary easing may have diminishing returns on economic stability [8] Group 8 - The article notes a shift in policy focus from short-term stimulus to long-term institutional building, reflecting a significant change in the global policy landscape [9] - It discusses the implications of the BBB Act on global financial markets and capital flows, suggesting that China's ongoing reforms are adapting to these complex changes [9] Group 9 - The article concludes that the dividend strategy remains effective in a low-growth, low-inflation environment, and that the capital structure remains unchanged with state-owned enterprises at the center [10] - It indicates that equity assets may outperform fixed income, but structural market conditions do not support significant overall increases [11] - The article highlights the competition between new technology and old cycles, suggesting that the current environment may not replicate past supply-side reforms [11][12]