美国经济数据韧性十足。美国Q3实际GDP季环比终值小幅上修至4.4%，创两年来最快增速，核心PCE 通胀保持在2.9%；美11月PCE物价指数同比2.8%，环比涨0.2%，均符合预期，通胀预期稳定，消费支 出稳健。美国经济韧性，就业市场稳定，通胀符合预期，这也使得美联储内部对降息预期继续产生较大 分歧，但对1月降息市场预测概率并不大。另外，对于美联储新任主席人选，特朗普表示可能已选定一 人任美联储主席，再次暗示哈塞特"出局"。 地缘政治方面，在国际市场特朗普声称必须拥有格陵兰岛，并威胁对多个欧洲国家加征关税，不过特朗 普表示格陵兰岛是美国核心安全利益，但美不会武力夺取，寻求立即谈判。格陵兰岛局势使得欧美之间 裂痕加大，欧部分主权基金抛售美债动作，也使得市场重新产生"美元信用"危机。 美联储1月降息概率依然不高，但市场已有预期下，对黄金影响反而下降，在特朗普继续搅局格陵兰岛 下，地缘政治紧张局势不降反升，而市场对美元信用的动摇成为黄金有力的助推因素，从美委冲突，到 格陵兰岛局势，伊朗局势也悬而未决，避险情绪下黄金短期热度难以下降。 撰稿：李琪 从业资格：F3046227 交易咨询资格：Z0016145 热点栏目 ...

贵金属日报 2026-01-26 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 1.66 %，报 1121.16 元/克，沪银涨 6.32 %，报 25650.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 5023.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 104.73 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.24%，美元指数报 97.17 ； 美国三季度 PCE 物价指数季度环比年化值为 2.8%，低于预期的 3.5%，三季度核心 PCE 物价指 数季度环比年化值为 2.9%，符合预期及前值。美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价指数同比值为 2.8%，符 合预期。美国 1 月标普全球制造业 PMI 为 51.9，低于预期的 52，1 月标普全球服务业 PMI 为 52.5，低于预期的 52.8，综合 PMI 为 52.8，低于预期的 53。当前 CME 利率观测器显示，当前 市场定价联储今年分别在 6 月以及 10 月进行 25 个基点的降息操作。 【策略观点】 金银价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of gold and silver were extremely strong, hitting new all - time highs. The price increase is driven by concerns about the stability of the US dollar credit and the Fed's monetary policy, and the upward trend has a solid macro - driving force. It is recommended to go long on dips in the precious metals strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1074 - 1300 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 22612 - 28000 yuan/kilogram [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Weekly Summary**: This week, domestic markets saw Shanghai Gold rise 8.07% to 1115.64 yuan/gram and Shanghai Silver rise 11.04% to 24965.00 yuan/kilogram by Friday's daytime close. COMEX Gold rose 7.85% to 4983.10 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 11.98% to 103.26 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.24%, and the US dollar index fell 1.88% to 97.51 [11]. - **Dollar Credit Impact**: The "island - grabbing storm" of the US regarding Greenland has severely damaged the US dollar's credit. European pension funds and a Canadian teacher retirement fund announced the reduction of US Treasury holdings. The long - term US Treasury demand has weakened, and gold, as a substitute for US Treasury bonds, has increased in allocation value. Poland's central bank approved a 150 - ton gold purchase plan [11]. - **Inflation and Economic Data**: The US Q3 PCE price index's quarterly - on - quarterly annualized value was 2.8%, lower than the expected 3.5%. The core PCE price index's quarterly - on - quarterly annualized value was 2.9%, in line with expectations. The US January S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 51.9, lower than the expected 52, and the service PMI was 52.5, lower than the expected 52.8. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and October [11]. - **Market Outlook**: The strong performance of gold and silver prices reflects concerns about the US dollar's credit and the Fed's monetary policy stability. The tightness of the silver spot market cannot be alleviated by the outflow of COMEX inventory. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the Shanghai Gold main contract's reference range at 1074 - 1300 yuan/gram and the Shanghai Silver main contract's at 22612 - 28000 yuan/kilogram [11]. 2. Market Review - **Price Changes**: This week, Shanghai Gold rose 8.07% to 1115.64 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 11.04% to 24965.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX Gold rose 7.85% to 4983.10 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 11.98% to 103.26 US dollars/ounce [30]. - **Position Changes**: Shanghai Gold's total open interest rose 4.9% to 366,300 lots, and COMEX Gold's total open interest as of the latest report period rose 0.1% to 528,000 lots. Shanghai Silver's total open interest fell 0.36% to 708,800 lots, and COMEX Silver's total open interest as of the latest report period rose 0.33% to 152,000 lots [33][36]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of January 23, the total holdings of gold ETFs within the LSEG statistical scope were 2377.2 tons, and the total holdings of foreign - market silver ETFs were 29634.5 tons [41]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **US Treasury Yields**: The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds and the yields of short - term US Treasury bonds are presented in the figures. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is also shown in relation to the real interest rate and inflation expectations [52][55]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: The Fed's balance sheet shows changes in assets and liabilities. For example, the Fed's holdings of securities increased by 19.77 billion US dollars, and the total liabilities increased by 28.79 billion US dollars [56]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI and PCE**: The US December CPI year - on - year value was 2.7%, in line with expectations, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, also in line with expectations. The core CPI year - on - year value was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7%, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [64]. - **Employment**: As of the week ending January 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [67]. - **PMI and PPI**: The US December ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4, higher than the expected 52.3 and the previous value of 52.6 [70]. - **New Home Data**: The annualized value of new home starts in the US in October was 1.246 million units, lower than the expected 1.325 million units and the previous value of 1.291 million units. The annualized value of building permits was 1.412 million units, higher than the expected 1.35 million units [73]. 5. Precious Metals Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The outer - market gold basis (London spot gold - COMEX gold) and the inner - market gold basis (AuT+D - SHFE gold) are presented, showing their respective changes [12]. - **Silver Basis**: The outer - market silver basis (London spot silver - COMEX silver) and the inner - market silver basis (AgT+D - SHFE silver) show their changes [12]. - **Internal - External Spreads**: The internal - external spreads of gold (Shanghai Gold and COMEX Gold) and silver (Shanghai Silver and COMEX Silver) are presented in the figures [83][85]. 6. Precious Metals Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The combined silver inventories of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX, as well as the inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange, are presented in the figures. The COMEX and LBMA silver inventories also show their trends [90][93]. - **Gold Inventories**: The COMEX and LBMA gold inventories are presented in the figures, showing their trends [95][97].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the paradox of rising gold prices amidst a declining trust in the US dollar, highlighting the implications for the US economy and global financial stability. Group 1: Gold and US Dollar Dynamics - The US holds the largest gold reserves globally, approximately 8,133 tons, which could translate into significant wealth if gold prices rise [2] - The notion of selling gold to pay off the US national debt of $35 trillion is criticized, as it would signal a loss of confidence in the dollar, potentially leading to a rapid sell-off of dollar assets globally [4] - Central banks are reportedly reducing their holdings of US Treasury bonds while increasing their gold reserves, indicating a shift in asset allocation amid concerns over the dollar's credibility [6] Group 2: Economic Pressures and Interest Payments - The interest payments on US debt are projected to exceed $1.1 trillion in the fiscal year 2025, creating significant financial pressure on the US government [8] - The rising gold prices are seen as a reflection of the weakening dollar, creating a cycle where increasing gold values lead to further distrust in the dollar, necessitating more debt issuance [10] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There is a growing sentiment of distrust towards the dollar, with individuals preferring to hold physical gold rather than relying solely on dollar assets [8] - The article notes a significant premium on physical gold, indicating a shift in investor behavior towards tangible assets [12] - The potential for the US to re-link gold to the dollar or intervene in gold prices raises concerns about market stability and investor confidence [13]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of metal and mining-themed funds has significantly improved over the past year, with several funds achieving returns exceeding 100% due to a market recovery and rising commodity prices, particularly in the metals sector [2][3]. Fund Performance Summary - The top-performing fund, the招商中证有色金属矿业主题ETF, recorded a return of 139.48% from January 1, 2025, to January 21, 2026 [2][3]. - Other notable funds include: - 国泰中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF with a return of 136.21% [3]. - 国泰中证有色金属矿业主题ETF at 135.81% [3]. - 华安中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF at 134.35% [3]. - 平安中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF at 133.02% [3]. - Active management products like 万家趋势领先A and C achieved returns of 131.81% and 130.78%, respectively [3][4]. Annual Performance Overview - In the complete year of 2025, major metal and mining-themed funds showed strong performance, with 15 products reporting annual returns exceeding 95%, and five funds achieving returns over 100% [6][8]. - The top annual performers included: - 国泰中证有色金属矿业主题ETF at 106.56% [8]. - 招商中证有色金属矿业主题ETF at 103.05% [8]. - 万家趋势领先A and C at 101.12% and 100.45%, respectively [8]. - 南方中证申万有色金属ETF at 100.11% [8]. Market Trends and Insights - The international gold price increased by over 73% from early 2025 to January 21, 2026, contributing to the rise in net values of gold-themed funds [3]. - Experts express a divided outlook on gold prices for 2026, with some suggesting a potential decline compared to 2025, while others highlight copper as a promising investment opportunity [2][10].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent geopolitical tensions and their impact on various commodities, particularly precious metals and oil [1][3][11] - Precious metals, including gold and silver, have reached historical highs due to weakened dollar credibility and increased central bank purchases, particularly Poland's plan to buy 150 tons of gold [3][17] - The U.S. crude oil production has decreased slightly, with an average of 13.732 million barrels per day, while geopolitical developments in Iran and Venezuela are influencing market dynamics [2][11] Group 2 - The article highlights the performance of key commodities, noting that synthetic rubber prices have surged, while natural rubber is expected to remain strong due to supply constraints [2][13] - The U.S. economy shows signs of growth, with a GDP growth rate of 4.4% for Q3 2025, and inflation indicators are aligning with expectations, suggesting a stable economic environment [5] - The People's Bank of China is set to inject 900 billion yuan through MLF operations, indicating a continued effort to support liquidity in the domestic market [6]

出品｜搜狐财经 2025年，A股总市值站上100 万亿元的高峰，上证指数涨破4000点创下近十年新高。2026年A股市场又 将如何演绎？哪些行业将孕育新的投资机遇？ 搜狐财经《基金佳问》栏目特别推出"基遇2026"专题系列报道，复盘A股市场细分领域年内行情，展望 及预测2026年各热门赛道的投资机遇，把握后市资产配置的主逻辑，寻找具有投资潜力的基金产品。 1月21日，来自天弘基金的基金经理沙川做客搜狐财经直播间，对2026年市场贵金属领域的投资机会进 行了深入解读，重点分析了黄金、白银相关资产的布局前景。 "黄金还是处于牛市之中。" 沙川在直播中明确表示，在逆全球化趋势下，作为主要国际结算货币的美 元信用持续走弱，但全球贸易体系依然围绕美元运转。国际社会正在寻找能够分担国际贸易结算职能的 替代选择，而黄金是公认的选项之一。 去年白银涨幅约150%，显著超过黄金的表现引发了广泛关注。"白银与黄金在投资逻辑上既有相似又有 不同。"他解释道，黄金的贵金属属性更为纯粹，价格主要受金融因素驱动；而白银则兼具较强的工业 属性。 沙川分析称，本轮行情初期，白银涨幅明显滞后，导致金银比一度达到100左右的高位。"随后的白银大 ...

出品｜搜狐财经 作者｜汪梦婷 编辑｜杨锦 更多访谈点击查看《基金佳问》专栏 2025年，A股总市值站上100 万亿元的高峰，上证指数涨破4000点创下近十年新高。2026年A股市场又将如何演绎？哪些行业将孕育新的投资机遇？ 搜狐财经《基金佳问》栏目特别推出"基遇2026"专题系列报道，复盘A股市场细分领域年内行情，展望及预测2026年各热门赛道的投资机遇，把握后市资产 配置的主逻辑，寻找具有投资潜力的基金产品。 1月21日，来自天弘基金的基金经理沙川做客搜狐财经直播间，对2026年市场贵金属领域的投资机会进行了深入解读，重点分析了黄金、白银相关资产的布 局前景。 "黄金还是处于牛市之中。" 沙川在直播中明确表示，在逆全球化趋势下，作为主要国际结算货币的美元信用持续走弱，但全球贸易体系依然围绕美元运 转。国际社会正在寻找能够分担国际贸易结算职能的替代选择，而黄金是公认的选项之一。 去年白银涨幅约150%，显著超过黄金的表现引发了广泛关注。"白银与黄金在投资逻辑上既有相似又有不同。"他解释道，黄金的贵金属属性更为纯粹，价 格主要受金融因素驱动；而白银则兼具较强的工业属性。 沙川分析称，本轮行情初期，白银涨幅明显滞 ...

1月22日，昨日黄金走了一个冲高回落局面，亚盘开盘金价便开始上扬，突破4800关口后一路刷新新 高，欧盘前刷新日内高点至4887美元。不过后续开始下跌，美盘尾盘吐出日内全部涨幅，算是走了一个 过山车。最终金价是收盘于4831美元，日线收于一根阳线。 周四（1月22日）特朗普最新表态，明确撤回对欧洲八国的关税威胁并否认将通过武力获取格陵兰岛， 声称已与北约达成"合作框架"。这一"TACO"交易（特朗普典型的交易模式）立即使得近期推升金价最 紧迫的地缘政治"引爆点"效力大减。市场对避险的即时需求显著削弱，成为引发获利盘集中了结的直接 导火索。 虽然地缘热点暂缓，但动摇美元信用的结构性矛盾并未消失。美国最高法院关于不罢免美联储理事的倾 向，仅小幅安抚了市场对央行独立性的担忧。而瑞典最大养老基金大规模抛售美债、欧洲议会无限期冻 结欧美贸易协定等事件，仍在持续引发市场对跨大西洋金融与贸易稳定性的深层疑虑，为黄金提供结构 性买盘。不过，金价在短时间内涨幅已极度惊人，各项指标均处于历史超买区，短线回落调整概率亦是 不小。 从技术上来看，日内黄金暂时看其保持居高，但是基本面利好的突然消失也势必会增加短线调整的风 险，所以日内 ...

鲍威尔的底气来自三块铁板。 第一是法律护盾：《联邦储备法》规定，总统不能因政策分歧罢免美联储理事，只能以"行为不端"为由解职。 第二是华尔街 资本网络，美联储高官卸任后常进入摩根大通等机构任职，形成利益同盟。 第三是共和党内部的支持——参议员蒂利斯公开声援鲍威尔，警告白宫"停止干 预央行"。 更关键的是，鲍威尔直接点破调查真相："这无关大楼翻修，只因为我不听总统指挥降息"。 25亿美元装修案：特朗普的"法律匕首" 2026年1月，美联储主席鲍威尔突然成了美国司法部的"刑事调查对象"。 总统特朗普用一纸传票，把两人持续一年的降息拉锯战拖进了法庭战场。 这场表面 关于"美联储大楼翻修超支"的调查，实则是特朗普对美联储独立性的正面强攻，他想要一个听话的央行，而鲍威尔身后，站着华尔街、法律盾牌和全球市场 的命运。 特朗普的降息执念：为什么他非要扳倒鲍威尔？ 特朗普对降息的疯狂施压，从来不只是经济政策分歧。 他第二任期上任后，美国正面临关税战推高的通胀、失业率从4.1%升至4.4%的经济压力，以及接近 36万亿美元的政府债务大山。 低利率能瞬间减轻政府偿债负担，更能制造短期经济繁荣，为中期选举铺路。 但鲍威尔在2025 ...