新华财经北京5月22日电作为穆迪下调美国主权信用评级后的首场长债发行，美国财政部周三（5月21 日）发行的160亿美元20年期国债受到市场高度关注。由于发行结果不佳，引发美国长期限国债收益率 全面上涨超过11BP。 其中，10年期美债收益率上涨11BP至4.60%，创逾三个月新高。此前在5%关口附近徘徊的20年期和30 年期美债收益率分别上涨13BP和12BP，至5.12%和5.09%，均为2023年11月以来新高。期限在10年以下 的美债收益率也普遍上涨5-10BP。 发行结果显示，本次招标的20年期美债中标利率为5.047%，较4月的4.810%高出24BP，一举站上5%大 关，较预发行利率5.035%高出约1.2BP，是去年12月以来的最大尾部利差；投标倍数为2.46，低于4月的 2.63，为2月以来最低。 衡量海外需求的间接认购比例为69.02%，低于上月的70.7%，但仍高于67.2%的近期均值。衡量美国国 内需求的直接认购比例为14.1%，高于上月的12.3%。一级交易商获配比例为16.9%，稍低于上月的 17.0%。 结果公布后，盘中本就处在涨势的美债收益率出现一轮显著拉升；美股急挫，三大股指跌 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $14 or 0.15% to $9,533.50 per ton on May 21, driven by investor concerns over rising U.S. debt levels and a weakening dollar, prompting a search for hard assets [1][3] - The three-month copper price reached a six-week high of $9,664 per ton, supported by easing trade concerns, although optimism is waning [3] - Technical analysis indicates strong support for copper at $9,500 per ton, with a short-term target of $9,950 per ton if no significant negative macroeconomic events occur [3] Group 2 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increased government debt and interest payment ratios, changing the outlook from "negative" to "stable" [3] - The global refined copper production for Q1 2025 was 7.2832 million tons, with consumption at 7.0125 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 270,800 tons [5] - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported that global refined copper production in March 2025 was 2.5135 million tons, with consumption at 2.493 million tons, leading to a surplus of 20,500 tons [4]

相关链接 期货热点追踪 铜价在美元走弱和美国债务问题的背景下小幅上涨，分析师表示，如果宏观经济短期内没有出现重大的 负面意外，铜价的目标是…… ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses concerns among bond investors regarding the U.S. government's willingness to make tough decisions to balance its budget, indicating a potential issue with national debt [1] Group 1 - Matthew Amis, the investment director at Aberdeen, highlights that the market is questioning whether the U.S. government is prepared to undertake difficult measures for budget balancing [1] - The article notes that the easing of trade tensions means tariffs will not significantly boost revenue, which could impact the government's financial strategy [1] - Recent developments regarding Trump's tax legislation suggest that U.S. debt is trending in a direction that may not align with market expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major investment firms are shifting their focus towards emerging market stocks, anticipating a favorable turn in market conditions for these assets [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Firms' Perspectives - Morgan Stanley, AQR Capital Management, Bank of America, and Franklin Templeton are betting on emerging markets as the next investment opportunity [1]. - Bank of America's Michael Hartnett describes emerging markets as the "next bull market" [3]. - AQR predicts that emerging market stocks will yield an annual return of nearly 6% in local currency over the next 5 to 10 years, surpassing the 4% expected return from U.S. stocks [3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The S&P 500 index has remained flat year-to-date, while emerging market indices have risen by 10%, suggesting a potential end to a 15-year period of underperformance for these markets [3]. - Over the past 15 years, U.S. stocks have surged over 400%, while emerging market stocks have only increased by 7% [3]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Investment Shifts - Factors such as trade wars, the dollar's challenges, S&P volatility, and doubts about U.S. Treasury bonds' safe-haven status are prompting investors to look beyond the U.S. [3]. - Moody's recently downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over rising debt and deficits, adding pressure to U.S. equities [3]. - Franklin Templeton's Christy Tan warns of dollar depreciation risks and suggests that the "American exceptionalism" narrative may be temporarily over, viewing emerging market bonds as alternatives to U.S. Treasuries [3]. Group 4: Investment Focus Areas - Morgan Stanley's Jitania Kandhari is focusing on stocks in banking, electrification, healthcare, and defense sectors within emerging markets [4]. - AQR's Chris Doheny is targeting smaller market capitalization companies in emerging markets that are expected to perform well in the medium to long term [4]. Group 5: Capital Flows and Economic Conditions - As of the week ending May 9, inflows into U.S.-listed emerging market and specific country ETFs reached $1.84 billion, more than double the previous week [4]. - Despite the positive outlook, inherent characteristics of emerging markets, such as political instability and local crises, may hinder this year's growth [4]. - Franklin Templeton's Tan highlights that major emerging markets have strong fundamentals, low external debt, and favorable debt-to-GDP ratios, making them attractive [4].

哈西特将责任完全归咎于拜登政府，指责其"鲁莽开支"导致今日局面。他强调，特朗普政府正全力削减支出、放松监管，推动供给侧增长，坚信 美国经济将重回全球巅峰。"经济最强，国债自然最强！"哈西特的自信宣言背后，是特朗普团队对当前经济政策的全力辩护，却也掩盖不了市场 对债务问题的深层忧虑。 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特火力全开，直指穆迪下调美国主权信用评级的决定"严重滞后"，并坚称美国国债仍是全球最安全的投资标 的。他毫不客气地嘲讽道："穆迪爱怎么评就怎么评，但美国国债的地位无可撼动！"这番言论无疑是对市场担忧的一记强硬回击，也凸显了特朗 普政府对经济前景的极度自信。 穆迪此次降级理由直指美国债务飙升和利息负担加重，将评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，使得美国在三大评级机构中彻底失去最高信用评级。更令人担忧 的是，穆迪警告称，当前财政计划难以实质性削减赤字，而国会共和党人推动的减税和支出法案可能进一步推高债务。这一消息瞬间引爆市场， 美债收益率飙升，美元走软，美股集体下挫，投资者情绪明显受挫。 美国财政部长贝森特同样将矛头指向前任政府，称"眼下的烂摊子并非过去100天造成"。他坦言，8月可能触及债务上限，呼吁国会尽快行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1, attributing it to rising budget deficits and concerns over U.S. economic policies, which may lead to increased volatility in financial markets [4][6]. Group 1: U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, citing the expansion of budget deficits and lack of signs of reduction [4]. - The downgrade is expected to heighten concerns in the U.S. sovereign bond market, potentially leading to a slowdown in the U.S. economy [4][6]. - Analysts predict that the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds may rise by 5-10 basis points due to the downgrade [6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Rising U.S. Treasury yields could increase government interest expenses, complicating the government's ability to cut spending and potentially raising loan rates for mortgages and credit cards [7]. - The U.S. federal budget deficit is projected to reach nearly $2 trillion annually, exceeding 6% of GDP, with expectations that it will rise to nearly 9% of GDP by 2035 [8]. - Despite the downgrade, some analysts believe it will not significantly impact Congress's voting behavior or lead to forced selling of U.S. Treasuries [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, gold prices opened higher, while U.S. stock index futures and oil prices experienced declines [4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index is nearing its lowest point since April, reflecting growing skepticism about the U.S. dollar amid rising Treasury yields [6]. - Foreign demand for U.S. government securities remains strong, indicating no immediate signs of aversion to U.S. debt despite recent concerns [8].

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 首先来看一条新闻：穆迪这家美国评级公司对美国政府的主权信用评级进行了下调。虽然评级仍然处于 优等水平，但已经告别了最高级别的3A等级。这背后反映出的是对美国资产价值的深深疑虑：是否应 该给美国资产一个较高的评分？这一评级下调会间接导致许多资金在配置美元资产时面临加仓还是减仓 的抉择。评级下降肯定是一个负面的考虑因素。而这一评级下调的导火索，正是大家对美国债务问题的 担忧。 这个问题由来已久，这颗深水炸弹一直没有引爆，但其规模还在不断扩大，这种隐忧也会引发一系列连 锁反应。要知道，这件事情已经呼应了前几周大家看到的奇怪现象：美元资产出现"三杀"，即股、债同 时下跌。背后的原因正是美元债务问题迟迟得不到解决。 这件事情不仅外界清楚，美国决策层也深感忧虑。大家看到特朗普上台后，一个重要政策目标就是解决 或控制债务问题，以缓解美国"花钱比赚得多、入不敷出"的状况。比如，前段时间大幅调整关税，目的 之一就是增加收入，当然也有其他目的。另外，这两天大家还看到美国政府可能正在酝酿加征一种名 为"国际汇款税"的新税种。比如，许多在美国打工的人往自己国家汇钱，政府打算从中抽取5%作为汇 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, highlighting his political motivations and the implications for the U.S. economy [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has announced for the third consecutive time that it will not lower interest rates, leading to President Trump's complaints about dealing with Chairman Powell [1]. - Trump has previously urged the Fed to lower rates, suggesting that a 100 basis point cut could reduce annual interest expenses by $400 billion, alleviating debt pressure and supporting his political agenda [3]. Group 2: Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP shrank by 0.3% on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter of 2025, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022, which exceeded market expectations [3]. - The decline in GDP was primarily attributed to a significant increase in imports and a reduction in government spending, reflecting the uncertainty caused by the government's trade policies [3]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - Trump's strategy appears to be aimed at shifting blame for economic issues onto Powell, framing them as failures of individual decision-making rather than structural problems [1]. - The ongoing tensions between Trump and Powell signal a growing rift in the U.S. political and financial system, raising questions about the credibility of the country's institutional checks and balances [7].

消费需求放缓。随着一季度全球金价20次突破历史新高，金饰需求遭遇冲击，销量跌至2020年疫情以来 最低。一季度，中国市场金饰消费量为125吨，同比下滑32%，较过去10年同期的平均水平低了29%， 创下2020年以来最疲软的一季度表现。高金价令一部分消费者持续转向购买克重更小、价格更亲民的金 饰产品，也有部分消费者选择持币观望。 央行持续购金。在全球地缘政治不确定性仍存的背景之下，2025年是全球央行连续净购金的第16年。一 季度全球官方黄金储备增加244吨，尽管同比下滑21.4%，但仍与过去3年季度均值持平，整体表现依旧 坚挺，显示官方储备多元化趋势延续。 全球市场环境不确定性较高 中长期来看，由于美国关税政策不确定性较高、地缘冲突等仍将持续，大国博弈的底层逻辑未有实质性 改变，黄金作为核心配置资产，长期维持偏多思路。 今年全球市场开局动荡，贸易争端频发、美国关税政策反复无常、地缘局势持续紧张，叠加全球经济衰 退预期卷土重来，这些因素共同导致投资者面临高度不确定的市场环境。在此背景下，黄金投资需求激 增。此外，美联储货币政策仍处于宽松周期，贵金属金融属性仍有支撑，但由于前期金价涨速过快，短 期或高位震荡，但 ...