Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 95.4% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June is 4.6% [1] - For July, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 73.7%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 25.2% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 1.0% [1] Group 2 - The projected interest rate probabilities for upcoming FOMC meetings show a 4.6% chance of maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% in June, decreasing to 25.2% in July [4] - The likelihood of rates being in the range of 4.00%-4.25% increases to 57.1% by September [4] - The probabilities for rates in the range of 3.75%-4.00% rise to 17.0% by September [4]

Economic Growth - Recent data indicates a slowdown in US GDP growth, with certain industries showing insufficient growth momentum [3] - Manufacturing PMI data has been hovering near the expansion threshold, indicating obstacles in manufacturing growth [3] - Although the service sector remains relatively stable, it faces challenges due to fluctuations in consumer spending willingness [3] - The job market shows signs of easing, with a decrease in the number of new jobs despite a relatively low unemployment rate [3] Inflation Concerns - Current inflation levels, while lower than previous peaks, remain above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [3] - Core inflation persists at elevated levels due to factors such as energy price volatility and lingering supply chain issues [3] - The potential for rising inflation poses a significant threat to long-term economic stability, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [3] Market Expectations - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions show significant divergence, with a 97.8% probability of maintaining current rates in the short term [4] - By July, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut rises to 22%, indicating growing market concerns about the US economic outlook [4] - Recent declines in US Treasury yields reflect market expectations of potential rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [4] Monetary Policy Implications - Rate cuts could lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, potentially stimulating investment and consumption [5] - Lower interest rates may enhance the competitiveness of the US economy amid global economic slowdowns and trade tensions [5] - Political factors may influence the Fed's decisions, especially in election years, as there may be pressure to lower rates to stimulate the economy [5] Conclusion - The Fed's interest rate decision is currently in a delicate balance, with considerations for inflation control and economic stimulation [5] - Future decisions will depend on dynamic economic data, inflation trends, and evolving market expectations, impacting both the US economy and global financial markets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have subtly shifted, with a high probability of maintaining rates in June and a growing concern for potential rate cuts in July [1][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Maintaining Interest Rates - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is as high as 97.8%, reflecting market assessments of the current economic situation and inflation levels [3]. - Although there are signs of economic recovery in the U.S., growth momentum remains insufficient, particularly in consumption and investment sectors [3]. - Current inflation, while rising, is still within the Fed's 2% target range, and the Fed views this increase as "temporary," influenced by supply chain bottlenecks and rising energy prices [3]. Group 2: Possibility and Considerations for Rate Cuts - Despite the high probability of maintaining rates in June, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point cut in July stands at 22%, indicating concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [4][5]. - Economic growth uncertainty, particularly in consumer confidence and corporate investment, suggests that rate cuts could stimulate borrowing and spending [5]. - Global economic slowdown and ongoing trade tensions are impacting the U.S. economy, and rate cuts could enhance competitiveness and mitigate external pressures [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investor Behavior - Recent declines in U.S. Treasury yields reflect an increased market expectation for rate cuts, while the dollar's exchange rate has also been influenced by anticipated Fed easing policies [6]. - Investors are adjusting their portfolios in response to changing expectations regarding Fed rate decisions, potentially increasing allocations to bonds and equities for higher returns [7]. - The Fed's future rate decisions will depend on economic data performance and global economic dynamics, necessitating investors to closely monitor these factors for timely strategy adjustments [7].

@ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS | 预测利率 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.25%-3.50% | | | 0.0% | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 0.7% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 14.6% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 5.4% | 25.7% | 51.6% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 94.6% | 73.1% | 33.1% | 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.6% 金十数据5月22日讯，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.6%，降息25个基点的概率为5.4%。美联储7月 维持利率不变的概率为73.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为25.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.2%。 ...

美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.4% 金十数据5月19日讯，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.4%，降息25个基点的概率为8.6%。美联储7月 维持利率不变的概率为66.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为30.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为2.3%。 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 | 预测利率 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.25%-3.50% | | | 0.0% | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 1.2% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 17.4% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 8.6% | 30.8% | 49.9% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 91.4% | 66.9% | 31.5% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS ...

美国CPI公布后，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率基本不变 金十数据5月13日讯，据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.7%（公布前为91.8%），降息25个基点的概率 为8.3%。美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为63.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为34.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为2.6%。 | 预测利率 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.25%-3.50% | | | 0.0% | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 1.7% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 23.6% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 8.3% | 34.2% | 53.5% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 91.7% | 63.3% | 21.2% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS ...

美国CPI公布前，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.8% 金十数据5月13日讯，据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.8%，降息25个基点的概率为8.2%。美联储7月 维持利率不变的概率为61.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为35.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为2.7%。 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS | 预测利率 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.25%-3.50% | | | 0.0% | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 1.8% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 24.1% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 8.2% | 35.9% | 52.3% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 91.8% | 61.4% | 21.9% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 ...

Group 1 - Trump criticizes Fed Chair Powell, calling him "too late" and incompetent, while claiming that inflation is nearly nonexistent and costs are decreasing [1][4][9] - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, with Powell emphasizing that Trump's demands for rate cuts will not influence the Fed's decisions [3][6] - Powell warns that ongoing tariffs could lead to rising inflation, economic slowdown, and increased unemployment, highlighting the uncertainty in the current economic environment [3][7] Group 2 - Trump's ongoing pressure for rate cuts reflects his belief that lower rates are essential for economic growth, contrasting with Powell's cautious approach [4][9] - The U.S. economy faces risks of simultaneous inflation and economic slowdown, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [7] - Recent tariffs imposed by Trump are believed to exacerbate recession risks, with public sentiment turning negative regarding job prospects and the impact of tariffs on daily expenses [7][9]

上个月，美国CPI数据超预期降温。美国3月CPI同比增长2.4%，增幅创7个月新低，且低于预期值2.5% 和前值2.8%；美国3月核心CPI同比增长2.8%，增幅创2021年3月以来最低，且低于预期值3%和前值 3.1%。 目前，据CME"美联储观察"统计，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为82.7%，降息25个基点的概率为 17.3%。美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为40.8%，累计降息25个基点的概率为50.7%，累计降息50个基 点的概率为8.7%。 北京时间周一，离岸人民币盘中突然拉升。美元对离岸人民币汇率一度跌逾200点，随后跌幅有所收 窄，现报7.2268。 | < V | | 美元兑离岸人民币 | | ા છે વ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | USDCNH.FX | | | | | | 7.22680 | 前未 | 7.24054 | 今开 | 7.22410 | | -0.01374 -0.19% | 卖品 | 7.22796 | 买入 | 7.22564 | | 最高 7.22766 今年来 | | -1.20% | 5分钟 | 0.75% | | 最低 ...

美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为82.7% 金十数据5月12日讯，据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为82.7%，降息25个基点的概率为17.3%。美联储7 月维持利率不变的概率为40.8%，累计降息25个基点的概率为50.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为8.7%。 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS | 预测利率 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.25%-3.50% | | | 0.0% | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 5.7% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 36.1% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 17.3% | 50.4% | 44.1% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 82.7% | 40.8% | 14.0% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 ...