贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/07/08 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3315.35 36.25 1384.00 1130.00 67.93 9798.00 变化 -16.55 -0.64 6.00 8.00 - -73.50 | 交 易 数 据 | | --- | | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | 15499.06 | 1330.70 | 947.66 | 14868.74 | 1323.23 | 1 | 2 | | 变化 | - | -9.05 | - | - | -34.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 贵 金 属 比 价 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The precious metals market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. After the release of the strong US June non - farm payrolls report last Thursday, gold futures prices dropped and then rebounded, while the US dollar index jumped and then fell. Silver and gold oscillated on Friday. The outcome of tariff negotiations between the US, the EU, and other countries will impact the global economy and financial markets, and the implementation of global trade negotiations needs further observation. Investors are advised to remain on the sidelines [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.11% to $3346.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.14% to $37.14 per ounce. During the night session, the main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.19% to 777.00 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 0.16% to 8931 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - As of 8:32 on the 5th, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, remained unchanged at 947.66 tons compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The US President stated that he had signed 12 trade letters and planned to send them on Monday. Bessent said that trade consultations with the EU were in progress, and major news might be announced in the next two days [1]. - The Tariff Commission of the State Council decided to impose anti - dumping duties on imported relevant brandy from the EU starting from July 5, 2025 [1]. Market Logic - The stronger - than - expected US June non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night led traders to withdraw their bets on a Fed rate cut this month, causing a plunge in gold futures prices followed by a rebound, while the US dollar index jumped and then fell. Silver and gold oscillated on Friday. The expiration of the grace period for reciprocal tariffs set by the US on July 9 and the final negotiation results of tariffs between the US, the EU, and other countries will affect the global economy and financial markets [1]. Trading Strategy - Precious metal prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and investors are advised to stay on the sidelines. COMEX gold is expected to trade between $3250 - $3480 per ounce, COMEX silver between $35.0 - $37.4 per ounce, the main contract of Shanghai gold between 750 - 800 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver between 8450 - 9075 yuan per kilogram [1].

升 贴 水 、 库 存 、 E T F 持 仓 变 化 以上图表数据来源：彭博、永安源点资讯、万得 贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/07/04 价 格 表 现 | 品种 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦银 | 伦敦铂 | 伦敦钯 | WTI原油 | LME铜 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最新 | 3332.15 | 36.88 | 1383.00 | 1127.00 | 67.00 | 9981.50 | | 变化 | -3.55 | 0.57 | 24.00 | 2.00 | -0.45 | 27.00 | | 品种 | 美元指数 | 欧元兑美元 | 英镑兑美元 | 美元兑日元 | 美国10年期TIPS | | | 最新 | - | - | - | - | - | | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | | 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

隔夜美元刷新近三年新低,贵金属延续反弹,不过在美国公布经济数据后有所回落。ISM制造业PM149、职位 空缺上升至去年11月以来最高水平均超预期，体现经济韧性。鲍威尔讲话重申在经济依然稳健的情况下美联 储选择保持耐心，无法断言7月降息是否为时过早，下一步行动将完全取决于数据表现。特朗普称不考虑延 长贸易谈判最后期限，随着即将到来的明确政策落地市场风险情绪面临波动,贵金属保持观望。 ★美国总统特朗普周二表示,他不考虑延长各国与美国谈判贸易协议的最后期限 -- 7月9日,并对能否与日 本达成协议表示怀疑。特朗普称："我们已经和日本打过交道了。我不确定我们能不能运成协议。我对比表 示怀疑。"特朗普表示，他可能会对从日本进口的商品征收"30%、35%或任何我们决定的数字"的关税，这 远高于他在4月2日宣布的24%的税率。 ★美国财政部长贝森特周二表示,他认为美联储会在秋季之前降息,最迟在9月份肯定会降息。 ★当地时间7月1日，美国国会参议院通过全面减税和支出法案，并提交众议院。美国众议院将于2日就法案 进行辩论和投票。由于参议院对该法案有较大修改,这项被特朗普称为"大而美"法案的修订法案现在将返 回众议院,需要得到众 ...

Group 1 - Hilltop Metal Mining (SVM.US) saw a 6.40% increase in stock price, reaching $4.49, with a year-to-date gain of 50% [1] - Gold prices rose for the second consecutive trading day, increasing by 1.7%, recovering losses from the past two weeks [1] - International copper prices surged, with a peak of $9,984 per ton, and COMEX copper rising nearly 2% [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 LME copper price forecast from $9,140 per ton to $9,890 per ton, expecting a peak of $10,050 per ton in August [1] - Hilltop focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of non-ferrous and precious metal mines, including silver, gold, lead, and zinc [1] - The EL Domo copper-gold project has completed a feasibility study, with a resource estimate of 10.1 million tons containing 22.9 tons of gold, 438.2 tons of silver, 20.8 million tons of copper, 25.5 million tons of zinc, and 2.3 million tons of lead [1] Group 3 - The optimism surrounding the U.S. "Build Back Better" legislation is believed to be a key driver for the rise in copper prices [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell below 97, with a decline of over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the worst performance since 1973 [2] - Goldman Sachs now anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points starting September 2025, compared to a previous forecast of only one cut in December [2]

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/07/02 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3349.00 36.51 1350.00 1134.00 65.45 9966.50 变化 61.55 0.53 17.00 15.00 0.34 89.00 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 - - - - - 变化 - - - - - 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | - | 1338.84 | 948.23 | 14869.01 | 1357.85 | 1 | 1 | | 变化 | - | 39.08 | -4.30 | 42.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 贵 金 属 比 价 升 贴 水 ...

| | | 贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/07/01 | 价 格 表 现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦银 | 伦敦铂 | 伦敦钯 | WTI原油 | LME铜 | | 最新 | 3271.75 | 35.98 | 1333.00 | 1119.00 | 65.52 | 9877.50 | | 变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -59.00 | 30.00 | 0.00 | -16.00 | | 品种 | 美元指数 | 欧元兑美元 | 英镑兑美元 | 美元兑日元 | 美国10年期TIPS | | | 最新 | 97.26 | 1.17 | 1.37 | 144.64 | 2.00 | | | 变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market demonstrated strong resilience in the first half of the year, with major indices showing an upward trend despite external uncertainties, leading to optimistic expectations for the second half of the year [1][3]. Market Performance - On June 30, the A-share market closed with all three major indices rising: the Shanghai Composite Index at 3444.43 points, up 0.59%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.83%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.35%. A total of 4056 stocks in the market were in the green [3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a cumulative increase of 2.76% in the first half of the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index saw increases of 0.49% and 0.53%, respectively. The STAR 50 Index rose by 9.93%, and the North Exchange's North 50 Index surged by 39.45% [3][4]. Sector Performance - The military, semiconductor, and photolithography sectors led the market, while previously strong sectors like banking, brokerage, and oil and gas showed weakness [3]. - Over 3700 stocks increased in value during the first half, with more than 100 stocks rising over 100%. Notably, nearly 20 bank stocks reached historical highs [4]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market's total market capitalization surpassed 100 trillion yuan, marking a historic milestone [5]. - The market experienced structural differentiation, with technology stocks and small-cap stocks outperforming the market, while high-dividend sectors like non-ferrous metals and banking also performed well [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the A-share market will face significant tests from earnings, trade, and policy variables in the second half, with increased volatility but also potential structural opportunities [10]. - Institutions expect that sectors with strong and certain mid-year earnings, such as wind power, gaming, pets, small metals, rare earths, and brokerages, will be key areas of focus [11].

美国德克萨斯州州长Greg Abbott签署一项法案，允许德州居民在日常金融交易中使用贵金属。根据该法案，居民可将黄金或白银存入银行账户，选择将这些持有的资产转换为美元金额。Abbott表示，“德州人应有权使用真正有价值的货币进行交易，我们正迈出重要一步，恢复货币体系的稳定与信任。”该法案将于2027年5月1日生效，以便各州机构有充足的时间建立必要的基础设施和法规。 ...

贵金属周一全线低开低走，现货黄金跌破3250美元/盎司，跌0.80%、现货白银跌1.5%、现货钯金、现货铂金分别跌0.8%。 ...