Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a cooling effect due to uncertainties and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to a continued but weakening fluctuation in gold prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures saw a weekly increase of 0.28%, closing at $4007.82 per ounce, ending a two-week decline [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) experienced a slight weekly decline of 0.03%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) fell by 2.53% [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a historic duration, with no agreement on the funding bill between the two parties, and the economic impact is becoming evident [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown could reduce the economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter [1] Group 3: Market Drivers - According to Chaos Tiancheng Futures Analysis, factors such as the ISM manufacturing PMI, Challenger job cuts, and weak consumer confidence are influencing the market [1] - The ongoing government shutdown is causing a slight weakening of the dollar index and fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, which are exerting less pressure on precious metals [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, indicating significant volatility in precious metals in the short term, with multiple driving factors yet to be released [1]

Market Analysis - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3997.56 points, down 0.25%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13404.06 points, down 0.36% [6][10] - The basic chemical sector is leading the gains, with the basic chemical index rising by 2.64%, while the technology sector is under pressure, with declines in various indices [6][10] - The overall market shows 2099 stocks rising and 3155 stocks falling, with a total transaction volume of 2.02 trillion, indicating active trading [6][10] Bond Market - The bond futures market continues to show a weak adjustment, with the 30-year contract closing at 115.95 yuan, down 0.15% [10] - The funding environment remains relatively loose, with the overnight Shibor rising by 1.4 basis points to 1.327% [10] - A cautious optimism is suggested for the bond market, with attention to domestic policies and the effects of central bank operations [10][11] Commodity Market - The commodity index has slightly adjusted, with lithium carbonate showing strong performance, up 3.24% [10] - Lithium carbonate futures closed at 82,300 yuan per ton, supported by high demand growth in battery production [10] - Gold prices are stabilizing around 4000 USD per ounce, with the central bank continuing to increase its gold reserves [10][11] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation strategy focusing on dividend stocks, micro-cap stocks, and industry trends, while being cautious of the current market's volatility [6][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of U.S. tech stock fluctuations on the A-share growth sector [6][11] - The report emphasizes the potential for strong performance in commodities like lithium and precious metals, recommending continued investment in these areas [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The easing of geopolitical trade tensions has led to an optimistic macro sentiment for industrial metal prices, although further upward potential will depend on domestic and international supply-demand dynamics as the peak season ends [1] Industrial Metals - The current macro sentiment remains optimistic for industrial metal prices, influenced by the easing of geopolitical trade tensions [1] - The upward potential for industrial metal prices will rely on the interpretation of supply-demand logic both domestically and internationally as the peak season concludes [1] Precious Metals - The combination of a hawkish Fed rate cut and the easing of US-China trade tensions has resulted in a correction in precious metal prices [1] - Following the JH meeting, the probability of a rate cut in December is considered high under the scenario of no significant inflation increase, maintaining a macro framework favorable for long positions in precious metals [1] - The mid-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations for a rebound after the current price correction [1] Mining ETF - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which includes securities from companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare metals [1] - The mining ETF has outperformed the CSI Non-Ferrous Index by nearly 10% this year, indicating a concentration in leading companies, with a higher proportion of gold, copper, and rare earths [1]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3986.50 with a change of 18.30 [1] - London Silver latest price is 48.69 with a change of 1.08 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1556.00 with a change of 11.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1417.00 with a change of 12.00 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 10767.00 with a change of 99.00 [1] - US Dollar Index latest is 99.70 with a change of -0.46 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.15 with a change of 0.01 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.31 with a change of 0.01 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 153.06 with a change of -1.06 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory latest is 14975.33 with a change of 0.31 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory latest is 639.94 with a change of -16.23 [1] - Gold ETF holdings latest is 1040.35 with a change of 1.72 [1] - Silver ETF holdings latest is 15114.03 with a change of -36.68 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction change is 1.00 [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction change is 0.00 [1]

Macro News - The U.S. Treasury yields have rebounded significantly, with the 10-year Treasury yield returning to 4.11%, primarily due to high corporate bond issuance and uncertainty surrounding monetary policy following hawkish comments from Powell last week [1] - The dollar index has shown a notable rebound, approaching the critical level of 100, influenced by expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the weakening of non-U.S. currencies [1] - The Federal Reserve's mixed signals create uncertainty in the market, with various officials expressing differing views on the potential for a rate cut in December, indicating that while risks to employment and inflation are rising, a rate cut is not guaranteed [1] Economic Data - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 48.7, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction, falling short of the expected 49.5 and down from the previous value of 49.1 [2] - New orders have declined for the second consecutive month, and the production index remains weak, with the price payment index hitting a new low for the year [2] - The ongoing government shutdown continues to pose risks, with the latest vote failing to pass, which may enhance market uncertainty and increase safe-haven demand for precious metals [2] Institutional Views - Precious metals are currently in a volatile trend, facing pressure from the significant rebound in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, leading to a weaker performance [2] - Previous short-term corrections have lowered volatility, and recent optimistic expectations have not materialized, suggesting a higher likelihood of renewed risks in the future [2] - Despite the challenges, there are indications that precious metals may have support for recovery in the medium to long term, although fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index need to be monitored closely [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to gradually stabilize and enter a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities by buying on dips after stabilization [6]. - Medium - to long - term, due to factors such as the Fed remaining in the interest - rate cut cycle, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition increasing dollar credit risk, and continued gold purchases by global central banks, the medium - to long - term center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue rising. Long - term investors are advised to allocate on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On October 31, 2025, compared with October 30, 2025, London gold spot rose 0.9%, London silver spot rose 2.6%, COMEX gold rose 0.9%, COMEX silver rose 2.1%, AU2512 rose 1.1%, AG2512 rose 1.7%, AU (T + D) rose 1.1%, and AG (T + D) rose 1.6% [5]. - Regarding price spreads/ratios, from October 30 to 31, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by 4.5%, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread increased by 16.3%, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) increased by 33.8%, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) increased by 12.9%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.6%, the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.2%, AU2602 - 2512 increased by 10.1%, and AG2602 - 2512 increased by 4.2% [5]. 2. Position Data - From October 30 to 31, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.11%, the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 1.85%, COMEX gold non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43%, COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 0.13%, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 0.97%, COMEX silver non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21%, and COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 1.43% [5]. 3. Inventory Data - From October 30 to 31, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.41%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.20%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.14% [5]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - From October 30 to 31, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.02%, the US dollar index increased by 0.19%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.28%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the VIX increased by 3.13%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.26%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.98% [5]. 5. Market Review - On October 31, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.27% to 921.92 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.41% to 11441 yuan/kilogram [5]. 6. Analysis and Short - Term Outlook - The decline in market risk appetite, the ongoing US government shutdown, and the intensification of local geopolitical situations have led to a recovery in safe - haven demand, boosting the stabilization and rebound of precious metal prices. Although Fed Chairman Powell said a December interest - rate cut is far from certain, the market still generally predicts it as the baseline scenario, providing support for the precious metal market. However, due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the strong performance of the US dollar index, the internal differences among Fed officials, and the marginal easing of the US government shutdown, the short - term upward space for a unilateral trend in precious metals may be relatively limited [6]. 7. Medium - to Long - Term Outlook - In the medium to long term, factors such as the Fed remaining in the interest - rate cut cycle, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition increasing dollar credit risk, and continued gold purchases by global central banks will likely cause the medium - to long - term center of gravity of gold prices to continue rising [6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong performance with major indices rising significantly, indicating positive investor sentiment and market momentum [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4016 points, up 0.7% [1][2]. - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.95%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.93% [1][2]. - The North Exchange 50 Index saw a substantial gain of 8.41% [1][2]. - Total market turnover reached 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 125.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with nearly 2700 stocks rising [1]. Sector Performance - The photovoltaic equipment sector surged, with companies like Longi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., and JA Solar Technology hitting the daily limit [3]. - The Hainan sector also performed well, with Haikou Group and Haide Shares reaching their daily limit [3]. - Lithium prices rose due to supportive energy storage policies, boosting lithium mining stocks like Chuaneng Power [3]. - The non-ferrous metals sector was active, with Nanshan Aluminum hitting the daily limit [3]. - Other sectors with notable gains included precious metals, BC batteries, and glass fiber [3]. Declining Sectors - Banking stocks generally fell, with Chengdu Bank dropping nearly 6% [3]. - The blind box economy faced a downturn, with Shunwang Technology leading the decline [3]. - The commercial retail sector also saw widespread losses, with Xiamen Xinda falling over 7% [3]. - Other sectors that experienced significant declines included micro盘 stocks, shipbuilding, and childcare services [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating [1][2][3][4][6][7][9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term asset allocation should be balanced. After the Fed's interest rate cut decision in the October meeting, the progress of China - US tariff talks, and the release of details from the 20th Fourth Plenary Session, it is expected to benefit overseas and domestic equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals. Black commodities may also have a rebound opportunity due to domestic policy improvement, while precious metals may continue to adjust in the short term [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US government shutdown continued this week. China - US tariff expectations eased, and the CPI in September was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of monetary easing. Reasons include the lower - than - expected September CPI, the 12th rejection of the temporary budget bill by the Senate, the increased economic downward pressure after the government shutdown, and the easing of China - US tariff expectations [6] - **Domestic Macro**: On October 28, the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" and its explanatory notes were released, emphasizing the strategic position of science and technology and emerging industries, and also covering areas such as boosting consumption, expanding effective investment, and "anti - involution" [6] - **Asset Views**: Short - term balanced allocation is recommended. After the Fed's interest rate cut decision, China - US tariff talks, and the release of details from the plenary session, equity sectors and non - ferrous metals may benefit, black commodities may rebound, and precious metals may continue to adjust [6] 3.2 Market Performance of Various Assets - **Financial Market**: Stock index futures showed a shrinking - volume rebound, with the growth style being active due to technology events. Stock index options had a slightly lower trading volume. Treasury bond futures remained weak [2][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver entered a short - term adjustment phase due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade tensions [7] - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line was under pressure as the peak season in the third quarter ended [7] - **Black Building Materials**: The steel industry faced policy disturbances and inventory pressure. Iron ore was mainly affected by sentiment. Coke's price increase was about to be implemented, and coking coal prices were strong. Other related products also had their own market characteristics [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper prices fell in the short term due to trade frictions. Aluminum prices rose, while zinc prices were weak. Other non - ferrous metals also showed different trends [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical industry still faced a weak supply - demand situation. Most products were expected to fluctuate, with some showing a downward trend [9] - **Agriculture**: The agricultural market showed a mixed trend. Some products were affected by factors such as weather, trade relations, and supply - demand [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Sell short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: Postpone [9] Core View - The Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates in October, and the market has fully priced in this expected rate cut. Coupled with factors that reduce short-term risk aversion, precious metals are expected to continue to show a volatile trend [8]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the procedural vote on the "2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" for the 13th time, so the government shutdown will continue. ADP will launch weekly employment data, and the first report shows that the average number of private-sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 14,250 in the four weeks ending October 11 [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On October 28, 2025, the Shanghai Gold futures main contract opened at 926.92 yuan/gram and closed at 901.38 yuan/gram, down 3.51% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 905.06 yuan/gram, up 0.41% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai Silver futures main contract opened at 11,268.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,049.00 yuan/kg, down 3.03% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,052,828 lots, and the open interest was 321,876 lots. The night session closed at 11,180 yuan/kg, up 1.19% from the afternoon session [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 28, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.974%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.492%, up 0.21 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On October 28, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 541 lots, and the short positions decreased by 242 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 643,413 lots, a change of 24.38% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts was 1,760,723 lots, a change of 35.58% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,038.92 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,210 tons, a decrease of 131 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 28, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 20.15 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -625.43 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 81.58, down 0.49% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 85.07, up 0.90% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On October 28, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 67,744 kg, a change of 21.58% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 765,416 kg, a change of 17.10% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 16,830 kg [7].

Group 1 - The A-share market opened with all three major indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.4%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.07% [1] - Sectors such as precious metals, PCB, and CPO concepts experienced a strong opening [1]