1. Report Industry Investment Rating | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Bearish | | US Dollar | Sideways | | US Stocks | Sideways | | Commodities | Sideways | | A-shares | Sideways | | Treasury Bonds | Sideways | [28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, trade conflict expectations fluctuated, with tariff changes being the main market trading theme. The US May non-farm payroll report exceeded expectations, delaying the market's interest rate cut expectations to September and December. Risk appetite declined at the beginning of the week and rebounded on Friday. Different assets had varying understandings and trades regarding trade conflicts, and price discrepancies need to be resolved. In the short term, trade conflicts are not expected to worsen further, but the future trade situation remains severe [6]. - The global risk appetite continued to recover this week, with most of the equity markets rising. The US dollar weakened, while other currencies generally strengthened. The yields of most major global national treasury bonds rose. The commodity index increased significantly, and the sentiment in the domestic commodity market improved marginally [8][10][15][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Trade conflict expectations were volatile this week, and tariff changes dominated market trading. The US May non-farm payroll report alleviated concerns about a US economic recession, delaying interest rate cut expectations. Different assets showed different responses to trade conflicts, and price discrepancies need to be addressed. In the short term, trade conflicts are unlikely to worsen further, but the future trade situation remains challenging [6]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Market - Most of the global equity markets rose this week. Among developed markets, the South Korean KOSPI index rose 4.2%, the S&P 500 rose 1.5%, and the German DAX index rose 1.3%, while the Nikkei 225 declined slightly by 0.6%. Among emerging markets, most indices recorded gains, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rising 2.2%, the Saudi All-Share Index rising 1.7%, the Taiwan Weighted Index rising 1.5%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.1%. In the MSCI global index, most national indices rose, with emerging markets > frontier markets > emerging markets > developed markets [8][9]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar weakened this week, while other currencies generally strengthened. The US Dollar Index fell 0.24% and fluctuated around 100. Among emerging markets, the Brazilian real appreciated 2.87%, the Mexican peso appreciated 1.7%, the Thai baht appreciated 0.45%, and the onshore RMB appreciated slightly by 0.15%. Among developed markets, the South Korean won appreciated significantly by 1.65%, the Australian dollar appreciated 0.91%, and the Japanese yen depreciated 0.55% [10]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - The yields of most major global national treasury bonds rose. In developed markets, the US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.51%, the eurozone government bond yield rose slightly to 2.61%, the Japanese government bond yield fell to 1.48%, and the Singapore government bond yield dropped significantly to 2.22%. In emerging markets, the Chinese government bond yield fell slightly to 1.66%, and the Brazilian government bond yield rose significantly to 14.18% [15]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - The commodity index increased significantly this week. WTI crude oil rose 6.55% to $64.8 per barrel, natural gas rose 9.8%, and the metal sector generally closed higher. COMEX gold rose slightly by 0.47% to $3331 per ounce, LME copper rose 1.82%, and COMEX silver soared 9.4%. The sentiment in the domestic commodity market improved marginally, with the black index rising significantly by 3.9%, and the performance ranking as black > agricultural products > precious metals > non-ferrous metals > industrial products > energy and chemicals [21][22]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - The change in the US foreign tariff policy remains the short-term core focus of the market. Overall, the room for further deterioration of short-term tariffs is limited, causing the gold price to rise first and then fall, with the high point gradually decreasing. The US economic data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements maintain a hawkish and pause interest rate cut tone, which is bearish for gold from a fundamental perspective. The CFTC gold speculative net long positions stopped falling and rebounded slightly, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased slightly. The London silver price soared last week, and the gold-silver ratio quickly recovered. The silver's catch-up rally may indicate a phased peak for precious metals [31][35][44]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The economic data released this week showed that the economic fundamentals are under increasing downward pressure, while the labor market remains resilient. The US dollar index is in a tug-of-war, and the Fed is expected to maintain a cautious wait-and-see approach in the short term. The market's expectation of a cooling of trade conflicts has increased, but the second round of trade negotiations may be more difficult than the first. In the short term, the US dollar index will maintain a sideways trend [45]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - The market continued to trade around tariff changes this week. The phone call between Chinese and US leaders released a positive signal, boosting market sentiment in the short term. However, as the expiration of the tariff suspension in July approaches, the risk of increased tariff pressure still exists. The US economic data continues to decline, but there are no obvious signs of deterioration, and the non-farm payroll data on Friday maintained resilience, further alleviating market recession concerns. The market's expectation of the economy is relatively optimistic, but if the inflation data rebounds more than expected next week, it will still bring correction risks to US stocks [50]. 3.3.4 Commodities - This week, the top gainers in the domestic market included silver, coking coal, tin, INE crude oil, coke, low-sulfur fuel oil, LPG, methanol, rubber, and CSI 500, while the top losers included ferrosilicon, urea, pulp, rapeseed oil, ethylene glycol, rapeseed meal, live pigs, PTA, styrene, and corn starch. The gainers were concentrated in the industrial products sector, while the losers were concentrated in agricultural products [61]. 3.3.5 A-shares - Recently, with the success of the market's bet on the "taco" trade, the probability of the outperformance of micro-cap growth stocks has increased, leading to a divergence in industry gains. Among the A-share CITIC first-level industries, 23 rose (20 last week) and 7 fell (10 last week). The leading industry was communications (+5.06%), and the industry with the largest decline was home appliances (-1.75%) [68]. 3.3.6 Treasury Bonds - Although the factors driving the bond market's strength are mainly at the expectation level, and the market may experience fluctuations, the long-term upward trend is relatively clear. Currently, the bond bull market is in the accumulation phase, and it is recommended to adopt a bullish approach [28]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High-Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The GDPNow model predicts that the Q2 growth rate will rebound to 3.8%. As the intensity of import rush fades, the drag of import data on GDP data weakens, and retail sales data remains resilient. The rebound in crude oil prices and tariff pressure have made it difficult to eliminate the market's concerns about long-term economic stagflation risks. The number of initial and continued jobless claims has risen to recent highs, and the unemployment rate may continue to rise in the future. The bank reserve amount has rebounded to $3.4 trillion, the TGA account balance has decreased to $376 billion, and the reverse repurchase scale has remained at around $150 billion. The financial market liquidity has turned loose, and corporate spreads have declined. The US economy has not fully weakened, and inflation still has the risk of rebounding. It is expected that the Fed will maintain a cautious wait-and-see approach, and the market has basically priced in the suspension of interest rate cuts in May and June, with only a 51.8% probability of interest rate cuts starting in September [89][98][106]. 3.4.2 Domestic High-Frequency Economic Data Tracking - This week, the sales volume of first-hand housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities declined more than seasonally. The number and price of second-hand housing listings were both weak. Automobile sales declined slightly year-on-year, while international oil prices fluctuated slightly upward to around $68 per barrel. In terms of capital interest rates, as of the close on April 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1-week were 1.84%, 1.80%, 1.76%, and 1.76% respectively, with changes of +18.09, +16.28, +19.30, and +12.40 bp compared to the previous weekend's close. In terms of repurchase transactions, the average daily trading volume of interbank pledged repurchase this week was 5.46 trillion yuan, 196.1 billion yuan less than last week (5.66 trillion yuan), and the overnight proportion was 78.44%, lower than the previous week's level (77.10%). In April, the economic data weakened. The growth rate of social retail sales decreased from the previous value of 5.9% to 5.1%, and the cumulative investment growth rate of the manufacturing industry from January to April decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous value. The cumulative infrastructure growth rate also decreased slightly to 10.9%. In April, the new RMB credit weakened. The new medium and long-term loans of the household sector turned negative again, and the phenomenon of household deleveraging still exists. The medium and long-term loans of the enterprise sector decreased significantly year-on-year, and the corporate bonds increased slightly year-on-year in a low-interest rate environment. The new government bonds increased significantly year-on-year in April, indicating that fiscal policy is front-loaded this year. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, while the M1 growth rate fluctuated at a low level, and the level of currency activation remained low. In April, China's CPI同比 decreased by 0.1%, and the core CPI同比 increased by 0.5%. The PPI同比 decreased by 2.7%. China's exports in April (in US dollars) increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and the import growth rate was -0.2% [113][126][137][144][151].

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：：贸易冲突或将降低当地通胀。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，加拿大央行周三宣布维持基准利率在2.75%不变，这是连续第二次会议维持利率水 平不变。尽管如此，央行官员也明确表示，若美国关税措施拖累经济增长、通胀保持受控，不排除未来 降息的可能性。 尽管加拿大联邦政府对部分美国进口商品征收了报复性关税，麦克勒姆指出，这些关税目前对消费者价 格的直接影响仍未明显体现。他补充称，目前加方的报复性措施远低于政府预计的200亿加元规模。 麦克勒姆透露，政策委员会在本次会议上达成了暂停加息的一致意见，同时也就未来政策路径展开了讨 论，意见出现分歧。他指出："如果美国关税持续、经济承压、通胀压力受控，我们可能有必要下调政 策利率。" 这是加拿大央行首次在当前货币宽松周期中，明确释放未来可能降息的信号。虽然未在声明中提供关于 GDP和通胀的具体预测值(自新冠疫情以来首次如此)，整体语气显示出一定的鸽派倾向。 此次决议符合市场普遍预期和彭博社调查中大多数经济学家的预测。加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆领导的货 币政策委员会表示，在美国总统特朗普发起的贸易冲突持续影响经济之际，当前维持利率有助于观察更 多经济数据和政策影响。 加拿大央行在声明中指出，特朗普政府对加拿大出口产品加征 ...

加拿大央行维持关键利率不变 但未来可能降息 金十数据6月4日讯，加拿大央行周三将关键基准利率维持在2.75%不变，称有必要调查美国贸易政策的 影响，但表示，如果经济因关税而走弱，可能有必要再次降息。这一决定标志着加拿大央行连续第二次 持观望态度，此前9个月的大幅降息周期将利率已下调了225个基点。加拿大央行行长在新闻发布会上 说："美国发起的贸易冲突仍然是加拿大经济面临的最大逆风。"他形容美国的贸易政策高度不可预测。 他表示："在我们获得更多信息的同时，我们有一个明确的共识，即保持政策不变。" ...

机构观点 恒泰期货： 消息面 卫星数据显示，2024年5月26日-6月1日期间，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存总量1308.0万 吨，环比下降109.4万吨，库存高位回落，但绝对量仍小幅略高于二季度以来的平均水平。 2025年5月26日-6月1日中国47港铁矿石到港总量2597.4万吨，环比增加253.3万吨；中国45港铁矿石到港 总量2536.5万吨，环比增加385.2万吨；北方六港铁矿石到港总量1540.8万吨，环比增加482.0万吨。 5月30日，全国主港铁矿石成交73.7万吨，环比减少32.2%；远期现货成交63.0万吨。 本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回落，但主流矿山发运量保持平稳回升态势，需求端铁水产量连续三周下 行，基本面边际走弱。钢材现实需求继续走弱，五大钢材整体面临供增需减格局，成材下跌使得对原料 采购刚需减少。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前240的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水 持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁关税至50%，资金和情绪端持续表现出偏空，关注市场对关税的消 化反应以及减产的推进程度，本轮贸易冲突缓和带来的反弹行情里已经介入空单的投资者，则继续持 有。 供给上，全球 ...

| 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回落，但主流矿山发运量保持平稳回 | 升态势，需求端铁水产量连续三周下行，基本面边际走弱。钢材现实需求 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 继续走弱，五大钢材整体面临供增需减格局，成材下跌使得对原料采购刚 | 铁矿石 | 偏空 | 需减少。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 | 240 | 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港 | | | | | | | | | 口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁关税至 | 50%， | 资金和情绪端持续表现出偏空，关注市场对关税的消化反应以及减产的推 | | | | | | | | | | | | 进程度，本轮贸易冲突缓和带来的反弹行情里已经介入空单的投资者，则 | 继续持有。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 煤焦：焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，523 | 家样本矿山原煤库存刷出 | 历年新高，随着铁水产量下滑以及焦煤供应的持续增加，远月 | ...

美国政府肆意对贸易伙伴挥舞"关税大棒"，在美国国内遭到普遍质疑。贸易冲突导致美国企业界和业内人士对经济前景的悲观情绪持续蔓延，给美国经济带 来巨大不确定性。 美企CEO信心指数创近50年来最大跌幅 美国经济研究机构"世界大型企业联合会"日前发布数据显示，美国2025年第二季度首席执行官信心指数从此前的60点跌至34点，为2022年第四季度以来的最 低水平，这也是该调查自1976年启动以来的最大环比降幅。外界普遍认为，该指数低于50表明首席执行官对经济前景持悲观态度。 因贸易局势紧张国际航协下调盈利预期 国际航空运输协会理事长威利·沃尔什：现实情况是，任何面临关税的企业都会思考自己能消化多少成本，又有多少可能转嫁给消费者。我理解制造商面临 关税成本的压力，他们显然会尽力做出最优决策，但归根结底，我认为消费者最终将不得不为行业面临的任何成本上涨买单。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 国际航空运输协会6月1日下调了2025年行业盈利预期，称全球航空公司今年的总利润预计将为360亿美元，略低于去年12月预测的366亿美元，并将盈利预期 下降归咎于贸易紧张局势和消费者信心下降。国际航空运输协会理事长威利·沃尔什同时指出，关税将 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as the US tariff policy ruling, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different sectors. Different commodities show different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals [2][5][8][13][16][38][56] - For most commodities, short - term uncertainties exist, and the market is expected to be volatile. Some commodities may have a downward trend due to supply - demand imbalances, while others may be in a state of shock with limited upward or downward space [4][7][10][15][20][39] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Thursday, A - shares opened higher, with major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to 3363.45 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis discount of the main contracts converged [2][3] - News: The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's global tariffs were illegal. The White House may appeal or invoke new legal provisions [3][4] - Funds: On May 29, A - share trading volume increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan [4] - Operation suggestion: The index is expected to continue to oscillate neutrally after short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose [5] - Funds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan. The money market was generally stable [6] - News: The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy exceeded his authority, but the implementation of the ruling is uncertain [6] - Operation suggestion: The bond market may oscillate narrowly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and the money market [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market situation: Gold and silver prices rose due to the uncertainty of the US tariff policy and the re - boosting of risk - aversion sentiment. International gold closed at $3317.87 per ounce, up 0.94%, and silver closed at $33.32 per ounce, up 1.09% [8][10] - News: The US federal court blocked Trump's tariff policy, and the Trump administration appealed. The US economy showed signs of slowdown, and the Fed maintained its stance on monetary policy independence [8][9] - Operation suggestion: Gold can use the virtual - value option double - selling strategy, and silver is recommended to sell relatively virtual - value call options [10][11] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot price: As of May 29, the prices of major shipping companies were in a certain range [13] - Index: The SCFIS European Line Index decreased by 1.44% week - on - week, while the US West Line Index increased by 18.90% [13] - Fundamentals: As of May 29, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.6% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US showed certain economic trends [13] - Logic: The futures price rose due to the possible congestion of European ports caused by the US tariff policy, which may lead to tight shipping capacity in August [14] - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate widely between 1800 - 2400 points [15] Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of May 29, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased, and the market procurement sentiment was general [16] - Macro: The short - term macro environment has little change. The key is the US copper import tariff policy and the US economic fundamentals. The current macro factors do not strongly drive copper prices up [17] - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, but domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to increase in May [18] - Demand: The weekly operating rate of copper rod processing decreased, and the terminal demand may be under pressure in Q3 [19] - Inventory: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased slightly [19] - Logic: Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [20] - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [20] Zinc - Spot: On May 29, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was stable, and the market transaction was average [20] - Supply: A zinc mine may stop production in June, but the overall processing fee remains high. The domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase slightly in May [21] - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries were relatively stable, but some enterprises were cautious about terminal export orders [22] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [22] - Logic: In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - loose cycle. It is recommended to short at high levels and pay attention to zinc ore production and downstream demand changes [23] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [23] Tin - Spot: On May 29, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the market trading was relatively good [23] - Supply: The domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports in April showed different trends [24] - Demand and inventory: The solder operating rate improved in March, but the overall order situation was average. The inventory showed different changes [25] - Logic: Considering supply recovery and weak demand expectations, it is recommended to hold short positions [26][27] - Operation suggestion: Hold short positions [27] Nickel - Spot: As of May 29, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [27] - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level, with an expected production of 35350 tons in May [27] - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was relatively stable, and the demand for stainless steel mills was affected by production adjustments [28] - Inventory: Overseas inventory remained high, while domestic social inventory and bonded area inventory decreased [28] - Logic: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000 [29][30] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [30] Stainless Steel - Spot: As of May 29, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends [30] - Raw materials: The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron was stable [30][32] - Supply: The domestic stainless steel production in May is expected to decrease slightly, with a decrease in the 300 - series production [30] - Inventory: Social inventory and futures inventory decreased [31] - Logic: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12600 - 13200 [32] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200 [32] Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of May 29, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the market sentiment was pessimistic [33] - Supply: The production in April decreased slightly, but the production in May is expected to increase slightly. The supply pressure remains [34] - Demand: The overall demand is average, and the demand may face pressure in the off - season [34] - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [35] - Logic: The market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 56000 - 60000 yuan [36][37] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 56000 - 60000 yuan [37] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rebounded slightly [38] - Supply: The iron element output decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the output of five major steel products increased slightly [38] - Demand: The apparent demand increased slightly, but the domestic demand was in the off - season, and the direct export of steel remained high [39] - Inventory: The steel inventory continued to decrease, while the cold - rolled steel inventory continued to increase [39] - Cost and profit: The profit was stable, with blast furnaces profitable and electric furnaces losing money [39] - Viewpoint: The steel price is expected to be bearish in the long - term, but further decline requires iron ore inventory accumulation [39] Iron Ore - Spot: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased slightly [40] - Futures: The main iron ore contract rose 1.22% to 707 yuan/ton [40] - Basis: The basis of PB powder for the 09 contract was 72.5 yuan/ton [40] - Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [40] - Supply: The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the arrival volume was relatively low [41] - Inventory: The 45 - port inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory was basically stable [41] - Viewpoint: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate between 700 - 745 yuan/ton [41] Coke - Spot and futures: The coke futures continued to decline, and the second round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills was implemented on May 28 [42] - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke was 7 yuan/ton [42] - Supply: The total coke output decreased slightly [42] - Demand: The coke demand decreased slightly [43] - Inventory: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, with different trends in different sectors [44] - Viewpoint: It is recommended to short the 2509 contract after a rebound and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke [44] Coking Coal - Spot and futures: The coking coal futures continued to decline, and the spot market was bearish [45] - Supply: The production of domestic coking coal decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [45][46] - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly [46] - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory increased [46] - Viewpoint: It is recommended to short the 2509 contract after a rebound and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal [47] Ferrosilicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas were stable [48] - Futures: On May 29, the 07 contract of ferrosilicon decreased by 2.38% to 5322 yuan/ton [48] - Cost and profit: The cost of ferrosilicon production in different regions was different, and some enterprises were in the red [48] - Supply: The output of ferrosilicon is expected to continue to decline [49][50] - Demand: The demand for ferrosilicon decreased, and the non - steel demand was weak [50] - Viewpoint: The price of ferrosilicon is expected to oscillate weakly [50] Manganese Silicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas decreased slightly [51] - Futures: On May 29, the 09 contract of manganese silicon decreased by 1.36% to 5530 yuan/ton [51] - Cost: The production cost and profit in different regions were different [51] - Manganese ore: The price of manganese ore was under pressure, and the global shipment decreased slightly [51][52][55] - Supply: The output of manganese silicon increased slightly [52] - Demand: The demand for manganese silicon increased slightly, but the iron water output decreased [53][55] - Viewpoint: The price of manganese silicon is expected to oscillate weakly [55] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [56] - Fundamental news: The global soybean supply is expected to be sufficient, and the inventory will increase significantly [56] - Market outlook: The two - meal market is expected to oscillate, and the soybean meal may face callback risks above 2950 yuan/ton [57][58] Live Pigs - Spot situation: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly [59] - Market data: The breeding profit decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased [59][60] - Market outlook: The pig price is expected to be stable with limited upward and downward space. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [60] Corn - Spot price: The corn prices in different regions were generally stable [61] - Fundamental news: The inventory of corn processing enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of feed enterprises increased [61] - Market outlook: The corn price is expected to oscillate with the shipping rhythm [61]

根据欧盟委员会5月26日声明，美欧双方已就加速贸易谈判达成共识，特朗普政府同意将对欧盟加征 50%关税的期限从原定的6月1日延至7月9日。 这一决定是欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩与特朗普在周日晚上通话后作出的。 报道称，默茨表示完全支持冯德莱恩的应对方式，并重申德国不会单独达成协议而将贸易事务交由欧盟 处理的立场。不过，他也强调必要时欧盟将采取行动。 在距离新关税生效仅剩六周之际，欧盟对美国的态度似乎呈现出"边谈边打"的微妙态势。欧盟一边加速 推进与美国进行贸易谈判，德国总理默茨一边发出警告：若与特朗普政府的贸易冲突升级，欧盟可能对 美国科技公司采取反制措施。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间26日，德国总理默茨表示，德国和其他欧盟国家不希望关税争端升级。从德 国的角度看，加征关税会损害德国的利益，如果欧美谈判无法达成一致，德国没有选择，德国将会对美 国关税政策进行反击。现在的欧美谈判正在努力避免局势升级，德国也希望避免关税战这种情况的出 现。默茨还称，德国需要为欧盟与美国谈判的失败以及其他任何情况做好准备。 此外默茨表示，美国科技公司在欧盟享有有利的税收环境，但这种情况不一定会持续下去，欧盟不希望 与美国陷入关税战升级的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic electrolytic copper continues to accumulate inventory, with expectations for copper prices to rise following improvements in macroeconomic conditions [3]. Group 1: Macro Environment - Recent trade conflicts have eased, but the negative impacts of tariffs and trade disputes on the economy have yet to manifest, which will continue to suppress copper price increases [3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has increased, primarily due to the weakening of preemptive stocking effects against tariffs and the gradual onset of the off-season [3]. - As of May 23, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stands at 780,000 tons, a decrease of 4.8% from the previous week [4]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across major exchanges totaled 452,000 tons as of May 16, 2025, an increase of 4.7% [4]. Group 3: Raw Materials - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper is 867 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, an increase of 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Smelting - As of April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [6]. - The current spot TC price is -44.30 USD/pound, down 1.3 USD/pound from May 16, 2025, remaining at the lowest level since September 2007 [6]. Group 5: Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, had a cable enterprise operating rate of 82.34% as of May 22, 2025, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points from the previous week [7]. - In April 2025, China's household air conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [7]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of May 23, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position was 152,000 lots, a decrease of 11% from the previous week [8]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 21,000 lots as of May 20, 2025, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous week [8].