Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is experiencing a sell-off triggered by fears of a technology stock valuation bubble, leading to increased demand for U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe haven [2][3][6]. Group 1: Market Predictions - DBS Bank predicts that if the stock market continues to decline, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury will drop to 3.8%, down from the current level of approximately 4.07% [2][3]. - TD Securities is more optimistic, forecasting that the benchmark yield will reach 3.50% by the end of 2026 [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of Technology Stocks - Concerns over overvaluation in technology stocks are spreading across global indices, with the semiconductor sector being particularly affected, resulting in a combined market value loss of about $500 billion [3][6]. - The sell-off pressure highlights market worries regarding the AI-related investment bubble [6]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - The bond buying reflects a shift in investor sentiment as funds move towards safe assets amid rising stock volatility [6]. - Factors such as government shutdowns, weak economic data, and liquidity issues are contributing to sustained risk aversion, which is likely to keep bond demand high [6].

Market Overview - As of November 5, U.S. stock index futures showed mixed results, with Dow futures up 0.04%, S&P 500 futures down 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.24% [1] - European indices also displayed varied performance, with Germany's DAX down 0.37%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.04%, France's CAC40 down 0.05%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.41% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.31% to $60.37 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 0.20% to $64.31 per barrel [3][4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown has led to uncertainty regarding the release of key economic data, including the non-farm payroll report originally scheduled for release on Friday [5] - The ADP employment report, often referred to as the "little non-farm," is expected to show an increase of 28,000 jobs in October, a significant reversal from the previous month's loss of 32,000 jobs [5] Company Earnings and Forecasts - AMD reported a 36% year-over-year revenue increase to $9.25 billion, exceeding market expectations, but the outlook for Q4 revenue of $9.3 to $9.9 billion was met with some disappointment [7][8] - Supermicro's Q1 revenue fell to $5.02 billion, below analyst expectations, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of underperformance [8] - Pinterest's Q3 revenue was $1.05 billion, meeting expectations, but the Q4 guidance of $1.31 to $1.34 billion was below analyst forecasts, leading to an 18% pre-market drop [9] - Toyota's Q2 operating profit declined by 27% year-over-year, but the company raised its full-year profit and sales guidance [10] - Novo Nordisk's Q3 sales increased by 11% year-over-year, but operating profit fell by 21% [11] - Rivian's Q3 revenue reached $1.56 billion, a 78% increase year-over-year, with a positive gross margin reported [12] - Arista Networks reported Q3 revenue of $2.31 billion, a 27% increase, and provided a positive outlook for Q4 [13] - Astera Labs saw a 104% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3, but its Q4 earnings guidance fell short of expectations [14] - Tempus AI's Q3 revenue grew by 84.7%, but net losses widened [15] - McDonald's Q3 same-store sales grew by 3.6%, exceeding expectations, although EPS fell short [16] Upcoming Events - Key economic data releases include the U.S. ADP employment change and ISM non-manufacturing PMI scheduled for later today [16]

在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出 更优质的内容 文|昕昕 前言 先聊聊大萧条时期罗斯福的"神操作"，简直是教科书级别的"收割术"，1933年美国人慌得一批，都觉得 纸币不靠谱，疯了似的排队去银行换黄金，那队伍长得能绕街区三圈。 结果罗斯福直接"掀桌子"，出台法案强制大家把黄金按20.67美元/盎司的低价上交，私藏金条还得蹲大 牢——这波操作把民众整懵了，手里的硬通货说收就收。 更绝的在后面，转年就把黄金官价抬到35美元/盎司，涨幅高达69%，合着先低价抄家，再高价抛售， 不到一年把美国人的家底收割一遍。 这时候大家才反应过来：原来"避险资产"也能变成吞钱的主儿，政策爸爸一出手，黄金脾气再硬也得认 栽。 到了70年代，黄金又演了出"利好变利空"的反转戏，1971年美元跟黄金脱钩，金价跟坐火箭似的蹿上 去。 大家都赌美国会放开私人持金禁令，从1973年底开始，金价从不到100美元飙到190多美元，跟现在盼着 美国降息就追黄金的逻辑一模一样。 别盯着眼下金价那点波动焦虑了，跟历史上几次"史诗级跳水"比，现在顶多算给投资者按了个摩。 都说黄金是避险神器，可过去一百年里 ...

Group 1 - Global stock markets are experiencing a sell-off triggered by fears of a technology stock valuation bubble, leading to a surge in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe haven [1][4] - DBS Bank predicts that if the stock market continues to decline, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond could drop to 3.8%, a significant decrease from the current level of approximately 4.07% [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Bloomberg Asia Chip Index collectively lost about $500 billion in market value, highlighting concerns over an AI-related investment bubble [4] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs executives have warned that stock prices may continue to fall, indicating potential for a new rally in the $73 trillion bond market [1] - Saxo Markets' chief investment strategist noted that the bond buying reflects a sell-off in AI themes, with funds moving towards safe assets as stock volatility increases [4] - Multiple factors, including a potential U.S. government shutdown, weak economic data, and liquidity issues, are contributing to sustained risk aversion in the market [4]

周三，全球股市遭遇抛售潮，市场避险情绪升温，推动债券价格走高。美国国债全期限品种均上涨，推 动基准10年期美债收益率跌至一周低点。此前，科技股估值高企引发的担忧已冲击全球股指。澳大利亚 和新西兰同期国债收益率同样下跌，日本同期国债收益率也小幅走低。 随着科技股高估值引发的担忧冲击全球股指，被誉为全球最安全资产的美国国债前景已成为市场关注焦 点。摩根士丹利的泰德·皮克、高盛集团的戴维·所罗门等华尔街高管均警告股市可能进一步下跌，策略 师们正思考规模达73万亿美元的债券市场是否有进一步上涨的空间。 星展银行(DBS Bank)认为，若股市继续下跌，美国10年期国债收益率可能从当前的约4.07%降至3.8%;道 明证券(TD Securities)则预测，到2026年末，该基准收益率将跌至3.50%。 分析师马克·克兰菲尔德写道，"宏观交易员正趁还能兑现时了结获利头寸，以弥补人工智能相关股票主 题快速退潮带来的损失，且这种情况可能还会持续。" 道明证券高级利率策略师普拉尚特·纽纳哈表示："企业高管对估值和资本支出的警告已引发关注。再加 上美国政府停摆、数据疲软以及流动性稀薄，这些因素共同构成了避险模式延续的条件—— ...

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3,980, with a recent price of $3,973.69 per ounce, reflecting a 1.08% increase, and has seen a high of $3,974.89 and a low of $3,929.01 [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has entered its sixth week, potentially becoming the longest fiscal deadlock in U.S. history, which is driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Geopolitical tensions are also providing support for gold's safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2 - Gold prices are facing dual resistance from a strengthening U.S. dollar and a slowing expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate at 3.75%-4.0% during the October meeting, with Chairman Powell indicating that further rate cuts this year are "not a certainty" [2] - The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped from 93% to approximately 70%, according to CME FedWatch [2] Group 3 - Technically, gold maintains a bullish structure, trading above the 100-day exponential moving average, but short-term momentum appears neutral, suggesting potential consolidation [3] - Key resistance is noted at the psychological level of $4,000, with further targets at $4,046 and $4,150 if breached [3] - Short-term support is identified at $3,835, with a potential drop to $3,722 if this level is broken [3] - The current market dynamics reflect a balance of safe-haven support from geopolitical risks and the U.S. government shutdown, countered by the strong dollar and tempered Fed rate cut expectations, leading to a likely short-term consolidation phase for gold [3]

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading above $47.52, with a recent opening at $47.17 and a current price of $47.64, reflecting a 1.08% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was $47.68, while the lowest was $46.86, indicating a short-term bullish trend for silver [1] Group 2 - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, suggest a more hawkish stance, indicating that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December are approximately 65%, which has strengthened the dollar and limited the gains of non-yielding assets like silver [3] - The ongoing budget impasse in Washington has led to a government shutdown that has lasted six weeks, potentially delaying key economic indicators and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty [3] Group 3 - Investors are closely monitoring geopolitical tensions and trade issues, which have sustained demand for safe-haven assets [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced plans to establish arms export and joint production offices in Berlin and Copenhagen to raise funds for domestic weapon production [3] - Silver prices may attempt to rebound around the $47 mark, with potential for a strong rally if it stabilizes above $48, targeting a high of $49.5 [3]

美国10月份制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）显示，美国制造业活动有所放缓，PMI从9月的49.1降至 48.7，低于市场预期的49.5。尽管这一数据给美元带来一定压力，但美国政府停摆所带来的不确定性为 避险资产提供了部分支撑。投资者目前聚焦即将发布的10月ADP就业数据，若数据疲软，可能为黄金提 供短期支撑。 美元强势与美联储政策：市场普遍预期美联储将在12月维持利率不变，这将继续支撑美元走强，从而限 制黄金上涨的空间。投资者应密切关注美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员的讲话，寻找关于未来货 币政策的更多线索。 在周二亚洲交易时段，黄金价格再度跌破4000美元，未能延续前期的反弹。美联储主席鲍威尔近期的讲 话中重申，今年是否再次降息"不确定"，市场对降息预期大幅下降，这助推美元进一步走强。随着美元 走高，黄金的吸引力受到压制，特别是在美联储的鹰派态度下，黄金价格难以突破上行阻力。 中国的增值税政策调整进一步削弱了黄金的短期需求，尤其是零售市场的影响尤为明显。该政策实施 后，国内黄金交易活动受限，多个国有银行暂停黄金兑换与开户，令市场情绪变得更加谨慎。这一政策 对全球最大实物黄金买家之一的中国短期需求造成压力， ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced fluctuations and declined, while platinum prices followed gold prices downward. The U.S. stock market faced significant sell-offs, with all three major indices closing lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recorded their largest single-day declines since October 10, indicating growing concerns over high valuations. Investors are increasingly worried about overvalued stocks, leading to profit-taking despite some companies reporting good earnings that did not meet "outstanding" expectations. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon previously warned of a significant market correction risk within the next six months to two years. The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown for 35 days, matching a historical record, which has resulted in a lack of official economic data, making the market more reliant on private sector employment reports like ADP [1][3]. Currency Market Dynamics - The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown has resulted in the inability to release key official economic data, prompting investors to focus on the upcoming ADP employment report for economic insights. Additionally, there is a divergence of opinions among Federal Reserve officials on how to address the current data gap. The U.S. dollar index has surpassed the 100 mark for the first time since early August. The euro has depreciated against the dollar for the fifth consecutive day, reaching a low of 1.1483, the weakest level since August 1. Despite the strength of other safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc, the dollar has slightly declined against the yen to 153.60, while the yen remains near an eight-and-a-half-month low. Market strategists note that despite frequent discussions about the "decline of the dollar," it remains a reliable safe-haven asset during market turmoil. The shift in market sentiment towards safe-haven assets corresponds with the stock market decline and increased demand for government bonds. Commodity currencies like the Australian dollar have come under pressure, dropping 0.8% to 0.649 due to the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining interest rates and expressing caution towards further easing. The shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations is a key driver of the dollar's strength, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from 94% to 65% following last week's expected rate cut. The ongoing government shutdown has led to a lack of economic data, making the differing views among Federal Reserve officials on the economic situation a focal point for the market. Despite the recent strong performance of the dollar, the dollar index is currently in a fluctuating rebound trend [3].

11月的金融市场刚拉开帷幕，就被多重重磅消息搅动得波澜四起。 一边是中国基金圈痛失领军人物，泉果基金创始人王国斌的突然离世让行业陷入肃穆。 另一边是全球宏观环境变数增多，美联储12月降息预期延后压制风险资产，叠加美国政府停摆、香港经济回暖等跨境动态，市场正面临复杂的多空博弈。 对于投资者而言，年底前的资产配置逻辑该如何调整？黄金的避险价值是否依然坚挺？能否成为当前市场环境下的破局方向？ 这些核心问题，都值得小卞和大家一起深入思考。 11月3日，泉果基金官网转为黑白配色的消息，迅速在金融圈引发震动。 随后公司发布的《高级管理人员变更公告》确认，总经理王国斌因"病逝"离任，任职截止日期正是当日。 这位年仅57岁的投资大佬，带着27年证券从业经验和237亿基金管理规模，突然告别了他深耕多年的资本市场。 作为中国资本市场的先驱者，王国斌的从业履历堪称行业标杆。 他毕业于北京大学，先后在万国证券、中金等机构积累经验，2010年一手打造东方红资产管理，成为国内首家券商系资管公司并拿下首张券商资管公募牌 照。 与国内行业震荡形成呼应的是，全球宏观经济正迎来多重关键变量，直接影响年底前的市场情绪与资产定价。 美国政府停摆已创 ...