Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern due to the enhanced domestic macro - atmosphere and better - than - expected new car production and sales data in the first half of the year, despite the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 is likely to maintain a volatile consolidation trend as the steadily rising domestic coal futures prices compete with the weak methanol supply - demand structure [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend as the negative impact of production increases is digested, and the further expansion of production by oil - producing countries is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a 0.05% increase. The bonded area inventory decreased by 2.36%, while the general trade inventory increased by 0.40%. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79% as of July 10, a 1.66 - percentage - point increase, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a 0.42 - percentage - point decrease. In June 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.6%, down 5.7 percentage points year - on - year. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the domestic methanol average operating rate was 72.09%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 13.11%. The weekly methanol production was 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,100 tons. The inventories in East and South China ports increased significantly week - on - week [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of June 27, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 432, a week - on - week decrease of 7. As of the week of July 4, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 7.07 million barrels week - on - week. The WTI crude oil futures market net long positions decreased significantly week - on - week, while the Brent crude oil futures market net long positions increased significantly [12][13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,350 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 14,360 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | -10 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,407 yuan/ton | -20 yuan/ton | 2,396 yuan/ton | +26 yuan/ton | 11 yuan/ton | -26 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 482.7 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 513.0 yuan/barrel | +8.8 yuan/barrel | -30.3 yuan/barrel | -8.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: There is a chart of rubber basis [16]. - **Methanol**: Charts related to methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting are mentioned [29][31][33]. - **Crude Oil**: Charts related to crude oil basis, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change are mentioned [41][43][49].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原木周报（LG)】 原木09合约偏空看待 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-07-14 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原木：原木期货价格震荡运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 截止到6月29日，6月从新西兰出发的船只总共有38条，其中有30条去往中国大陆，8条去往中国台湾、韩国减载。6月出发的船只中，预计 6月到港的约为10条，7月到港的有28条。预计6月到货151万方。 | | | 需求 | 偏空 | 6月30日-7月6日，中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为6.69万方，较上周增加1.83%;其中，山东港口针叶原木日均出库量为3.9万方，较上周 增加9.86%;江苏港口针叶原木日均出库量为2.15万方，较上周减少3.15%。 | | | 库存 | 中性偏空 | 截至7月4日，国内针 ...

| 甲醇日评20250714: 港口逐步累库,单边驱动有限 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/7/11 | 2025/7/10 | 变化值 (絕对值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2443.00 | 2463.00 | -20.00 | -0.81% | | MA05 甲醇期货价格 | 元/吨 | 2371.00 | 2380.00 | -9.00 | -0.38% | | (收盘价) MA09 | 元/吨 | 2370.00 | 2398.00 | -28.00 | -1.17% | | 太せ | 元/吨 | 2367.50 | 2390.00 | -22.50 | -0.94% | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2250.00 | 2255.00 | -5.00 | -0.22% | | 广东 期现价格 | 元/吨 | 2390.00 | 2412.50 | -22.50 | -0.93% | | 申醇观货价格 及其差 陕西 (日度均价) | 元/吨 | 2055.00 | 204 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年7月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万吨，环比增幅3.5%,同 比增幅12.7%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.9166%，环比增加0.779个百分点，全国 样本企业出货26.12万吨，环比增加10.91%,样本企业产量为56.6万吨，环比增加2.35%,样本企 业装置检修量预估为58.2万吨，环比减少2.51%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将 增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为32.7%，环比增加0.03个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Unilateral not to chase short, positive spread arbitrage for monthly spreads. Pay attention to the compression position of forward PXN. The supply and demand of PX are relatively stable, with the Asian PX operating rate at 73.6% (-0.5%). The supply and demand of PX in July are still tight, and the monthly spread is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the compression position of far - month PXN [5]. - PTA: Unilateral not to chase short, positive spread arbitrage for monthly spreads. Go long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract, and go long on PR and short on PTA. The supply of PTA increases while the demand decreases, and the polyester operating rate drops. Although there is supply pressure, the downside space of the unilateral price is limited due to the low raw material inventory of polyester factories, and the processing fee is still under downward pressure [6]. - MEG: Unilateral oscillatory market, positive spread arbitrage for monthly spreads. The supply of MEG increases while the demand decreases, but the inventory is at a low level, and the coal price rebounds, so the MEG price rebounds. In the case of limited import increase, go for positive spread arbitrage for ethylene glycol monthly spreads when the price is low [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: A 210,000 - ton PX unit in a Japanese factory stopped due to a reforming unit failure, initially expected to last about 20 days. Another 210,000 - ton/year PX production line of Idemitsu in Japan stopped on July 11 due to technical problems, and the exact time for repair and restart is unknown until next week. The Asian PX price further declined during the closing assessment, with the trading price of September short - haul cargo between Glencore and Hengli at $834/ton [3][5]. Futures Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6694 | 4700 | 4305 | 6388 | 513.9 | | Change | 6782 | -42 | -20 | -52 | -8.6 | | Change Rate | -88 | -0.89% | -0.46% | -0.81% | -1.65% | | Monthly Spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF8 - 9 | SC8 - 9 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 74 | 38 | -26 | 120 | 9.7 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 64 | 12 | -33 | 102 | 10.2 | | Change | 10 | 26 | 7 | 18 | -0.5 | [2] Spot Data | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Price | 836.67 | 4715 | 4383 | 584.25 | 72.63 | | Previous Day's Price | 851.67 | 4735 | 4386 | 591 | 70.58 | | Change | -15 | -20 | -3 | -6.75 | 2.04 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 256.67 | 158.43 | 304.31 | -410.69 | -7.42 | | Previous Day's Price | 251.42 | 165.64 | 301.29 | -453.71 | -7.42 | | Change | 5.25 | -7.21 | 3.02 | 43.02 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 1 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2 (integers). The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The upstream supply of soda ash is at a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1217 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1200 yuan/ton, and the main basis was - 17 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1.14%, the low - end price in Shahe increased by 0.50%, and the main basis decreased by 54.05% compared with the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe market was 1200 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 134.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process was - 113.50 yuan/ton. The production profit was at the lowest level in the same period in history [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output was 70.89 tons, including 40.01 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The planned new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025 (with an actual production of 100 tons) [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 92.40% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.84 tons, and the operating rate was 75.68%, showing a stable recovery [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to decline. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry cut production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 186.34 tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, and other indicators of soda ash over the years, as well as the corresponding supply - demand differences and growth rates [35]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The rebound of the downstream glass market boosted the sentiment of the soda ash market [3]. - Negative factors: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, the improvement of terminal demand was limited, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry had not been effectively improved [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 乐观情绪主导，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 乐观情绪未退，矿价高位运行，但铁矿石供需格局并无改善，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗 延续下行，相对利好则是钢厂盈利状况尚可，减量空间有限。同时，港口到货低位回升，而矿商发运 大幅减量，海外矿石供应明显收缩，相应的内矿生产同样趋弱，供应短期收缩。目前来看，政策利好 预期 ...

商 品 研 究 豆粕：USDA 报告偏空&天气良好，或偏弱震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面仍震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 2025 年 07 月 14 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4101 -9 | （-0.22%） | 4110 | +12 （+0.29%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2976 | +33（+1.12%） | 2975 | +4（+0.13%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1007.5 | -6.25（-0.62%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 284 | -1.3（-0.46%） | | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2850～2890， 较昨+20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - For corn, the international corn price has an advantage due to the good initial growth condition in the US. In the domestic market, the cooling of imported corn auction transactions, strong selling intention of grain holders, increasing feed substitution of wheat, and weakening feed demand have led to a decline in corn prices. The corn futures price continued to fall this week, showing overall weakness [8]. - For corn starch, although the production loss of corn starch enterprises has reduced the supply pressure, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and the inventory has increased. Affected by the decline of corn prices, the starch futures price has also shown a weak oscillation recently [12]. - The strategy for both corn and corn starch is to focus on short - term trading [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary Corn - **Market Review**: The corn futures price fluctuated and declined this week. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The excellent rate of US corn is high, and the international corn price has an advantage. In the domestic market, the cooling of auction transactions, increased market supply, and substitution of wheat have led to weakening prices [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - term trading [7]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The Dalian corn starch futures price fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2656 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The production loss has reduced the supply pressure, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. Affected by the decline of corn prices, the starch price has shown a weak oscillation [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - term trading [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The corn futures September contract continued to decline, with a total position of 1030900 lots, an increase of 85554 lots compared with the previous week. The corn starch futures September contract also declined, with a total position of 247864 lots, an increase of 69516 lots compared with the previous week [18]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 30902, and the net short position decreased compared with the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 9506, and the net short position also decreased [24]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn was 196479, and that of corn starch was 21979 [30]. Spot Price and Basis - As of July 10, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2426.86 yuan/ton, and the basis between the September futures price and the spot price was + 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, with a slightly decreasing trend. The basis between the September futures price and the Jilin spot price was 194 yuan/ton [35][39]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 75 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 44 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [45]. Futures Spread - The spread between the September contracts of starch and corn was 350 yuan/ton. In the 28th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [53]. Substitute Spread - As of July 10, 2025, the spread between wheat and corn was 18.64 yuan/ton. In the 28th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 139 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [58]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 88.6 tons, a decrease of 15.5 tons compared with the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 1.3 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared with the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 259.6 tons, a decrease of 12.8 tons compared with the previous week, and the shipping volume was 41.8 tons, an increase of 16.6 tons compared with the previous week [49]. - **Monthly Import**: In May 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 190,000 tons, a decrease of 860,000 tons (81.9%) compared with the same period last year and an increase of 10,000 tons compared with the previous month [67]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 10, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.58 days, a decrease of 0.38 days compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.38% [71]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. At the end of May, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [75]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of July 4, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 119.72 yuan/head, and that of purchased piglets was - 26.26 yuan/head [79]. - **Processing Profit**: As of July 11, 2025, the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 66 yuan/ton. The processing profit of corn alcohol in Henan was - 585 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 399 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 85 yuan/ton [84]. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.436 million tons, an increase of 1.88% [88]. - **Starch Production and Inventory**: From July 3 to July 9, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 536,700 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons compared with the previous week; the national corn starch production was 259,400 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared with the previous week; the weekly operation rate was 50.14%, a decrease of 1.06% compared with the previous week. As of July 9, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.337 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared with the previous week, a weekly increase of 1.83%, a monthly increase of 2.14%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.97% [92]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of July 11, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 7.67%, a decrease of 1.05% compared with 8.72% in the previous week. The implied volatility continued to decline this week and was at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95].

行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 11 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员 ...