Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The inflation narrative trend remains unchanged, and future price recovery paths depend on supply - side policy directions [2] - There is a certain divergence in domestic and overseas economic outlooks. Overseas economic prosperity has declined since October, while China's exports and new orders are still positive [4] - In the short - term, attention should be paid to the rotation possibility of low - valuation sectors in the commodity market [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and anti - "involution" competition, and the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points on January 15th [2] - The Ministry of Finance released 5 important policy documents on January 20th to support multiple loan fields, aiming to expand domestic demand [2] - Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Venezuela have tightened, and Trump's actions have strained US - European relations, accelerating the global de - dollarization trend [2] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) adjusted the margin parameters of some silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts on the 27th [2] - On January 28th, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with two members opposing and preferring a 25 - point rate cut [3] - After the Fed's decision, the US dollar index rose and spot gold reached $5500 per ounce [3] - The US Treasury Secretary said that Trump's candidate for Fed Chairman may be announced in about a week [3] Domestic and Overseas Economic Conditions - Since October, overseas economic prosperity has declined, but China's exports and new orders are positive. In December, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% [4] - China's GDP growth target of 5% in 2025 was achieved. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 0.9%, and the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2%. The annual fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% [4] - China's official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, returning to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2, both better than expected. The US ISM manufacturing index in December dropped slightly to 47.9, and the European manufacturing PMI in January slightly exceeded expectations [4] - The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, with one member supporting a rate increase. The US Treasury Secretary affirmed the strong - dollar policy and denied intervention in the yen exchange rate [4] Commodity Market - In the non - ferrous sector, the long - term supply restriction has not been alleviated, but the short - term upward trend may slow down [5] - In the energy sector, the US will "distribute" Venezuelan oil, Trump hopes to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel, and the US Energy Secretary called for doubling global crude oil production [5] - In the chemical industry sector, the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage space of methanol, PTA and other varieties are worthy of attention [5] - In the agricultural products sector, attention should be paid to weather forecasts and short - term pig diseases [5] - In the black metal sector, attention should be paid to domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [5] - In the precious metals sector, the accelerating de - dollarization trend has opened up room for the rise of gold [5] Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral [6] Important News - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin level and price limit ratio of the silver deferred contract on January 30th [7] - Trump downplayed the risk of US dollar depreciation, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate broke through 1.20 [7] - On January 28th, Iran expressed its willingness to negotiate but would defend its interests if pressured. Trump sent a fleet to Iran and threatened more severe strikes [7] - Iran's Supreme Leader's defense advisor warned that any US military action would lead to an immediate, comprehensive and unprecedented response from Iran [7] - The Fed's FOMC interest rate decision was in line with expectations, and Fed Chairman Powell suggested that the next Fed Chairman should be separated from politics [7] - US Treasury Secretary Besent discussed multiple topics, including the Fed Chairman candidate, monetary policy, exchange rate and the S&P 500 index breakthrough [7]

2 2019 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0013700 | | | 2026/1/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2026/1/28 | 5264. 93 | 114. 87 | 5258.00 | 114. 88 | 1189.88 | 29031.00 | 1180. 50 | 29300.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | ...

截至2026年1月29日 13:19，黄金ETF博时(159937)上涨5.63%，冲击5连涨。最新价报11.89元。拉长时间看，截至2026年1月28日，黄金ETF博时近1周累计上 涨8.62%。 流动性方面，黄金ETF博时盘中换手4.39%，成交25.17亿元。拉长时间看，截至1月28日，黄金ETF博时近1周日均成交21.80亿元。 消息面上，全球地缘政治局势的不确定性成为金价短期暴涨的直接推手。地区冲突、贸易摩擦多点爆发，加剧了市场恐慌情绪。投资者对风险资产偏好下 降，黄金作为传统避险资产，成为资金涌入的"避风港"，推动买盘大幅增加。世界黄金协会明确指出，黄金已成为当前市场首选的避险资产，避险溢价持续 支撑金价走高。 业内专家表示，"去美元化"浪潮下黄金多头格局已定。联准会近期卷入相关司法调查的消息，进一步加剧了金融市场的动荡。在美元预期维持弱势的背景 下，资金流向黄金的趋势短期内难以逆转。长期来看，全球央行对黄金储备的多元化配置，为金价提供了坚实的支撑底部。 国泰海通证券分析指出，在供需紧平衡格局下，宏观因素对贵金属价格走势更具决定性影响；2026年美联储降息预期延续、区域博弈加剧及美元信用弱化趋 势 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices have surpassed $5,600, with spot gold exceeding $5,500, marking a historical high for nine consecutive days [1] - The launch of the only gold mining ETF in Hong Kong, E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK), is set for January 30, providing investors with a tool to invest in leading global gold mining companies [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman indicated that inflation is primarily driven by tariffs rather than demand factors, leading to a rapid increase in spot gold prices after the announcement [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights that gold prices have been reaching historical highs since 2025, influenced by factors such as de-dollarization, Federal Reserve independence, central bank gold purchases, U.S. tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation expectations [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, the allocation of gold as an alternative currency is expected to rise due to the restructuring of the global financial order and ongoing volatility in financial markets [2] - E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK) focuses on the four major gold production regions and selects 30 leading gold mining stocks, including significant holdings in Zijin Mining and Zhaojin Mining, while also covering major overseas companies like Newmont and Barrick Gold [2]

Group 1: Forex Market Overview - The forex market transaction volume steadily increased in 2025, with a total turnover of 48.52 trillion USD and an average daily turnover of 199.66 billion USD, marking a historical high and a year-on-year growth of 6.54% [2] - The average daily turnover in the RMB forex market reached 148.75 billion USD, with significant growth in trading volumes for foreign currencies and foreign currency interest rate markets, increasing by 27.58% and 17.28% year-on-year, respectively [2] Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB to USD exchange rate experienced fluctuations, ultimately strengthening, with the year-end rate at 6.9890, appreciating by 4.43% compared to the previous year, while the CFETS RMB exchange rate index ended at 97.99, down 3.43% for the year [3][5] - The RMB exchange rate faced pressure in April due to heightened trade tensions and tariffs, but rebounded later in the year as trade negotiations eased and domestic economic policies improved, leading to a significant appreciation of over 1,000 basis points by year-end [4][5] Group 3: Swap Curve and Interest Rate Dynamics - The swap curve for RMB significantly rose, with the 1Y swap point reaching a new high, influenced by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US, which correlated highly with the 10-year US Treasury yield [6][7] - The 1Y swap point deviated from the interest rate parity theory, showing a positive correlation with the appreciation expectations of the RMB, with the average deviation being approximately 49 basis points, marking the first positive deviation since 2023 [7] Group 4: Offshore RMB Liquidity and Market Structure - Offshore RMB liquidity remained tight, with the People's Bank of China issuing a record 300 billion RMB in offshore central bank bills, maintaining a stable yet slightly tight liquidity environment [8] - The interest rate market for foreign currencies showed overall easing, with the domestic USD borrowing rates remaining low, while the spread between domestic and foreign rates widened, reaching a three-year low of -40 basis points by year-end [9]

Jul-08 the first and the first the first to the state of th （本文作者付一夫为苏商银行特约研究员） 近期，国际黄金价格接连突破历史关口，国内现货金价同步走高，现货黄金甚至突破5500美元/盎司，而资本市场上黄金股更是连续暴涨，这也引发了各方 人士的高度关注。 长期以来，黄金定价遵循着以"实际利率"为核心的经典范式。然而近年来，金价走势却与传统框架背道而驰：美联储开启激进加息周期，实际利率大幅转 正，美元一度走强，按传统逻辑应严重压制金价；然而黄金仅在初期短暂承压后，便逆势上行且屡创新高。这种背离，标志着市场对黄金定价逻辑的深刻转 变。 事实上，黄金作为一种无利息、无主权信用背书的实物资产，其价格持续强势上涨的背后，实则是全球金融市场对宏观环境不确定性的集中定价——所 谓"盛世古董，乱世黄金"，在当前全球格局下，"做多黄金"已与"做多不确定性"形成精准呼应；而每一轮的金价攀升，很可能都是市场对地缘冲突、货币信 用、财政可持续性及资产定价体系等领域风险的集体预警。 一、地缘局势风险：短期脉冲与长期叙事 黄金的避险属性，是其穿越千年经济周期、成为全球公认安 ...

首先，黄金作为传统价值存储工具，在当前国际环境不确定性依然较大的背景下，具备较好支撑。 在建信基金28日举办的策略会上，建信上海金ETF基金经理朱金钰分享了对黄金后市行情的观点，他认 为结合黄金资产多重属性看，其长期支撑依然坚实，继续看好黄金的趋势性行情及配置价值。 此外，从资产配置角度出发，大类资产配置的核心价值体现在各类资产间的低相关性，黄金与股票、债 券等其他传统资产类别的相关性较低，有望分散组合风险、改善收益风险比。 其次，从黄金的金融属性看，金价紧跟美国实际利率，二者呈现较为显著的负相关关系。当前，美联储 已开启降息周期，叠加中长期美国经济压力上行，有利于黄金表现。数据显示，在过去六轮美联储降息 周期中，伦敦金现价平均涨幅为24.55%。 2026年开年以来，黄金价格不断走强，持续刷新历史新高。数据显示，截至2026年1月27日，海外伦敦 金现价、国内上海金价突破5000美元/盎司、1100元/克，自2025年以来累计涨幅分别达到97.41%、 85.61%。 再者，从黄金的货币属性看，黄金是全球央行储备资产中不可或缺的部分。近年来美债利率持续高企， 美元信用受损，"去美元化"进程加快，全球央行持续 ...

近年来，在资产价格轮动、产品结构转型、居民财富管理需求提升的多重推动下，公募基金行业正迎来 深刻变革。在建信基金28日举办的策略会上，建信基金FOF投资及投顾负责人孙悦萌分享了2026年FOF 投资思路，她认为公募FOF凭借其多元配置、风险分散的独特优势，逐渐成为投资者资产配置的重要工 具之一。 建设银行于2026年初推出龙盈计划，通过定制化FOF的形式，为投资者提供一站式全流程资产配置服 务。目前，建信基金已在龙盈计划上线中波方案建信福泽安泰FOF和低波方案建信泓泰多元配置3个月 持有FOF。 针对以上FOF产品，建信基金FOF团队通过宏观大类资产配置、中观风格行业轮动、微观基金精选、绝 对收益策略四层筛选，在债券为主的基础上，精选A股中证红利、美股标普500和黄金三类资产力争增 强组合收益，致力于为广大投资者提供更加普适的资产配置解决方案。 孙悦萌认为，增长分化、政策调整与信用重构或是全球宏观环境的主旋律。在此背景下，美股的表现可 能转向由盈利驱动，行情或由少数AI巨头驱动转向普涨，标普500正是盈利驱动的重要配置之一。其 次，黄金是信用重构时代的"战略资产"，当前全球去美元化进程加速，各国央行持续购金以 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the copper market and its dynamics in relation to macroeconomic factors and technological advancements, particularly the impact of the AI revolution on copper demand [2][4][7]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Copper Price and Macroeconomic Correlation** - Traditionally, copper prices have shown a positive correlation with macroeconomic conditions, but this relationship has diverged since 2023, indicating that new factors, such as the AI technology revolution, are significantly influencing copper demand [2][4]. 2. **Emerging Markets and Currency Correlation** - The positive correlation between emerging market currencies and copper prices has been disrupted since 2020, primarily due to developed countries employing fiscal and monetary policies (MMT) to extend economic growth, which has increased copper demand in these regions [2][5][6]. 3. **AI Era and Electricity Demand** - The AI era is driving a surge in electricity demand, with significant copper usage in electrical equipment construction, positioning copper as the "oil of the AI era" [2][7]. 4. **Investment in Electrical Infrastructure** - Developed and developing countries are simultaneously advancing electrification efforts. For instance, China plans to increase its grid investment by 40% during its "15th Five-Year Plan," totaling approximately 4 trillion RMB [2][8]. 5. **Basic Metals Demand from AI Supply Chain** - The entire AI supply chain requires substantial amounts of basic metals, including aluminum and copper, for data centers, chip manufacturing, and electrical infrastructure [2][9]. 6. **Global Economic Trends and Inequality** - The K-shaped recovery in the global economy is exacerbating wealth inequality, with a notable increase in the wealth concentration among the top 1% in the U.S., which could lead to rising geopolitical risks and populism [2][10]. 7. **Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on Copper Prices** - Developed countries' fiscal and monetary policies have prevented economic downturns, thereby boosting demand for basic metals, including copper. For example, despite a significant price drop in 2023 due to U.S. interest rate hikes, copper prices rebounded following the introduction of multiple fiscal measures [2][11]. 8. **Global Monetary Order and Copper Prices** - The erosion of fiscal discipline is initiating a new global monetary order (Bretton Woods 3.0), challenging the dollar's status as an endogenous currency and accelerating de-dollarization, which is driving up prices of commodities like gold and copper [2][12]. 9. **Geopolitical Risks and Strategic Reserves** - Increasing geopolitical risks are prompting countries to bolster their strategic reserves, with significant growth in imports of copper and rare earths, indicating strong future demand in technology and metals sectors [2][13]. 10. **Resource Nationalism and Supply Constraints** - Resource nationalism is slowing the release of supply, intensifying the supply-demand imbalance in the copper market. Countries like Peru are implementing measures that could restrict copper exports, potentially leading to higher prices [2][14]. 11. **Future Expectations for Copper Market** - The confluence of the AI revolution and significant global changes is expected to usher in a new super cycle for copper. The current price levels, while high, are not yet at the peaks of previous cycles when adjusted for inflation, suggesting a potential increase of around 20% in copper prices within the year [2][15][16]. Additional Important Insights - The discussion highlights the critical role of copper in the context of technological advancements and economic policies, emphasizing its dual nature as both a commodity and a financial asset in the evolving global landscape [2][15].

1月29日(周四)，美元指数在美联储利率决议及美国财长表态双重驱动下强势反弹，终结此前连续走弱 态势。亚洲早盘维持窄幅震荡，美联储暂停降息决议落地及强美元政策重申后，美元指数快速拉升突破 关键阻力，非美货币普遍承压回调，市场焦点转向后续经济数据及美联储主席人选进展。 此外，地缘与政策不确定性间接利好美元。特朗普警告将对伊朗实施更严重袭击，地缘风险升温推升避 险情绪，资金涌入美元资产；美联储主席人选竞争加剧，候选人政策倾向分歧明显，市场对政策稳定性 的担忧进一步促使短期资金转向美元避险。 技术面看，美元指数短期反弹动能充足，震荡偏强格局明确。日线级别突破前期震荡上沿，MACD零轴 下柱体收缩转正、DIFF逼近DEA有金叉预期，RSI升至55附近偏向强势；4小时图形成上升通道，布林 带中轨96.30为关键支撑，上轨96.80为短期阻力，突破后可看向97.00-97.20区间。 当日美元指数开盘报96.226，亚洲时段受观望情绪主导，在96.20-96.30区间窄幅整理、交投谨慎。北京 时间凌晨美联储议息会议结果公布后，美元指数应声拉升，日内最高触及96.787(阶段性高点)，随后小 幅回落但强势不改。截至发稿，美 ...