·特朗普提名沃什执掌美联储 ·美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%~3.75%不变 ·加拿大央行维持2.25%基准利率不变 ·巴西央行维持基准利率在15%不变 ·韩元过度贬值引警报央行呼吁加强外汇对冲 ·阿联酋央行批准全球首个央行监管稳定币 【全球央行动态】 ·特朗普正式提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔出任下任美联储主席。该提名需参议院批准，但民 主党领袖舒默与共和党参议员蒂利斯已明确表示，除非撤销对鲍威尔的调查，否则将联手阻止沃什上 任。 ·美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%~3.75%不变，结束自去年9月以来的连续三次降息。尽管符合市场预 期，但政策声明透露出内部意见分化：理事米兰和沃勒投下反对票，主张降息25个基点。 ·新加坡金管局称，政策区间宽度及其中心水平保持不变。 ·香港金管局将基准利率维持在4.0%不变，称美国未来息率走向仍存在不确定性，对香港的利率环境亦 会有所影响。 ·加纳央行将关键利率下调250个基点至15.50%。加纳央行行长称，加纳央行已出售部分黄金储备以获取 外汇。 ·乌拉圭央行降息100个基点至6.50%。 ·韩国央行行长李昌镛警告，韩元贬值已远超合理区间，恐推高通胀压力。他敦促国民 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to significantly impact monetary policy, leading to a stronger dollar and increased bond yields, while causing a sharp decline in precious metal prices [2][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Warsh's nomination, the dollar index surged from approximately 96.1 to around 97.2, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 5 basis points to over 4.27%, briefly exceeding 4.28% [2]. - Gold prices fell sharply, retreating 9.13% after reaching over $5,500 per ounce at the end of January [5]. - Silver prices experienced a cumulative decline of 26.20% over three days [7]. Group 2: Kevin Warsh's Background and Policy Stance - Warsh is not a new face at the Federal Reserve, having served as a governor from 2006 to 2011 and being a vocal critic of the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) during the 2008 financial crisis [8]. - He has criticized the Fed's balance sheet expansion and proposed reforms aimed at returning to a more disciplined monetary policy framework [9][20]. Group 3: Implications of Warsh's Policies - Warsh advocates for "balance sheet reduction in exchange for interest rate cuts," aiming to control inflation while supporting short-term economic growth and asset prices [9]. - His hawkish stance is expected to strengthen the dollar, as the Fed may prioritize balance sheet management over merely lowering interest rates, increasing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [14]. - The anticipated reduction in the Fed's balance sheet could tighten offshore dollar liquidity, raising global financing costs and impacting emerging markets reliant on dollar funding [15][18]. Group 4: Factors Behind Precious Metal Price Declines - The decline in precious metal prices is attributed to multiple factors, including speculative long positions being liquidated and a high concentration of leveraged positions that triggered a domino effect of forced selling [10][12]. - The strong dollar, driven by Warsh's nomination, exerts downward pressure on commodities priced in dollars, including gold and silver [14]. - Increased margin requirements for gold and silver futures by institutions like the CME have forced high-leverage positions to close, exacerbating liquidity issues and price volatility [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - In the short term, gold and silver may continue to face selling pressure as the market adjusts to the new environment of tightening dollar liquidity [17]. - Warsh's potential policy implementation could lead to a more structured and predictable monetary policy, enhancing the credibility and effectiveness of the Fed in the long run [17][20]. - However, the transition may involve significant short-term challenges, particularly for emerging markets that depend on offshore dollar liquidity, which could face capital outflows and increased financing costs [18][19].

Market Overview - The market sentiment has rapidly shifted, leading to significant declines in precious metals, with silver, palladium, platinum, and tin futures hitting their daily limit down, and gold dropping by 11.68% [1] - All base metals also experienced declines, alongside various sectors including energy, black metals, chemicals, and shipping [1] Precious Metals Performance - On February 2, platinum and palladium futures both hit their daily limit down, closing at 552.15 CNY/gram and 413.70 CNY/gram respectively [4] - The silver futures contract (Ag2604) fell by 17.00% to 24,832 CNY, while gold futures (au2604) dropped by 16.00% to 1,005.40 CNY [2] Market Influences - The recent downturn in precious and base metals is attributed to multiple factors, including macroeconomic expectations and tightening liquidity [5] - The nomination of Jerome Powell's successor, with expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, has led to a temporary tightening of dollar liquidity, impacting market sentiment [3] - Concerns regarding the U.S. fiscal situation and the independence of the Federal Reserve have not altered the trend of central banks purchasing gold and the "de-dollarization" movement [3] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current market volatility is driven by macroeconomic sentiment, the underlying fundamentals for platinum and palladium remain stable [6][7] - The demand for platinum is expected to grow due to its diverse consumption structure, while palladium's demand is primarily tied to automotive catalysts, which may limit its growth potential [7] - The outlook for platinum and palladium futures indicates continued high volatility, with price movements likely influenced by gold and silver market sentiments [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 恐慌性抛售席卷贵金属市场，金银暴跌 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-2-02 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周贵金属价格波动剧烈，先扬后抑，全线崩盘。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）上半周，在避 险需求强劲和美元走弱等因素的提振下，贵金属价格加速冲高，伦敦现货黄金逼近5600美元/盎 司，伦敦现货白银突破121美元/盎司关口。一方面，美国对伊朗极限施压，市场愈发担忧美国 对伊朗"动武"，地缘避险持续升温，驱动贵金属价格大幅上涨；另一方面，市场对美日联合干 预汇市的预期和特朗普对美元贬值的表态令美元指数一度大幅走弱至95.5附近，进一步利好贵金 属价格。（2）下半周，在金银多头头寸极度拥挤背景下，因美股流动性收紧的触发，贵金属市 场开始出现获利了结压力。随后周五亚盘外媒报道称特朗普政府将提名前理事凯文·沃什出任新 美联储主席，这一消息在昨日晚间得到特朗普确认。因沃什 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant volatility in gold prices, with a notable drop of 9.25% on January 30, reaching $4,880.3 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline in 40 years. This decline is attributed to the nomination of Kevin Warsh, a hawkish candidate, as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which raised expectations for a stronger dollar and triggered profit-taking among bullish investors [1][2] - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) shows a decline in major stocks, with Xiaocheng Technology leading at a drop of 19.88%, followed by Shandong Gold at 12.07% and Chifeng Gold at 11.58%. The index reflects the performance of 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [1][2] - The gold stock ETF fund (159322) has seen a recent trading volume of 547.26 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.69%. Over the past week, the average daily trading volume reached 1.08 billion yuan, indicating a strong interest in gold stocks despite recent price fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The recent surge and subsequent drop in gold prices have deviated from traditional fundamentals, with the primary driver being a trend towards "de-dollarization," positioning gold as a key value anchor. The historical threshold of $5,500 per ounce is seen as a significant point, indicating structural shifts in the dollar-debt system established post-Bretton Woods [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index for gold industry stocks account for 61.69% of the index, with major companies including Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and Shandong Gold. This concentration highlights the dominance of a few key players in the gold sector [2]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector experienced significant declines, with silver and gold prices dropping sharply, leading to over thirty stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] - Silver prices fell over 11% to below $75 per ounce, while gold saw a maximum drop of approximately 5.74%, currently reported at 4608 yuan per ounce [1] - The previous surge in precious metals was driven by factors such as de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and speculative trading, with gold and silver reaching historical highs before the sudden reversal [1] Group 2 - The CME raised margin requirements for precious metal futures, increasing gold futures margin from 6% to 8% and silver futures margin from 11% to 15% [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange adjusted the margin level for silver deferred contracts from 20% to 26% and increased the price fluctuation limit from 19% to 25% [2] Group 3 - Market institutions have mixed views on the future of precious metals following the historic drop [3] - Citigroup warned that half of the current risk premium for gold may disappear by late 2026, particularly if the political independence of the Federal Reserve is strengthened, which could negatively impact gold's mid-term outlook [4] - However, several institutions maintain bullish forecasts, with CITIC Securities predicting gold could reach $6000 per ounce and UBS forecasting gold to hit $6200 in the first three quarters of this year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant declines, driven by multiple factors including macroeconomic expectations and tightening liquidity, leading to increased market volatility [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals such as silver, palladium, and platinum have seen drastic declines, with silver dropping by 17% and gold by 16% [2][4]. - All base metals have also fallen, with notable declines in copper (9.01%) and aluminum (9.01%) [2]. - The energy sector, including crude oil and fuel oil, has also faced substantial drops, with crude oil down by 7.02% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The nomination of Jerome Powell's potential successor, who is perceived as hawkish, has led to expectations of two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may tighten dollar liquidity [3][4]. - Concerns regarding the U.S. fiscal situation and the independence of the Federal Reserve have not altered the trend of central banks purchasing gold and the ongoing "de-dollarization" trend [3]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has announced measures to increase trading margins for silver contracts to mitigate market risks, which may initially increase market volatility [3][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current market is volatile, the long-term outlook for gold and silver prices remains positive due to industrial demand and potential upward price movements [3][6]. - The supply dynamics for platinum and palladium are expected to differ, with platinum's investment demand increasing significantly, while palladium's demand remains constrained [6]. - The market is anticipated to continue experiencing high volatility, with price movements for platinum and palladium likely influenced by the sentiment in the gold and silver markets [6][7].

Market Overview - The market sentiment has rapidly shifted, leading to significant declines in precious metals, with silver, palladium, platinum, and tin futures hitting their daily limit down, and gold dropping by 11.68% [1] - All base metals also experienced declines, alongside various sectors including energy, black metals, chemicals, and shipping [1] Precious Metals Performance - On February 2, platinum and palladium futures both hit their daily limit down, closing at 552.15 CNY/gram and 413.70 CNY/gram respectively [4] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced that it would raise the trading margin and price fluctuation limits for silver contracts due to the emergence of a one-sided market [3] Market Influences - The nomination of Jerome Powell's potential successor, John Taylor, has led to expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, but also a potential resumption of balance sheet reduction, which may tighten dollar liquidity [3] - Concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation and the independence of the Federal Reserve have not changed the trend of central banks purchasing gold and the "de-dollarization" trend [3] Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent sharp corrections in precious metals and base metals are influenced by macroeconomic expectations and tightening liquidity [5] - The market's reaction to macroeconomic sentiment and fund flows is evident, with analysts noting that platinum and palladium are particularly sensitive to these changes due to their smaller market sizes [7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that platinum's fundamentals will be stronger than palladium's by 2026, with a significant portion of palladium's demand tied to automotive catalysts, which may not see substantial growth [7] - The high volatility in platinum and palladium futures is expected to continue, with their price movements likely influenced by the sentiment in gold and silver markets [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's hawkish expectations have increased after Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed, and Powell indicated that changing economic risks provide more reasons for rate cuts. After Warsh's nomination, the market still expects two rate cuts this year, but there may be a restart of balance - sheet reduction. The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the US January non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [10]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to build positions at low levels after the prices have fully corrected [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Due to the increased hawkish expectations after the new Fed Chairman Warsh took office, the price of gold has corrected. As of last Friday, the price of US gold closed at $4,908 per ounce, a weekly decline of 1.5%. The upper resistance level is $5,060, and the lower support level is $4,750 [6]. - Due to the increased hawkish expectations after the new Fed Chairman Warsh took office, the price of silver has significantly corrected. As of last Friday, the weekly decline was 17.4%, and it closed at $85.3 per ounce. The lower support level is $78, and the upper resistance level is $90 [9]. 2. Weekly Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chairman has led to increased hawkish expectations in the market, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed, and Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut rates. After Warsh's nomination, the market still expects two rate cuts this year, but there may be a restart of balance - sheet reduction. The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the US January non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [10]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to build positions at low levels after the prices have fully corrected [11]. 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), inflation expectations (10Y), and the Fed's balance - sheet size and its weekly changes, as well as the WTI crude oil futures price trend [14][16][20]. 4. Important Economic Data of the Week - The US December PPI annual rate was 3%, with an expected value of 2.7% and a previous value of 3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 24 was 209,000, with an expected value of 205,000 and a previous value of 200,000 [22]. 5. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US President Trump announced that he will appoint Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as the new Fed Chairman. Warsh advocates for both balance - sheet reduction and rate cuts. He is more dovish than the current Chairman Powell but more hawkish than the previous favorite candidate Hassett. Before and after Warsh's nomination, the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts have changed little. Currently, it is still expected that the next rate cut will be in June and there will be two rate cuts throughout the year, which may be due to Warsh's relatively neutral and "flexible" policy stance [23]. - Tensions in the Middle East and investors' concerns about potential supply disruptions have boosted oil prices. US President Trump has reiterated threats against Iran [23]. 6. Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 12,307.14 kilograms to 1,111,906.47 kilograms, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 1,020 kilograms to 103,029 kilograms. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 327,770.44 kilograms to 12,624,500.29 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 126,022 kilograms to 455,068 kilograms [12][27]. 7. Fund Holdings - As of January 27, the net long position of the gold CFTC speculative fund was 206,435 contracts, a decrease of 17,493 contracts from last week. The net long position of the silver CFTC speculative fund was 23,999 contracts, a decrease of 616 contracts from last week [12][32]. 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - On Monday, February 2, at 23:00, the US January ISM manufacturing PMI will be released. - On Wednesday, February 4, at 21:15, the US January ADP employment change will be released. - On Friday, February 6, at 21:30, the US January non - farm payroll change (seasonally adjusted) and the US January unemployment rate will be released [34].

2200 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 展望后市，本次贵金属市场的崩盘给原本的上涨趋势踩下刹车、短期市场或继续释放风险。但在经历了近期的太幅调整后、市场风险也得到一定释放、随着杠 杆的去化，叠加伊朗地缘仍旧复杂和美国政府正式部分停摆等，预计金银价格后续进一步大幅下挫空间或相对有限。白银方面，现货仍旧偏紧、库存持续回落，且 隐波高达100以上，短期玻动料仍较为તી?。中长朝来看，本次贵金属价格的崩盘并不意味着贵金属牛市格局的结束，在美联储年内仍有降息概率，全球地缘不确定 性持续和美国巨额债务将不断推进去美元化浪潮等背景下，全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续，贵金属价格重心仍有上行空间、可关注本次暴跌后带来的逢 低配置机会。 体我告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，但更期货力求准确可靠。但不对上越信息的准确性及完熟性依任何保证、本报告不构成个人投资建议。也未分对个别投资者保持知投资目标、财务优况或需要、投资 者需三行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其标定状况，融此投资。责任会负。本报告仅向标定客户推送，来组国资降货资政许可，任何引用、转载以及可第三方传播的行为少购成或回贸贸股权规 声明 我司 ...