新华财经上海12月9日电 近年来，中东房地产市场凭借量价齐升的强劲态势，成为中国投资客海外资产 配置的新热土。从迪拜的高端别墅到多哈的滨水物业，中国买家的身影日益活跃，推动当地楼市交易规 模屡创新高。 然而，近期也有多位业内人士提示，在高租金回报率与政策红利的吸引下，地缘政治、市场波动等潜在 风险同样不容忽视。建议有全球资产配置需求的中国投资者，结合当地楼市基本面与自身风险偏好，在 投资国别和资产标的的决策上做到审慎及均衡。 中国买家成为中坚力量 中东地区部分热门房地产投资目的地，如阿联酋不动产市场中占比最大、交易最为活跃的两个酋长国阿 布扎比与迪拜，其住宅市场近年来呈现出显著的量价齐升态势。 据行业机构统计数据，2025年上半年，阿布扎比住宅成交金额同比增长30%，价格上涨17%，套均价格 达到近三年峰值330万迪拉姆；迪拜则创下历史最高交易纪录，上半年完成98726笔房地产销售，总成交 额达3269亿迪拉姆，较2020年同期增长超10倍，住宅销售均价同比涨幅也达到16.6%。 卡塔尔上市公司卡塔尔联合发展公司（UDC）总裁兼首席执行官亚西尔·贾伊达（Yasser Al Jaidah）介 绍，公司在卡塔尔的 ...

2025年，在地缘政治风险、降息和央行需求的推动下，金价飙升超过60%。许多专家认为2026年还有进 一步上涨的空间，黄金作为避险资产的地位依然稳固。 在经历了历史性的2025年，即金价飙升超过60%并打破了50多项历史新高之后，投资者现在的注意力转 向了这种贵金属能否在2026年维持其上升轨迹。 黄金在年初至今的表现中领跑主要资产类别，有望创下自1979年以来的最佳年度表现，尽管风险依然存 在，但专家们认为黄金明年可能仍有上涨空间。 与往年由单一事件主导金价走势不同，今年出现了多重驱动因素共同作用的局面。 持续的央行买入、持续的地缘政治摩擦、高企的贸易不确定性、较低的利率以及美元走弱，所有这些因 素结合在一起，助推了市场对作为避险资产的黄金的需求。 根据世界黄金协会的最新报告，地缘政治紧张局势对黄金年初至今的表现贡献了约12个百分点，而美元 疲软和略低的利率又贡献了10个百分点，动能和投资者仓位占了9个点，经济扩张进一步贡献了10个 点。 各国央行也继续大举买入，使官方部门的需求保持在远高于疫情前的水平。世界黄金协会的预测 展望未来，该协会预计，推动2025年金价非凡反弹的许多力量在2026年仍将发挥作用。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with silver prices experiencing narrow fluctuations due to a stable dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, while geopolitical risks continue to support safe-haven buying [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in its final meeting of the year, potentially bringing the target range down to 3.50%-3.75% [2]. - Recent inflation indicators show a slowdown in the disinflation process, and mixed signals from the labor market have led investors to adopt a cautious stance regarding monetary easing before 2026 [2]. - Data on U.S. household spending and inflation, particularly the preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, indicate a weakening disinflation momentum [2]. Group 2: Precious Metals Analysis - Silver maintains a long-term bullish trend, but short-term movements are characterized by upward corrections followed by declines, with key support levels at 54-55 [3]. - Platinum prices are stable, with traders closely monitoring the dollar for new trading catalysts, needing to hold above the critical support area of 1620-1630 to build short-term upward momentum [3]. - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market is cautious, with investors focusing on monetary policy signals and macroeconomic data for guidance [1][2].

Group 1 - Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% during this week's meeting, with a hawkish tone in the post-meeting statement indicating a pause in rate cuts in January [2] - The new economic forecast summary is anticipated to show little change, with the dot plot reflecting one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, each by 25 basis points, and a long-term median interest rate forecast remaining at 3% [2] - Geopolitical uncertainties are rising, particularly regarding the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, with military actions and deployments in the Caribbean being reported [2] Group 2 - The current trading price of silver TD is reported at 13,571 yuan per kilogram, down 0.28% from the opening price of 13,653 yuan per kilogram, with a daily high of 13,730 yuan and a low of 13,502 yuan [1] - The silver TD market shows a short-term bullish trend despite the current slight decline, with support levels identified between 13,000 and 13,500 yuan and resistance levels between 13,800 and 14,000 yuan [3]

StateStreet投资管理公司策略师也表示，尽管金价在2025年可能创下自1979年以来最佳年度表现，但预 计2026年涨势将有所放缓，大概率在每盎司4000至4500美元区间盘整。支撑今年金价的结构性趋势仍将 持续，若股债相关性保持高位，黄金作为分散风险工具的重要性将进一步凸显。同时在全球债务攀升、 通胀顽固及长期收益率上行环境下，黄金仍是具吸引力的对冲资产，而美联储宽松政策带来的美元走弱 与流动性增加，亦将为金价提供支撑。 全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上日减少1.14吨，当前持仓量为1049.11吨。 分析师指出，尽管金价短期小跌，但美联储鹰派降息预期、地缘政治紧张、货币波动和债券市场反应， 都在为黄金铺设长期上行路径。短线而言，投资者还需留意国际贸易局势的相关消息。 周二(12月9日)亚洲时段，现货黄金维持弱势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4186.62美元/盎司，下跌 0.06%，最高触及4198.62美元/盎司，最低下探4184.15美元/盎司。市场担心美联储在降息的同时可能释 放鹰派信号影响，黄金小幅回落，目前依然维持在区间震荡之中，交易员普遍预计本周将迎来25个基点 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, and glass are rated as "weak" or "weak and volatile"; rebar is in a "volatile state". [2] - **Financial Sector**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, 2 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds are rated as "volatile"; the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "rebounding"; the 10 - year treasury bond is rated as "downward". [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are rated as "strong and volatile"; logs are rated as "bottoming out and volatile". [4] - **Light Industry**: Pulp, double - offset paper, and logs are rated as "volatile"; paper pulp is rated as "volatile and returning". [7] - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "range - bound"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.1, and soybean No.2 are rated as "weak and volatile". [7][8] - **Agricultural Products**: Pigs are rated as "weak". [8] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "weak and volatile". [10] - **Polyester**: PX is rated as "widely volatile"; PTA is rated as "volatile"; MEG is rated as "weakly volatile"; PR and PF are rated as "wait - and - see". [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main line of the iron ore market in 2026 is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory build - up". With new global mine production increasing and real - time demand weak, prices are expected to be weak and volatile. For coal coke, there are pressures on supply and expectations of price cuts, but there is support at the bottom. The steel market is in a bottom - volatile state, and the key to price stabilization lies in production cuts and anti - "involution" policies. [2] - The central government's economic work plan for 2026 emphasizes a series of policies, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The high - tech industry is growing, but the 10 - year treasury bond yield shows a downward trend. [3] - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and Chinese physical gold demand support its price. The short - term impact comes from the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment. [4] - Logs' demand improvement needs further observation, and the pulp market's supply and demand are in a re - balancing process. The price trends of various paper products are mainly volatile. [7] - The demand outlook for oils and fats is uncertain, with supply remaining abundant. The price of soybean meal and related products is expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as US soybean supply and South American weather. [7][8] - The pig market has a stable supply, but terminal demand growth is limited, and prices are expected to decline. [8] - The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, the price is expected to be weak and volatile. The polyester market has different trends for different products, mainly affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand. [10] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current iron - making water production is decreasing, plate inventory is high, and steel mill maintenance is expected to increase. Although macro - sentiment may warm up, real improvement depends on the peak season next year. After the stock - replenishment and sentiment boost, there are opportunities to short on rebounds. [2] - **Coal Coke**: Some coke enterprises have turned profitable, but steel mills are still in the red. November's Mongolian coal imports may reach a new high, and there is supply pressure. The first round of coke price cuts in December has landed, and there are still expectations for further cuts. However, there is support at the bottom due to downstream stock - replenishment demand and coal production reduction expectations. [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Steel demand is weak, and the winter stock - replenishment has not started. The key to steel price stabilization is whether the production cut in the fourth quarter of 2025 can exceed 5% and the implementation of anti - "involution" policies. Currently, prices are in a bottom - volatile state. [2] - **Glass**: The price in the Shahe area has weakened again, and demand is insufficient. Some glass factories have postponed cold - repair plans. Although inventory has decreased, it is still higher than the same period last year. The key to price stabilization lies in cold - repair progress and macro - factors. [2][3] Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The central government emphasizes a series of economic policies for 2026. The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and the high - tech industry is growing. The performance of different stock indexes varies, and some sectors show capital inflows or outflows. [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond is flat, and the market shows a small - amplitude rebound. The central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations, and the net investment is positive. [3] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, with central bank gold purchases being the key. Factors such as the US debt problem, high - interest - rate environment, geopolitical risks, and Chinese physical gold demand support its price. The Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term influencing factors. The market has a high expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. [4] - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume at ports has increased, but the demand improvement needs further observation. The import volume from New Zealand has decreased, and the expected arrival volume has increased. The port inventory has decreased, and the spot market price is stable. [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price shows a differentiated trend, with the cost support for pulp price increasing. However, the papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak, so the pulp price is expected to return to a volatile state. [7] - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot market price is stable, the supply side changes little, and the mid - month publication orders help with sales. However, weak social demand restricts price increases, and the price is expected to remain volatile. [7] Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The demand for US soybean crushing is strong, but the biodiesel policy is uncertain, and exports are weak. The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in October exceeded expectations, and exports in November decreased. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and demand from the catering industry is weak. With cost support, the price is expected to be range - bound. [7] - **Meals**: The US soybean supply is structurally tight, but the global supply is relatively loose. Brazilian soybeans have an advantage in export price. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and demand from the breeding industry is cautious. The price is expected to be weak and volatile. [7][8] Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The average trading weight shows a north - rising and south - falling trend. The terminal demand growth is limited, and the settlement price may decline further. The slaughtering rate has increased, but the profit of self - breeding and self - raising has decreased, and that of piglet fattening has increased. The overall price is expected to decline. [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply in domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas is affected by weather, and the demand support is insufficient. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile. [10] Polyester - **PX**: With the resumption of oil production in Iraq, oil prices have declined. The PX supply is high, but downstream demand has increased, and the PXN spread is temporarily stable. The price is widely volatile. [10] - **PTA**: The cost side is unstable due to oil price fluctuations. Although short - term supply and demand have improved, the industry will weaken seasonally, and the price is expected to follow the cost side. [10] - **MEG**: There is still long - term inventory build - up pressure, and the short - term supply has decreased. The price is weakly volatile, and the spot basis is weakening. [10] - **PR and PF**: The polyester bottle - chip market is expected to be weak due to low oil prices and weak terminal demand. The short - fiber market price may be weakly sorted due to low prices, weak demand, and weakening cost support. [10]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美联储降息预期打压美元指数并推高贵金属的流动性溢价，与此同时市场继 续关注新任美联储主席提名人选对美联储货币政策倾向的潜在影响，短期内金价 易涨难跌，关注本周三美联储议息会议对 2026 年货币政策的指引；全球经济增长 前景改善，使得工业属性较强的银铂钯在广期所上市铂钯品种的情况下持续偏强 运行，但上周银铂钯价格初现松动迹象，建议投资者留意银铂钯价格短期飙升后 调整风险的释放。中短期内多空因素交织，我们判断伦敦黄金需要在 3880-4380 美 ...

2025年12月8日，国际金价站上4196美元/盎司，国内金价逼近千元关口。 这种剧烈波动反映了市场对多重因素的重新定价过程。 推动金价上涨的核心动力首先来自全球央行的持续性购金行为。 这场"黄金狂飙"背后，是年内超50%的涨幅、20多次历史新高的纪录，以及全球央行持续购金、美联储降息预期与地缘风险交织的复杂图景。 然而高位金价已让普通消费者望而却步——金饰需求同比下降19%，回收金供应却增加6%。 当前市场正陷入多空拉锯战：多头坚信降息周期与"去美元化"趋势将推高金价，空方则警告美国经济韧性可能逆转宽松预期。 面对震荡行情，投资者需清醒认识到：黄金的定价逻辑已发生根本性变革，央行购金取代实际利率成为新锚点，而这一变化将深刻影响未来走势。 2025年12月8日的黄金市场数据显示，伦敦现货黄金报价4196.03美元/盎司，较前一日下跌12.57美元，跌幅0.30%。 国内市场方面，上海黄金交易所主力合约AU99.99报953.0元/克，投资金条价格在966-976元/克区间波动。 品牌金店首饰金价格呈现明显分化：周大福、老凤祥等高端品牌价格达到1328元/克，而菜百首饰等性价比品牌价格为1292元/克。 黄金回 ...

新华财经北京12月8日电上周（12月1日至5日当周），国际金价高位盘整。当周金价开盘于每盎司 4223.10美元，最高4264.56美元，最低4163.46美元，收盘报4198.23美元，全周波幅101.10美元，周度下 跌24.87美元，跌幅0.59%。 当周金价K线呈现小阴十字星形态，显示黄金市场仍处于高位震荡阶段，趋势性突破动能不足，投资者 静待本周美联储货币政策会议提供清晰指引。 基本面缺少指引 从上周影响黄金市场的基本面来看，一方面，俄乌局势仍存在缓和的预期，另一方面，美联储官员进入 缄默期，市场暂时难从官员讲话中寻觅有关降息前景的信息。这使得黄金市场整体表现平静，没有明显 的方向性趋势。 具体来看，近期地缘政治局势整体呈现缓和预期与局部冲突风险并存的局面。美国透露与俄罗斯进行 了"建设性讨论"，市场对俄乌冲突缓和的预期升温，削弱了黄金的部分避险吸引力。然而，前线交火并 未停止，和平前景仍存变数，这种情况的存在，限制了金价的下跌空间。此外，委内瑞拉局势、阿富汗 与巴基斯坦边境冲突等地缘风险事件将继续维持全球地缘政治局势的不确定性底色。 货币政策方面，美联储进入议息会议前的"缄默期"，官员停止公开发表 ...

| E T 1 | 2 P | | --- | --- | | N | | | 1 | 1 90 1 | | D | | | 1 . | | | 2 | | 【沥青】 近期河北鑫海、温州中油、山东胜星等停产或转产渣油，克石化及辽河石化提产，整体供应微增。周度出货量 不足40万吨，环比减少3.4%，位于近四年同期低位水平。社会库环比小幅下滑，同比来看，自10月下旬出现由 减转增的拐点后同比增幅逐步扩大;炼厂库存环比小增，整体商业库存去化节奏明显放缓。BU走势承压。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月08日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 中国1-11月原油进口量同比增加3.2%。近期俄乌和平谈判维持僵局,关于基辅的安全保障及俄罗斯实控领土问 题 ...