Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, leading to a decline in oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices dropping by 12.5% and 12.1% respectively, settling at $66.34 and $65.07 per barrel as of June 27, 2025 [3] Group 2 - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran does not address the ongoing nuclear negotiations, with Iran continuing to assess its nuclear program and asserting it will not abandon its nuclear ambitions, which poses significant geopolitical risks [4] - OPEC+ is expected to continue its large-scale production increase plan, with a proposed increase of 411,000 barrels per day, which is three times the original plan, although actual increases may be lower due to some members exceeding their quotas [5] Group 3 - Shell is reportedly in preliminary acquisition talks with BP, which could lead to the largest energy sector merger since the Exxon-Mobil deal in 1999, as BP is seen as a potential acquisition target due to its underperformance and strategic shift back to oil and gas [6]

周度报告-黄金 市场风险偏好回升，黄金承压下挫 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 黄金：看跌 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 6 | 月 | 29 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★市场综述： 伦敦金跌 2.8%至 3274 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.28%，通胀 预期 2.3%，实际利率降至 1.97%，美元指数跌 1.32%至 97.4，标普 500 指数涨 3.44%，离岸人民币小幅升值，内外价差窄幅波动。 金价回调，一方面是地缘政治风险降温，美国打击伊朗核设施后 加快了伊朗和以色列的停火进程，美国没有朝着深陷战争泥潭的 方向发展，伊朗的回应也非常克制，原油价格基本回吐涨幅，减 少了美国通胀上行风险。一方面是美国经济尚未衰退，美联储维 持按兵不动暂停降息的状态，市场缺乏增量利多，鲍威尔在国会 就半年度货币政策报告作证词，表态鹰派，关税带来的不确定性 和通胀上行风险导致美联储对降息较为谨慎，同时美联储内部的 分歧也在增加，沃勒和鲍曼先后表态支持最快 ...

➢ 汽油价差收窄，烯烃价差扩大。截至 6 月 27 日，1）炼油：NYMEX 汽油和 取暖油期货结算价和 WTI 期货结算价差分别为 21.39/28.60 美元/桶，周环比变 化-7.79%/-8.67%。2）化工：乙烯/丙烯/甲苯和石脑油价差为 281/231/160 美 元/吨，较上周变化+50.10%/+97.03%/+86.04%；FDY/POY/DTY 价差为 1544/1344/2519 元/吨，较上周变化+14.55%/+18.12%/+6.61%。 ➢ 投资建议：我们推荐以下两条主线：1）油价有底，石油企业业绩确定性高， 叠加高分红特点，估值有望提升，建议关注抗风险能力强且资源量优势强的中国 石油、产量持续增长且桶油成本低的中国海油、高分红一体化公司中国石化；2） 国内鼓励油气增储上产，建议关注产量处于成长期的中曼石油、新天然气。 石化周报 以伊官宣停火，原油暂时回归基本面定价 2025 年 06 月 29 日 ➢ 以伊官宣停火，原油暂时回归基本面定价。6 月 23 日，特朗普在社交媒体 平台上表示，以色列和伊朗将于 24 日 0 时起停火，6 月 24 日，伊朗最高国家安 全委员会声明，宣 ...

Core Viewpoint - European political figures are advocating for the repatriation of gold reserves stored in the United States, particularly from Germany and Italy, due to increasing geopolitical risks and concerns over the reliability of U.S. economic policies [1][5][11]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Value - Germany holds 3,352 tons of gold and Italy has 2,452 tons, with over one-third of their gold stored in the New York Federal Reserve, totaling a value exceeding $245 billion [3][5]. - The call for repatriation is driven by the desire to secure national assets amidst rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East [5][11]. Group 2: Geopolitical Concerns - The recent volatility in the Middle East has heightened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, prompting European nations to reconsider their gold storage strategies [5][11]. - Concerns over U.S. economic policy, particularly influenced by former President Trump's criticisms of the Federal Reserve, have led to increased anxiety regarding the stability of U.S. financial governance [7][9]. Group 3: Trust Issues and Historical Context - Historical reasons for storing gold in the U.S. stem from Cold War fears, but current geopolitical dynamics suggest that the necessity for such arrangements may be diminishing [11][12]. - There is a growing sentiment among Europeans that U.S. actions, particularly under Trump's administration, are undermining their interests, leading to a gradual erosion of trust [11][12]. Group 4: Future Implications - Despite the desire for repatriation, significant progress is unlikely in the short term due to the complexities of transatlantic relations and the ongoing political landscape [12]. - Many European leaders still view the New York Federal Reserve as a reliable storage partner, indicating a cautious approach to any immediate changes in gold storage policies [12].

Group 1 - Recent geopolitical turmoil has minimal impact on U.S. stock returns, with historical data showing no significant effect on the S&P 500 index's 6-month performance during periods of heightened geopolitical risk [1][2] - The industrial sector tends to perform well following spikes in geopolitical risk, outperforming the S&P 500 index over two-thirds of the time, with a median excess return of +220 basis points [2] - Conversely, the energy sector often lags behind the S&P 500 index during the same periods, underperforming over 75% of the time, with a median relative return of -940 basis points [2] Group 2 - The analysis is based on the Caldera-Rakovich Geopolitical Risk Index (GPRXGRPR), which has been tracking geopolitical risks since 1985, identifying significant events that may impact market performance [5] - The study highlights that while geopolitical risks can lead to increased volatility, the overall impact on risk assets may remain weak unless conflicts escalate significantly [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term copper market may continue to fluctuate strongly, and the subsequent performance of downstream consumption still needs to be monitored [50]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to 236,000, lower than the expected 245,000, while the number of continued jobless claims rose to 1,974,000, the highest since November 2021 [5]. - The annualized quarterly rate of the real GDP final value in the US in the first quarter decreased by 0.5%, higher than the expected decrease of 0.2%, showing the first contraction in three years, and personal consumption final value only increased by 0.5% [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts between Israel and Iran eased, and the impact on copper supply and transportation weakened. Trump planned to arrange a Fed chair before Powell's term ended and promote rapid interest - rate cuts [5]. - The basic copper index decreased compared with last week. The supply - side disturbances of copper smelting continued, and the domestic copper concentrate processing fee remained low. The estimated output of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The domestic electrolytic copper inventory decreased, and the low inventory continued to support the short - term copper price [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The domestic TC maintained a low - level weak quotation, the spot premium strengthened, the US dollar index weakened significantly, and the geopolitical risk eased [8][9][12]. - **Bearish factors**: The demand performance was weak [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply - side data** - China's copper ore and concentrate imports in May were 2.3952 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.55% and a year - on - year increase of 6.61%. The deliveries from Chile and Peru both declined [15]. - As of the week of June 20, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.8 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 0.64 US dollars per dry ton compared with last week. The domestic copper concentrate processing fee remained low [19]. - In May, the actual domestic electrolytic copper output was 1.1417 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 16.33%. The output in June is expected to remain high [21]. - China's scrap copper imports in May were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53%. The deliveries from Thailand, Japan, and the US all declined [24]. - **Demand - side data** - As of June 26, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around - 900 yuan per ton, which was beneficial to refined copper consumption [28]. - In May, the domestic copper strip output was 210,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.46% but still higher than the same period last year [32]. - In May, the domestic refined copper rod output was 840,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.78% and a year - on - year increase of 23.43%. The domestic recycled copper rod output was 201,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 7.82% [36]. - In May, China's total automobile exports were 551,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. Among them, new - energy vehicle exports were 212,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year increase of 120% [40]. - **Inventory and Premium Data** - The LME copper inventory continued to decline last week, the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1.1% in the week of June 20, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on June 26 decreased by 100 tons compared with June 23 [43]. - On June 26, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was around 70 yuan per ton, showing a decline, while the LME 0 - 3 spot premium increased significantly [47]. 3.4后市研判 The short - term copper market may continue to fluctuate strongly, and the subsequent performance of downstream consumption still needs to be monitored [50].

日前，特朗普政府对美联储的不断批评叠加加剧的地缘政治风险，重新点燃了德国和意大利关于将黄金运回其国内的公众 辩论。 德国、意大利分别是全球第二和第三大黄金储备国 图源：外媒报道截图 此外，美国政府的不稳定言论也加剧了部分国家对存放在美国的黄金安全性的担忧，担心其可能受到政治干预。今年2月， 特朗普公开质疑是否有可能有黄金从美国最大黄金储备库的诺克斯堡失踪。 在德国，将黄金运回国内的提议，正获得左右两翼政党愈发广泛的支持。基社盟的著名前保守派议员Peter Gauweiler近期 就强调，德国央行在保护国家黄金储备时"绝不能走捷径"。 "我们需要解决过去十年，在海外存储黄金是否变得更加安全稳定的问题"，他补充称，"答案不言自明(是否定的)，因为地 缘政治风险已使世界变得更加不安全。" 据悉，欧洲纳税人协会近期也已致函德国和意大利的财政部及央行，敦促政策制定者重新审视依赖美联储作为其黄金托管 人的做法。"我们对特朗普干预美联储独立性深表担忧，"欧洲纳税人协会主席Michael Jäger表示。 Jäger指出，"我们的建议是将德国和意大利的黄金运回国内，以确保欧洲央行在任何时候都能对黄金拥有完全控制权。" 在意大 ...

16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-27） | | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石现货成交偏弱，基差继续收窄。本期全球铁矿石发运总 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 量、到港量环比回升，整体处于近年来同期高位水平，铁矿发运有冲量预 | | | | | | 期。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍旧在 | | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水状况。 | | | | | | 铁矿石整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的 | | | | | | 局面，铁矿供需过剩格局不变，短期在煤焦安全检查影响炒作下，板块跟 | | | | | | 随反弹，后期关注铁水动向。 | | | | | | 煤焦：近日主产区环保检查升级，内蒙乌海及临汾地区停产煤矿及洗煤厂 | | | | | | 较多，部分煤矿和洗煤厂暂停拉运，焦煤现货供应自本月中旬以来持续回 | | | | 煤焦 | 反弹 | 落，煤焦迎来强势拉涨。焦炭方面，钢厂打压焦炭，对焦企第四轮提降落 | | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the unexpected performance of gold prices during the recent Israel-Iran conflict, where geopolitical tensions did not lead to the anticipated rise in gold prices, contrary to historical trends [1][2][3] - The London spot gold price briefly reached $3450 per ounce at the onset of the conflict but subsequently fell to around $3330, marking a cumulative decline of 1.87% [1] - The lack of a significant increase in geopolitical risk premium for gold during this conflict is noted as an anomaly compared to historical reactions to similar geopolitical events [1][3] Group 2 - Citibank Research has significantly lowered its three-month gold price target from $3500 to $3150, reflecting a 10% decrease [4] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook, suggesting that if geopolitical conflicts or policy uncertainties escalate, gold prices could still challenge $3500 or higher [5] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are still far from the peak levels seen in 2011, indicating that gold has not yet reached a bubble state [5][6] Group 3 - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves, with one-third of 75 global central banks planning to do so in the next one to two years, which could support gold prices [7] - Uncertainties surrounding tariff policies may lead to inflationary pressures, with the potential for stagflation risks increasing, which could provide opportunities for gold investment [8] - The dollar's credit crisis is a concern, as the dollar index has dropped by 9.72% this year, prompting investors to shift funds from dollar assets to gold and other safe-haven assets [9] Group 4 - The gold ETF (518800) has seen its scale grow to 18.1 billion, with an increase of over 11 billion this year, indicating active trading and interest in gold investments [10] - For retail investors, gold ETFs may offer better liquidity and preservation compared to physical gold or jewelry, reflecting the overall trend and investment value in the gold market [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Macro and Stock Index - Domestic economic data shows marginal improvement, and six departments including the central bank have issued guidelines to support consumption, with a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market. The international Middle - East situation is short - term eased but still has the risk of recurrence. IC/IM maintains a deep discount. Short - sellers should choose the near - month contract to avoid basis fluctuations in the far - month contract, while long - term investors can focus on basis convergence opportunities. The long - IM and short - IH arbitrage portfolio may still have room, but beware of the callback pressure of small - cap stocks at high levels [2]. Crude Oil - The conflict between Israel and Iran has eased, and the risk premium of crude oil has shrunk significantly. The price has fallen sharply and is seeking support at the 500 - yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract. WTI main contract should focus on the support around $65/barrel [3]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell reiterated "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", but Trump's dissatisfaction has led to concerns about the Fed's policy continuity and independence. The weakening dollar supports gold, while the easing of the Middle - East situation weakens its short - term safe - haven demand. The current gold price is in a shock range, and attention should be paid to the US GDP and PCE data [4][5]. Silver - The internal policy divergence of the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has decreased, suppressing the short - term upward movement of precious metals. The demand growth in key areas of silver is slowing down, but it may have room for a supplementary rise compared with gold. Pay attention to the support at $34.8 - 35.0/ounce [6]. Chemicals - PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term. PVC, PP, and plastics still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term due to weak fundamentals. Soda ash is recommended to be treated with a bottom - shock idea, and glass is recommended to be treated with an interval - shock idea [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Agricultural Products - Corn is in an upward channel but may face short - term callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 2350 yuan/ton. Peanuts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Cotton's upside space is limited. Bean II and soybean meal may test the platform support in the short term. Soybean oil may fluctuate in the short term. Hogs may fluctuate, and eggs may oscillate at a low level [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Metals - Shanghai copper is waiting for new signals. Shanghai aluminum can be operated in the short term by aggressive investors or waited by conservative investors. Alumina shows a weak adjustment trend. Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate in the short term. Lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may oscillate at the bottom [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Black Metals - Stainless steel may fluctuate weakly at a low level. Rebar and hot - rolled coils can be considered to go long lightly at low levels. Iron ore may oscillate in the short term, and coal may also oscillate in the short term [35][36][37][38][39]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Situation**: Domestic economic data improves marginally, and policies support consumption and long - term funds entry. Internationally, the Middle - East situation is unstable [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Different stock index futures have different trading volumes, basis rates, and capital flows. The style differentiation continues [2]. - **Reference Views**: Provide suggestions for short - sellers, long - term investors, and arbitrageurs, and remind of risks [2]. Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between Israel and Iran eases, and the risk premium of crude oil shrinks [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to price fluctuations, and the price is sensitive to external factors. The summer peak season supports the price to some extent [3]. - **Reference Views**: Focus on the support level of WTI [3]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: Powell's statement and Trump's dissatisfaction affect the dollar and gold. The easing of the Middle - East situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Gold price is supported by the weak dollar and interest - rate cut expectations, and shows a short - term bearish signal [4][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on key economic data and the support level of gold [5]. Silver - **Market Price**: The price of spot silver shows a narrow - range shock [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy divergence in the Fed, slowing demand growth in key areas, and geopolitical factors affect silver price [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Silver may have room for a supplementary rise, and pay attention to the support level [6]. Chemicals PTA and Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol in East China are the same, with a decline and a certain basis [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: Middle - East geopolitical easing affects the cost. There are device overhauls and restarts, and the demand is weak [7][8]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval fluctuation [7][8]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC are stable [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate changes, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreases [9]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [9]. PP - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of PP decline [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate rises, demand decreases, and inventory increases [10]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [10][11]. Plastics - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of plastics have different trends [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate decreases slightly, demand has a small change, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, inventory increases, and demand is average [13]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term bottom - shock [13][14]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreases slightly, inventory decreases slightly, and demand is weak [15]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [15]. Rubber - **Market Price**: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by crude oil and trade policies, the supply is loose, and the demand is affected by the trade war [16]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock and focus on downstream开工率 [16][17]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions change [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Futures price rises, port inventory increases, supply increases, and demand has different trends [18]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock and focus on Iranian supply and domestic inventory [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term callback and focus on the support level [20]. Peanuts - **Spot Price**: The prices in different regions are provided [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The expected increase in planting area may put pressure on the price, and the current supply - demand is weak [21]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [21]. Cotton - **Spot Information**: The prices of domestic and foreign cotton are provided [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report is positive, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose, with short - term supply - demand contradictions [22]. - **Reference Views**: Limited upside space [22]. Bean II - **Spot Information**: The import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The Middle - East conflict eases, and the weather affects the market [23]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [23]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [24]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by macro - policies, international factors, and domestic supply - demand [24][25]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [25]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [26]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by international and domestic supply - demand factors [26]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [26]. Hogs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions change [27]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the price, and the price may oscillate [27]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term oscillation, and focus on the slaughter situation [27]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions decline [28]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is still excessive, and demand is weak in the off - season [28]. - **Reference Views**: Low - level oscillation, and focus on farmers' culling willingness [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of electrolytic copper rises, and the import index falls [29]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical and policy factors affect the market, and the copper market is in a complex situation [29]. - **Reference Views**: Wait for new signals [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The price of aluminum rises [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical risks, supply - demand situation, and inventory level affect the price [30]. - **Reference Views**: Different strategies for different types of investors [30]. Alumina - **Spot Information**: The price of alumina falls [31]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is excessive, demand is average, and inventory is high [31]. - **Reference Views**: Weak adjustment [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The price is stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and supply - demand contradictions affect the price [32]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rise [33]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to weak fundamentals and high inventory [33]. - **Reference Views**: Considered as an oversold rebound, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [33]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon fall [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [34]. Polysilicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory is high [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and consider profit - taking for short - sellers [34]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel rises [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weak, supply is high, and demand is weak [35]. - **Reference Views**: Weak shock at a low level [35]. Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of rebar in Shanghai falls [36]. - **Market Analysis**: The market shows a shock trend, with cost and demand factors [36]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [36]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Spot Information**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai is stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is stabilizing, with cost and demand factors [37]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The prices of iron ore indexes and varieties are provided [38]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors, and external factors affect the price [38]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and production resumption [38]. Coal - **Spot Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke change [39]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal and coke [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and policies [39].