Group 1 - Global stock fund inflows significantly decreased to $2.27 billion for the week ending August 20, down from $19.29 billion the previous week, influenced by cautious investor sentiment towards major tech stock sell-offs and upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium [2] - U.S. equity funds experienced a net outflow of $2.4 billion, reversing the previous week's inflow of approximately $8.76 billion [5] - European and Asian equity funds saw their weekly net inflows slow to $4.2 billion and $0.7 million, respectively, compared to $7.1 billion and $2.08 billion the prior week [5] Group 2 - Global bond funds continued to attract investment for the 17th consecutive week, with a net inflow of $18.82 billion [8] - High-yield bond funds received a net inflow of $3.03 billion, marking the largest inflow in eight weeks [8] - Investors also added $2.52 billion to short-term bond funds for the eighth consecutive week [8] Group 3 - Money market funds saw a net inflow of $13.98 billion, continuing a buying trend for the third week [11] - Gold and precious metals commodity funds experienced a net outflow of $2.93 billion, ending a 12-week buying streak [11] - Emerging market equity funds attracted a net inflow of $4.58 billion after two weeks of net outflows, while bond funds saw a net increase of $2.13 billion [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Powell's dovish shift triggered the market, leading to a significant increase in gold and silver prices, and raising expectations of a September interest rate cut [4][5] - The shift in the Fed's stance to dovish provides support for gold prices, and the premium of Shanghai gold continues to converge [4] - Silver prices mainly follow gold prices, and the premium of Shanghai silver converges [5] - Due to Trump's inauguration, the global situation has become extremely volatile, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to decline, and silver prices are also affected [9][12] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: Powell's dovish shift triggered the market, with the US three major stock indexes rising across the board, European three major stock indexes closing slightly higher, US bond yields falling collectively, the US dollar index dropping 0.94% to 97.72, and COMEX gold futures rising 1.05% to $3417.20 per ounce. The gold basis is -2.96, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 813 kilograms to 37455 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [4] - **Silver**: Powell's dovish shift triggered the market, risk appetite quickly increased, and silver prices rose significantly. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes closed slightly higher, US bond yields fell collectively, the US dollar index dropped 0.94% to 97.72, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.10% to $38.88 per ounce. The silver basis is -27, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5932 kilograms to 1109123 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [5] 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Expectations are that today's focus will be on US new home sales in July and speeches by Fed members. Powell's dovish shift triggered the market, raising expectations of a September interest rate cut, and gold prices rebounded significantly. The premium of Shanghai gold continues to converge to -0.45 yuan/gram. The Fed's dovish stance provides support for gold prices [4] - **Silver**: Powell's dovish shift triggered the market, raising expectations of a September interest rate cut, risk appetite quickly increased, and silver prices rose significantly. The premium of Shanghai silver converges to around 370 yuan/kilogram. The Fed's dovish stance makes silver prices stronger [5] 3. Today's Focus - All day: The UK stock market is closed for a holiday - 09:00: China Evergrande is officially delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange - 10:00: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference to introduce the achievements of customs in safeguarding national security and promoting high - quality development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period - 16:00: Germany's August IFO business climate index - 20:30: US Chicago Fed national activity index for July - 22:00: US new home sales in July - 22:30: US Dallas Fed business activity index for August - 03:15 the next day: 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan gives a speech [14] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is -2.96, with the spot at a discount to the futures; gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 813 kilograms to 37455 kilograms [4] - **Silver**: The basis is -27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5932 kilograms to 1109123 kilograms [5] 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased. As of August 22, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.55% to 613,101, the short positions increased by 1.68% to 464,900, and the net position decreased by 2.84% to 148,201 [4][29] - **Silver**: The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased. As of August 22, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 0.26% to 1,055,006, the short positions decreased by 0.10% to 958,085, and the net position increased by 3.96% to 96,921 [5][31] - **ETF Positions**: Gold ETF positions continue to decrease, and silver ETF positions decreased slightly but are higher than the same period in the past two years [34][37] - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly and are higher than the same period last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [38][39][41]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that optimism regarding US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations has reduced risk aversion, leading to fluctuations in gold prices, which saw a significant increase following dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole annual central bank symposium [1] - Gold futures on COMEX rose by 1.02% to $3417.20 per ounce by the end of the week, marking a two-week high, while the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) fell by 0.3% and the gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 1.3% [1] - The US manufacturing sector showed strong performance, with the August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading at 53.3, the highest since May 2022, significantly exceeding the expected 49.5 [1] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims in the US increased by 11,000 to 235,000, reaching the highest level since June and surpassing market expectations of 225,000 [1] - Fed Chair Powell's dovish stance indicated a potential need to adjust policy due to rising downside risks in employment, suggesting that a rate cut in September is highly likely, which supports the upward movement of precious metals [1] - The analysis from CITIC Construction Futures noted that the market's risk aversion has significantly decreased following the US-Russia summit, putting pressure on precious metals, but Powell's comments have created a mixed environment that requires ongoing attention to the developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Fed's rate cut trajectory [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices remained stable as the market awaited signals regarding U.S. interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with a slight increase in copper prices noted [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 21, LME three-month copper rose by $4, or 0.04%, closing at $9,724.50 per ton, after hitting a low of $9,670.50 on August 20, the lowest since August 7 [1][2]. - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $8.50 (0.33%) to $2,585.00, while three-month zinc, lead, tin, and nickel experienced declines [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicated a recovery in U.S. manufacturing, with August business activity accelerating and order growth reaching the strongest level in 18 months, while the Eurozone saw its first manufacturing expansion in over three years [4]. - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month has slightly decreased, providing support for the U.S. dollar, which in turn makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies [4]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Codelco, a major Chilean copper producer, announced a reduction in its 2025 production forecast by 33,000 tons due to an accident at its El Teniente mine, which is expected to impact overall copper supply [4]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global copper market surplus of 251,000 tons for the first half of 2025, down from a surplus of 395,000 tons in the same period last year, with refined copper production increasing to 14.21 million tons from 13.72 million tons year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that increased defense spending in the European Union will significantly boost industrial metal demand, projecting upward price risks for copper in 2026 and 2027, with expected prices of $10,000 and $10,750 per ton, respectively [5].

Group 1 - Emerging market currencies have declined for the sixth consecutive day due to strong U.S. manufacturing data and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which have further pressured expectations for interest rate cuts [1][4] - The focus is shifting to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, where he may reiterate the limited impact of tariffs on inflation while acknowledging a softening labor market, reinforcing market interest rate expectations [4] - The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President, Loretta Mester, stated that she would not support a rate cut if a decision were needed tomorrow, leading to a decline in the overall performance of emerging market currencies to the lowest level since early August [4] Group 2 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw a slight rebound of 0.1%, ending a two-day decline caused by a drop in U.S. tech stocks, while the bond market showed mixed results [6] - The Hungarian forint led the decline among currencies due to escalating rumors regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while the Brazilian real and Mexican peso remained strong against the dollar [6] - In the geopolitical arena, former President Trump indicated support for Ukraine to launch more counterattacks against Russia, suggesting a potential shift in U.S. policy, which could impact risk assets [7]

能够激发市场避险情绪的事件越来越少。以色列和伊朗，6月24日正式结束冲突；泰国和柬埔寨7月28日结束冲突。现如今，持续三年多时间的 俄罗斯和乌克兰冲突，也面临偃旗息鼓的局面。 本周一，美国总统在与乌克兰总统泽连斯基会晤后表示，已经开始计划俄罗斯总统普京与泽连斯基的会晤，地点尚未确定。此次会晤后，特朗 普还将举行包括普京、泽连斯基和他本人的三方会晤。已经有政府官员声称，俄罗斯和乌克兰的会晤将会在未来两周内进行，地点有可能在匈 牙利。 从媒体报道来看，俄罗斯和乌克兰签署和平协议，已经是大概率事件。或者说，已经是市场的主流预期。延续三年多时间的避险情绪，在面对 和平协议大概率签署的局面时，将会彻底丧失对国际金价的提振作用。 黄金的最新报价在3338美元上下，距离历史最高点3499美元仅有161美元差距，金价依旧处于相对历史高位区间。但是，这种抗跌的属性并不主 要来自于避险属性，而是主要来自于美元指数的下跌。 特朗普入主白宫以来，各项激进的对内和对外措施，令华尔街以及全球金融机构无比紧张和失望。资金纷纷出逃美国，导致美元指数持续重 挫。今年1月份，美元指数最高触及110.18高点，现如今，美元指数最低跌至96.37， ...

各位朋友，晚上好。我是帮主郑重。近日市场波动加剧，标普500已连续四个交易日收跌，这一信号值得高度警惕。凭借20年财经观察经验，我深知这种 连续回调往往预示更深层次的调整正在酝酿。今天就来为大家梳理背后的核心动因。 ⚠️ 首要焦点仍是美联储政策动向。最新会议纪要显示，委员对通胀的担忧远超就业，尤其关注特朗普关税政策可能带来的冲击。这一态度暗示货币政策 可能进一步转向鹰派，加息预期再度升温。通胀犹如悬顶之剑，一旦失控，市场恐将面临剧烈调整。 科技巨头英特尔计划折价增资，同样引发忧虑。折价往往意味着企业融资困难或市场信心不足，当日英特尔股价大跌近7%，不仅反映个体困境，更折射 整个科技板块承压。作为市场风向标，科技股走弱可能引发资金大规模调仓。 更值得警惕的是，橡树资本明确警告美股处于"泡沫初期"。标普500市盈率高企，巴菲特指标亦创历史峰值，市场估值已明显偏离合理区间，回调风险正 在累积。 其他市场中，中概股走势出现分化，富途控股上涨而台积电走低，反映同一板块内部分歧加剧。大宗商品方面，WTI原油因地缘局势与库存下降而走高， 可能进一步推升通胀；黄金攀升至3350美元附近，显示避险情绪正在升温。欧洲富时100指 ...

来源：市场资讯 8月21日，昨日周二我们认为，市场对美联储9月降息的押注有所减少，降息预期降温，以及俄乌冲突出 现和平的希望，抑制避险需求，这对黄金构成压制，不过由于美联储9月份仍大概率降息25个基点，以 及特朗普的关税政策吸引避险买盘，仍对金价形成支撑，限制进一步回落的空间，因此操作上建议大 家，上方压力关注3345和3358美元，下方支撑关注3330和3323美元。 从之后的走势看，欧盘盘中，黄金继续震荡回升，刷新当日新高3345美元，遇阻后金价震荡回落，跌势 在美盘开盘后进一步扩大，最低跌至3314美元企稳。周三开盘，黄金进一步下探，跌至3311美元企稳， 目前价格小幅回升，暂时交投于3324美元。总体来看，黄金承压震荡，金价在我们给出的3345美元压力 位置遇阻下跌，短线波动比预期要弱。 Wolfinance星级分析师认为，本周黄金继续承压，日内刷新近三周新低，主要受到三方面的因素影响： 其一，是上周中美经贸会谈，将关税休战期限延长90天，缓解了市场对美国总统特朗普新一轮关税措施 的担忧情绪；其二，是美国总统特朗普推动俄乌领导人会晤，希望加速结束冲突，美国白宫表示俄乌领 导人双边会谈筹备中，和平谈判加 ...

1. 今日凌晨，美联储公布的7月会议纪要显示，7月会上，几乎全体决策者支持暂不降息，只有两人反对。 1、股市再度走强压制债市情绪，银行间主要利率债收益率普遍上行1-2bp左右；国债期货多数收跌，30年期主力合约跌0.35%。央行开展6160亿元逆回购操 作，净投放4975亿元，加上税期走款基本结束，流动性紧势有所缓解。 2、中国新一期LPR出炉，1年期为3.0%，5年期以上为3.5%，连续三月保持不变。 华安期货：8月21日国债建议可逢低布局多单 重要信息： 核心逻辑： 建议可逢低布局多单。 近期金融市场风险偏好回升，股债跷跷板效应明显，压制债市情绪，国债期货连续震荡偏弱。总体，随着政府债券发行规模逐步达到及度过高峰，债市供给 压力有望缓和。同时，地缘因素及贸易政策变化仍有很大变数，对全球经济格局及金融环境有潜在冲击，避险情绪利好债市。 市场展望： ...

【黄金期货行情表现】 8月20日，沪金主力暂报772.90元/克，跌幅达0.32%，今日沪金主力开盘价774.72元/克，截至目前最高 775.54元/克，最低770.38元/克。 【宏观消息】 2025年8月18日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅在新德里同印度外交部长苏杰生举行会谈。双方 就共同关心的双边、地区和国际问题进行了积极、建设性、前瞻性讨论，达成以下共识和成果。 据消息，美国总统特朗普19日说，美方将帮助乌克兰进行防卫，但不会向乌克兰派出地面部队，"这一 点我可以保证"。一名白宫官员当天证实，特朗普"强调"不会向乌克兰派兵，但美国有其他方式确保乌 克兰受到保护。报道提到，不让美军部队卷入海外冲突是特朗普去年竞选总统时的承诺之一。 特朗普同时重申，乌克兰不会获准加入北约。但按照他的说法，一些欧洲国家已经同意为乌克兰提供类 似北约所能够提供的保护措施，包括安全保障。上述白宫官员说，美国及其欧洲盟友和乌克兰将继续讨 论如何为乌克兰提供安全保障。 当地时间8月19日，欧洲理事会举行视频会议讨论乌克兰问题华盛顿会晤。欧盟外交与安全政策高级代 表卡拉斯在会后表示，欧盟领导人都致力于实现持久和平，以保护乌克兰 ...