Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.26%, S&P 500 futures down 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.42% [1] - European indices show positive performance, with Germany's DAX up 0.52%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.68%, France's CAC40 up 0.48%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.41% [2][3] Commodities - WTI crude oil is down 0.55%, trading at $62.03 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down 0.53%, trading at $65.68 per barrel [3][4] Economic Events - The US government has shut down for the first time in seven years due to Congress's failure to agree on a spending plan, affecting federal workers and delaying economic data releases [5] - The ADP employment report is expected to show an increase of approximately 60,000 jobs, becoming a focal point for labor market data this month [5] Gold Market - Gold prices have reached a historic high of $3,890 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid the government shutdown [6] Federal Reserve Insights - Market expectations indicate a high probability of interest rate cuts this month, with a 76% chance of another cut in December [6] Corporate Developments - Samsung and SK Hynix have signed a letter of intent to supply memory chips for OpenAI's data center, supporting the Stargate project [8] - Berkshire Hathaway is reportedly close to acquiring Occidental Petroleum's chemical division for approximately $10 billion, marking its largest acquisition since 2022 [8] - BHP is investing $554 million to expand its Olympic Dam copper mine in South Australia, anticipating a 70% increase in global copper demand by 2050 [9] - Tesla has raised leasing prices for all models in the US following the expiration of a $7,500 federal tax credit [9] - Nike's Q1 revenue reached $11.7 billion, slightly down but better than expected, indicating early success in its transformation plan [10]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.26%, S&P 500 futures down 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.42% [1] - European indices show positive performance, with Germany's DAX up 0.52%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.68%, France's CAC40 up 0.48%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.41% [2][3] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil is down 0.55%, trading at $62.03 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down 0.53%, trading at $65.68 per barrel [3][4] Economic Events - The US government has shut down for the first time in seven years due to Congress's failure to agree on a spending plan, affecting federal workers and public services [5] - The ADP employment report is expected to show an increase of approximately 60,000 jobs, becoming the focus of labor market data for the month [5] Gold Market - Gold prices have reached a new historical high of $3,890 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid the government shutdown [6] Federal Reserve Insights - The market is pricing in a high probability of interest rate cuts this month, with a 76% chance of another cut in December [6] Corporate News - Samsung and SK Hynix have signed a letter of intent to supply memory chips for OpenAI's data center, supporting the Stargate project [9] - Berkshire Hathaway is reportedly close to acquiring Occidental Petroleum's chemical division for approximately $10 billion, marking its largest acquisition since 2022 [9] - BHP is investing $554 million to expand its Olympic Dam copper mine in South Australia, anticipating a 70% increase in global copper demand by 2050 [10] - Tesla has raised leasing prices for all models in the US following the expiration of a $7,500 federal tax credit [10] - Nike's Q1 revenue was $11.7 billion, slightly down but better than expected, indicating early success in its business transformation [11]

Core Insights - International gold prices have reached new highs, with London gold surpassing $3,895 per ounce and COMEX gold exceeding $3,900 per ounce, marking a historical record [1][3][9] Market Trends - The rising international gold prices have led to an increase in gold jewelry prices, coinciding with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, resulting in a surge in gold consumption [3][4] - In Shenzhen's Shui Bei market, gold jewelry prices have risen to approximately 888 yuan per gram, up from around 796 yuan per gram in early September, indicating a significant price increase [6][8] Consumer Behavior - Many consumers are currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding gold purchases, despite the high prices, which presents challenges for retailers in terms of inventory management [7][8] - Retailers are adopting a strategy of purchasing gold based on sales to mitigate risks associated with high inventory costs [7] Profit Margins - The gross profit margins for gold jewelry are reported to be between 10% to 20% for weight-based pricing, while "one-price" gold jewelry can achieve margins of 30% to 40% [7] Market Outlook - The World Gold Council's report suggests that gold consumption in China may continue to face pressure due to low consumer confidence and high prices, although seasonal improvements and potential policy support could provide some relief [8] - Analysts predict further increases in gold prices, with UBS forecasting a rise to $4,200 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by factors such as a weaker dollar and increased central bank purchases [9]

来源：视觉中国 美东时间10月1日0时，联邦政府时隔近7年再度陷入"停摆"。此前一天，国会两党议员在医保福利方面 的分歧无法弥合，未能就新的临时拨款法案达成一致。 除军事等核心职能之外的政府项目等都将暂停。停摆波及社会保障、税务服务、签证申请、国家公园、 博物馆等联邦层面的公共服务。每天可能有大约75万联邦雇员被迫休假，涉及薪酬总成本约为4亿美 元。 欧盟金融券商XTB研究主管布鲁克斯（Kathleen Brooks）指出，尽管股市已充分消化了政府关门的负面 预期，美股指数也预示着今天开盘会走高，但金价大涨仍表达了市场的担忧。 鉴于美国政府停摆持续，不少分析师都预期，未来数日，金价将很快升破4000美元/盎司这一关键心理 关口。瑞银集团指出，按此趋势发展，金价还可能在2026年年中升至4200美元。 另一方面，此次美国国会拨款僵局，叠加美联储宽松预期强化、中东等地缘政治紧张加剧避险需求，成 为本轮黄金价格潜在的推动力。 对财政赤字和不可持续的政府支出的担忧加剧了市场的不确定性、削弱美元、增加黄金作为避险资产的 吸引力。9月30日早些时候，纽约期金就站上3900美元/盎司，续创历史新高。今年以来，金价上涨超过 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have risen for four consecutive days, reaching a historic high of $3,875.53 per ounce, driven by traders preparing for a potential U.S. government shutdown, which may increase demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by over 47%, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [1] - Central bank purchases and increased holdings in gold ETFs following the Federal Reserve's resumption of interest rate cuts have supported the rise in gold prices [1] - September saw the highest monthly inflow into gold ETFs in three years, according to Bloomberg data [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Commentary - Boston Fed President Susan Collins indicated that further rate cuts may be appropriate this year due to a weak labor market, while cautioning about persistent inflation risks [1] - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson warned of the dual pressures of a cooling labor market and rising inflation, complicating the economic outlook [1] Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - As of the report, spot gold prices increased by 0.3% to $3,872.21 per ounce, following a 0.7% rise on Tuesday [1] - Silver prices rose by 1.7% to $47.4317 per ounce after a previous decline of 0.6% [1] - Both platinum and palladium prices also experienced increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in spot gold prices, which fell by 1%, reflects a market adjustment to Federal Reserve policy expectations and a temporary increase in investor risk appetite [1][2]. Market Review - On September 30, during European trading hours, spot gold prices experienced a significant decline, with a daily drop of 1%. The past week saw increased volatility in gold prices, indicating fluctuating market sentiment [2][10]. Driving Factors Analysis - **Strengthening Dollar and Interest Rate Expectations**: Recent robust U.S. economic data has led to a decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, resulting in a stronger dollar and higher 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which have pressured gold prices [4]. - **Rising Risk Appetite**: The performance of risk assets, such as U.S. stocks and certain emerging market indices, has improved, leading to a recovery in investor sentiment and reduced demand for gold [5]. - **Technical Factors**: Gold faced resistance near key levels, with intensified trading activity leading to a 1% drop, potentially exacerbated by technical selling and stop-loss orders [6]. - **Temporary Easing of Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Variables**: A decrease in market focus on certain geopolitical risks has weakened the buying momentum for gold as a safe-haven asset [7]. Market Interpretation and Investor Sentiment - Market participants exhibit divided interpretations, with some institutions noting limited changes in gold ETF holdings, suggesting that long-term capital has not significantly exited the market, and that short-term fluctuations may be more emotional adjustments [8]. Future Outlook and Key Focus Areas - The future trajectory of gold prices will largely depend on: 1. The Federal Reserve's policy direction [9] 2. Potential declines in U.S. inflation and economic data over the coming months, which could lead to renewed expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting gold prices [9]. Conclusion - The recent 1% decline in spot gold prices indicates significant short-term pressure from a strengthening dollar and rising interest rate expectations. However, gold retains its strategic value as a long-term safe-haven and store of value, warranting a broader examination of global macro trends and risk dynamics rather than solely focusing on short-term price movements [12].

Core Viewpoint - The political deadlock in the U.S. Congress over funding has heightened market anxiety, pushing gold prices above $3,800 per ounce, with a peak at $3,871 [1][2][8]. Group 1: Government Shutdown and Market Impact - The U.S. government is on the brink of a shutdown, with existing funding set to expire on Wednesday, leading to potential furloughs for hundreds of thousands of federal employees and disruptions in public services [2][5]. - The failure of negotiations between President Trump and congressional leaders has resulted in a hardening of positions, with both parties blaming each other for the impasse [2][4][6]. - Concerns over the uncertainty in the U.S. political system, combined with a weakening dollar, have driven investors towards gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [2][8]. Group 2: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have surged by 45% this year, driven by factors beyond short-term hedging, including high government debt, persistent inflation, and doubts about the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency [9]. - The imminent government shutdown has acted as a catalyst for the latest surge in gold prices [9]. - Institutional and central bank buying has also contributed to the rise in gold prices, with significant inflows into gold ETFs and record net long positions by speculative investors [10].

在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出 更优质的内容。 文|昕昕 前言 最近白银价格真的是一路狂飙，突破46.64美元，创下14年来的最高点！ 为啥白银这么强势？ 白银为啥一路狂飙 首先得感谢美国的通胀数据：8月PCE物价指数同比上涨2.7%，核心PCE同比上涨2.9%，和预期一致， 市场心里其实挺有底。 通胀数据温和，大家都松了口气，纷纷猜测美联储会不会在年内降息。 你想嘛，降息就意味着白银这种避险资产更有吸引力，买买买，价格自然就上去了！ 然后再来一波不确定性的加持，美国政府也可能因为拨款法案没通过，出现部分关门的风险。你说这不 是给了白银一个绝佳的避险机会吗？一场"政府关门"危机，你敢赌美国政府不关门，市场都不敢站稳脚 跟，所以投资者们直接用白银来保命，顺便赚点儿"关门"溢价。 总统特朗普现在正在与国会领导人讨论如何解决政府资金问题，若谈不拢，10月1号政府可能会停摆。 各位想象一下：连政府都可能关门了，股市的投资者肯定不敢轻易下注，于是白银这种避险资产就大放 异彩，吸引了大批人抄底。 就是那种"先到先得"的感觉，你迟到就没份儿了。 再看美元，美元指数（DXY ...

9月30日，现货黄金价格继续维持上涨趋势，现货黄金向上触及3850美元/盎司，续创历史新高，日内涨 0.42%。 黄金表现亮眼，背后有多重因素影响。 国际金价，又涨了。 世界黄金协会表示，来自美国的风险是近期金价上涨的主要推手。 据每日经济新闻报道，来自华尔街的交易员表示，特朗普政府的关门危机是一个重要因素。分析认为， 市场担心美国政府可能停摆，这或许会推迟本周关键就业数据的发布，并给美联储的货币政策路径蒙上 阴影。 自2025年1月特朗普再度当选美国总统以后，受关税政策、美国经济前景变化、美元走弱，还有特朗普 政府对美联储的持续施压等因素的影响，市场避险情绪急剧升温，不断将黄金价格推向高峰。 特朗普政府2.0时代，国际金价屡创历史新高，目前已累计上涨近45%，是全球表现最好的主流资产。 "新债王"、双线资本首席执行官兼首席投资官杰弗里·冈拉克预测，金价将在今年年底前达到每盎司 4000美元。高盛甚至认为，金价在极端情况下，未来可能会涨至5000美元。 特朗普政府与金价 自2025年1月上台以来，特朗普政府内外政策共同作用，推动国际金价飙涨。 先是摇摆不定的关税政策。 在降息政策落地后，现货黄金价格快速上冲至 ...

基本面： 整体来看，若停摆危机化解且经济数据持续强劲，金价可能面临短期回调；但若不确定性持续或地缘冲突升级，黄金牛市仍有较大空间。交易者本周将重点 关注包括非农在内的一系列美国就业数据。 技术面： 日线级别，金价昨日续录得大阳线收盘彰显强势，至尾盘时段报收至日内最高3833美元附近暗示短期仍有可观空间，或有望继续发散强劲势头挑战下一整百 关口3900一线。1--4小时级别，短线走势自此前3630附近获得支撑再度起涨至当前局面，多头仍保持较匀速上攻态势屡次创高，隔夜盘中一度击穿3800关口 后继续加强，至当前亚盘时段多头已挑战至3850一线仍未现乏力。交易者日内或保守看待短期走势以尝试回落多单为主，上方关注3870/3890附近潜在测试 风险。 周二（9月30日）亚盘时段，现货黄金延续走高并进一步创下历史性高位至3850.77美元/盎司，目前暂交投于3846美元附近。周一（9月29日）现货黄金价格 首次突破每盎司3800美元大关，最终收于3833.73美元，单日暴涨1.9%。为8月1日以来最大单日涨幅，这场看似突然的爆发，实则是货币政策预期、政治风 险与地缘冲突三大风暴共同催化的必然结果。当投资者还在股市中挣扎 ...