Core Viewpoint - The current global economic adjustment necessitates a shift in China's growth model towards domestic demand, with a focus on enhancing service consumption as a key driver of economic activity [1] Group 1: Financial Support for Service Consumption - The People's Bank of China has announced the establishment of 500 billion yuan in loans for service consumption and elderly care, aimed at encouraging financial institutions to increase support for key areas in service consumption and the elderly industry [1] - China's financial support for service consumption is well-established, with a multi-tiered consumer finance service system involving banks, consumer finance companies, and auto finance companies, providing crucial support for stable market development [1] - Financial institutions are innovating diverse consumer credit products and service models around specific consumption scenarios, such as trade-in programs and winter sports, effectively stimulating market vitality [1] Group 2: Challenges in Consumer Credit Market - The consumer credit market faces challenges, including underutilization of credit demand among certain groups, standardization and homogenization of credit products, high service costs, and difficulties in risk management [1][2] - Structural contradictions in the consumption sector remain prominent, with gaps in personalized and high-quality supply in areas such as cultural tourism, elderly care, and healthcare, as well as inadequate infrastructure and logistics in county-level service consumption [1] Group 3: Recommendations for Financial Product Development - There is a need to construct a financial product and service system that aligns with consumer demand, expanding high-quality financial supply in the consumption sector to create a mutually empowering and deeply integrated development model between consumption and finance [2] - Monetary policy should implement a moderately loose stance, utilizing structural monetary policy tools to guide financial institutions in meeting diverse funding needs across various sectors [2] - Financial regulatory bodies should develop guiding documents to enhance consumer finance services, focusing on high-quality supply in key service consumption areas and increasing financial support for infrastructure and trade circulation systems [2] Group 4: Optimizing Credit Products and Services - Financial institutions should optimize credit products and services around key scenarios, strategies, and target demographics, ensuring risk control and cost coverage while enhancing consumer credit support [3] - The integration of digital finance can facilitate the embedding of credit services into various consumption scenarios, allowing consumers to meet immediate consumption needs through more convenient and flexible payment methods [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's consumption market is showing stable growth, driven by effective policies and promotional activities [1][2] - In April, retail sales of goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with a 0.5 percentage point acceleration compared to the first quarter [2] - The "old for new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, particularly in home appliances, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% [2] Group 2 - The digital product subsidy policy has led to a notable increase in sales, with 48.8 million consumers purchasing 51.48 million digital products, generating sales of 143.26 billion yuan [1] - From January to April, retail sales of communication equipment increased by 25.4% year-on-year, ranking first among 16 categories of consumer goods [1] - The sales of new energy passenger vehicles surged by 33.9% in April, achieving a penetration rate of 51.5% [2] Group 3 - Online consumption is steadily growing, with online retail sales increasing by 7.7% year-on-year, and physical goods online retail sales growing by 5.8%, accounting for 24.3% of total retail sales [2] - E-commerce is enhancing domestic circulation and international cooperation, with significant contributions to improving consumption quality [2][3] - The integration of industrial e-commerce is facilitating foreign trade and domestic sales, with over 3,100 foreign trade enterprises participating in online activities, generating over 1.1 billion yuan in sales [3]

Economic Overview - The first quarter economic data from China indicates a positive signal, with a notable recovery in the consumer market, laying a solid foundation for the annual economic performance [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.4671 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - In March, retail sales grew by 5.9% year-on-year, an acceleration of 1.9 percentage points compared to January-February, with a month-on-month growth of 0.58% [1] Financial Technology Companies Performance - Four Chinese financial technology companies focusing on consumer credit—Xiaoying Technology, Xinyi Technology, Lexin, and Qifu Technology—reported strong growth in their first-quarter financial results, reflecting the role of consumer finance in boosting consumption [1][2] - Xiaoying Technology reported a revenue of 1.938 billion yuan and a total loan facilitation of 35.149 billion yuan in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, with a loan balance of 58.403 billion yuan [2][3] - Xinyi Technology achieved a revenue of 3.481 billion yuan and a net profit of 738 million yuan, with a total transaction amount of 52.1 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [3][4] - Lexin's first-quarter revenue reached 3.1 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP EBIT of 580 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 104.7% [4] - Qifu Technology reported a net income of 4.691 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.94%, with a total loan facilitation of 88.883 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.8% [5] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The performance of financial technology companies is attributed to the recovery of the consumer market and the significant role of consumer credit in stimulating consumption [6] - Despite the positive first-quarter data, uncertainties remain regarding the sustainability and strength of the consumption recovery, with underlying issues such as income growth and consumer confidence needing further attention [6][7] - Recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and expanding domestic demand have shown initial effectiveness, contributing to the overall economic stabilization [2][6] - The focus on service consumption as a key area for future economic stimulus reflects the government's commitment to enhancing consumer spending [6][7]

Core Insights - The online retail sales in China grew by 7.7% from January to April, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [1] - The 7th Double Goods Shopping Festival focused on enhancing consumption through new supply of quality brands and benefiting people's livelihoods [1] - Digital consumption is accelerating, with online sales of digital products increasing by 8.4%, particularly in smart robots and smart home systems, which saw growth rates of 87.6% and 16% respectively [1] Retail Sector Performance - The trade-in program for old products is gaining traction, with online sales of 15 categories of home appliances and digital products rising by 11.5%, and specifically, the sales of three categories of expanded digital products, including mobile phones, increased by 18.5% [1] Service Consumption Growth - Service consumption is leading the growth, driven by policy initiatives, supply optimization, and holiday economic factors, with monitored online service consumption growing by 12.1% [1] - Online entertainment and online travel sectors experienced significant growth, with increases of 31.9% and 25.4% respectively [1]

Core Insights - Shanghai's per capita GDP has exceeded $30,000 in 2024, indicating strong potential for service consumption growth as the service consumption ratio is still below 50% [1][7] - The Shanghai government has launched a comprehensive "Consumption Promotion Action Plan" to enhance consumer spending and support economic development [1][4] - Shanghai maintains its position as China's "Consumption First City," with the highest retail sales and disposable income per capita in the country [2] Group 1: Economic and Consumption Trends - The "Consumption Promotion Action Plan" emphasizes six key actions, including increasing residents' income, enhancing consumption capacity, and upgrading service consumption [1][4] - Shanghai's retail sales and disposable income have consistently ranked first in the nation for 11 years, showcasing its status as a leading consumer market [2] - The shift from goods consumption to service consumption is accelerating, with service consumption expected to become dominant as GDP per capita rises [7][9] Group 2: Income and Welfare Initiatives - The plan prioritizes income and welfare improvements, focusing on employment stability and social security enhancements to support consumer confidence [3][4] - Specific measures include implementing job support plans, promoting skills training, and enhancing social welfare systems to address the needs of the aging population [5][4] Group 3: Service Consumption and New Consumption Models - The action plan outlines initiatives to boost service consumption, including developing cultural and tourism sectors, and enhancing the quality of life services [8][9] - New consumption models such as digital entertainment, health consumption, and night economy are being promoted to align with modern consumer trends [9][10] Group 4: Major Consumption Updates - The plan includes strategies for updating major consumer goods, such as automobiles and home appliances, through trade-in and subsidy programs [12][11] - Shanghai aims to innovate in real estate development to meet housing demands, focusing on safety, comfort, and sustainability [13][11] Group 5: Future Directions and Internationalization - The plan highlights the need for Shanghai to enhance its international influence and consumer market integration, aiming for a more globalized consumption landscape [10][14] - The city is encouraged to leverage its unique advantages to reform and optimize the consumption ecosystem, promoting high-quality economic development [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Government has introduced a comprehensive "Consumption Promotion Action Plan" aimed at boosting consumer spending and enhancing the overall consumption environment in the city, aligning with national strategies to stimulate domestic demand and economic growth [1][5][10]. Group 1: Six Major Actions - The plan includes six major actions: increasing urban and rural residents' income, ensuring consumer capacity support, upgrading service consumption quality, renewing bulk consumption, cultivating new types of consumption, and enhancing the consumption environment [1][12]. Group 2: Urban and Rural Residents' Income Increase - The action plan emphasizes an employment-first strategy, enhancing skills training, and promoting reasonable income growth through targeted support for key sectors and small businesses [2][13]. Group 3: Consumer Capacity Support - Measures include increasing support for childbirth and childcare, optimizing elderly care services, and improving the social security system to enhance consumer capacity [2][15]. Group 4: Service Consumption Quality Upgrade - The plan aims to create a cultural consumption hub, develop a world-renowned tourism city, and promote the integration of cultural, tourism, and sports sectors to enhance service consumption quality [2][16]. Group 5: Bulk Consumption Renewal - Shanghai will implement initiatives for trade-in programs for consumer goods and better meet housing consumption needs through updated policies [3][17]. Group 6: New Type of Consumption Cultivation - The plan focuses on fostering cutting-edge digital consumption, including the development of "AI + consumption" scenarios and enhancing the supply for the aging population [3][18]. Group 7: Consumption Environment Enhancement - Key initiatives include strengthening consumer rights protection, optimizing consumption facilities, and creating a tourist-friendly city to improve the overall consumption environment [3][20]. Group 8: Support Policies - The action plan outlines the need for coordinated policies to support consumption, emphasizing the role of fiscal and financial measures in driving consumer spending [5][21].

Group 1 - The core issue of service consumption recovery is that it is slower compared to goods consumption, with a significant gap in service consumption tendency compared to historical trends, indicating that income may not be the primary constraint on service recovery [2][8][107] - In 2024, the gap in per capita service consumption compared to historical trends is 2,093 yuan (13.9%), while the gap for goods consumption is only 458 yuan (2.9%) [2][8][107] - The increase in working hours, averaging 6 hours and 23 minutes per day in 2023, has reduced leisure time, which is crucial for service consumption [2][19][107] Group 2 - The increase in working hours has led to a concentration of consumption during holidays, but the legal holiday days are relatively few, with only 18 days mandated for 2025, significantly lower than Japan and South Korea [3][30][108] - The service sector is a non-trade sector, and insufficient effective supply will constrain the recovery of service consumption more than that of goods consumption [4][49][109] - Employment in the service sector has decreased compared to historical trends, indicating an excess supply gap, particularly in life services such as education and entertainment [4][60][109] Group 3 - The lack of entrepreneur confidence is a significant constraint on service supply, with high industry costs and increased debt pressure contributing to this issue [6][110][111] - Investment in the service sector, especially in life services, has not kept pace with profitability, indicating a cautious investment behavior among entrepreneurs [6][90][110] - The shift in investment logic from proactive to reactive, driven by profitability, has led to a slowdown in investment growth, particularly in the health and education sectors [7][90][110]

Group 1: Service Consumption Recovery - Service consumption recovery is slower compared to goods consumption, with a per capita service consumption gap of 2,093 yuan (13.9%) compared to historical trends, while goods consumption gap is only 458 yuan (2.9%) and optional goods consumption gap is 450 yuan (6.2%) [3] - The increase in working hours has led to a reduction in leisure time, with average paid labor time increasing by 2 hours daily, resulting in a weekly average of 44.7 hours in 2023, which is 13.9 hours more than in 2018 [3][21] - The concentration of consumption during holidays is increasing, with holiday sales growth of 6.8% during the 2024 May Day holiday, compared to a mere 3.7% for the same month’s retail sales [26] Group 2: Supply Constraints in Service Consumption - Insufficient effective supply in the service sector is causing slower recovery compared to goods consumption, with service employment numbers falling 3.8% below historical trends in 2023 [4][35] - The core service prices have been rising since 2022, indicating tighter supply compared to core goods prices, which are recovering better [4][35] - The supply recovery in life services, particularly in education and entertainment, is lagging, with employment in these sectors down by 6% and 2.8% respectively compared to historical trends [5][40] Group 3: Causes of Supply Constraints - Weak entrepreneur confidence is a significant factor limiting service supply, with investment in life services not keeping pace with profit margins, as seen in the entertainment sector with a sales profit margin of only 1.1% [6][53] - The cost rates in life services are high, with education and resident services at 109.4% and 104.8% respectively, reflecting a 15% and 13% increase since 2019 [7][63] - The cash flow ratio for the entertainment sector has decreased to an average of 19.8% in 2023-2024, indicating increased cash flow pressure and limiting supply expansion willingness [7][63]

5月21日，港股市场今日走势冲高回落，国潮服装、汽车、传媒、短视频等大消费方向涨势居前。港股 消费指数成份股中，中升控股、安踏体育涨超6%，华晨中国、阅文集团涨超5%，哔哩哔哩-W、理想汽 车、中国儒意、比亚迪股份涨超3%。港股消费ETF（159735）过去5个交易日资金净流入超2000万元， 市场热度较高。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪港股消费指数，是"更新的消费"，相较A股消费以白酒高端消费为主，港 股消费板块中电商、消费电子、新能源车、餐饮、旅游、文娱传媒、国潮服装等新型消费比例更高，服 务消费和大众消费占比也更高，或更能充分反映本轮大力提振消费政策驱动下的消费景气复苏。 消息面上，商务部相关负责人介绍，消费品以旧换新拉升一季度社零总额增速1.6个百分点，有力推动 经济持续回升向好。其中，通讯器材、文化办公用品、家电、家具零售额同比分别增长26.9%、 21.7%、19.3%和18.1%。据汽车流通协会数据，一季度乘用车零售量同比增长5.8%，其中新能源乘用车 零售量增长36.4%，渗透率达47.2%。3月份，部分重点监测企业智能家居产品销售额同比增长10%以 上。 相关产品：港股消费ETF（15 ...

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand, particularly through consumer demand, as a key component of Xi Jinping's economic thought [1][5] - China's economic advantage lies in its internal circulation, with a population of over 1.4 billion and a per capita GDP exceeding $13,000, indicating significant potential for consumer market growth [1] - The first volume of "Selected Works of Xi Jinping" discusses the implementation of the strategy to expand domestic demand, which is crucial for promoting high-quality economic development and meeting the needs of the people [1] Group 2 - Adapting to the trend of consumption structure upgrading is essential, with a focus on innovating consumption formats and creating new growth points in service consumption [2] - In developed economies, once per capita GDP exceeds $10,000, the average growth rate of consumer spending slows, shifting from quantity to structural upgrades, with service consumption accounting for over 50% of total consumption [2] - By 2024, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure to total per capita consumption expenditure in China is projected to reach 46.1% [2] Group 3 - Meeting the actual needs of different income groups through high-quality supply can lead to the creation of new demand [3] - China's large-scale market advantage allows for a more segmented and diversified consumption market, necessitating a focus on enriching service offerings in culture, entertainment, healthcare, and education [3] - The digital transformation of consumer goods manufacturing and the promotion of flexible and intelligent production models are crucial for responding to diverse consumer demands [3] Group 4 - There is a significant potential in rural consumption, with an emphasis on tapping into county and township consumption to stimulate new growth engines [4] - Recent years have seen a gradual narrowing of the urban-rural development gap, with rural residents' disposable income and consumption expenditure growth rates surpassing those of urban residents [4] - By 2024, the retail sales of consumer goods in counties and townships are expected to account for 38.8% of total retail sales, an increase of 4.8 percentage points since 2012 [4] Group 5 - Establishing a long-term mechanism to expand resident consumption is vital for fully unleashing consumption potential [5] - The domestic market will increasingly dominate the national economic cycle, with the internal demand potential continuously being released [5] - Economic policies should focus on improving livelihoods and promoting consumption, optimizing income distribution, and enhancing consumer rights protection to create a sustainable growth mechanism for consumption [5]